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[9:45 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 – Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants
WSH: Anibal Sanchez – R (6-6, 3.80 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
SF: Conner Menez – L (0-0, 3.60 ERA/1.00 WHIP)
The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Giants-Nationals game. We’re going with the under on this one, considering the game will be played in extreme pitching conditions.
We all know Oracle Park as one of, if not, the worst venues for offense in baseball. However, things get even worse towards the end of the season with the temperatures dropping like crazy by the bay. The forecast temperatures in the low-60s, moving into the upper-50s as day turns to night. These lower temperatures cause the ball to have a lot less carry to it.
Also, if you see that the wind is blowing out at 11 mph – it doesn’t matter. Oracle Park is designed in a way so that whether the wind is blowing towards the plate or the outfield, it has no effect whatsoever.
As for the game itself, Anibal Sanchez will probably be the guy we rely on more. It’s quite surprising, but he’s actually allowed three runs or fewer in 17 of his 20 starts this season. Sanchez has a great history against the Giants, going 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA in seven lifetime starts, and even more impressive is his 3-0 record and 0.58 ERA in four starts at Oracle Park – two of which, were complete-game shutouts.
The Giants offense has sputtered after a great stretch of games throughout late-June and early-July. Over the last 21 days, they own a dreadful .303 weighted on-base average and .103 ISO (power metric) against right-handed pitching.
What’s even more surprising is the Nationals inability to hit left-handed pitching in recent games. After tearing them up at the beginning of the season, Washington now owns .278 weighted on-base average and .109 ISO numbers over the last 21 days against lefties.
Conner Menez made his MLB debut back on July 21, allowing two runs over five innings against the Mets. He was sent back down to the minors after that start, but a lot of these Giants execs have done nothing but gloat about the kid.
We’re probably not looking at Menez pitching the game of his life, but it’s all about moderation here. A similar performance to his MLB debut, allowing two runs in five innings before handing it off to the bullpen, is what we should expect.
Giants games have gone under the total in eight of the last 11 games – with one push – and a good amount of those came on the road. Look for them to struggle once again and the Nationals to add just a couple more runs to get the win.
* Final Score Prediction * Washington Nationals: 3 – San Francisco Giants: 1