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SD: Dinelson Lamet – R (1-2, 3.86 ERA/1.26 WHIP)
PHI: Zach Eflin – R (7-11, 4.49 ERA/1.37 WHIP)
The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day is the Phillies winning over the Padres. Philly is one of the hottest teams in baseball right now with four straight wins, scoring 30 runs over that stretch. San Diego has lost four of its last five games.
Zach Eflin could very well be the key to this victory tonight. After all, he’s pitched much better of late since going to the bullpen and this will be his first start since the move. Eflin had a string of bad outings against quality opponents like the Braves, Dodgers and Mets, but the Padres team he’ll be facing tonight has woeful .274 weighted on-base average, .151 ISO (power metric) and 34% K-rate numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.
When looking at this matchup, Vegas is giving a bit more credit to Dinelson Lamet than it should. Granted, he is one of the talented up-and-coming arms in baseball, but Lamet does have control issues from time-to-time and hasn’t really gone that deep into games since returning from a 15-month layoff from Tommy John surgery.
As we mentioned at the top, Philly’s offense is rocking and rolling right now and this comes just a few days after former Phillies coach Charlie Manuel took over as the new hitting coach. Philly has been solid in general against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, posting .349 xwOBA (quality of contact) numbers – their .305 weighted on-base average in that time frame shows how unlucky they had been, and now that success has finally come around.
This could very well end up being a close game, but the value we’re getting on Philly is just too much to pass up. Look for this game to get off to a slow start offensively, but the Phils to take control late and come out victorious.
* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – San Diego Padres: 2