MLB Betting Value Picks for Easter Sunday, April 21

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

MLB Betting Value Picks

[2:20 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs
ARZ: Robbie Ray – L (0-1, 4.64 ERA)
CHC: Tyler Chatwood – R (0-0, 6.00 ERA)

The bullpens for the D-Backs (5.35) and Cubs (5.22) have the third- and fourth-worst ERAs in baseball. So why the hell have we seen the first two games of this series go under? Wind, damnit! In each of the first two games, the wind was howling in from left field at about 15-17 mph on Friday and Saturday. We should have a different story today, though, with the winds getting out of left field at about 7-10 mph during the game.

Robbie Ray has excellent strikeout ability but did allow four or more walks in three of his four starts this season. The Cubs’ offense has brutal numbers lifetime against Ray, but this is a much different lefty than they’ve seen in the past.

Tyler Chatwood is absolutely terrible. While we shouldn’t see too much of him, this guy’s time on the mound can usually be quite efficient for opposing offenses. Chatwood never has good control and you almost guarantee that ducks will be on the pond all day for D-Backs’ hitters.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 7 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 6 * 

[4:07 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
SEA: Mike Leake – R (2-1, 3.86 ERA)
LAA: Jaime Barria – R (1-1, 5.87 ERA)

Mike Leake is allowing plenty of baserunners (at least seven in all of four starts), but he has done a fine job of limiting the damage, surrendering only two runs each in three of those four starts. Well, that luck may run out today, because Leake is facing an Angels’ roster that has a collective .354 batting average and .937 OPS against him.

Jaime Barria is a pitcher who I’ve had absolutely zero faith in since he made his MLB debut last season. He’s a soft-tossing righty that seems to get away with a ton of mistakes, and that’ll be a lot harder to do today against a potent Mariners offense. The Angels’ bullpen does have the fourth-best ERA (3.36) in the American League this season but the hope is that the Mariners tee off on Barria quite a bit before we see them.

* Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners: 7 – Los Angeles Angels: 4 * 

[7:00 p.m. EST] Under 8 – Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Indians
ATL: Max Fried – L (2-0, 0.92 ERA)
CLE: Shane Bieber – R (2-0, 1.71 ERA)

Max Fried and Shane Bieber have been two of the season’s most pleasant surprises, and now they’ll have the chance to go toe-to-toe against one another on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. It’s interesting that both guys actually made their season debuts out of the bullpen, but now they’re front and center doing big things for their respective team’s rotations.

With the two teams playing a doubleheader yesterday, look for each guy to collect their usual quality outing of at least six innings, and possibly even get an additional one to let the bullpen get some extra rest.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 3 – Atlanta Braves: 2 *