MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, April 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[7:40 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 –  St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (-130)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (0-1, 2.79 ERA)
MIL: Freddy Peralta – R (1-0, 6.91 ERA)

This will be the Redbirds’ second trip to Milwaukee already this season, and it didn’t go too well for them the first time around. The Brewers ended up winning three of the four games in that series and our Trend Confidence rating has them as the most likely team to win on the MLB slate tonight. Not to mention, the over in this game is the strongest overall play that we have on the board.

Dakota Hudson takes the hill for St. Louis, and he has put a ton of guys on base in each of his two starts this season. That’s just not a recipe for success against a Milwaukee lineup that has talent up and down the order. The Brewers are finally back home (where they are 5-2) after a tough, but short, West coast trip against the Angels and Dodgers. Look for the Brew Crew to take advantage of those extra baserunners and give Hudson more headaches.

Freddy Peralta will be starting for Milwaukee, and he has been equally as bad as Hudson. In fact, Peralta only lasted three innings in his season debut against these same Cardinals, allowing six hits, three walks and four runs.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 8 – St. Louis Cardinals: 6 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
KC: Heath Fillmyer – R (0-0, 15.00 ERA)
CHW: Ervin Santana – R (0-1, 17.18 ERA)

Yes, those ERAs you see above are correct — that’s a combined 32.18 between the two of them. Yikes!

I’m going with the over in this game, considering the White Sox have hit that mark in 10 of their 14 games this season, while the Royals have done the same in 11 of their 15 games. That, coupled with the fact that both pitchers are struggling out of the gate, makes this a good night to see plenty of runs crossing the plate.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 9 – Kansas City Royals: 8 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Cincinnati Reds (+146) at Los Angeles Dodgers
CIN: Luis Castillo – R (1-1, 0.92 ERA)
LAD: Clayton Kershaw – L (season debut)

Very, very interesting matchup at Chavez Ravine as Clayton Kershaw will make his season debut against a very talented pitcher in Luis Castillo. I’m taking the upset here and rolling with the Reds, who have a few guys making a homecoming of sorts. Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig should be ultra-motivated after getting shipped from beautiful Los Angeles to… well, Cincinnati. Be honest, you’d be upset too.

It’s quite interesting that the Dodgers don’t have a higher moneyline number, especially with Kershaw toeing the rubber. Granted, it’ll be his first start of the season, but this is just too noticeable of a number for me not to land on. Castillo has been fantastic early on with 25 strikeouts and only two runs allowed over 19 2/3 innings. A lot of people around baseball might not be too familiar with Castillo, but they certainly will be when the night is over.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 3 – Los Angeles Dodgers: 2 *