MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, April 8


By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

MLB Value Betting Picks for Monday, April 8

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10 – Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles
OAK: Marco Estrada – R (0-0, 2.76 ERA)
BAL: Andrew Cashner – R (1-1, 5.40 ERA)

Runs, runs, everyone loves some fun! If the last series against the Yankees was any indication of how bad Orioles’ pitching has been, fans sitting in the Camden Yards’ outfield tonight better bring their mitts to the stadium.

Both sides have seen their Implied Run Total (IRT) increase greatly since the opening lines came out, and that’s a telling sign when looking for offense on the slate. In fact, Oakland’s IRT jumped 0.6 runs (Baltimore at +0.4) since the open, which is the second-highest increase of any team today. Reason being, the A’s have seen Cashner very well over the course of their careers – specifically, Kendrys Morales (6-for-10, 3 HR, 2 BB, 0 K) and Khris Davis (6-for-17, 1 HR). The current roster actually has a combined .354 batting average and 1.078 OPS against Cashner over his career. Not to mention, the Orioles’ bullpen has allowed the most runs (36) in all of MLB this season.

Six of Baltimore’s nine games have gone over the total this season and this is shaping up to be another high-scoring affair. The SK value system has a +36% Trend Confidence in this one going over 12.5 runs, so that should blow right past the current total.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics: 12 – Baltimore Orioles: 4

[8:15 p.m. EST] Over 10 –  Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals
SEA: Felix Hernandez – R (1-0, 1.69 ERA)
KC: Homer Bailey – R (0-0, 5.40 ERA)

Sure, “King” Felix had a solid debut to the 2019 season, but we should remember that he’s typically been a much better pitcher at home over the course of his career. This is a pitcher that is clearly on a downward slope and Vegas has recognized that, giving KC the highest IRT increase (+0.7) on the entire slate.

Seattle has been rocking and rolling on offense, scoring the most runs (85) of any team in MLB, but they have also committed the most errors in the league as well. That, coupled with the fact that Homer Bailey will be on the mound for KC, makes this a great play on the over. Certainly going to have a few cleats touching home plate tonight!

* Final Score Prediction: Kansas City Royals: 10 – Seattle Mariners: 9

[9:45 p.m. EST] Under 7 – San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
SD: Eric Lauer – L (1-1, 3.27 ERA)
SF: Madison Bumgarner – L (0-2, 1.38 ERA)

We’ve got a fantastic matchup of southpaw dealers at Oracle Park tonight as Bumgarner and Lauer take the hill. It’s interesting to note that MadBum has never started his career 0-3, which looks him squarely in the eye tonight. I’d expect him to know this and take that as a personal challenge, thus leading to an epic performance.

Lauer is a very underrated pitcher that people will learn about sooner than later, but his last start didn’t fare too well against the D-Backs. He did, however, skill the Giants on Opening Day, allowing only four hits and one walk over six innings while striking out three hitters. Lauer’s ability, and the Giants’ lack of offense, set the stage for a low-scoring pitcher’s duel in San Francisco.

Bettors on the under would be fascinated to know that each of the first four matchups between these teams have landed on the under.

* Final Score Prediction: San Francisco Giants: 3 – San Diego Padres: 2