MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, July 1

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 127-109-4 (53.8%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 10 (-104) –  Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
MIL: Adrian Houser – R (2-2, 2.94 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
CIN: Tyler Mahle – R (2-8, 4.35 ERA/1.22 WHIP)

We’re only going to see Adrian Houser for a few innings, but he should get us well on our way to hitting the under tonight. Despite a rough outing in his last appearance, Houser has allowed one run or fewer in 14 of his 17 appearances this season.

Coming behind Houser is the Milwaukee bullpen, which has the fifth-best ERA (3.08) over the last 14 days. In any event, we’re probably going to see Josh Hader enter the game at some point. That’s two innings of pure shut-down baseball. The electric lefty has notched 77 strikeouts in 40 2/3 innings this season.

The stat sheet for Tyler Mahle hasn’t necessarily been pristine, but it’s not a total disaster either. Mahle has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last 10 starts. Not to mention, the Brewers’ offense hasn’t been at its best of late, scoring three runs or fewer in five of their last six games and the Reds have one run or fewer in three of the last five games.

Brewers’ games have gone under the total in five straight, while Reds’ games have done the same in 18 of their last 24. Five of the nine Brewers-Reds’ matchups have also gone under the total this season. This is THE TOP TREND is the SK Trend Confidence rating system tonight, folks! Let’s have at it!

* Final Score Prediction * Milwaukee Brewers: 5 – Cincinnati Reds: 3

[7:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (1.5-run line: -144)
BAL: Thomas Darwin Eshelman – R (MLB debut)
TB: Ryne Stanek – R (0-1, 2.76 ERA/1.14 WHIP)

OK, time to pick on the Orioles again. And this is the perfect time to do so, given that Tampa Bay will be rolling out one of its patented bullpen-games. I always love taking the Rays in these situations because they play the individual matchups so well and truly make it work to their benefit.

Even better for the Rays is that they’ll be facing the worst team in MLB. The Orioles have lost 14 of the last 17 games, and their bullpen is absolutely dreadful. Baltimore’s pen ranks dead last (even worse than the Mets) in every single metric that is tabulated.

The Rays are 4-2 against the Orioles this season and will likely add on to that win total tonight. Tampa Bay’s -280 moneyline is its highest total of the season, thus increasing the likelihood that the home team will take care of business this evening.

* Final Score Prediction * Tampa Bay Rays: 7 – Baltimore Orioles: 2