MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, April 27 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[2:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins (-1.5, -116)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-1, 8.59 ERA)
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (3-1, 2.97 ERA)

Death, taxes and Jose Berrios pitching at Target Field. This is a guy who loves sleeping in his own bed and getting that good home cooking. In two home starts this season, Berrios is 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA, allowing only six hits, two walks and two runs while striking out 17 over 14 1/3 innings. In fact, he is 20-5 when pitching in Minnesota since 2017.

For the Orioles, it’ll be Dan Straily taking the mound, and he has been nowhere near as efficient as his counterpart this season. Straily, who has surrendered seven homers over 14 2/3 innings this season, will be facing a deadly Twins lineup that is tied for fifth-most in MLB – despite playing the fewest games of any team. Not to mention, Minnesota hit five homers last night against Baltimore pitching.

The scene is set this afternoon for a comfortable Twins victory, so we’ll take them on the 1.5-run line and only lay -116 as opposed to the massive -260 moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 6 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

[2:15 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
CIN: Tyler Mahle – R (0-2, 3.52 ERA)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (1-1, 5.89 ERA)

The Reds exploded for 12 runs last night and will have a great chance to start another carousel around the basepaths against Dakota Hudson, who has a massive 2.09 WHIP this season. Not to mention, he has allowed eight homers over 18 1/3 innings of work. With the wind blowing out to left field at about 14-16 mph during the game, this could definitely be problematic for Hudson and the Cardinals if he continues those lackluster ways.

Tyler Mahle takes the hill for Cincy, coming off two rough outings out West, where he allowed 18 hits and eight runs over 12 innings in matchups against the Dodgers and Padres. Just like Hudson, if he continues to allow baserunners to get aboard, we could see some big blasts that bring those guys around to home plate.

I do feel like the Reds come back with another victory in this one, but you would have to expect the Cardinals to put up a good fight after getting embarrassed at home last night – that doesn’t happen often.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 7 – St. Louis Cardinals: 6 *

[3:07 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Oakland A’s at Toronto Blue Jays
OAK: Brett Anderson – L (3-1, 3.04 ERA)
TOR: Aaron Sanchez – R (2-1, 2.77 ERA)

The A’s have not been able to figure out Blue Jays’ pitching, only scoring eight runs over the four matchups this season. And it won’t get any easier today as Aaron Sanchez takes the mound with a 2.77 ERA. This will only be the second start at Rogers Centre for Sanchez this season, but we’re looking for him to be quite comfortable in the friendly home confines.

The lefty Brett Anderson takes the mound for the A’s, and he has been able to limit opposing hitters to one home run over 26 2/3 innings this season. Anderson has been able to wiggle his way out of a few jams early on, but it’s a good sign that his control has been intact, allowing two walks or fewer in four of his five starts.

The IRT in this game came down a half-run to nine, so Vegas is thinking both starters should be quite effective in this matchup. I’ll have to agree and put my money on the under this afternoon.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 4 – Oakland A’s: 3 *