MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, July 13


By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 136-110-5 (55.3%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (10-4, 3.15 ERA/1.12 WHIP)
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (8-6, 3.61 ERA/1.17 WHIP)

Two talented righties take the mound at Progressive Field in their first start since the All-Star break.

Jake Odorizzi definitely needed the break to regather himself. The veteran’s last four outings haven’t gone well, but we can attribute some of those woes to a blister on his pitching hand and matchups against teams that have done well against him over the course of his career. Now that everything is healed up, look for Odorizzi to get back to his usually-dominant self.

Recently, Odorizzi had six of seven outings where he allowed one run or fewer. He actually had a season-high 11 strikeouts and allowed one hit (a solo homer) over six innings against the Indians in his only matchup against them in 2019. All in all, Odorizzi’s numbers are fairly solid against a good portion of the current Cleveland lineup so we should see plenty of continued success.

The guy we’re really banking on to have a good outing is Trevor Bauer, who has been a thorn in the side of a good majority of the Twins’ lineup. Now, his last outing against Minnesota isn’t one that we want to see again, but he does have 16 strikeouts in 15 innings against them this season.

Bauer had a few hiccups, but his good outings have been better than ever recently. In fact, Bauer has allowed one run or fewer in four of his last six starts.

Five of the last eight Twins’ games have gone under the total and we’re looking to see more of the same this evening. The SK system has the under on this game graded as the third-best pick on our MLB board today.

* Final Score Prediction * Cleveland Indians: 4 – Minnesota Twins: 3

[7:15 p.m. EST] Over 9 – San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers
SF: Madison Bumgarner – L (5-7, 4.03 ERA/1.20 WHIP)
MIL: Zach Davies – R (7-2, 3.07 ERA/1.38 WHIP)

Madison Bumgarner hasn’t been at his best on the road this season, registering a 2-5 record and 4.60 ERA away from Oracle Park. He did face the Brewers back on June 15, allowing five hits, three walks and five runs (three earned) over six innings – the final score in that game was 8-7, in favor of the Giants.

The key to the total going over could surprisingly be the suddenly potent Giants’ offense. It’s hard to believe, but this offense has posted at least seven runs in six of the last eight games – subsequently, the total has gone over in seven of those games. That also includes a 10-run output last night at Miller Park against these same Brewers.

Zach Davies had plenty of bad outings of late, and most of his success came in a whopping four starts against the Pirates in a span of seven outings. Thankfully, the Pirates aren’t in the ballpark tonight – it’ll be the Giants, and I can’t imagine too many people thought we’d be saying that.

Also playing in San Francisco’s favor is the fact that Milwaukee has allowed at least six runs in each of the last four games – all four of those games have gone over the total.

Vegas sees the value in the total going over tonight, as they’ve adjusted the game total from 8.5 to 9.0, with the IRT (implied run totals) increasing +0.3 for both sides.

All in all, the SK system is quite fond of the total going over in this game, making its B+ grade the fourth-highest on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction * Milwaukee Brewers: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 5