MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, July 7


By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 130-111-5 (53.8%) *

[1:10 p.m.] New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
NYY: James Paxton – L (5-3, 4.09 ERA/1.45 WHIP)
TB: Charlie Morton – R (9-2, 2.36 ERA/1.03 WHIP)

Vegas already set this one up for a pitcher’s duel, decreasing the game total from 8.5 to 7.5, and both sides got massive IRT decreases as well — Yankees: -0.6, Rays: -0.4.

James Paxton will match up well against a Rays’ team that has the second-highest K-rate against left-handed pitching this season. Even against decent competition, Paxton has allowed two runs or fewer in three of his last four starts.

Charlie Morton has been straight up filthy, allowing one run or fewer in four of his last six starts. The Yanks do have some hitters like Breyvic Valera and Austine Romine which will downgrade their lineup a bit, but Morton’s stuff is among the best in MLB.

Look for these two guys to duel it out against each other and give their respective bullpens a little more rest heading into the All-Star break.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Yankees: 3 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2

[1:10 p.m. EST] Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (7-2, 3.89 ERA/1.33 WHIP)
NYM: Zack Wheeler – R (8-5, 4.42 ERA/1.25 WHIP)

These two just dueled it out last week before the bullpens ruined everything. In fact, Vegas thinks we’ll be seeing yet another duel, decreasing the game total from 8.5 to 8.0, with the Phils IRT decreasing -0.3 and the Mets at -0.2.

Aaron Nola is 6-1 with a 3.48 ERA/1.13 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Mets. He has just been flat out amazing over the last three starts, allowing only two runs (one earned) over the last 23 innings.

Zach Wheeler has handled the Phillies well over the course of his career, going 5-2 with a 2.95 ERA/1.07 WHIP against them in 13 career starts. It looks like the consistency is finally starting to round back to form at the right time, allowing only four runs over the 19 1/3 innings.

The two bullpens looked great last night, and the Phils’ has been even more impressive in this whole series. Ultimately, I feel like that gives them the edge today, but the under is where the money is at.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 4 – New York Mets: 3