MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, June 27


By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 124-106-4 (54%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals (1.5-run line: -120) at Miami Marlins
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (8-4, 3.79 ERA/1.08 WHIP)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara – R (4-6, 3.51 ERA/1.41 WHIP)

Stephen Strasburg has handled the Marlins with relative ease over the course of his career, going 18-7 with a 2.88 ERA/1.09 WHIP in 32 career starts – the Nationals are 23-9 in those games. This year’s version of the Marlins is a lot worse, especially of late, with a .269 wOBA and .099 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

The road has been much more kind to Strasburg this season, as his 2.92 ERA is much better there than at Nationals Park, where it sits at 4.71. In fact, the Nationals are a whopping 25-8 in road games which Strasburg has started since the beginning of last season.

Sandy Alcantara has had a rough go of it against the Nationals over his career, losing all three of his starts and accumulating a 9.00 ERA/2.46 WHIP. The top four hitters in Washington’s lineup (Turner, Eaton, Rendon, Soto) have particularly given Alcantara trouble, combining to go 15-for-32 against him.

Recently, Alcantara has been allowing loads of baserunners – 22 of them in his last 13 2/3 innings of work. Unfortunately, the Phillies and Pirates couldn’t take advantage in those games, but we’ll give the Nationals the benefit of the doubt tonight.

The SK Trend Confidence rating is high on the Nationals on the 1.5-run line, for all of the reasons listed above.

* Final Score Prediction * Washington Nationals: 6 – Miami Marlins: 1

[8:40 p.m. EST] Under 12 (-120) – Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -134) at Colorado Rockies
LAD: Walker Buehler – R (8-1, 2.96 ERA/0.88 WHIP)
COL: Peter Lambert – R (2-0, 5.85 ERA/1.35 WHIP)

Walker Buehler has been fantastic in the month of June with a 3-0 record, 0.87 ERA/0.45 WHIP and 42 strikeouts in 31 innings of work. His last outing came against these same Rockies, going the distance allowing two runs (on two solo homers) while striking out 16.

Buehler has made eight career starts against the Rockies and gone 3-1 with a 2.09 ERA/0.81 WHIP. In his last four starts against Colorado, the righty has allowed 10 hits/six walks and only five runs (three earned) in a total 26 2/3 innings.

The Rockies’ offense hasn’t played at Coors Field since Trevor Story went down with the thumb injury, but they have an average of only 3.6 runs per game in the seven afterward. Not to mention, Colorado owns an anemic .274 xwOBA against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, thus alluding to the lack of quality contact.

After two solid outings to begin his career, Peter Lambert has now coughed up 16 hits and 11 runs over his last eight innings of work. Lambert has been getting hit harder by left-handed bats and four of the first five hitters in the Dodgers’ lineup are projected to be from that side.

Lastly, the difference between these two bullpens over the last 14 days is quite significant. Over that span, the Rockies’ pen owns the fourth-worst ERA (6.62) while the Dodgers’ has the fifth-best (3.00).

The SK Trend Confidence rating has strong grades on the total going under and the Dodgers in both fashions, moneyline and 1.5-run line. Los Angeles is a perfect 6-0 against Colorado going into tonight’s matchup.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Dodgers: 8 – Colorado Rockies: 3