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[8:40 p.m. EST] Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies (1.5-run line: -132)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara – R (4-10, 4.44 ERA/1.44 WHIP)
COL: Jon Gray – R (10-8, 4.06 ERA/1.39 WHIP)
The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day is the Rockies beating the Marlins by a healthy margin. After all, Vegas made a massive statement on this game, giving Colorado a +0.7 IRT (implied run total) increase while Miami received a slight -0.1 decrease.
Jon Gray takes the ball for the Rockies, and he’ll face a Marlins team with anemic .258 weighted on-base average, .106 ISO (power metric) and 28.7% K-rate numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Granted, Miami did a number on Walker Buehler and Los Angeles yesterday, but we all know how crazy afternoon baseball can be. We certainly won’t hold a misnomer of a performance like that against Buehler, and we should also not get too giddy about the Marlins’ offense after that either.
Not to mention, the Rockies had Thursday off while the Marlins had to make the long trip out to the high altitude of Denver. There have been plenty of teams that struggled in this scenario before – we’ll take our chances and bet one of the worst teams in baseball will do just the same, if not, even more.
Sandy Alcantara had a good performance against the Rockies earlier this season, but that was in Miami – pitching at Coors Field is a much more difficult task. Not only that, but the Rockies have a respectable .342 weighted on-base average and are only striking out 16.2% of the time against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.
The Marlins allowed 31 runs in three games against the Dodgers prior to flying out to Denver. That certainly doesn’t bode well for a team moving into a much more friendly hitter’s environment.
A big key for the Rockies’ success tonight will be leadoff hitter Charlie Blackmon, who owns massive home/road splits. At Coors Field, he is hitting .411 (.461 OBP) while only posting a .252 average (.287 OBP) on the road. When Blackmon is getting on base, this Rockies team is a lot more dynamic and that really sets the table for guys like Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado behind him.
Look for the Rockies to put a world of hurt on the Marlins tonight, leading us to victory in this bet.
* Final Score Prediction * Colorado Rockies: 12 – Miami Marlins: 4