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* 2019 MLB Record: 197-139-8 (58.6%) *
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[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8 – Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
ATL: Julio Teheran – R (6-7, 3.46 ERA/1.30 WHIP)
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (7-5, 3.35 ERA/1.05 WHIP)
We got whacked over the skull last night by taking the under as one of our premium picks, but we’re confident that it’ll come through for us tonight. As no surprise, the Marlins do have the second-lowest IRT (implied run total) of any team on the slate.
Julio Teheran will look to cool off a Miami team that posted nine runs last night. Where it came from? I have no idea, but last night’s lineup should all have to get their urine tested before tonight’s game.
Nonetheless, over the last 21 days, the Marlins have posted a dreadful .260 weighted on-base average, .158 ISO (power metric) and 23.3% K-rate against right-handed pitching. It’s no secret, but they own league-worst or near-league-worst numbers in nearly every single advanced metric in this split against righties.
After a rough finish to the end of June, Teheran got back on track against this same Marlins team by tossing six innings of scoreless ball, and then followed that up with five stellar outings before tonight. Teheran has been excellent against the Marlins this season, with a 0.78 WHIP and no runs allowed over 18 innings.
I like my Caleb Smith at Marlins Park, which is exactly where he’ll be tonight. The splits are truly something else, as he owns a 5-1 record, 2.66 ERA, .181 opposing batting average and 4 HR allowed – compared to a 2-4 record, 3.95 ERA, .210 opposing batting average and 14 HR allowed.
It’s very odd to see the Braves struggling against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days, as they own a .284 weighted on-base average and 29.4% K-rate. Obviously, last night’s lack of offense was unexpected after hanging double-digits in back-to-back days in Minnesota, but it’ll be interesting to see if those struggles continue once again.
All in all, we’re expecting both of these starting pitchers to bring their A-game and keep this total under eight runs for all of our loyal customers. Godspeed!
* Final Score Prediction * Atlanta Braves: 4 – Miami Marlins: 2