MLB Free Pick of the Day for Monday, August 5

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 186-136-8 (57.8%) *
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[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 11.5 – Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox
KC: Mike Montgomery – L (1-4, 6.34 ERA/1.77 WHIP)
BOS: Rick Porcello – R (9-8, 5.74 ERA/1.46 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system has tons of love for the total going over on tonight’s Red Sox-Royals game, despite having a massive 11.5-run total. These two starting pitchers are a big reason why we’re heading in this direction, and it’s worth noting that Boston’s games have gone over the total in 17 of the last 23 while Kansas City’s have gone over the total in seven of the last nine.

Most of the runs are coming from the Red Sox tonight, plain and simple. Mike Montgomery takes the mound for the Royals, and this guy has allowed 18 hits and 10 runs in 11 1/3 innings since joining the team. Those totals could certainly increase tonight as Boston’s 7.2 IRT (implied run total) is the highest for any team on today’s entire schedule of games.

The Red Sox have been mashing left-handed pitching to the tune of a .387 weighted on-base average and .315 ISO (power metric) over the last 21 days. If that wasn’t enough, the Royals bullpen has the sixth-worst ERA in all of baseball this season.

Rick Porcello is the final piece to this puzzle, allowing at least four runs in six of his last seven starts – he allowed exactly six runs in four of his last six games (34 2/3 innings), and a total of 10 homers in that span. While KC’s offense isn’t exactly humming along at the moment, it should certainly have no problem posting a handful of runs against Porcello.

It’s quite interesting, but the Red Sox must know they have to be on their A-game offensively when Porcello is on the mound. And it makes perfect sense, considering they’ve scored a double-digit number of runs in five of his last six starts.

All in all, we’re looking for the Red Sox offense to be the catalyst in taking this total over the mark. But we’ve also got faith in the Royals to add some runs on the board here as well.

* Final Score Prediction * Boston Red Sox: 12 – Kansas City Royals: 4