By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh
- Follow Spread Knowledge on Twitter @SKSportsBets
- Sign up for our Live Pick Alerts today!
SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up with Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.
Since July 28, we have a 46-19-4 record over the last 69 premium picks — these do not include free picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!
[3:05 p.m. EST] Over 14 – Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies
MIA: Jordan Yamamoto – R (4-4, 4.42 ERA/1.05 WHIP)
COL: Peter Lambert – R (2-3, 6.75 ERA/1.60 WHIP)
The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the total on the Marlins-Rockies game on Sunday. We’ve got an A-grade for the total going over in this one, with plenty of reasons to believe so. The weather in Denver should be perfect for hitting, with temperatures in the 90s for most of the day.
Hot temperatures + bats + baseballs = home runs.
Vegas already puts its stamp on this game by increasing the game total from 13.0 to 14.0 and IRTs (implied run totals) for both teams – Rockies: +0.9, Marlins: +0.2. Colorado initially had the second-highest IRT to start the day, but its 8.1 IRT and +0.9 IRT increase are both tops on the slate now. Miami’s 6.1 IRT is the third-highest for any team on today’s entire schedule of games.
After a handful of dominant outings to begin his MLB career, it looks like the league has finally figured out Jordan Yamamoto. The rookie right-hander has now allowed at least four runs in each of his last five outings.
The Rockies have scored at least six runs in four of the last six games, so it’s good to see their offense getting back on track. We mentioned it in Friday’s article, but Charlie Blackmon’s home/road splits (obviously favoring him at Coors Field) are truly something else. With Blackmon setting the table, look for the Rockies to put a respectable number of runs on the board and get us comfortably over the total.
Peter Lambert has not been good at Coors Field, posting a 7.01 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over 34 2/3 innings of work. While the Marlins have only scored four runs in their trip to Denver so far, it’s quite telling for them to have the third-highest IRT on the entire slate.
Look for the Rockies to be the catalyst in getting us over the total, but we should definitely expect the Marlins to chip away at this as well.
* Final Score Prediction * Colorado Rockies: 12 – Miami Marlins: 7