MLB Free Pick of the Day for Sunday, August 4

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 182-136-8 (57.4%) *
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[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
BOS: David Price – L (7-4, 3.86 ERA/1.25 WHIP)
NYY: J.A. Happ – L (8-6, 5.19 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Bronx, where the Yankees will host the Red Sox. We like the total going over 9.5 runs, with plenty of reasons to think so.

David Price finally got his first win ever at Yankee Stadium earlier this season, but this place has been a house of horrors for him since joining the Red Sox. Price’s 1-6 record and 8.59 ERA/1.96 WHIP in seven starts there paints a nasty image, and his recent performances haven’t been much better. Over his last three starts (@BAL, @TB, vs. TB), Price has allowed 21 hits (5 HR) and 13 runs over a span of 14 1/3 innings.

J.A. Happ may have good numbers against these Red Sox hitters, but he’ll be going against a desperate team looking to avoid a four-game sweep. We fully expect the likes of Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts to get it popping on offense, whether Boston wins or loses this game. We saw this scenario play out the opposite way last weekend when the Red Sox took the first three games before the Yankees put a beatdown on Chris Sale… again.

Happ has been getting hit hard over his last three starts (vs. COL, @ MIN, vs. ARZ), allowing 22 base-knocks (4 HR) and 11 runs over his last 14 1/3 innings.

It’s worth noting that both teams are absolutely crushing left-handed pitching over the last 21 days:

BOS: .374 weighted on-base average, .295 ISO
NYY: .355 weighted on-base average, .241 ISO

All in all, we’ve got a history of one pitcher struggling mightily in this ballpark and one desperate team looking to make some noise on offense. It’s a beautiful combination of riches that will lead to the total going over.

* Final Score Prediction * Boston Red Sox: 8 – New York Yankees: 6