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[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 – Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
TB: Brendan McKay – L (1-1, 3.72 ERA/1.03 WHIP)
BOS: Andrew Cashner – R (10-5, 4.18 ERA/1.26 WHIP)
Our SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Rays-Red Sox game. We had the over in our three-game bundle pack last night, and we’ll be doing the same here once again.
Andrew Cashner has not lived up to the billing since donning the Red Sox uniform, allowing a total of 24 hits, five walks (1.64 WHIP) and 12 runs over 17 2/3 innings. Interestingly enough, all of those games came against AL East opponents (vs. TOR, @BAL, vs. NYY) and tonight’s matchup against the Rays will complete the divisional roundabout.
Things won’t get any easier, as Tampa Bay has scored 33 runs over its last four games, including a total of 14 in the first two games of this series in Boston.
Brendan McKay has truly been a mixed bag of outings, with two good starts and two that he’d probably like to forget about. Considering the Red Sox will be trying to avoid the sweep, you have to think they’ll put some runs on the board tonight, whether it’s a winning or losing effort.
After all, Boston is absolutely pounding left-handed pitching over the last 21 days, with massive .406 weighted on-base average and .313 ISO (power metric) numbers. Last night, it was the lefty Ryan Yarbrough that the Red Sox teed off on more than any other Rays pitcher.
All in all, we’re looking for both offenses to take advantage of the starting pitchers early and lead us right into the total going over. Vegas does have an interesting take on this game, giving the Rays a +0.3 IRT increase while the Red Sox get a -0.4 decrease. Playing the human card here, you have to believe Boston puts some runs on the board, but we’ll get crazy and give Tampa Bay the win to complete the sweep.
* Final Score Prediction * Tampa Bay Rays: 7 – Boston Red Sox: 6