MLB Free Pick of the Day for Tuesday, August 13

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 204-142-9 (59.1%) *

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[8:40 p.m. EST] Under 12 – Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
ARZ: Zac Gallen – R (2-3, 2.40 ERA/1.14 WHIP)
COL: Jon Gray – R (10-8, 4.06 ERA/1.39 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system has been excellent at picking out these unders from games at Coors Field, the greatest hitting park known to man. Well, here we are, back for more with reasons to believe that we’ll see a lower-than-usual total on this game.

Vegas already made adjustments on this game, lowering the game total from 12.5 to 12.0 and decreasing the IRTs (implied runs totals) for both sides – D-Backs: -0.3, Rockies: -0.2.

We’ve pretty much been on Zac Gallen at every step of the way on his MLB journey, and thank goodness for that. The rookie right-hander has been nothing short of magnificent in seven starts with the Marlins and in his D-Backs debut last week, where he threw five innings of one-hit shutout ball with six strikeouts.

In each of Gallen’s last six starts, the game total has never risen above seven runs.
The Rockies’ offense (or team, as a whole) hasn’t been great, especially against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, posting less-than-average .306 weighted on-base average and .136 ISO (power metric) numbers.

Jon Gray has looked a lot better of late, even though the traditional numbers might not tell that story. For whatever reason, he really struggled against a mess of a Giants team in two starts and then had a bunch of good outings around that one. However, in Gray’s last outing, the defense let him down big time as only three of the seven runs he allowed were earned.

Gray has only allowed six runs in 16 1/3 innings this season against the Rockies, holding them to three runs or fewer in each of his three starts. The D-Backs’ offense has slowed down a bit over the last 21 days against right-handed pitching, posting .278 weighted on-base average and .160 ISO numbers.

All in all, we’ve got two starting pitchers that are fully capable of shutting down two struggling offenses and leading us to the under in victorious fashion.

* Final Score Prediction * Colorado Rockies: 5 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 3