MLB Free Pick of the Day for Tuesday, August 20

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 212-156-10 (58%) *

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[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 11 – Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (11-3, 3.56 ERA/1.26 WHIP)
BOS: Brian Johnson – L (1-1, 6.45 ERA/2.01 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Phillies-Red Sox interleague showdown. It’s quite interesting to see Boston favored in this game, considering the mismatch of starting pitching, on paper, for Philly. With that being said, we’re taking the over with the thought that more than a few runs will be scored on Tuesday night.

Over the last 21 days, both teams have been doing well against the handedness of starting pitcher they’ll be facing tonight. The Phillies .363 weighted on-base average/.200 ISO (power metric) and Red Sox .383 weighted on-base average/.249 ISO certainly paint a nice picture for the scoreboard being lit up.

Aaron Nola typically gets a sizeable moneyline when facing a low-end starter, so there’s plenty of reason to think things won’t go his way tonight. After all, his 4.63 ERA on the road is quite larger than the 2.94 ERA he posts at Citizens Bank Park.

Brian Johnson doesn’t usually go deep into games, and tonight probably won’t be much different. He’s only maxed out at five innings once this season and gone a total of 8 2/3 innings over the last three starts.

All in all, it’s wise to be skeptical of the line that has been placed in front us. Look for the Red Sox to get to Nola early and then hang some more runs on the Phils’ bullpen. These are two of the more dynamic offenses in baseball, and they’ll show us why this evening.

* Final Score Prediction * Boston Red Sox: 9 – Philadelphia Phillies: 7