MLB Free Pick of the Day for Wednesday, August 7

logo
By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 192-136-9 (58.5%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since last Sunday, we have a 28-4-2 record over the last 34 picks — still two games pending from this afternoon, and we pushed on White Sox-Tigers total going under. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. You can click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[6:40 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners
SD: Joey Lucchesi – L (7-6, 4.23 ERA/1.18 WHIP)
SEA: Yusei Kikuchi – L (4-8, 5.49 ERA/1.48 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Mariners-Padres game. We’ve got the total going over as one of higher plays on this slate, considering each of these lefty starting pitchers is in a tough spot.

Let’s start with Yusei Kikuchi, who will likely be the one giving up most of these runs. Kikuchi has allowed 28 homers this season in 118 innings this season, including eight of them in his last 15 2/3 innings of work.

The Padres’ lineup features a ton of power-hitting right-handed bats and get to use an extra one as the designated hitter tonight. They also own an impressive .354 weighted on-base average and .193 ISO (power metric) against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days, so things are certainly looking up in that regard.

Not to mention, the Mariners have allowed at least nine runs in four of their last five games.
Joey Lucchesi is a solid pitcher; he just does nearly all of his good work at Petco Park. On the road, however, it’s a much different story. Lucchesi can’t seem to get comfortable in a hotel bed, posting a 1-6 record and 6.46 ERA in nine road starts, and the splits are certainly disparaging when looking at the opposing batting average — .186 at home, compared to .282 on the road.

Seattle does have solid .338 weighted on-base average and .221 ISO numbers against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

All in all, we’re expecting each of these starters to get lit up early, and that’ll coast us right to the victory.

* Final Score Prediction * San Diego Padres: 8 – Seattle Mariners: 6