MLB Free Pick of the Day — Saturday, July 27

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 160-129-7 (55.4%) *

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[4:07 p.m. EST] Over 12 – New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
NYY: CC Sabathia – L (5-5, 5.40 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (12-4, 4.10 ERA/1.28 WHIP)

Vegas has already put its stamp on this game by raising the total from 11.0 to 12.0, with both teams – Red Sox: +0.7, Yankees: +0.3 – getting significant IRT (implied run total) increases.

The Red Sox (611) and Yankees (596) are actually the two highest-scoring teams in MLB this season, and it’s no surprise they’ve been most of this mashing against each other. In the last five meetings between the teams, they’ve combined for totals of 13, 30, 20, 22 and 15.

It looks like that old age is finally starting to catch up to CC Sabathia, and that regression has reared its head in an ugly way. The veteran lefty has now allowed seven homers over his last 17 innings of work while allowing a total of 13 runs (12 ER) over that span.

Also looking grim for Sabathia is the current state of this Red Sox offense, which owns a .377 weighted on-base average and .291 ISO (power metric) against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Good luck with all that, CC.

Eduardo Rodriguez is a fine pitcher, but there are more than enough capable Yankees bats that can make life difficult on him today. New York, like Boston, is hitting left-handed pitching well over the last 21 days, as evidenced by its .337 weighted on-base average and .247 ISO. E-Rod had the benefit of facing a couple of lesser teams during his recent run of good outings, but today will certainly have more difficulty attached to it.

All in all, we’re looking for the Red Sox offense to do some serious damage once again. 10 of the last 14 Red Sox games have gone over the total, while the last eight Yankees games have seen one of the teams score eight runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction * Boston Red Sox: 10 – New York Yankees: 6