Spreadknowledge Bundesliga bettings tips


Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich

These two giants of German football meet with both sides winning their last six games. Bayern have dropped just two points in their 13 while the home side have taken 27 points from a possible 30 in their last 10 games.

What can we expect from this fixture? Goals, if both strike forces are in the mood. In their last 11 league games, Bayern has bagged 34 goals, while Dortmund have netted 33 times. Both teams should score in this fixture but their respective defences have been pretty good. Dortmund has registered five clean sheets in their last six while the defending champions have nilled their opponents three times in their last four.

Over 2.5 total goals is another bet worth looking at. In Dortmund’s last nine home league games, a minimum of three total goals have been scored while over 2.5 goals has paid out in 12 of Bayern’s last 13 away league games.

A look at previous meetings suggests there should be goals in this match-up. Nine of the last 10 have seen at least three goals scored.

Over 1.5 goals

Bayer Leverkusen v Wolfsburg

Leverkusen host Wolfsburg in a clash between two top-six sides. Leverkusen have an incredible record of not trailing at half-time in their last 19 league games. That feeling of going into the changing room not behind on the scoreboard is not a feeling Wolfsburg are familiar with.

Wolfsburg has led at the break in three of their last 10. In those 10 games, their record at the interval has been – losing, drawing, ahead, losing, drawing, ahead, losing, drawing, ahead and losing in the weekend’s home game against Dortmund. If that sequence is to be continued, then this game should be level at half-time.

Leverkusen have been in good scoring form in their last seven games – scoring in both halves in six of them. That includes their last three in which they also won both the first half and second half.

Of the last 32 meetings, over 2.5 goals has paid out in 29 of them while 28 encounters have seen BTTS land.

Leverkusen to lead at half-time

Eintracht Frankfurt v Freiburg

This could be a slow-burner of a game. Neither side have a tendency to score early goals. Frankfurt have failed to find their opponents’ net before the 37th minute in their last eight games.

Freiburg, who suffered a 1-0 defeat at home to Werder Bremen on Saturday, have not scored a goal before the 28th minute in their last 14 matches. The last time they did so was in their 4-2 defeat at Borussia Munchengladbach on December 1.

Frankfurt has conceded four goals in the five minutes after half-time in their last five matches and this could be an area for Freiburg to exploit.

The fixture computer has not been kind to Frankfurt with their last three games against top five sides which is one of the reasons why over 2.5 goals has paid out in those games.

Freiburg don’t have the strike force of those sides with six goals scored in their last nine so under 3.5 goals might be the best bet in this game.

Under 3.5 goals

Werder Bremen v Borussia Munchengladbach

If Munchengladbach’s last nine matches are any indication as to what we could expect from this game, then we could expect both sides to score and combine for over 2.5 goals.

BTTS has landed in the visitors’ last nine league games while over 2.5 total goals has paid out in eight of those.

Two of Bremen’s last three have seen goals for both teams and over 2.5 goals scored. Of the last 18 goals Bremen has conceded, 13 have come after half-time.

If Bremen score in the 81st minute, it will be the fourth successive game in which Munchengladbach have conceded a goal in that particular minute.

Bremen have not scored first in their last seven home league games so I’d go for Munchengladbach to open the scoring which they have done in their last four games on the road.

Munchengladbach to score first

RB Leipzig v Hertha Berlin

Wednesday’s action gets under way with Hertha Berlin’s trip to RB Leipzig.

Between them, these two sides scored nine goals in the last round of fixtures. Leipzig scored five without reply at Mainz to take the aggregate score for the season to 13-0. Hertha scored all their goals in their 4-0 derby win over Union in the second half to ensure their fans had the bragging rights.

Defensively, these two sides have been difficult to penetrate. Leipzig has registered five clean sheets in their last seven games while Hertha’ derby win ensure back-to-back clean sheets.

Hertha have played the patience game in recent matches. Of the last 20 goals they have scored, 18 have been scored in the second half. They might find it a struggle against Leipzig who have only conceded two second half goals in their last 11 games and they both came in the same game – a 2-0 defeat at Eintracht Frankfurt.

Over 1.5 goals

Augsburg v Paderborn

Augsburg and Paderborn have found wins hard to come by in recent times. Between them, they have combined for one win in a total of 15 games and that came courtesy of Augsburg’s 3-0 win at Schalke on Sunday.

Both sides were quick out of the blocks last weekend registering goals in the first nine minutes. In Paderborn’s case, the basement side had already conceded when they found the net. The last five goals Paderborn have conceded have all come in the first half.

Neither side are used to scoring the first goal. Paderborn has failed to open the scoring in their last seven while Augsburg’s opener at Schalke was the first time they scored first in their last five.

Augsburg to score first

Dusseldorf v Schalke

The last time these two sides met, they drew 3-3 with Schalke coming from a goal down three times to claim a point thanks to Rouwen Hennings’ hat-trick.

And there is a good chance this could end all square also given Dusseldorf’s recent run of results. All four of their points from their last four matches have come from draws.

Six of their last eight games have been draws while four of Schalke’s last eight have been stalemates.

Scoring remains an issue for Davis Wagner’s side with just one goal scored in Schalke’s last six matches. They have failed to score in seven of their last nine and they might have to be patient against Dusseldorf. Of the last 19 goals conceded by the home side, 17 have come in the second half.

Under 3.5 goals. 

Hoffenheim v Cologne

With three minutes to play on Sunday, Cologne’s run of successive games with three or more total goals looked to be coming to an end. They trailed Dusseldorf 2-0 with time running out.

What followed was the most dramatic finish in the Bundesliga since the resumption of the season with two goals to snatch a point in a 2-2 draw. The comeback came a week after they themselves let a 2-0 lead slip at home to Mainz.

Sunday’s draw was Cologne’s tenth game in a row in which over 2.5 goals paid out. Can it pay out for an 11th time in Hoffenheim? I’m going for over 1.5 goals.

Recent history suggests it could. Hoffenheim’s last seven games in the PreZero Arena have seen a minimum of three match goals scored.

In Hoffenheim’s last 10 matches, early goals have been common with 10 goals scored before the stadium clocks reaches 20 minutes. The home side has not conceded a goal after the 74th minute in their last 13.

Cologne have picked the ball out of their net in the 61st minute in their last two matches. Will lightning strike a third time just after the hour mark?

Over 1.5 goals

Union Berlin v Mainz

Both these sides suffered heavy defeats last time out although Union have had longer to dwell on their loss. Their 4-0 loss in the Berlin derby occurred on Friday while Mainz’s 5-0 hammering by RB Leipzig came on Sunday.

Neither side are safe from relegation but a win for Union will ease their concerns considerably and move them six points clear of Mainz who ended the last round of fixtures just three points above Dusseldorf who occupy the play-off place.

The fifth goal Mainz conceded on Sunday came in the final 15 minutes which was the second time in their last three games in which they conceded a goal in that period of time. Union have conceded 11 goals in the 75th minute or later in their last 12 league games. I’m expecting that sequence to continue.

Over 1.5 goals