SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Wednesday, September 11


By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

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[7:05 p.m. EST] Atlanta Braves (1.5-run line: +112) at Philadelphia Phillies
ATL: Dallas Keuchel – L (7-5, 3.47 ERA/1.32 WHIP)
PHI: Zach Eflin – R (8-11, 4.31 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Braves-Phillies game on Wednesday. We’re taking Atlanta to cover the 1.5-run spread in this matchup, considering the mismatch of starting pitchers.

Dallas Keuchel has tossed five straight quality starts (all ATL wins), and this coming at the right time as the Braves head down the stretch. His only outing against the Phillies this season went well on a personal level, allowing two runs over seven innings, but the lefty did take the loss in that one.

If Keuchel does have a knock, though, it’s his performance on the road – 3-4 record/5.26 ERA in seven starts, compared to 4-1 with a 2.10 ERA in eight starts at home.

Zach Eflin has pitched well in his last three starts, albeit against lesser competition. That won’t help him tonight against a Braves team that has absolutely roped him this season for 14 hits (4 HR, .467 opposing batting average) and 17 runs (12 earned) in only 5 2/3 innings.

Eflin’s problems have mostly come against left-handed batters, and the Braves have plenty of pop from that side of the plate. In fact, lefties are crushing Eflin this season to the tune of a .529 slugging percentage and .876 OPS.

Six of the seven Braves’ wins against the Phillies have come by two runs or more, including each of the last five. Not to mention, Atlanta has won six of its last nine meetings with Philly.

* Final Score Prediction * Atlanta Braves: 6 – Philadelphia Phillies: 3