Tag: Boston Celtics

NBA Playoffs & MLB Value Bets for Wednesday, April 17

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

NBA Playoffs

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 207 – Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics

The second-highest SK Trend Confidence of the night for NBA is the under on tonight’s game between the Celtics and Pacers. Neither team shot the ball well in Boston’s 84-74 victory in Game 1 on Sunday, and we’re probably going to see more of the same since both teams were solid on the defensive end during the regular season – Indiana ranked third in defensive efficiency while Boston was sixth.

This could also be a game that the Celtics simply run away with, leaving the Pacers in the dust. Indy did fine, in terms of scoring points without Victor Oladipo most the season, but the playoffs are a much different game – especially with Brad Stevens coaching a focused Boston team.

The 207 total that Vegas placed on this game seems to tell the story beforehand, just as the 210.5 total did in Game 1.

[9:40 p.m. EST] Under 214 – Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets

Well, the SK Trend Confidence isn’t liking too many points in the NBA tonight, as the highest grade of the slate belongs to the under in tonight’s game between the Jazz and Rockets. Game 1 of this series wasn’t even close, a 32-point Houston victory, but I wouldn’t expect the same to go down tonight. Utah is incredibly well-coached and plays a very stingy brand of defense. Look for them to make the necessary adjustments and give James Harden & Co. a tougher time than usual scoring the basketball.

Although Game 1 was a much different story, the Jazz did hold the Rockets under 100 points in three of the four regular-season meetings. The only game which Utah did not, Houston scored 102 points.

On a side note, I do think the Jazz cover the 6.5-point spread and possibly, even win outright.

MLB Value Bets

[7:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5, -128)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-2, 3.32 ERA)
TB: Ryne Stanek – R (0-0, 2.16 ERA)

I’m a big fan of taking the Rays when it’s one of their patented “bullpen games.” Reason being, they can play their best hand in most individual matchups, whereas your typical starter could get knocked around for the first few innings. Ryne Stanek will typically go one or two innings and then hand it over to the bullpen that has the seventh-best ERA (3.53) in MLB. Not to mention, Tampa Bay’s bullpen ranks in the top-five of most fancy analytic numbers that bore most people to death – not me.

After a slow start, the Rays’ offense now has at least eight runs in four of the last six games and that should play well against David Hess, who has allowed four homers and seven runs over his last 10 2/3 innings of work. If Hess can’t stay in the game long enough, Tampa Bay will have the benefit of facing Baltimore’s bullpen, which ranks dead-last for ERA (6.96) in the American League this season and second-worst in all of MLB.

The Rays’ -270 moneyline is a bit more than most people would be willing to lay, so going with the 1.5-run line lessens that quite a bit.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 8 – Baltimore Orioles: 3 *

 [7:20 p.m. EST] Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves (-1.5, +118)
ARZ: Zack Godley – R (1-1, 7.41 ERA)
ATL: Kevin Gausman – R (1-1, 2.84 ERA)

The Braves’ offense looks dialed in at the moment, with 44 runs in their last seven games. Tonight’s matchup against Zack Godley is a nice one, considering he has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in 17 innings of work. Atlanta’s -160 moneyline matches its second-highest of the season, thus illuminating how much of a great spot they’re in.

Freddie Freeman, Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis are a combined 11-for-26 (.423 avg.) lifetime against Godley. It’s also worth noting that Arizona’s bullpen has the second-worst ERA (6.04) in the National League and fourth-worst in all of MLB.

Kevin Gausman goes for the Braves, and while he didn’t have his best stuff in that last outing against the Mets, this is a guy that is capable of shutting any team down on a given night. I’ll place my faith in a talented pitcher more often than not and feel like he can at least do enough to keep the D-Backs down for most of the night.

Going with the +118 1.5-run line, you’re able to make a small profit, as opposed to shelling out more on the moneyline to earn less.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 9 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 4 *

NBA Betting Value Picks for Sunday, April 7

By Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

If you haven’t been watching the NBA this season, Sunday is a great day to get yourself reacquainted with the game. There is a total of eight games on the docket that have some level of importance towards making the playoffs or positioning within the standings. Buckle up, folks. The Lord’s Day is going to be a dandy!

NBA Value Betting Picks for Sunday, April 7

[4:00 p.m. EST] Charlotte Hornets (+6.5) at Detroit Pistons – Total: 216

The Hornets have beaten the Pistons in all three meetings this season, two of them coming by 10+ points. After a brutal stretch of games out West, Charlotte has won its last two games and, thanks to help from other teams, still finds itself in the running for the last playoff bid in the East. The highest SK Trend Confidence on this game is in favor of the Hornets, who are 7-3 in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.

[7:35 p.m. EST] Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics (-190 ML) – Total: 217

Believe it or not, the Celtics have lost each of their two meetings against the Magic this season. This is a perfect time for Boston to repay the favor and finally clinch home-court advantage for the first round of the playoffs. The Celtics, who have gone through the motions this season, are clicking at the right time with five wins over the last six games. Those two wins from the Magic came by a combined five points. That, coupled with the fact that Orlando is fighting for its playoff livelihood, makes Boston a much safer play on the moneyline.

[9:00 p.m. EST] Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers (-135 ML) – Total: 217

This is EXCELLENT (I repeat… EXCELLENT) value on the Trail Blazers in this game. Why, you ask? Stay with me…

These two teams just played each other on Friday as part of a home-and-home series, and the team losing on the front-end of these matchups have come back to win over 70% of the time this season. Portland actually played Denver very well on Friday, despite what the nine-point differential might suggest. In fact, the Blazers are 6-1 in their last seven home games and desperately need a win tonight to keep a grip on the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

Take Portland with confidence and, as an added sprinkle of goodness, the over in this game has a 27% Trend Confidence rating in this game – our second-highest rating on the entire slate.

NBA Betting Preview for Friday, April 5

By Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

Get ready for another exciting night of NBA hoops! The Spread Knowledge top value plays of the night are listed below. However, because they are such heavy favorites on the moneyline, we’re only advising you to take them as an extra caveat to add to your parlays:

  • Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers (-667 ML)
  • New York Knicks at Houston Rockets (-2500 ML)

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 226.5 – Atlanta Hawks (+342 ML) at Orlando Magic

There’s no getting around it, but the Orlando Magic need to win, as they currently sit in the final spot of the Eastern Conference playoff race. This is the final time that Orlando will have a regular season game on its home court, so the level of importance doesn’t even need to be described.

However, the SK value system loves the moneyline number on the Atlanta Hawks, who have been quite pesky down the stretch with outright wins over the 76ers (twice), Bucks and Jazz. Hawks point guard Trae Young is still trying to make one last heroic attempt at winning the NBA Rookie of the Year award and he can certainly make life difficult on the Magic defense.

While it is true that Orlando hit four straight overs, 216 has been the highest total over that stretch. Granted, Atlanta’s NBA-leading pace and lackluster defense are the reasons we see a 226.5 total tonight, but that just lends more optimism that the Hawks come in and pull off the upset win. In fact, two of the three Hawks-Magic matchups have gone under tonight’s total.

[8:10 p.m. EST] Under 213 – Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers

These two teams just faced off last Friday and now they’ll do battle once again. The term “battle” is an understatement, as they both have the same record and find themselves jockeying for homecourt advantage in their eventual first-round playoff matchup. The Boston Celtics do hold the head-to-head tiebreaker but a win for the Indiana Pacers would be monumental here.

The one lean the SK value system has is Under 213 points in the game, mainly because of the importance of defense in this matchup, as Indiana ranks third in defensive efficiency and Boston ranks sixth. Not to mention, the two teams just saw each other and will likely have their best defensive efforts on deck.

[10:10 p.m. EST] New Orleans Pelicans (-130) at Phoenix Suns

The SK value system has quite the knack for pointing out these late-season NBA games that have absolutely no meaning whatsoever in the standings. However, the amount of key players the Phoenix Suns are missing is just too large to ignore. Granted, the New Orleans Pelicans will be missing Anthony Davis but that seems like a blip on the radar, consider the Suns are missing Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton and T.J. Warren.

Look for the Pelicans B-team to get the win over the Suns C-team.

[10:40 p.m. EST] Portland Trail Blazers (+236 ML) at Denver Nuggets

In what would be a dazzling upset win, the SK value system loves the Portland Trail Blazers to go on the road and get the outright W over the Denver Nuggets. The Trail Blazers have won 11 of their 13 games while the Nuggets have been a very Jekyll-and-Hyde sort of team, going 3-4 over the last seven. Denver has won each of the previous two meetings versus Portland this season by a combined four points. Not to mention, these two teams will face each other in their next game on Sunday – time for the Trail Blazers to get busy and even the score.

College Basketball and NBA Betting Preview for Friday, March 29

Welcome back for a fantastic Friday night of hoops in the college and pro games! Just as we said yesterday, it’s a great night to put a butt groove in your favorite seat.  Here’s what the Spread Knowledge system has in store for our fanbase tonight!

College Basketball Betting Preview

[7:09 p.m. EST] Michigan State Spartans (-6) vs. LSU Tigers – played in Washington, DC

The Michigan State Spartans are back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2015 and they’ll take on an LSU Tigers squad that had to squeak by in each of their first two games of the tournament. The SK system thinks the Tigers’ luck runs out tonight against Sparty, with Tom Izzo and the boys moving on to the Elite 8. LSU failed to cover the spread in those two games and now face a much stiffer test. Michigan State ranks highly in a number of different statistics, including field goal percentage, 3-point percentages, free-throw percentage, offensive rebounding and blocks, so look for them to have a well-rounded performance against LSU en route to victory.

[7:29 p.m. EST] Auburn Tigers (+5.5/+204 ML) vs. UNC Tar Heels – played in Kansas City, MO

It should be a fun night in the CBS studios with Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith having their alma maters matched against each other. But, on the court is where the real action is. The Auburn Tigers got lucky in an opening round win against the New Mexico State Aggies but parlayed that good fate into a second-round clobbering of the Kansas Jayhawks. The SK system likes Auburn to move on to the Elite 8 with an upset win over the North Carolina Tar Heels – as always, if you feel like that’s too much, take the Tigers with the 5.5 points they’re getting. One big loss for UNC could be Nassir Little, who is a true game-time decision with an illness.

Bettors will certainly want to keep an eye for our Live Picks alert during this game, as both teams can put up points in a hurry. If the game gets off to a slow start, you might get a much lower number on the total to take the over. Once again, sign up here for Live Pick alerts!

[9:57 p.m. EST] Kentucky Wildcats (-141 ML) vs. Houston Cougars – played in Kansas City, MO

The Kentucky Wildcats may have P.J. Washington back for this game and would welcome him back with welcome arms. With Washington in the lineup, Kentucky’s offensive metrics are through the roof compared to when he’s absent. Granted, there could be some problems integrating him back into the offense, but it was clear that the Wildcats missed the versatility that Washington brings to the team in their second-round win against Wofford. Kentucky will especially need his presence to improve its 3-point shooting against a Houston Cougars team that defends the arc as well as any team in the nation. All in all, the SK system is in favor of a well-rounded Kentucky team, on the moneyline, that could potentially have its best player back in the lineup.

NBA Betting Preview

[7:10 p.m.] Under 213.5 – Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics

It’s a HUGE matchup tonight as the Indiana Pacers travel to Beantown for a date with the Boston Celtics. Currently, the Pacers have a one-game lead on the Celtics, and this is the first of two meetings between these two teams in a span of eight days. It’s also worth noting, Indiana games have gone under the total in 11 of its last 13. The SK system likes another under, in what should be a hard-fought game between two teams playing for home-court advantage in a series that’ll likely be against each other.

[8:10 p.m.] Under 228.5 – Golden State Warriors (-9.5/-500 ML) at Minnesota Timberwolves

This is a nice combo-play that the SK system loves tonight with the Golden State Warriors over the Minnesota Timberwolves and the under in the game. The Warriors actually just played in Minnesota 10 days ago and won by 10 with the total falling at 224, which resulted in the under hitting. These T-Wolves are well out of the playoff race while the Warriors have a No. 1 seed to clinch. Look for Golden State to take care of business tonight and put its competition out of commission early.

[10:40 p.m.] Charlotte Hornets (-135 ML) at Los Angeles Lakers

In what is SK system’s top pick of the night, the Charlotte Hornets are in an advantageous position against the uninspired Los Angeles Lakers. Charlotte has made an incredible run down the stretch and now find themselves only 1.5 games away from the No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets certainly need this game considering their schedule is quite brutal down the stretch, while the Lakers have no interest in winning whatsoever.