Tag: MLB Betting

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Friday, September 13

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 7.5 – Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
LAD: Clayton Kershaw – L (13-5, 3.06 ERA/1.05 WHIP)
NYM: Noah Syndergaard – R (10-7, 4.06 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us on the total from the Dodgers-Mets game on Friday. We’re taking the over here, considering both of these marquee names starting on the mound have had some troubles of late.

It’s that time of the year, where Clayton Kershaw starts to take a dip in performance. What’s even more strange is that he’s allowed nine homers over his last 22 innings of work.

Tonight, he’ll be facing a Mets team that owns the sixth-best weighted on-base average (.342) in MLB against left-handed pitching this season. Not to mention, this will be the third of four consecutive starts where New York will be facing a lefty starter. Considering this team is in a groove against lefties, and still in the Wild Card hunt, we could certainly see Kershaw struggle once again.

Speaking of struggling, Noah Syndergaard will take the mound for the Mets. While the Dodgers haven’t been playing a ton of meaningful baseball over the last few weeks, this is a good litmus test for them as they head towards the postseason.

Syndergaard has really struggled in two of his last three starts, and the Dodgers have more than a few capable bats to put pressure on him.

All in all, 7.5 runs is not a tough number to hit at all. While there are two infamous names on the mound, the value is just not adding up for bettors to go under the total here.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Mets: 6 – Los Angeles Dodgers: 4

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Thursday, September 12

[8:10 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -130)
OAK: Homer Bailey – R (12-8, 4.87 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (18-5, 2.52 ERA/0.77 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the A’s-Astros game. We like Houston to cover the run-line in this one.

This series has been absolutely crazy, as the Astros opened with 15 runs and the A’s answered back the next night with 21. Oakland even took last night’s meeting, giving them a 5-2 record against Houston over the last seven meetings. It’s time for the Astros to take one back – in convincing fashion.

Justin Verlander has faced some weak competition of late, but he didn’t make the schedule. In fact, he’s done his job and then some, allowing four hits or less in five straight starts. Verlander has simply owned Oakland this season, posted a 2-0 record and 1.29 ERA in three starts – a span of 21 innings. Look for him to do the same tonight.

It won’t be easy for the A’s, considering they’ll be facing one of MLB’s best. Even more evident is how much they’ve struggled against him, scoring only three runs in 21 innings.

Homer Bailey has been effective in his last few outings, but his last against the Astros – not so much. In that outing, he allowed nine runs in two innings en route to an 11-1 win for Houston. While Bailey has gotten away with facing lesser teams, the Astros are certainly not one of them.

Right-handed batters are hitting .304 (compared to .220) against Bailey this season, and the Astros have plenty of them. Guys like George Springer, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman can get the party popping in no time. Look for them to hop on Bailey early and often, just as they did last time they faced him.

We’ve got plenty of narratives to foresee the Astros clubbing the A’s tonight. Look for them to get to Bailey early and often, giving Verlander more than enough run support.

* Final Score Prediction * Houston Astros: 10 – Oakland Athletics: 2

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Wednesday, September 11

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

Also, we’re happy to announce our reduced prices! The packages are now going for:

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[7:05 p.m. EST] Atlanta Braves (1.5-run line: +112) at Philadelphia Phillies
ATL: Dallas Keuchel – L (7-5, 3.47 ERA/1.32 WHIP)
PHI: Zach Eflin – R (8-11, 4.31 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Braves-Phillies game on Wednesday. We’re taking Atlanta to cover the 1.5-run spread in this matchup, considering the mismatch of starting pitchers.

Dallas Keuchel has tossed five straight quality starts (all ATL wins), and this coming at the right time as the Braves head down the stretch. His only outing against the Phillies this season went well on a personal level, allowing two runs over seven innings, but the lefty did take the loss in that one.

If Keuchel does have a knock, though, it’s his performance on the road – 3-4 record/5.26 ERA in seven starts, compared to 4-1 with a 2.10 ERA in eight starts at home.

Zach Eflin has pitched well in his last three starts, albeit against lesser competition. That won’t help him tonight against a Braves team that has absolutely roped him this season for 14 hits (4 HR, .467 opposing batting average) and 17 runs (12 earned) in only 5 2/3 innings.

Eflin’s problems have mostly come against left-handed batters, and the Braves have plenty of pop from that side of the plate. In fact, lefties are crushing Eflin this season to the tune of a .529 slugging percentage and .876 OPS.

Six of the seven Braves’ wins against the Phillies have come by two runs or more, including each of the last five. Not to mention, Atlanta has won six of its last nine meetings with Philly.

* Final Score Prediction * Atlanta Braves: 6 – Philadelphia Phillies: 3

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Tuesday, September 10

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

Also, we’re happy to announce that we’re reducing prices this week before the start of NFL season. The prices on our packages are now going from:

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[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 10 – Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros
OAK: Tanner Roark – R (9-8, 3.86 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
HOU: Wade Miley – L (13-4, 3.35 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the A’s-Astros game. Houston absolutely clobbered Oakland by the score of 15-0 last night, taking an 11-0 lead after two innings.

Each of the last two Astros’ games has been quite silly, to say the least. The AL West leaders have now scored a total of 36 runs over the last two games, outscoring their opponents 36-1. Yikes!

While the A’s got destroyed last night, they do hit left-handed pitching well and did post a double-digit number of runs in two games late last week.
Tanner Roark has been outstanding since coming to Oakland, but fly-ball pitchers don’t tend to do well with the small dimensions at Minute Maid Park. Just as we saw last night, the Astros jumped all over a very good pitcher in Mike Fiers, and tonight’s matchup against Roark is another one they can certainly take advantage of.

Wade Miley has done a great job against the A’s this season, posting a 1.83 ERA in three meetings. However, Miley didn’t even record an out in his last start against the lowly Mariners, and that has to be a cause for concern heading into a matchup against a desperate team looking to rebound.

You can make the argument that Houston will cover 10 runs all by itself. Taking the Astros has plenty of value here, but it’s tough to fully trust Miley after that last start against the Mariners. We should have more faith in runs being scored, with a few homers being hit in the process.

* Final Score Prediction * Houston Astros: 10 – Oakland Athletics: 5

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Wednesday, September 4

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

Also, we’re happy to announce that we’re reducing prices this week before the start of NFL season. The prices on our packages are now going from:

– Member + AI Boost: $90.00 to $60.00/month
– Member: $30.00 to $20.00/month
– BRAND NEW FREE PACKAGE: (find details on website)

* Use the Promo Code (SK15OFF) for an additional 15% off your subscription for the next 6 months *

 

[6:40 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 – Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (12-4, 3.45 ERA/1.21 WHIP)
CIN: Trevor Bauer – R (10-12, 4.53 ERA/1.29 WHIP)

The Phillies missed a golden opportunity to inch closer to the Cubs over the weekend, but they’ve won three straight games now to at least keep pace. While the Reds have fallen out of the playoff race, there is some motivation to not get completely clobbered in this series – tomorrow afternoon is the series finale. The over has seen plenty of bets early on for tonight’s total, but there might be a few reasons why that’s the wrong move.

We’re going with the under of 8.5 runs for the SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day.

Aaron Nola has stayed true to form as one of the best pitchers in baseball, allowing three runs or fewer in all six of his starts since the beginning of August. This is the time when Philly needs him most, as they try and make this last-month push towards the playoffs. As for Nola against Cincy, this is a matchup that has worked well before, considering its current roster owns a .171 batting average and four extra-base hits against him 82 career plate appearances.

The trade for Trevor Bauer to Cincy certainly hasn’t been one the team can be happy about. However, there’s something about Great American Ballpark that’s sitting well with him this season – even as a member of the Reds. In three starts there this season, Bauer owns a 2-1 record and 1.71 ERA/0.86 WHIP while striking out 31 batters – a span of 21 innings.

While Bauer’s numbers with the Reds aren’t great, it’s hard to ignore the success he’s had at Great American Ballpark this season. Nola is on top of his game and the Reds have only scored three runs in the first two games of this series.

We’ve had pre-game double-digit totals in the first two games of this series, and both games fell exactly at eight runs. So, with the 8.5-run total in tonight’s game, we’re going to see it fall just short of that number once again.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 4 – Cincinnati Reds: 2

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Tuesday, September 3

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

Also, we’re happy to announce that we’re reducing prices this week before the start of NFL season. The prices on our packages are now going from:

– Member + AI Boost: $90.00 to $60.00/month
– Member: $30.00 to $20.00/month
– BRAND NEW FREE PACKAGE: (find details on website)

* Use the Promo Code (SK15OFF) for an additional 15% off your subscription for the next 6 months *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – New York Mets at Washington Nationals
NYM: Jacob deGrom – R (8-8, 2.66 ERA/1.02 WHIP)
WSH: Max Scherzer – R (9-5, 2.46 ERA/1.02 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from Tuesday’s Mets-Nationals game. We’re going with the under here, considering two of the game’s best starting pitchers will be on display.

Jacob deGrom had another bout of bad luck in his last start, allowing two homers to Cubs’ catcher Victor Caratini en route to a 4-1 loss. However, there’s something about this matchup against the Nationals that bring out the best in him. deGrom owns a microscopic 0.53 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 17 innings of work – a span of three starts.

The Nationals’ offense just hasn’t been able to figure out deGrom yet, but they’re certainly not alone. They were able to pick on Orioles and Marlins pitching in the four games prior to Monday. However, tonight’s task is certainly one that can have them scratching their heads all night.

Max Scherzer recently came off the injured list at the end of August. The Nationals haven’t been extending him much in these first two starts since, letting him throw a total of 8 1/3 innings. Tonight, however, could be a chance for the Nationals (and Scherzer) to see what he’s truly made of at this point in Tuesday’s outing, considering his workload did increase gradually in those outings. In three starts against the Mets this season, Scherzer has a 1-1 record and 2.70 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 20 innings of work – a span of three starts.

The Mets’ offense has gotten back on track over the last few days, scoring at least six runs in four of the last six games. While this matchup against one of the best pitchers in baseball doesn’t usually provide much optimism, chipping away is probably the best they can do in this scenario.

This will be the third time that deGrom and Scherzer go head to head, and the Mets have taken each of those first two meetings. While there’s a not particular side that we’re fond of in the third version of deGrom-Scherzer.

Bullpens probably won’t play a huge part in this game, but it’s comforting to know that both teams’ units have been above average over the last 14 days.

* Final Score Prediction * Washington Nationals: 3 – New York Mets: 2

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Sunday, September 1

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

Also, we’re happy to announce that we’re reducing prices this week before the start of NFL season. The prices on our packages are now going from:

– Member + AI Boost: $90.00 to $60.00/month
– Member: $30.00 to $20.00/month
– BRAND NEW FREE PACKAGE: (find details on website)

* Use the Promo Code (SK15OFF) for an additional 15% off your subscription for the next 6 months *

 

[7:00 p.m. EST] New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (ML: +105)
NYM: Marcus Stroman – R (1-1, 4.91 ERA/1.30 WHIP)
PHI: Zach Eflin – R (8-11, 4.50 ERA/1.38 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Mets-Phillies game on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. Philly will be looking to avoid the sweep, and that’s why we’re taking them on the moneyline.

Zach Eflin got back on the good foot in his last start against the Marlins, going six innings while allowing only two runs en route to getting the win.

The Mets’ offense tends to love hitting at Citizens Bank Park, so the Phils will have to counter with some runs of their own. That’s certainly doable against Marcus Stroman, who still has yet to have that signature start as a member of the Mets.

Stroman has his struggles with control at times, and the Phils are a very disciplined and patient team at the plate. Look for them to put a few guys on base tonight and make Stroman pay for his mistakes.

We say it all the time – “The most dangerous baseball team is a desperate one.” With the season entering the final month, look for the Phils to have a sense of urgency and get this win tonight.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – New York Mets: 3

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Wednesday, August 28

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 224-173-10 (56.5%) *
SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

Also, we’re happy to announce that we’re reducing prices this week before the start of NFL season. The prices on our packages are now going from:

– Member + AI Boost: $90.00 to $60.00/month
– Member: $30.00 to $20.00/month
– BRAND NEW FREE PACKAGE: (find details on website)

* Use the Promo Code (SK15OFF) for an additional 15% off your subscription for the next 6 months *

 

Under 9.5 – Atlanta Braves at Toronto Blue Jays
ATL: Mike Foltynewicz – R (4-5, 5.68 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
TOR: Jacob Waguespack – R (4-1, 3.63 ERA/1.17 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Braves-Blue Jays game. We’re taking the total to go under in this one, considering nine of the last 10 Braves’ games have done just that.

Jacob Waguespack against the Braves is the key matchup here. The rookie right-hander has been absolutely magnificent since the final day of July, allowing two runs or fewer in four of those five starts – the only misnomer coming against the almighty Yankees. In Waguespack’s last start, he pitched seven innings of shutout ball, allowing only one hit and one walk while striking out five.

We mentioned these Braves’ games hitting the under a lot lately, but it’s their recent travel schedule that should have these guys in a funk for yet another night. After finishing a three-game series over the weekend in New York, the Braves had to travel out to Colorado for a make-up game before heading all the way up to Toronto for this two-game series.

Obviously, the Braves are well on their way to the postseason, so it makes plenty of sense that they’d be going through the motions at this point.

Now, the wild card to this whole operation is Mike Foltynewicz. After making the All-Star team last season, Folty had a brutal start to the 2019 campaign and was actually sent down to the minors for a little over a month. Since returning, he’s calmed down quite a bit with a 2-0 record to go along with a 3.91 ERA/1.35 WHIP. We’d love to see the walks come down, but it’s worth noting the Blue Jays own the fifth-worst walk-strikeout ratio in baseball against right-handed pitching.

The Braves’ bullpen does own the eighth-best ERA (3.74) in baseball over the last 14 days – hence, why we’ve seen so many unders from their games lately.

* Final Score Prediction * Atlanta Braves: 4 – Toronto Blue Jays: 3

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Tuesday, August 27

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 222-171-10 (56.5%) *

SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

Also, we’re happy to announce that we’re reducing prices this week before the start of NFL season. The prices on our packages are now going from:

– Member + AI Boost: $90.00 to $60.00/month
– Member: $30.00 to $20.00/month
– BRAND NEW FREE PACKAGE: (find details on website)

* Use the Promo Code (SK15OFF) for an additional 15% off your subscription for the next 6 months *

 

[8:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros
TB: Charlie Morton – R (13-5, 2.85 ERA/1.06 WHIP)
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (15-5, 2.77 ERA/0.81 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Astros-Rays game on Tuesday night. We’re going with the under in this game, considering Vegas adjusted the game total from 8.5 to 7.5, with both sides getting significant IRT (implied run total) decreases – Rays: -0.7, Astros: -0.4.

Justin Verlander has endured some of the worst possible luck in recent starts, but he’s still pitching at an elite level. In fact, the electric righty has now posted double-digit strikeout games in each of his last seven outings.

Although it was all the way back in March, Verlander dazzled the Rays in seven innings of one-run ball while striking out nine batters. Tampa Bay comes into today’s game after losing two straight games to the Orioles, followed by on off-day, so their bats and minds are still likely to be in a funk on Tuesday night.

Charlie Morton returns to the city that basically reinvented his career, and got him a World Series ring. The veteran righty has talked in recent days about loving it here in Houston and having all the respect in the world for his old teammates, but he’s got a job to do – and more importantly, the Rays are still fighting for that second AL Wild Card spot.

This is a matchup between two of the best arms in baseball, so we should definitely expect these guys to feed off one another. It’s worth noting, many opposing pitchers have done the same in trying to match Verlander, as six of his last seven starts have resulted in the game total reaching seven runs or fewer.

* Final Score Prediction * Houston Astros: 3 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Monday, August 26

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 222-167-10 (57.2%) *

SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

Also, we’re happy to announce that we’re reducing prices this week before the start of NFL season. The prices on our packages are now going from:

– Member + AI Boost: $90.00 to $60.00/month
– Member: $30.00 to $20.00/month
– BRAND NEW FREE PACKAGE: (find details on website)

* USE THE PROMO CODE (SK15OFF) TO GET ADDITIONAL 15% OFF YOUR SUBSCRIPTION FOR 6 MONTHS!!! * 

[8:15 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics (ML: -150) at Kansas City Royals
OAK: Homer Bailey – R (11-8, 5.06 ERA/1.39 WHIP)
KC: Brad Keller – R (7-13, 3.95 ERA/1.33 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes us to from the A’s-Royals game. Our system likes the A’s to win this one outright, and right the wrongs of their two-game weekend sweep at the hands of the cross-town rival Giants. There aren’t many games on tonight’s slate, so we don’t mind laying a couple of extra dollars on this bet.

Homer Bailey will be making a return to KC, where he spent the first half of this season before getting traded to Oakland. We certainly don’t have to call this a “revenge game,” considering anyone playing for the Royals over the last couple of years would’ve sold their soul to move to a contender.

Bailey’s recent form, though, is no joking matter. In his last two starts (a span of 12 2/3 innings), Bailey has allowed a 0.79 WHIP and only one run while striking out 15 batters. KC’s offense may have scored nine runs yesterday, but this is not something we should get accustomed to. The Royals have an absolutely dreadful .255 weighted on-base average against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, so Bailey should continue on his dominant ways.

While Bailey has a nice outlook, this A’s offense needs a little kick in the pants. Oakland’s metrics aren’t great against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, but it’s likely this offense gets it going later in the game against KC’s bullpen, which has the fourth-highest ERA in baseball over the last seven days.

All in all, the margin in talent between these two teams is quite significant. Look for the A’s to take their weekend frustration out on a Royals team making their vacation plans already.

* Final Score Prediction * Oakland Athletics: 4 – Kansas City Royals: 2