Tag: New York Mets

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Friday, September 13

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 7.5 – Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
LAD: Clayton Kershaw – L (13-5, 3.06 ERA/1.05 WHIP)
NYM: Noah Syndergaard – R (10-7, 4.06 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us on the total from the Dodgers-Mets game on Friday. We’re taking the over here, considering both of these marquee names starting on the mound have had some troubles of late.

It’s that time of the year, where Clayton Kershaw starts to take a dip in performance. What’s even more strange is that he’s allowed nine homers over his last 22 innings of work.

Tonight, he’ll be facing a Mets team that owns the sixth-best weighted on-base average (.342) in MLB against left-handed pitching this season. Not to mention, this will be the third of four consecutive starts where New York will be facing a lefty starter. Considering this team is in a groove against lefties, and still in the Wild Card hunt, we could certainly see Kershaw struggle once again.

Speaking of struggling, Noah Syndergaard will take the mound for the Mets. While the Dodgers haven’t been playing a ton of meaningful baseball over the last few weeks, this is a good litmus test for them as they head towards the postseason.

Syndergaard has really struggled in two of his last three starts, and the Dodgers have more than a few capable bats to put pressure on him.

All in all, 7.5 runs is not a tough number to hit at all. While there are two infamous names on the mound, the value is just not adding up for bettors to go under the total here.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Mets: 6 – Los Angeles Dodgers: 4

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Tuesday, September 3

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

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[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – New York Mets at Washington Nationals
NYM: Jacob deGrom – R (8-8, 2.66 ERA/1.02 WHIP)
WSH: Max Scherzer – R (9-5, 2.46 ERA/1.02 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from Tuesday’s Mets-Nationals game. We’re going with the under here, considering two of the game’s best starting pitchers will be on display.

Jacob deGrom had another bout of bad luck in his last start, allowing two homers to Cubs’ catcher Victor Caratini en route to a 4-1 loss. However, there’s something about this matchup against the Nationals that bring out the best in him. deGrom owns a microscopic 0.53 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 17 innings of work – a span of three starts.

The Nationals’ offense just hasn’t been able to figure out deGrom yet, but they’re certainly not alone. They were able to pick on Orioles and Marlins pitching in the four games prior to Monday. However, tonight’s task is certainly one that can have them scratching their heads all night.

Max Scherzer recently came off the injured list at the end of August. The Nationals haven’t been extending him much in these first two starts since, letting him throw a total of 8 1/3 innings. Tonight, however, could be a chance for the Nationals (and Scherzer) to see what he’s truly made of at this point in Tuesday’s outing, considering his workload did increase gradually in those outings. In three starts against the Mets this season, Scherzer has a 1-1 record and 2.70 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 20 innings of work – a span of three starts.

The Mets’ offense has gotten back on track over the last few days, scoring at least six runs in four of the last six games. While this matchup against one of the best pitchers in baseball doesn’t usually provide much optimism, chipping away is probably the best they can do in this scenario.

This will be the third time that deGrom and Scherzer go head to head, and the Mets have taken each of those first two meetings. While there’s a not particular side that we’re fond of in the third version of deGrom-Scherzer.

Bullpens probably won’t play a huge part in this game, but it’s comforting to know that both teams’ units have been above average over the last 14 days.

* Final Score Prediction * Washington Nationals: 3 – New York Mets: 2

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Sunday, September 1

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

Also, we’re happy to announce that we’re reducing prices this week before the start of NFL season. The prices on our packages are now going from:

– Member + AI Boost: $90.00 to $60.00/month
– Member: $30.00 to $20.00/month
– BRAND NEW FREE PACKAGE: (find details on website)

* Use the Promo Code (SK15OFF) for an additional 15% off your subscription for the next 6 months *

 

[7:00 p.m. EST] New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (ML: +105)
NYM: Marcus Stroman – R (1-1, 4.91 ERA/1.30 WHIP)
PHI: Zach Eflin – R (8-11, 4.50 ERA/1.38 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Mets-Phillies game on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. Philly will be looking to avoid the sweep, and that’s why we’re taking them on the moneyline.

Zach Eflin got back on the good foot in his last start against the Marlins, going six innings while allowing only two runs en route to getting the win.

The Mets’ offense tends to love hitting at Citizens Bank Park, so the Phils will have to counter with some runs of their own. That’s certainly doable against Marcus Stroman, who still has yet to have that signature start as a member of the Mets.

Stroman has his struggles with control at times, and the Phils are a very disciplined and patient team at the plate. Look for them to put a few guys on base tonight and make Stroman pay for his mistakes.

We say it all the time – “The most dangerous baseball team is a desperate one.” With the season entering the final month, look for the Phils to have a sense of urgency and get this win tonight.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – New York Mets: 3

MLB Free Pick of The Day for Thursday, August 22

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 215-159-10 (57.5%) *

SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up with Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 – Cleveland Indians at New York Mets
CLE: Aaron Civale – R (1-2, 1.50 ERA/0.96 WHIP)
NYM: Noah Syndergaard – R (8-6, 3.86 ERA/1.21 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system likes the under once again in tonight’s Indians-Mets game. These two teams have battled hard with one another throughout the first two meetings, and we’d like to think that’ll be three in three nights. The first game of this series might not have looked like it on paper, but a late error from the Indians took the train off the track a little bit .

Aaron Civale has been outstanding since making his MLB debut on June 22 – it actually took him more than a month to make his second, third and fourth starts, but the Indians surely don’t want to send this guy back down to the minors. The rookie has now allowed a total of four earned runs (seven unearned) in 24 innings of work, and now he’ll be facing a team that is quite unfamiliar with him.

Noah Syndergaard has looked great since the All-Star break with seven straight starts of allowing three earned runs or fewer – only two earned runs allowed or fewer in six of those. What’s even more amazing is the fact that Syndergaard has only allowed one home run over that stretch.

While we do like the Indians to avoid the sweep tonight, this should still be a great pitching matchup between two righties. It’ll likely be decided late, and certainly a game that we’ll all want to be around the TV for.

* Final Score Prediction * Cleveland Indians: 4 – New York Mets: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Friday, August 2

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 178-134-7 (57%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:05 p.m. EST] New York Mets (ML: -115) at Pittsburgh Pirates
NYM: Steven Matz – L (6-6, 4.32 ERA/1.38 WHIP)
PIT: Trevor Williams – R (3-4, 4.87 ERA/1.32 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us in the form of the Mets, who have won seven straight games. They’ll be facing a Pirates team they just swept last weekend, so we’re looking for them to continue on that successful path.

Steven Matz has been simply magnificent since the All-Star break, allowing only a 0.95 WHIP and four runs over 19 innings of work. One of those great outings came against this same Pirates team in his last outing, as it only took him 99 pitches to throw a complete-game shutout. During this seven-game winning streak, the Mets team has allowed three runs or fewer in six of those contests.

The Pirates have been terrible against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days, posting awful .242 weighted on-base average, .102 ISO (power metric) and 24% K-rate numbers.
Trevor Williams didn’t pitch bad at all in that last meeting against the Mets, but it was two homers that eventually did him in. It’s worth noting, though, those longballs have certainly given him trouble over the last few outings – Williams has now allowed 12 homers over his last six starts.

Since July 4, the Pirates have a dreadful 5-18 record and they’re losing games in just about every way imaginable. The Mets come into this game with everything clicking, from the offense to the pitching. Look for these trends to continue and the Mets to be victorious at the end of the night.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Mets: 4 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 3

MLB Free Pick of the Day – Tuesday, July 23

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 152-124-7 (55.1%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:10 p.m. EST] San Diego Padres (ML: -137) at New York Mets
SD: Chris Paddack – R (6-4, 2.70 ERA/0.87 WHIP)
NYM: Jason Vargas – L (4-5, 4.25 ERA/1.28 WHIP)

The Padres have had a rough go of things since the All-Star break, but they do have their best pitcher on the mound and a great matchup with all of their power-right bats to go against a left-handed pitcher. Vegas already put their stamp on this game, giving the Mets a -0.4 implied run total decrease, which is tied for the highest on tonight’s slate.

Chris Paddack has been outstanding this season, and he nearly had a no-hitter in his last start. The rookie righty has been incredibly dominant in his last three outings, allowing a total of six hits and two runs to go along with 22 strikeouts over his last 19 1/3 innings of work.

There’s a little bit of tension in this matchup against the Mets. Earlier this season, Paddack felt like he should have been named the NL Rookie of the Month for April. Pete Alonso of the Mets ended up winning the award, and Paddack said he was “coming for Alonso.” Paddack took that fire into a start earlier this season against New York, getting the win via 7 1/3 innings of scoreless ball. He even struck out Alonso in the first two at-bats.

Jason Vargas is finally starting to come back down to Earth, much to the delight of me and anyone else who loves to pick on the Mets. In the month of July, he has now allowed 12 runs and five homers over 16 1/3 innings of work.

Working against Vargas tonight is San Diego’s lineup, which has plenty of right-handed pop. The first four hitters in their lineup (Tatis Jr., Margot, Machado and Renfroe) all have an ISO/power metric of .250 or more against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days. I’m no mathematician, but more at-bats from your power-hitting sources sounds like a great idea to me.

All in all, we’ve got a huge mismatch of starting pitchers that should bode well for San Diego tonight. Look for the Padres to use the long ball to their advantage and get the win in the process.

* Final Score Prediction * San Diego Padres: 5 – New York Mets: 2

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, July 12

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 133-110-5 (54.7%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] New York Mets at Miami Marlins (ML: -110)
NYM: Jason Vargas – L (3-4, 3.77 ERA/1.31 WHIP)
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (4-4, 3.50 ERA/1.01 WHIP)

Caleb Smith hasn’t been at his best over the last few starts, but there are a couple of things attributing to that. For starters, he did land on the DL for a month with inflammation in his left hip – that would explain Smith going from utterly dominant to so-so mediocre. The other, is that he faced stiff competition – Braves, Brewers, Nationals and Padres – in each of his last four starts, all on the road… and all solid against left-handed pitching.

In fact, Smith hasn’t pitched a home game since May 15, and he’s been much better at Marlins Park with a 3-1 record and 1.84 ERA/0.89 WHIP. The young lefty has done quite well against the Mets over the course of his brief career, going 1-0 with a 3.24 ERA in three starts, including 23 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings.

On the other side, it’s the Mets. Oh, dear…

Jason Vargas has surprisingly been one of the team’s best pitchers, but the Vegas odds have already spoken. Until tonight, the Marlins have never been favored been against the Mets in 2019. Oddly enough, this is only the fifth time all season that the Marlins have been favored in a game.

Vargas allowed a season-high eight hits against Miami back on April 2 – his first start of the 2019 campaign. We’re not going to push all of our chips in the middle of the table based on that performance alone, but the Marlins have been a pesky bunch since the start of June. It’s a very underrated factor, but Miami has two veteran hitters in Starlin Castro and Curtis Granderson that have done very well against Vargas (combined 13-for-30, 6 2B, 1 HR), and those guys can certainly relay their intel to the rest of the club.

Unfortunately, the Marlins’ record and stats look feeble over that span because they’ve done nothing but face the class of the NL East (Braves, Nationals and Phillies) and most of the aces from those teams. Miami has held its own, though, and there’s certainly some motivation to try and get some wins against New York, who is the only team that is worse than them in the NL.

Last, but certainly not least, the Mets’ bullpen is notoriously known for being putrid. Cover your ears, Mets’ fans: the bullpen has the same number of blown saves this season that they do ACTUAL SAVES! Surprisingly, the only other team that can say that is the defending champion Red Sox.

Let’s take The Fish with favorable odds, an underrated starting pitching mismatch, and yeah… the Mets’ bullpen is always fun to pick on.

* Final Score Prediction * Miami Marlins: 4 – New York Mets: 2

[10:07 p.m. EST] Over 10 – Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels (ML: -154)
SEA: Mike Leake – R (7-7, 4.32 ERA/1.24 WHIP)
LAA: Taylor Cole – R (0-1, 4.32/1.58 WHIP)

Some people look at BvP (batter vs. pitcher) and think it’s a total sham – you could make the argument in a small sample size. However, when looking at a range of 281 plate appearances, there really shouldn’t be any confusion at all.

The current Angels’ roster is absolutely smacking Mike Leake around the ballpark for a combined .341 batting average, .389 on-base percentage and .948 OPS. Granted, Jonathan Lucroy and his .396 batting average will be out of the lineup for tonight (and the near future), but guys like Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton and Andrelton Simmons should do just fine without him. Leake won’t have to face Lucroy, but the aging righty still has to deal with the fact that he’s 2-5 with a 5.08 ERA on the road in 2019.

In 13 innings against the Angels this season, Leake has also allowed five homers. I think it’s safe to say someone has somebody’s number.

Not to get all philosophical, but this will be the first time the Angels play at home since the death of their fallen teammate, Tyler Skaggs. I really do think the Angels are going to make a nice run in his honor, and if that holds true, tonight is where it all begins.

Mariners’ pitching has been downright awful in 2019, whether it’s the starters, or their bullpen, which has allowed the fourth-worst ERA (5.03) and fourth-most homers (64) in all of MLB this season.

Taylor Cole will be the “opener” for Los Angeles tonight, and he should do just fine in limited work. He will, however, give way to the Angels’ bullpen which has allowed the most homers (25) in MLB over the last 30 days.

The Mariners’ roster has been depleted and will probably continue to have that same fate until the end of July, but these guys are a scrappy bunch that’ll put runs on the board no matter what. Of course, they have to, with the way the pitching has been this season.

Not to mention, no other defense in MLB has committed more errors (92) than the Mariners, and that gives the opposing offense more than enough chances to capitalize on scoring more run. To put that into perspective, the Orioles have the second-most errors in the league… with 68. Yikes!

All in all, the SK system likes the Angels to win this game, but the total going over 10 runs is our best bet of the night.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Angels: 9 – Seattle Mariners: 5

[10:07 p.m. EST] Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics (ML: -179)
CHW: Ivan Nova – R (4-7, 5.58 ERA/1.53 WHIP)
OAK: Mike Fiers – R (8-3, 3.87 ERA/1.10 WHIP)

Ivan Nova might’ve had a solid outing heading into the All-Star break, but let’s not act like all of his wounds have been healed. In fact, his two best outings since June 1 have been against the same Cubs team, while the Twins, Rangers, Yankees and Royals all roughed him up. The veteran righty is allowing a massive 5.58 ERA/1.53 WHIP and an opposing batting average of .318 this season, in addition to 19 homers over the last 78 1/3 innings of work.

Prior to the All-Star break, the A’s owned the ninth-best ISO rating (.187) in MLB against right-handed pitching. Now that guys like Khris Davis and Matt Olson are fully healthy, this is a deadly lineup with its chest puffed out. The 9-3 record that Oakland carried into the second half of the season should be a solid boost of momentum going forward.

The A’s opening IRT (implied run total) of 5.5 is one of the highest on tonight’s slate, and that says a lot about Nova’s impending meltdown, considering this is one of the worst hitting parks in MLB.

Perhaps the best part of betting the A’s tonight is their stud on the mound, Mike Fiers. In each of his last nine outings, the crafty right-hander has notched a quality start — over his last four outings, he’s allowed exactly one earned run each time out. Oakland has won seven of those nine contests, with the two losses (both by one run) coming against powerhouses Houston and Minnesota.

Fiers won’t be getting it done via the strikeout, but it’s important to note that his Statcast data is a better place than it’s ever been over his career.

When looking at the two bullpens in this game, the A’s clearly have the advantage here. Oakland’s pen is the only team in MLB allowing a HR/9 under 1.00 this season and its 3.91 ERA ranks seventh-best.

* Final Score Prediction * Oakland Athletics: 7 – Chicago White Sox: 2

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, July 7

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 130-111-5 (53.8%) *

[1:10 p.m.] New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
NYY: James Paxton – L (5-3, 4.09 ERA/1.45 WHIP)
TB: Charlie Morton – R (9-2, 2.36 ERA/1.03 WHIP)

Vegas already set this one up for a pitcher’s duel, decreasing the game total from 8.5 to 7.5, and both sides got massive IRT decreases as well — Yankees: -0.6, Rays: -0.4.

James Paxton will match up well against a Rays’ team that has the second-highest K-rate against left-handed pitching this season. Even against decent competition, Paxton has allowed two runs or fewer in three of his last four starts.

Charlie Morton has been straight up filthy, allowing one run or fewer in four of his last six starts. The Yanks do have some hitters like Breyvic Valera and Austine Romine which will downgrade their lineup a bit, but Morton’s stuff is among the best in MLB.

Look for these two guys to duel it out against each other and give their respective bullpens a little more rest heading into the All-Star break.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Yankees: 3 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2

[1:10 p.m. EST] Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (7-2, 3.89 ERA/1.33 WHIP)
NYM: Zack Wheeler – R (8-5, 4.42 ERA/1.25 WHIP)

These two just dueled it out last week before the bullpens ruined everything. In fact, Vegas thinks we’ll be seeing yet another duel, decreasing the game total from 8.5 to 8.0, with the Phils IRT decreasing -0.3 and the Mets at -0.2.

Aaron Nola is 6-1 with a 3.48 ERA/1.13 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Mets. He has just been flat out amazing over the last three starts, allowing only two runs (one earned) over the last 23 innings.

Zach Wheeler has handled the Phillies well over the course of his career, going 5-2 with a 2.95 ERA/1.07 WHIP against them in 13 career starts. It looks like the consistency is finally starting to round back to form at the right time, allowing only four runs over the 19 1/3 innings.

The two bullpens looked great last night, and the Phils’ has been even more impressive in this whole series. Ultimately, I feel like that gives them the edge today, but the under is where the money is at.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 4 – New York Mets: 3

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, June 28

!!! ATTENTION READERS !!! 

Just wanted to give everyone a heads up, but there won’t be any written articles tomorrow (6/29), next Friday (7/5) and next Saturday (7/6) due to prior commitments. Sorry for the inconvenience. All computer-generated picks will still be calculated and the site will be up and running on those days as usual.

 

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 125-106-4 (54%) *


[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 11 (-102) – Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
PIT: Chris Archer – R (3-6, 5.56 ERA/1.48 WHIP)
MIL: Jhoulys Chacin – R (3-8, 5.88 ERA/1.51 WHIP)

The Brewers’ offense surprisingly sputtered in their recent three-game series against the Mariners, but just watching yesterday’s game it was evident that bad luck played a part. Numerous hard-hit balls managed to find leather or landed a few steps from the wall.

Luckily, they’ll be facing a pitcher in Chris Archer who hasn’t been at his best. In fact, the right has allowed a homer in 11 of his 13 starts this season and owns a massive 8.42 ERA on the road. Since coming to Pittsburgh, Archer has allowed at least four runs and two homers in each of his three starts against Milwaukee.

On the other side, Jhoulys Chacin has been getting rocked all season. His last outing against the Pirates (on May 31) was downright brutal, as the righty allowed six hits/four walks and seven runs over 2 2/3 innings.

Good news for the Pirates – and the over – is that Brewers’ reliever Josh Hader pitched the final two innings yesterday to get the save. After pitching two innings the previous day, Hader has not entered the next day’s game once in his career.

The SK Trend Confidence rating has a B+ grade on the over in this game, given how many runs these two teams have put up against each other this season.

* Final Score Prediction * Milwaukee Brewers: 8 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 7

[8:40 p.m. EST] Over 12.5 (-110) – Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -134) at Colorado Rockies
LAD: Hyun-Jin Ryu – L (9-1, 1.27 ERA/0.84 WHIP)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (6-5, 4.91 ERA/1.57 WHIP)

In last night’s 12-8 slugfest, we saw exactly how helpful these hot temperatures at Coors Field are for the hitters. We’ve got the same conditions for tonight’s game, and that’s why Vegas has dramatically increased the total from 11.0 to 12.5, with the Dodgers (+0.9) and Rockies (+0.7) getting massive IRT increases.

There’s more reason to believe the Dodgers will add more runs to the game total. After all, Antonio Senzatela has been beaten over the head this season, especially at Coors field with a 6.21 ERA/1.59 WHIP. Senzatela did pitch well against the Dodgers last week, but we’ve seen plenty of teams capitalize offensively facing the same pitcher twice in a span of less than a week.

Hyun-Jin Ryu also faced the Rockies in his last start, allowing three runs (one earned) over six innings. However, Ryu has a 1-4 record over his last six start against Colorado, and it’s been even worse at Coors Field. In his last two starts there, the lefty has allowed 15 hits/six walks and 15 runs (10 earned) over six innings.

Just as the case was last night, the two bullpens will certainly be a factor and ultimately decide this one. In the month of June, the Dodgers’ bullpen has the second-best ERA (2.84) while the Rockies own the seventh-worst (5.46).

The SK Trend Confidence rating is strong on the Dodgers tonight in every fashion. After last night’s win, the Dodgers remain a perfect 7-0 against the Rockies this season.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Dodgers: 12 – Colorado Rockies: 10

[10:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 (-112) – St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres
STL: Michael Wacha – R (5-3, 5.59 ERA/1.67 WHIP)
SD: Eric Lauer – L (5-7, 4.32 ERA/1.32 WHIP)

There has only been a total of 9.0 at Petco Park twice this season, which is quite telling for a ballpark that doesn’t have the stigma of being a hitter’s park. For what it’s worth, both times the total finished on or above the mark. Vegas adjusted the total from 8.5 to 9.0 and both teams obviously got an IRT increase as well – Cardinals: +0.2, Padres: +0.3.

A good reason for the increased total is the Padres’ recent tear of offense, with 28 runs over the last three games. In the month of June, Padres’ games have gone over the total 15 times in 23 games with two pushes mixed in there.

Michael Wacha has been hit or miss lately, allowing six runs or more in three of his last six starts. The Padres will run a mostly right-handed lineup out at Wacha tonight, and he’s been getting crushed from that side of the plate. Opposing righties are walloping him for .338 batting average, .406 on-base percentage and 1.025 OPS this season. Of the 14 homers Wacha has allowed, 12 of them have come from righties.

While the Cardinals haven’t necessarily clobbered the ball of late, facing the Padres can certainly do them some good. Eric Lauer will have to deal with a nearly all right-handed lineup to deal with, including Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna, who are both 4-for-5 against him lifetime – Goldy has two homers while Ozuna has one.

If all of that wasn’t enough, San Diego’s bullpen has the third-worst bullpen ERA (6.31) in the month of June – only the Mets and Orioles have done worse.

* Final Score Prediction * San Diego Padres: 7 – St. Louis Cardinals: 4

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, June 26

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 122-105-4 (53.7%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 (-116) – New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (ML: -155)
NYM: Jason Vargas – L (3-3, 3.75 ERA/1.33 WHIP)
PHI: Nick Pivetta – R (4-2, 5.54 ERA/1.45 WHIP)

We’ve been on the right side of this total in the first two games of the Phils-Mets series, so let’s keep the train moving. The Phils already owned the highest IRT (5.6) on the night slate and that has now been boosted by slate-high +0.6 increase. Good things are coming for Philly tonight and the visitors should be able to tack enough runs on to have the total go over.

Jason Vargas takes the mound for the Mets and he’ll be facing a Phils’ offense that is absolutely locked in at the plate in the first two games of this series. For all the struggles Philly had recently, their .418 wOBA and .288 ISO against left-handed pitching are absolutely magnificent. Vargas hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning in each of his last two starts and is averaging just under five innings per start this season.

We should see plenty of the Mets bullpen, and the 20 runs scored by Philly in the first two games of this series have shined an even brighter light on how bad they’ve been. Look for more of the same tonight.

Nick Pivetta has struggled quite a bit over his last two starts, allowing 15 hits/five walks, 10 runs and five homers in 12 innings of work. Despite coughing up numerous runs, the Mets have always been able to them on the board at Citizens Bank Park. Look for the right-handed bats to do most of the damage against Pivetta, as they have a .337 batting average and 1.000 OPS in 102 plate appearances against him this season.

Philly’s bullpen was solid last night, but they have been a shaky unit overall this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Mets get a couple of extra runs against them either.

All in all, we should see plenty of runs for the third-consecutive night – and most of them coming from the Philly side.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 8 – New York Mets: 6

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-104) – Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers
TEX: Mike Minor – L (7-4, 2.52 ERA/1.15 WHIP)
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (5-5, 3.61 ERA/1.11 WHIP)

We’ll have dueling lefties at Comerica Park tonight as two of the more underrated pitchers in baseball will square off. Vegas adjusted the total down from 9.0 to 8.5 and the IRTs dipped for both teams: Rangers: -0.5, Tigers: -0.1.

Mike Minor has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last 11 starts – he’s allowed two runs or fewer eight times, one run or fewer six times and no runs in two of those outings. So far in the month of June, Minor has a 2-0 record and 1.93 ERA over four starts.

The Tigers’ numbers are slightly below average against lefties over the last 21 days with a .325 wOBA, and I see them having an even tougher time against Minor.

On the other side, Matt Boyd will look to get back on track after a few mediocre/rough outings against quality opponents in three of his last four. The caveat here is the Rangers’ woeful .260 wOBA, .098 ISO and 30.3% K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days. In the midst of Boyd’s struggles, he’s still striking out plenty of hitters – 30 Ks over the last 22 innings. Not to mention, the current Rangers’ roster owns a .263 on-base percentage in 78 career plate appearances against Boyd.

The SK Trend Confidence rating has B+ grades for the Rangers and total under tonight, which are some of the highest on the slate.

* Final Score Prediction * Texas Rangers: 4 – Detroit Tigers: 2