Tag: New York Mets

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, April 29

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[7:10 p.m. EST] Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets (-1.5, +122)
CIN: Tanner Roark – R (1-1, 3.24 ERA)
NYM: Zack Wheeler – R (2-2, 4.85 ERA)

The key to success for Zack Wheeler this season has been simple – don’t face the Nationals.
* WSH (twice): allowed 10 hits, 8 walks and 11 runs with 9 Ks over 9 2/3 innings
* PHI (twice)/ATL: allowed 16 hits, 6 walks and 5 runs with 24 Ks over 20 innings

Wheeler registered a quality start in each of the last three outings. His most impressive effort came in that last outing against the Phillies, throwing seven innings of a shutout ball while striking out 11 – a season high. Tonight, the Reds’ -0.4 IRT (implied run total) decrease is the largest on the board, and that’s just a further indicator that Wheeler is locked and loaded for his matchup.

Tanner Roark will face a familiar opponent, just doing in a different jersey this time around. The former Nationals pitcher has an 8-4 record with a 3.07 ERA in 22 appearances (16 starts) against the Mets lifetime. In fact, Roark has pitched very well in his last three starts, allowing only earned run in each of those.

Unlike the game you’ll read about below, I have more confidence in the Mets -1.5 run-line because of the recent performance of these respective bullpens. In terms of those fancy advanced metrics we all hate/love so much, the Mets’ bullpen ranks first in xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) and second in SIERA (skill-interactive earned run average) over the last seven days – The Reds rank ninth-worst in xFIP and fifth-worst in SIERA over the same span.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 5 – Cincinnati Reds: 1 *

[7:20 p.m. EST] San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves (-164)
SD: Nick Margevicius – L (2-2, 3.60 ERA)
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (1-1, 1.69 ERA)

Lots of good trends for the Braves in this game, so let’s get a tomahawk chant going! The trends that stood out above all:
* Braves moneyline increase from -140 to -164 – highest on the slate
* Braves have the highest wOBA [weighted on-base average]: (.391) vs left-handed pitching
* Padres have the third-highest K-rate (27%) vs right-handed pitching

Mike Soroka takes the hill for Atlanta, and he has been fantastic in each of those two starts this season. The young righty has allowed only two runs over 10 2/3 innings while fanning 13 batters in the process.

Nick Margevicius goes for San Diego, and he is also another talented young hurler. However, his 1.08 WHIP looks a lot prettier due to two matchups against the Giants. In fact, Margevicius has come back down to Earth over the last two starts (vs. SEA, vs. COL), allowing 11 hits, six walks and seven runs over his last nine innings.

I would love to go with the Braves on the -1.5 run-line, but their bullpen is an absolute disaster right now. Without boring the non-traditional baseball fan to death, one of the best metrics (SIERRA) ranks Atlanta’s bullpen as the second-worst in MLB. For that reason, we’ll keep it simple with the ATL moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 5 – San Diego Padres: 4 *

[7:40 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-1.5, -108) at Minnesota Twins
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (4-0, 2.61 ERA)
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (2-2, 4.37 ERA)

Sure, the Twins lead MLB in homers per game (1.96) but they’ve had six matchups against Orioles’ pitching to thank for that. Tonight, Minnesota will face one of the best pitchers in baseball who has absolutely owned this current lineup.

Justin Verlander has held the Twins’ current roster to a combined .167 batting average, .210 on-base percentage, .325 slugging percentage and .535 OBP – yikes! In fact, the veteran righty just held Minnesota to one run while striking out eight batters over eight innings in his last outing. Verlander has allowed four or fewer hits in four of his six starts, including each of the last three. Not to mention, if Verlander slips in the slightest, the Astros’ bullpen ranks first in SIERA and xFIP this season.

All in all, this is just a flat-out mismatch of talent between the two starting pitchers this evening. Granted, Odorizzi did get the win in his last outing against these same Astros, but he did allow eight hits and found himself in trouble for most of the evening. I expect Houston to make him pay for those misfortunes this time around.

I’m going with the -1.5 run-line in this game because of that mismatch of starting pitchers, and the Astros have won by two runs or more in four of Verlander’s six starts this season.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 6 – Minnesota Twins: 2 *

[9:45 p.m. EST] Over 8 – Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
LAD: Kenta Maeda – R (3-2, 5.20 ERA)
SF: Jeff Samardzija – R (2-1, 3.00 ERA)

Giants’ pitching was absolutely ripped in the three-game series against the Yankees over the weekend, allowing 24 runs, and life won’t get any easier with the Dodgers coming to town. Oracle Park is one of the worst venues for offense in all of MLB, hence why we’ve only seen one eight-run total there this season. The eight-run total in this game is quite interesting, considering it never got any higher than 7.5 in the three-game series at Dodger Stadium at the beginning of the month, but there is some solid reasoning to think we’ll see the fourth straight total go over the mark at Oracle Park.

The Dodgers do have the second-best wOBA (.356) vs right-handed pitching this season and three of the last four games that Jeff Samardzija has pitched in produced a double-digit number of runs.

On the flip side, the Giants have four batters with a .294 lifetime average or better against Kenta Maeda. Just like Samardzija, Maeda’s starts have been producing a lot of runs, with four of the five surrendering nine runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 5 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, April 28

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[1:10 p.m. EST] Over 8 – Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets
MIL: Gio Gonzalez – L (season debut)
NYM: Steven Matz – L (2-1, 4.03 ERA)

Two very hittable southpaws go up against one another at Citi Field, and even though Vegas has lowered the total on this game, I see it going the other way. What’s interesting here too is the wind that’ll be blowing in from right field. The way Citi Field is designed, that actually creates a Jetstream off the wall behind home plate out to left field.

That’s a perfect scenario for runs, considering the Mets rank fourth in weighted on-base average (wOBA) while the Brewers are eighth.

To be honest, I have no idea why the Brewers brought Gio Gonzalez back. He didn’t pitch well enough in the minors for the Yankees to add him to their minor league roster, but perhaps Milwaukee sees something we don’t. Believe me, I’ll keep searching.

Aside from one start in Philly, Steven Matz has actually been very good this season. However, with all these power righty bats that the Brewers have, I’m not feeling too optimistic about his chances in this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 6 – New York Mets: 5 *

[2:15 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
CIN: Sonny Gray – R (0-3 3.65 ERA)
STL: Jack Flaherty – R (2-1, 5.25 ERA)

This is my favorite play of the day, as we have two very underrated pitchers going up against one another. And Vegas has taken notice, dropping the game total from 8.5 to 7.5 – subsequently, the IRT dropped -0.5 for each as well. The weather also comes into play today, with the wind blowing in from right field at about 10 mph.

Jack Flaherty had plenty of tough matchups this season – three against the Brewers, one against the Dodgers, and his easiest came at home against the Padres. Against the Brewers, Flaherty has allowed 13 runs over 13 innings – against everyone else, he has allowed one run over 11 innings. His record and ERA just don’t match up to the type of power-pitcher this guy is, and you can thank the Brewers for that.

Apparently, Sonny Gray really did need to get away from the Yankees. Finally, he is coming back around to be the pitcher we all thought he was. Despite pitching at another hitter’s haven, Gray has only allowed one homer this season – and it didn’t even come in Cincy! The righty actually has 18 strikeouts over his last 11 1/3 innings of work, and it came against good competition (at Dodgers, vs. Braves).

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 3 – Cincinnati Reds: 2 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Chicago Cubs (-110 ML) at Arizona Diamondbacks
CHC: Jose Quintana – L (3-1, 3.21 ERA)
ARZ: Luke Weaver – R (2-1, 3.33 ERA)

The Cubs have a combined .407 batting average and 1.076 OPS in 100 career plate appearances against Luke Weaver. All of that comes from his days with the Cardinals, but it’s certainly something to consider for today’s matchup.

Perhaps, the main reason for loving the Cubbies today is Jose Quintana, who has allowed 14 hits, three walks and two runs while striking out 25 batters over his last 21 innings of work.

Keeping it short and simple, fly the W flag – Cubbies win!

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 5 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 2 *

MLB Value Bets for Wednesday, April 17 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* MLB Picks have been running hot this season, going 22-11-2 in the Value Bets article! *

[1:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 – New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
NYM: Zack Wheeler – R (1-1, 7.47 ERA)
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (2-1, 2.25 ERA)

Zack Wheeler had his best outing of the season last time out, so I guess his key to success is just not facing the Nationals? Maybe not, but Wheeler does have solid have numbers against most of the Phils’ lineup and should be able to build off that last performance.

Jake Arrieta has only allowed five runs over his first 20 innings of the season and finally kept the walks to a minimum after allowing six of them on a chilly Sunday night game against the Braves.

The Mets will be without leadoff hitter Brandon Nimmo and that could be an issue for a team that relies on his hustle, with not much of that coming from anywhere else in the lineup. Also, the Phils will be without one of their best hitters, Jean Segura.

The bullpens have been used quite a bit over the last few days, so I’d expect both starters to go six (maybe even seven) innings today and be masterful in the process. Not to mention, we have already seen a total of 30 runs in the first two games of this series – we’re due for an under.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 4 – New York Mets: 3 *

[1:40 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
STL: Michael Wacha – R (0-0, 5.28 ERA)
MIL: Corbin Burnes – R (0-1, 10.05 ERA)

The Brewers and Cardinals have faced each other six times already this season, all at Miller Park, and combined to score at least nine runs in five of those games. Well, be prepared to see it happen for the sixth time in seven games.

Michael Wacha is putting a ton of runners on base (1.83 WHIP) and that’s just not a good recipe for success against the Brewers, who rank fifth in RBI (96) and seventh in on-base percentage (.347) in MLB. To make the over even more glamorous, Corbin Burnes is also putting guys on base (1.88 WHIP) and he’s allowed three homers in each of his three starts this season. There will be plenty of baserunners, with great offenses to knock them in.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 8 – Milwaukee Brewers: 7 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, April 11 (Night Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[7:20 p.m. EST] Over 9 –  New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
NYM: Steven Matz – L (0-0, 0.87 ERA)
ATL: Kevin Gausman – R (1-0, 0.00 ERA)

Nine of the 11 Mets’ games have reached the over this season, and a big part of that is the ineffectiveness of their bullpen, which ranks fifth-worst in MLB with a 6.51 ERA. That’s not a great sign for a team heading into one of the best hitting parks in the Majors and the wind is blowing out to left field at 12 mph. Both teams have seen its IRT rise (Mets: +0.3, Braves: +0.2) and have the second- and third-highest increase on the night slate.

Although Matz has gotten off to a great start this season and owns a great history against the Braves (4-0, 2.75 in seven career starts), most of that success wasn’t against this current group of guys. These ATL bats are in a great position, with Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson have been red-hot while Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr. are also producing nicely.

Gausman had a nice outing to start the season, but we should remember that it came against a very weak Marlins team. The Mets have been swinging it well, specifically Michael Conforto and Peter Alonso – we can even throw in J.D. Davis and Jeff McNeil if we wanted to. Robbie Cano also has a .400 lifetime average against Gausman. Not to mention, the Braves’ bullpen ranks ninth-worst in MLB with a 5.54 ERA.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 7 – New York Mets: 6 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
PIT: Joe Musgrove – R (1-0, 0.00 ERA)
CHC: Jose Quintana – L (0-1, 10.29 ERA)

The initial 10.5 total on this game has dropped down to nine, which is quite significant. So, it’s no surprise that both teams (Cubs: -0.9, Pirates: -0.7) have the largest Implied Run Total (IRT) decreases on the entire slate.

Musgrove has yet to allow a run in two appearances (one start, one relief), allowing only three hits and one walk over nine innings while striking out nine batters. Plus, the current Cubs roster only has a career .183 batting average against Musgrove. Given his current string on success in the present day, the Cubs will likely struggle a great deal on offense. Not to mention, Musgrove is 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA in three career starts against the Cubs.

On the other side, Quintana will be looking to rebound from a horrific start against the Brewers. It helps today’s under on the total that he is 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA in five career starts against the Pirates. Ultimately, though, the Cubs’ bullpen has struggled plenty, owning MLB’s sixth-worst ERA (6.34) this season.

* Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates: 4 – Chicago Cubs: 3 *

 [9:45 p.m. EST] Under 7 – Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
COL: Jon Gray – R (0-2, 5.68 ERA)
SF: Jeff Samardzija – R (0-0, 2.79 ERA)

I might be one of the few people out there that thinks Samardzija is a decent pitcher, but I will only take the chance of using him for money (betting or DFS) when pitching at Oracle Park, one of the league’s worst parks for hitting. Samardzija doesn’t have great overall numbers against the Rockies, but when the games haven’t been at Coors Field, he has a 3.02 ERA in those matchups. While he does have decent numbers this season, the former Notre Dame wideout hasn’t been going too deep into games. But that’s ok, considering the Giants’ bullpen ranks fourth in MLB with a 2.63 ERA.

Gray goes for the Rockies, and he’ll be salivating over this matchup against a Giants team that has a collective batting average of .206 and the league’s fourth-fewest amount of runs scored. In his last start, Gray ran into the scorching-hot Dodgers’ offense at Coors Field, so I won’t take that outing too deeply into thought. Look for him to rebound with a nice outing tonight against a bad San Fran offense.

All in all, I just don’t like the way either team is playing right now. I’ll give the edge to the Giants being at home and having the better bullpen, but I don’t think we’ll see a ton of runs in any event.

* Final Score Prediction: San Francisco Giants: 3 – Colorado Rockies: 2 *

MLB Betting Preview for Saturday, April 6 (Afternoon Games)

By Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[1:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at New York Mets  – Total: 7
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (0-0, 3.00 ERA)
NYM: Steven Matz – L (0-0, 1.69 ERA)

The total of seven is quite interesting in this game, as both pitchers haven’t had too much success against each of these teams. Matz is 1-5 with a 3.93 ERA in 10 career starts against the Nationals, while Corbin is 1-4 with a 4.86 ERA in nine starts (10 appearances) against the Mets. Not to mention, both teams had a day of rest yesterday, while the Mets’ bullpen has a 5.21 ERA this season and the Nats’ bullpen has an MLB-worst 10.38 ERA.

It should be no surprise that I’m rolling with the over in this game…

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 5 – New York Mets: 4

[2:05 p.m. EST] Minnesota Twins at Philadelphia Phillies (-150) – Total: 8
MIN: Michael Pineda – R (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (1-0, 1.50 ERA)

Arrieta struggled with some control issues in his season debut but still managed to wiggle out by giving up only one run. It’s the offense behind him, though, that makes the Phillies such an appealing bet. After all, they have scored at least eight runs in all but one of their six games this season.

Those bats will need to be sharp today against Pineda, who is a very talented pitcher but also has a tight leash as he eases his way back to a normal workload after missing nearly a year and a half.

All in all, the Phils are a more talented team and should take over late when these teams end up going to their respective bullpens.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – Minnesota Twins: 3

[2:10 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners (-110) at Chicago White Sox – Total: 8.5
SEA: Mike Leake – R (1-0, 3.00 ERA)
CHW: Lucas Giolito – R (1-0, 2.70 ERA)

In yesterday’s preview for this matchup, I mentioned the White Sox defense could be in serious trouble with eight errors (fourth-worst in MLB) over five games. Well, it ended up being the Mariners’ defense that cost their team the loss, with three errors, now totaling an MLB-worst 16 of them in nine games.

So, two teams that have been terrible on defense… what could go wrong? Everything, and that’s why I’m going with the over once again in this matchup. Six of Seattle’s nine games have gone over the total, while five of Chicago’s six games have done the same. Not to mention, a few of these White Sox hitters have hit Leake well when they’ve seen him.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 7 – Seattle Mariners: 5

MLB Betting Preview for Afternoon Games on Thursday, April 4

Welcome to a beautiful Thursday afternoon of MLB action! We’ve got four games on the early slate to break down, so without further ado…

[1:05 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals (-105) at Detroit Tigers – Total: 8
KC: Jakob Junis – R (1-0, 4.76 ERA)
DET: Spencer Turnbull – R (0-1, 5.40 ERA)

Junis has absolutely owned the Tigers over the course of his career, going 6-1 with a 3.12 ERA in seven starts (eight appearances) – he went 4-0 with a 1.95 ERA in five starts against them last season. That should be enough confidence, but you have to think this Tigers squad is a bit too giddy after taking the last two games of their series with the Yanks in New York.

Turnbull is still looking for the first win of his MLB career and he’ll have a tough time doing it against a speedy KC bunch. Being mostly a sinker-ball pitcher, Turnbull could get chipped away at in the cold Detroit weather by a lineup that can put a lot of pressure on the Tigers’ defense.

KC’s bullpen has the fourth-worst ERA (7.27), but the Tigers’ bats aren’t doing much damage either, with only 12 runs over the first seven games. It’s time for the turnaround!

Also, the wind will be blowing in at 9 mph from left field, so that should keep the ball in the park a bit more.

* Final Score Prediction: Kansas City Royals: 4 – Detroit Tigers: 3

[1:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at New York Mets (-128) – Total: 6.5
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (0-0, 6.00 ERA)
NYM: Noah Syndergaard – R (0-0, 6.00 ERA)

This is a starting pitcher’s rematch from the second game of this season, as the Mets got the 11-8 victory the first time around. Strasburg (8) and Syndergaard (7) had a combined 15 strikeouts in six innings apiece last Saturday, but they also gave up four earned runs each in the process.

Vegas has certainly left its mark on this game with a 6.5-run total, and you have to think we’re heading for a pitcher’s duel. The Nationals will be without one of the best base-stealers in the game, Trea Turner, and that should alleviate a great deal of stress that Syndergaard might have about keeping runners on base. In fact, April has been one of the better months over his career, allowing only one homer in 82 2/3 innings since 2016.

The Stras hasn’t been quite as good as Thor in the month of April, but it is worth noting that he does have a 24-5 record with a 2.52 ERA in 34 road starts since 2016.

All in all, we should look for both pitchers to rebound and put on quite the performance. But we’re giving the Mets the win, given their recent hot streak to begin the 2019 campaign.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 3 – Washington Nationals: 2

[3:05 p.m. EST] New York Yankees (-200) at Baltimore Orioles – Total: 8
NYY: James Paxton – L (0-1, 1.59 ERA)
BAL: Alex Cobb – R (Season Debut)

It seems like the remaining healthy players on the Yankees’ roster should be sporting bubble-wrap because they could be the next ones to land on the Injured List (it’s still the Disabled List, I don’t care what anyone says). Those remaining Yanks will head to Baltimore to face the Orioles, who are playing the home opener. Typically, this is a place that New York has gone in and dominated, especially in the crowd, but the start to this season has been anything but typical for the Evil Empire.

Alex Cobb was supposed to take the mound on Opening Day for the O’s before a minor injury negated that opportunity. After a dreadful start to the season, Cobb had some good performances down the stretch, but I don’t think we should be looking for more of the same today. And perhaps, it’ll do the Yanks some good to get away from their anxious fans in the Bronx.

James Paxton will take the mound to do what the Yanks paid him to do – win ball games. He wasn’t bad at all in his season debut against this same O’s squad, allowing four hits, one walk and two runs (one earned) over 5 and 2/3 innings while striking out five.

Neither team has been crushing the ball to start the season, but I do think it’ll do the Yankees some good to hit the road and get their minds right. Look for them to get to Cobb early en route to the victory.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 8 – Baltimore Orioles 3

[3:37 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (-114) at Oakland Athletics – Total: 8.5
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (0-1, 10.38 ERA)
OAK: Brett Anderson – L (1-0, 0.00 ERA)

The Boston Red Sox capped off a thrilling win on Wednesday night with a three-run ninth inning, and the hope is that they take this momentum into today’s game against Brett Anderson and the A’s bullpen. And Lord knows, the defending champs need to get back on the good foot, with only two wins in their first seven games of the season.

The Red Sox pitching has finally settled down a bit, allowing only four runs in the last two games. This comes after they allowed 41 runs over the first five games of the season — Yikes!!! That trend should continue, as today’s starter Eduardo Rodriguez has a 2-1 record and 2.33 ERA in four career starts against the A’s, including a 1-0 record and 1.69 ERA in two starts at Oakland.

I don’t think the Red Sox pitching woes are fully solved in the bullpen, though. After all, there should be some fatigue after playing all these extra playoff games over the last few years, including the World Series run last season. However, this is a desperate Boston team and they get the bats going today.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Oakland Athletics: 4