Tag: Texas Rangers

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 28

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 79-62-4 (56%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins (ML: -111)
SF: Jeff Samardzija – R (2-3, 3.27 ERA/1.17 WHIP)
MIA: Trevor Richards – R (1-5, 4.14 ERA/1.40 WHIP)

Believe it or not, but it’s the Marlins with the highest moneyline increase of the day (+111 to -111). It makes plenty of sense, considering they’ll be taking on a Giants’ team that flew across the country for one of the longest city-to-city trips in baseball.

That long trip won’t do any favors for San Francisco’s arms, who have been absolutely ripped to shreds lately. The Giants have allowed a total of 48 runs over the last five games, and that was all in their spacious hitter-hating Oracle Park. Jeff Samardzija should be able to neutralize some of the hurt, but he’s only been able to make it to the sixth inning in two of his 10 starts this season.

Trevor Richards takes the mound for Miami and he’s been surprisingly serviceable in the month of May, with a 3.38 ERA in four starts. He looked great, albeit against the Tigers, in his last start with a dominating command of the lower strike zone. Richards will look to cap off the month on a solid note against a Giants team that owns the third-worst wOBA (.285) against right-handed pitching.

Logistically, this is a bad spot for the Giants and Vegas has made the line adjustment. Look for the Marlins to grab the series opener against a fatigued team.

* Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins: 5 – San Francisco Giants: 2 *

[7:20 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (ML: -112)
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (4-3, 3.25 ERA/0.99 WHIP)
ATL: Max Fried – L (7-2, 2.88 ERA/1.12 WHIP)

We’re going to get excellent value on the Braves tonight at -112 on the moneyline. Most people may scratch their heads and wonder how with Stephen Strasburg on the mound for the Nationals.

For one, Atlanta has hit Strasburg well over the course of time. The majority of that success comes from Freddie Freeman, who has rocked him for a .354 batting average (17-for-48) with five doubles and four homers. Over Strasburg’s last 11 starts against the Braves, he is 5-4 with a 4.55 ERA.

Also, Strasburg does not pitch well in hot weather. Temperatures in Atlanta should be in the upper-80s/low-90s while he’s on the mound tonight, so look for that to be a detrimental factor. There aren’t any specific numbers on this hindrance for Stras, but coming from the DFS community and knowing a lot of these different nuances about players, this is one that has always stuck in my head.

It also doesn’t help that Washington’s bullpen ranks dead-last in every category imaginable, including losses (13) and ERA (7.12) – the latter of which is a full run more than the second-worst team. Just yesterday, the Nats’ bullpen blew another lead, making it the fourth time that has happened over the last seven games.

Max Fried takes the hill for Atlanta, and he’s been able to get back to his masterful ways over the last two outings. The young lefty has allowed only 10 baserunners and two runs over his last 12 innings of work, getting the win in both outings. Not to mention, the Braves’ offense hooked up him nicely with a total of 21 runs in those two starts. Atlanta is 7-3 in games that Fried has started this season.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 6 – Washington Nationals: 4 *

[10:00 p.m. EST] Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners (ML: -152)
TEX: Adrian Sampson – R (2-3, 4.44 ERA/1.46 WHIP)
SEA: Marco Gonzales – L (5-4, 3.41 ERA/1.33 WHIP)

Now that the Mariners got some looks at Adrian Sampson, they should be able to knock him around a bit tonight. That’s been a common theme, as the righty pitched well against Astros and Pirates the first time around before getting rocked the second time around – and third time, in the Astros’ case.

Seattle will have to wait to face Sampson, though, as Jesse Chavez will serve as the “opener” for the first inning or two in this game. Not to worry, they will get plenty of chances to make it work.

The opposite can be said about the Rangers facing Marco Gonzales, who has a 0.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 12 strikeouts against them this season. In fact, Gonzales had a season-high nine strikeouts against Texas when they visited Seattle back on April 25. Not to mention, the Rangers own the second-highest K-rate (28.8%) against left-handed pitching this season.

Seattle’s lineup looks a little different now with Kyle Seager and Mallex Smith back in action. The Mariners’ bottom of the lineup actually has some sizzle now to it with Smith and Shed Long down at the bottom. That should be able to put some pressure on a Rangers’ team that has allowed the fourth-most stolen bases (33) in baseball. Good news: the Mariners have the second-most stolen bases (38) in baseball.

The early IRT (Mariners: +0.2, Rangers: -0.2) and moneyline (-130 to -152) movements are in favor of the home team, so that’s certainly a positive sign.

* Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners: 5 – Texas Rangers: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, May 20

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 71-46-4 (60.7%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals (1.5-run line: +106) at New York Mets
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (4-1, 2.91 ERA/1.04 WHIP)
NYM: Wilmer Font – R (1-1, 7.08 ERA/1.52 WHIP)

Patrick Corbin has thrown eight quality starts in nine outings this season, three of them coming against the Mets. The lefty has made them look silly all season, mainly in the last two matchups as he totaled 20 strikeouts in 14 innings while only walking two batters. If that wasn’t bad enough, the Mets own a dreadful .197 wOBA, .059 ISO and 32.8% K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Not to mention, the Nationals have won five of Corbin’s last six starts. All five of those wins have come by two runs or more.

To say the Mets are struggling would be an understatement, getting shutout twice over the weekend in Miami, and their manager Mickey Callaway is hanging on by a thread. I don’t think there’s any way they could possibly muster up enough strength to get this train back on the track until Callaway is gone.

Wilmer Font will be making his third appearance for the Mets and the last one against these same Nats did not go well. The righty allowed six hits, two walks and five runs over 2 1/3 innings en route to getting the loss. Now that the Nationals’ lineup is mostly back together, look for them to put another world of hurt on Font.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 7 – New York Mets: 2 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (1.5-run line: +114)
SEA: Mike Leake – R (3-4, 4.00 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
TEX: Mike Minor – L (4-3, 2.61 ERA/1.13 WHIP)

Mike Leake has been much better of late, but he does run into a Rangers’ lineup that consistently had his number. The current Texas lineup has a combined .351 batting average and .973 OPS in 173 plate appearances against him. In the last meeting between the teams on April 27, Leake allowed 10 hits and nine runs (five earned) over five innings. The Rangers have also lost five of the last six games that Leake has started.

Aside from Opening Day, Mike Minor has been outstanding at Globe Life Park this season, going 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA in four starts and allowing an opposing batting average of .202. The remodeled lefty had a season-high 13 strikeouts in seven innings against the Mariners back in that same start where Leake got thrashed. Seattle’s current roster also owns a 33% K-rate against Minor.

All in all, I think this is going to be a massive offensive display from the Rangers tonight. Texas has the highest IRT (6.1) on tonight’s slate and the game has a total of 11 – I don’t see the Mariners contributing much to the party. It’s interesting to note that the Rangers have only been favored eight times this season and are 6-2 in those games.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 10 – Seattle Mariners: 2 *

[9:45 p.m. EST] Atlanta Braves (moneyline: -138) at San Francisco Giants
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (4-1, 0.98 ERA/1.01 WHIP)
SF: Andrew Suarez – L (season debut)

Mike Soroka has been outstanding this season, allowing one earned run or fewer in all six of his starts. Not to mention, the young righty still hasn’t allowed a homer yet in 2019. That’ll play well at Oracle Park, which is a notorious pitcher’s park.

On the other side, Andrew Suarez will be making his season debut, and he gets a very tough matchup against a Braves’ team that ranks sixth in all of baseball with a .341 wOBA and 113 wRC+. Suarez wasn’t doing well in Triple-A, posting a 2-3 record with a 6.33 ERA.

We’re looking at a massive mismatch of starting pitchers and that should give the Braves an early advantage, which they should hold on to.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 2 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 (-104) – Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
ARZ: Luke Weaver – R (3-2, 3.16 ERA/1.11 WHIP)
SD: Chris Paddack – R (3-2, 1.99 ERA/0.75 WHIP)

Vegas made quite the statement by putting a 6.5 total on this game, but it does make sense, considering the current form of each offense against right-handed pitching. Both teams have a wOBA under .300, while Diamondbacks have a K-rate of 28% and the Padres at 30.2% against righties over the last 14 days, and that could be why their IRTs both decreased as well – Diamondbacks: -0.3, Padres: -0.2.

Luke Weaver has five quality starts in his last seven outings, one of those coming against these same Padres. Weaver struck out eight batters over 6 1/3 innings but did take the tough loss in a tight 2-1 game — Hopefully, something like we’ll see tonight.

Chris Paddack is coming off his worst start of the season, but it came against a very tough Dodgers’ lineup. He did allow six runs but only three of them were earned. Nonetheless, Paddack has been quite effective, throwing four straight quality starts before that game against the Dodgers.

The young righty doesn’t go too deep into games, but the Padres’ bullpen owns the third-best xFIP (3.71) in all of baseball.

Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres: 3 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, May 19

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh and listen to Al on 104.9 FM’s “The Horn” today at 11:30 p.m. EST talk about these picks and more!

* 2019 MLB Record: 70-44-4 (61.3%) *

[1:20 p.m. EST] Milwaukee Brewers (-125) at Atlanta Braves
MIL: Brandon Woodruff – R (6-1, 3.72 ERA)
ATL: Mike Foltynewicz – R (0-3, 8.02 ERA)

We’ve got two pitchers heading in absolutely different directions. The Braves did take the first two games of this series, so naturally, I’m expecting the Brew Crew to avoid the sweep today. You know me and my affinity for teams in that scenario.

Brandon Woodruff has allowed a total of three runs over his last four starts, all NL East opponents – and not one of them was the Marlins. So, what’s adding another team to the list?

Mike Foltynewicz has gotten ripped in every outing this season — no sugar coating it. The righty has allowed 23 runs (19 earned) and eight homers in a total of 21 1/3 innings. Not to mention, the opposing team has scored at least nine runs in every one of Folty’s starts this season.

Milwaukee has one of the best lineups in baseball and should take advantage of the struggling Folty early on today.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 9 – Atlanta Braves: 4 *

[3:05 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals (-150) at Texas Rangers
STL: Jack Flaherty – R (4-3, 4.34 ERA)
TEX: Drew Smyly – L (0-3, 6.85 ERA)

The Cardinals have been right around league-average against left-handed pitching, but Drew Smyly is no average pitcher – he’s much worse. The aging lefty has allowed at least four runs in four of his last five starts, and that’s while only making it out of the fifth inning once — yikes! Not only that, but Smyly has allowed five homers and a massive 1.69 WHIP over those last five starts.

I’m not in love with Jack Flaherty’s road numbers (1-2, 7.23 ERA in four starts) but he’s much better than Smyly and whomever the Rangers’ bullpen has coming out behind him. Flaherty was supposed to have a massive 2019 campaign, so perhaps the beginning of that comes alive today.

St. Louis does have some serious right-handed power at the top of its lineup and ultimately, I feel like that’ll be the difference — especially early on —  today.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 11 – Texas Rangers: 5 *  

[4:00 p.m. EST] San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks (1.5-run line: +120)
SF: Drew Pomeranz – L (1-4, 5.93 ERA)
ARZ: Robbie Ray – L (3-1, 3.14 ERA)

The Diamondbacks have the second-best wOBA (.367) and ISO (.229) against left-handed pitching. Sure, MadBum had a solid start against them last night, but Drew Pomeranz is a far worse lefty – and if you want to look at judiciously, MadBum was reeeeeally good practice for Pomeranz. The lesser lefty, Pomeranz, has been hit hard in three of his last four outings before heading to the injured list.

Robbie Ray has been strong over his last five outings. Even in a start at Coors Field back on May 3, only one of five runs he allowed were earned. The Giants have not fared well against left-handed pitching this season, ranking second-worst in wOBA (.264) and fourth-worst in ISO (.114).

The analytics are certainly there – a solid lefty (Ray) going up against a team that sucks against lefties and a shitty lefty going up against a team that is great against lefties. Now, the D-Backs and Ray just have to go out there and do their job.

Last but not least, the total on this game has dropped all the way down to 8.0, thus giving the indication that Ray should be on his A-game today.

* Final Score Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 1 *

MLB & NBA Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 59-38-4 (61%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -230) at Detroit Tigers
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (6-1, 2.51 ERA/0.82 WHIP)
DET: Gregory Soto – L (0-1, 15.75 ERA/2.75 WHIP)

So, this is awkward. Justin Verlander will return to the only MLB city he called home before accepting a trade to Houston back in 2017.

Verlander has been absolutely phenomenal this season, allowing one run or fewer in six of his nine starts, while Detroit’s offense ranks near the bottom of MLB in nearly every advanced metric against right-handed pitching. Over the last 14 days, the Tigers have well below-average numbers in the same split.

This just isn’t going to end well for Detroit, losers of the first two games in this series by a combined score of 19-5. Houston’s offense is rocking and rolling over the last four games, with a total of 45 runs – the same amount as Miami has scored since April 21. Not to mention, the Astros’ offense ranks near the top of MLB in nearly every advanced metric, while owning absolutely gorgeous numbers against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

I talked about it yesterday, but it’s quite telling when you see a team with zaftig juice on the 1.5-run line. The Astros are listed at -230 in that regard, in comparison to the -350 moneyline odds. Also, the IRTs for both teams are unlike anything you’ll ever see, as the Astros are at 6.7 while the Tigers are at 3.5 – that type of differential is a once-in-a-lifetime sort of thing.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 10 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[8:00 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 (-120) – Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals
TEX: Mike Minor – L (3-3, 2.68 ERA/1.04 WHIP)
KC: Jorge Lopez – R (0-4, 6.07 ERA/1.49 WHIP)

The highest SK Trend Confidence rating of the night in MLB is the under in this game, and that makes plenty of sense with Mike Minor on the mound for the Rangers. The made-over lefty has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts and even held his own against the hottest lineup in baseball during his last start against the Astros.

KC has not fared well against left-handed pitching this season, owning the fourth-worst weighted on-base average (wOBA: .281) in that split. Not to mention, things haven’t gotten any better over the last 14 days.

While Jorge Lopez has given up a decent number of runs, he has gone at least six innings in five of the last seven outings. The Rangers’ offense hasn’t been particularly great against right-handed pitching, with a combined .274 wOBA over the last 14 days.

Minor is clearly the better pitcher here, so I expect him to get the win. Lopez can at least hold his own for a while and not let this thing get out of hand.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 6 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

[8:30 p.m. EST] Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5, -115)

We’ve got some NBA action for the people tonight! The top SK Trend Confidence rating is on the Bucks with the 6.5-point spread, considering they have covered eight of their nine games during the playoffs. I typically don’t bet many NBA games prior to tip-off, opting for the live bets, but tonight is a special occasion.

The Bucks’ roster is miles ahead of the Raptors, who are coming off an emotionally-draining seven-games series against the 76ers. Just as we saw last night in the Trail Blazers-Warriors matchup, Portland wasn’t able to muster enough energy for its new opponent. There’s something to be said about carrying over the same intensity from one series to another – it’s remarkably tough and takes time to make the necessary adjustments.

When looking at Toronto’s roster, there’s not much there. Kawhi Leonard is basically all the Raptors have working for them, and that was evident towards the end of that last series. Sure, Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry are fine players, but it didn’t even look like they wanted to touch the ball down the stretch of Game 7 against Philly.

Look for the Bucks to neutralize Kawhi and make the other role-playing Raptors beat them. Bucks big! #FearTheDear

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks: 102 – Toronto Raptors: 82 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 14

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 56-38-4 (60%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -144) at Detroit Tigers
HOU: Wade Miley – L (3-2, 3.18 ERA)
DET: Ryan Carpenter – L (0-1, 10.80 ERA)

Ryan Carpenter doesn’t have much MLB experience, but it hasn’t been good. After getting ripped for six runs in five innings during his season debut on Thursday, that upped Carpenter’s WHIP to 1.72 and an opposing batting average of .356 over 27 1/3 career innings of work. Yikes!

We always look at these IRT increases because they tell a story about the game before the first pitch has even been thrown. The Astros rank in the top three of nearly every advanced metric against left-handed pitching. Hence, why they had the highest IRT (5.6) at the open and now the biggest increase (+0.7) moving them to 6.3 – a full run more than three teams tied for second-most at 5.2.

Wade Miley should get plenty of run support from the Houston offense, which is always a benefit pitching for this team. The Astros have won the lefty’s last four starts by a combined score of 32-9, with all of them coming by two runs or more. Miley has four quality starts in his last five outings, and in the only misnomer, he went 5 2/3 innings and allowed one run.

The Astros are going to tear these Tigers apart, as evidenced by the massive -144 juice on the 1.5-run line.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 11 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 – Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins
TB: Charlie Morton – R (3-0, 2.64 ERA)
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (3-0, 2.11 ERA)

Both of these pitchers have been outstanding this season with a sub-three ERA and we’ve got the advanced metrics to prove how effective they’ll be tonight.

The Rays have the highest K-rate (30.6%) against left-handed pitching, while Caleb Smith has a 0.89 WHIP and 56 strikeouts over 42 2/3 innings. Any questions?

The Marlins have the highest K-rate (27.1%) with the lowest wOBA (.263), wRC+ (65) and ISO (.089) against right-handed pitching. Charlie Morton has been more hittable than Smith, but he’s allowed two runs or fewer in all but one of his eight starts this season. It never gets old ripping on Miami’s offense, which has posted two runs or fewer in eight of its last nine games.

I get it, taking the under on 6.5 runs will be about two-to-three hours of nervous reckoning, but you should have plenty of confidence with Morton and Smith going toe-to-toe.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 3 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals (-138 ML, 1.5-run line: +132)
TEX: Shelby Miller – R (1-2, 7.48 ERA)
KC: Danny Duffy – L (1-1, 3.06 ERA)

It’s quite telling to see the Royals in that grouping of teams tied for the second-highest IRT (5.2) on the slate. There’s a good reason, though, as the Rangers will have Shelby Miller on the mound. Miller does have a massive 1.92 WHIP and Kansas City has above-average advanced metrics against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. KC can beat up on Miller early and then get to the Texas bullpen, which has the sixth-highest xFIP (4.64) in all of baseball over the last 14 days.

Danny Duffy gets himself a fantastic matchup here too, as the Rangers have the third-highest K-rate (28.4%) against left-handed pitching this season. Not only that, but Texas is striking out at a 34.9% clip against lefties over the last 14 days.

I could go either way here on the moneyline or 1.5-run line with KC. You don’t have to risk much on the moneyline and it’s a nice little plus-score on the 1.5-run line.

* Final Score Prediction: Kansas City Royals: 7 – Texas Rangers: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, May 10

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 53-37-4 (59%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 11 (-102) – Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
LAA: Trevor Cahill – R (1-3, 6.95 ERA/1.46 WHIP)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-2, 7.43 ERA/1.87 WHIP)

To say Dan Straily isn’t enjoying his time at Camden Yards would be the understatement of the century. The veteran righty has allowed a 2.57 WHIP and eight homers over 14 innings of work there this season – somebody give this man a hug. Mike Trout (9-for-20, 2 doubles, HR), Albert Pujols (10-for-21, double, 2 HR) and Kole Calhoun (3-for-10, double, HR) will sure as hell be happy to see Straily out there tonight.

It should be no surprise that the Angels opened with the highest IRT (5.6) on tonight’s slate, but it has increased drastically up to 6.4 currently. Los Halos’ moneyline increase, from -152 to -178, is one of the highest on the entire day as well.

We dissected Straily’s awful life enough but let’s not leave Trevor Cahill out of the mix either, considering he’s allowed a 2.10 WHIP, 19 runs and nine homers over his last 15 2/3 innings of work. In those last four Cahill outings, the total runs scored have gone something like this: 16, 16, 11, 19. In the words of Dr. Evil, “Riiiiiiiiight.”

This is also the first 11-run total we’ve seen at Camden Yards this season, and there’s a damn good reason for it. We’ve got more than enough evidence here to support numerous cleats touching home plate this evening.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 10 – Baltimore Orioles: 8 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Texas Rangers at Houston Astros (-1.5, -128)
TEX: Lance Lynn – R (4-2, 5.75 ERA/1.57 WHIP)
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (5-1, 2.86 ERA/0.87 WHIP)

They don’t make pitchers like Justin Verlander anymore. For most guys, it’s all about pitch counts and saving innings to make sure they’ve got enough left in the tank at the end of the season. Not Verlander, who has thrown at least 94 pitches in every outing this year.

Like many other teams, the Rangers have had a difficult time figuring out one of the best pitchers in the game. This current roster has a 32.1% K-rate against Verlander and a very similar 32.6% whiff rate lifetime. While Texas did attribute to his worst outing this season (and it wasn’t even THAT bad), Verlander followed that up with a masterful seven-inning performance against them in the next meeting.

Over his last 30 outings, Verlander has never had two non-quality starts in back-to-back appearances on the mound. In simpler terms, this guy just doesn’t suck… after sucking. Verlander did allow four runs in his last start, so look for him to dominate in a familiar matchup that has been quite favorable before.

Lance Lynn takes the mound for the Rangers, and he hasn’t been at his best of late. His best outing recently came against a Mariners team that had their heads in the sand for that whole weekend. If we look past that game, Lynn has allowed at least 10 baserunners and had three strikeouts or fewer in three of his last four outings.

The Astros have the best 1.5 run-line odds of any team on tonight’s slate and it shouldn’t be a huge surprise with Verlander on the mound. Not to mention, Houston ranks at the top of nearly every advanced metric against right-handed pitching and Lynn has been getting hit more frequently by right-handed bats, which the Astros have plenty of.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 6 – Texas Rangers: 1 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (-1.5, -112)
DET: Tyson Ross – R (1-4, 5.34 ERA/1.62 WHIP)
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (4-2, 2.78 ERA/1.09 WHIP)

This could end up being the biggest mismatch of the night, so let’s take advantage of it. Good, great, grand, wonderful… everybody on the bus!

Jake Odorizzi has been filthy over his last four starts for the Twins, allowing only three runs over the last 24 1/3 innings – in the last two starts (vs. HOU, @NYY), he has pitched 13 scoreless innings, allowing six hits and five walks (0.85 WHIP) ball while striking out 15. The Tigers have struck out at a 29% clip against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days and that lines up perfectly their bottom-five advanced metrics in MLB against righties in nearly every category this season.

Tyson Ross goes for the Tigers, and he’s had some back issues to deal with of late. That could be a big reason for allowing 21 hits over his last 12 1/3 innings of work. Not only that, but the Tigers have lost each of his last two starts by a combined score of 26-7. Add in the fact that they lost 13-0 yesterday and you can pick up what I’m putting down. On the flip side, the Twins have won their last three games by a combined score of 20-1.

While we’re piling on Detroit, let’s not forget to mention that Minnesota’s .237 ISO (power metric) against right-handed pitching ranks first in all of baseball this season, and over the last 14 days it’s actually at .288 in that split – for reference, a .200 ISO is good and about .175 is the league average.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 7 – Detroit Tigers: 1 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, May 9

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 50-35-4 (59%) *

[6:35 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
SEA: Mike Leake – R (2-3, 4.91 ERA/1.51 WHIP)
NYY: J.A. Happ – L (1-3, 4.93 ERA/1.28 WHIP)

The finale of a four-game set takes place in The Bronx tonight, with each of the previous three reaching at least nine runs. I feel like we’ll see more of the same in this game, as both pitchers have some major trends working against them.

Mike Leake takes the mound for the Mariners and hasn’t been his best of late, allowing 23 hits, 16 runs (12 earned) and six homers over the last 17 innings. Right-handed batters have been ripping Leake to the tune of a .373 batting average, .391 on-base percentage, .716 slugging percentage and 1.108 OPS in 69 plate appearances this season. The Yanks’ projected lineup has seven righties in it tonight, including the first six. Not to mention, Seattle’s 41 errors (most in all of MLB, nine more than the three teams tied for second-most) could certainly lead to more runs for New York.

J.A. Happ hasn’t been at his best of late either, especially at home. The lefty is 0-3 with a 7.65 ERA in four starts at Yankee Stadium, with seven homers allowed in 20 innings and an opposing .321 batting average. In comparison, Happ is 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA in three road starts, with two homers allowed in 18 1/3 innings and an opposing .194 batting average. While the Mariners’ bats haven’t been rocking and rolling like they were over the first 15 games, they still rank in the top five of most advanced metrics against left-handed pitching.

The total has gone over in 12 of the last 16 (with one push) Mariners’ games while the Yanks have done the same in 12 of the last 17.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 7 – Seattle Mariners: 5 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Texas Rangers (+144) at Houston Astros
TEX: Mike Minor – L (3-2, 2.40 ERA/0.95 WHIP)
HOU: Wade Miley – L (2-2, 3.20 ERA/1.17 WHIP)

These matchups for the Lone Star Series get kind of wild, just as we saw back in April. However, wild in tonight’s sense means a pitcher’s duel, considering these teams have been posting a lot of overs lately.

Mike Minor looks like a new man, especially of late, as he’s gone at least seven innings in five of the last six starts – he has also posted 22 strikeouts over the last 15 innings. Houston has had plenty of struggles against Minor, as he’s notched a quality start in each of the last four meetings, including seven innings of scoreless ball en route to a win back in early April. The Astros could definitely struggle with Minor once again, considering these well below-average advanced metrics they’ve had against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

I can’t believe my eyes, but Wade Miley is actually turning into a well-rounded pitcher as well. The veteran lefty has been quite serviceable with three quality starts over his last four outings – the only misnomer he was one out shy. A few of these Rangers’ bats have had more success against lefties of late, so look for Miley to be slightly less effective than Minor.

The SK Trend Confidence rating is very high on the Rangers and the total going under in this game, and I whole-heartedly agree. Minor is at the top of his game right now, while I can definitely see Miley coming back down to Earth any day now. Today, being that day now.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 5 – Houston Astros: 2 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (2-1, 3.71 ERA/1.12 WHIP)
LAD: Rich Hill – L (0-0, 3.60 ERA/1.30 WHIP)

We’ve got a nice matchup of southpaws going down at Chavez Ravine tonight. Both teams have IRTs (implied run totals) below four runs that currently moving downward as we speak. Oh yes, I’m taking the under on this one.

Patrick Corbin has seen plenty of the Dodgers from his time with the Diamondbacks and only Justin Turner (12-for-29, three doubles, two homers) and Austin Barnes (3-for-10, two homers) have given him much trouble in this matchup. Turner is rocking and rolling at the moment, but he’s only one man. I wouldn’t be too worried about Barnes and his .120 batting average against lefties this season – miss me with that.

Aside from one bad game against a heavy right-handed Cardinals’ lineup, Corbin has notched a quality start in each of his other six outings this season. Given the atrocious nature of the Nats bullpen, you have to think Corbin mans up in this game and takes it at least seven innings for his club.

Rich Hill gets a juicy matchup against a Nationals team dealing with numerous injuries to significant offensive players. Hence, a big reason why they’ve scored three runs or fewer in 11 of the last 13 games. If that wasn’t enough, Washington’s projected lineup for tonight has a 27.7% K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

While Hill will likely only pitch about five innings (six at most), the Dodgers’ bullpen owns the fourth-best SIERA and fifth-best xFIP in all of baseball over the last 14 days. Look for Los Angeles to win a close game late in this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 3 – Washington Nationals: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, May 3

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 40-29-2 (58%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5, -146) at Baltimore Orioles
TB: Tyler Glasnow – R (5-0, 1.75 ERA)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-2, 6.75 ERA)

We’ve got ourselves a good ole fashioned mismatch. Tyler Glasnow of the Rays has been virtually unhittable this season, with a microscopic 0.94 WHIP and allowing two runs or fewer in each of his six starts. Glasnow got the win against these same Orioles a little more than two weeks ago, allowing seven hits and two runs while striking out three over seven innings.

The Orioles are 3-9 over their last 12 games, with all of those wins coming against the White Sox. Dan Straily takes the hill at home for Baltimore and it has not been pretty for him this season, despite pitching a limited amount of innings. A 1.66 WHIP is what Straily has coughed up over 18 2/3 innings of work (five appearances/four starts), and it doesn’t help either that the Orioles’ bullpen has the worst ERA (6.27) in all of baseball.

Tampa’s offense gets a major park upgrade going into Camden Yards and did score 17 runs at home against Baltimore in its three-game series in mid-April. It’s quite intriguing to see the Rays have the highest IRT (5.8) of any team on tonight’s slate, so look for the Rays to continue putting the hurt on Orioles’ pitching in this matchup.

Although it’s a massive amount (-146) to lay on the 1.5-run line, I feel like Vegas is already telling us how big of an ass kicking this is going to be. I have enough confidence in the Rays to win by multiple runs and not be forced to lay -230 on the moneyline. Not to mention, Tampa’s moneyline increase from -190 to -230 is the highest on the entire slate.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 8 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5, +118)
WSH: Jeremy Hellickson – R (2-0, 5.82 ERA)
PHI: Jerad Eickhoff – R (1-1, 2.12 ERA)

These injuries are starting to take a toll on the Nationals’ offense, which has scored three runs or less in six of their last seven games. Yesterday, they had a golden opportunity to put a world of hurt on a weak pitcher, Dakota Hudson of the Cardinals, and looked like a bunch of damn fools in the process – granted, they got the win (which I called), but it was not pretty. Already missing Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon, Washington was without Juan Soto yesterday for the second game in a row, and there’s no word yet on whether he’ll be in Friday’s lineup.

If Washington couldn’t lay into Hudson, tonight will seem even more difficult against Philly’s Jerad Eickhoff, who has been great since returning from injuries which caused him to miss nearly all of 2018. At Citizens Bank Park this season (vs. MIA, vs. NYM), Eickhoff has allowed only five hits, one walk and no runs while striking out 12 over 11 innings. With or without Soto, I can certainly see the Nationals struggling in any regard against the underrated righty.

One thing I really like about the Phils tonight is their leadoff hitter, Andrew McCutchen. In 19 career plate appearance against Hellickson, McCutchen is 4-for-12 with seven walks – that means he is very comfortable in the batter’s box against him. If McCutchen is getting on base, you can expect the rest of the order to follow suit. The Nationals’ bullpen also has a 5.87 ERA, which ranks second-worst in all of baseball.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 6 – Washington Nationals: 3 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers (-1.5, +120)
TOR: Trent Thornton – R (0-3, 5.08 ERA)
TEX: Mike Minor – L (3-2, 2.88 ERA)

Mike Minor has a 0.91 WHIP and is holding opposing batters to a .179 batting average. Not a good sign for the Blue Jays, who have the fourth-worst power metrics (ISO: .112) and seventh-worst weighted on-base average (wOBA: .287) against left-handed pitching this season. Minor is coming off a dazzling 13-strikeout performance over seven innings in Seattle and, in his last two home starts (vs. HOU, vs. LAA), has only allowed a combined eight hits, four walks and no runs while striking out 14 over 16 innings. Not to mention, Toronto played a very late game in Anaheim last night and will actually lose two hours of sleep time crossing two time zones into Arlington today.

Before his last outing, the Blue Jays had lost five straight games that Trent Thornton started. Tonight, he’ll have the displeasure of facing a Rangers team that is averaging 6.3 runs per game at home this season – tops in MLB.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 7 – Toronto Blue Jays: 2 *

[8:40 p.m. EST] Over 11 – Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
ARZ: Robbie Ray – L (1-1, 4.18 ERA)
COL: Tyler Anderson – L (0-2, 11.34 ERA)

The Rockies’ offense is clicking like no other at the moment, hanging 11 runs in back-to-back days at Milwaukee. In fact, Colorado has now scored at least seven runs in six of its last eight games. That’s great news for us bettors on the over, getting a hot offense against a pitcher they have clobbered historically. Robbie Ray has only won twice in 10 starts against the Rockies since 2016, and he allowed at least four runs in each of those outings. That’s actually a soft intro because Colorado has posted four runs or more in five of his last seven starts against them. The Rockies’ current roster has a combined .353 batting average, 1.095 OPS and 11 home runs in 153 plate appearances against Ray.

If that wasn’t enough, Tyler Anderson and his 11.34 ERA/2.16 WHIP take the mound for the Rockies this evening. All four of his starts have resulted in the game total reaching double-digits and, in two starts (vs. LAD, vs. WSH) at Coors Field this season, Anderson has allowed a combined 13 hits, six walks and 11 runs over seven innings.

I normally don’t condone grown men wearing baseball gloves to games, but if you’re sitting in the Coors Field outfield tonight, this might be the lone exception.

* Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks: 9 – Colorado Rockies: 8 *

MLB Betting Value Plays for Friday, April 19

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

MLB Betting Value Plays

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8 – Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (1-2, 7.98 ERA)
TB: Ryne Stanek – R (0-0, 1.93 ERA)

We talked about it the other day, but these Rays’ bullpens games have become a real burden on opposing offenses over the last couple of seasons. Ryne Stanek will “start” his fifth game of the season, second this week, but only go one or two innings before handing it off the bullpen with the fourth-best ERA (3.56) in the American League.

It will be interesting, though, to see how that Tampa Bay bullpen comes back one night after losing the finale of its three-game series against Baltimore. The Rays had a bullpen game on Thursday and wound up using six different relievers in the loss. Luckily, the Red Sox offense has been uncharacteristically stagnant this week, scoring a total of eight runs over the last four games.

Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound for Boston, and he’s coming off his best start of the season. The young lefty has been roughed up in two road starts to open the 2019 campaign, but everyone is well-aware that Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL in basically Fenway Park South. Not to mention, it’s an indoor environment that pitchers absolutely love.

The key here is the Implied Run Totals (IRT) for the two teams, which have both decreased by -0.3 each. When a decrease of that magnitude happens for both sides, it’s usually a great sign for the pitchers. It’s also worth noting that each of the last four Boston games has landed under the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 4 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 8.5 – Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
CHW: Carlos Rodon – L (2-2, 3.57 ERA)
DET: Jordan Zimmermann (0-2, 4.29 ERA)

Temperatures will be in the low 40s tonight in Detroit, but the wind will be blowing out to right-center field at a whopping 19 mph during the game. I’ve got nothing but love for conditions like that and Vegas has already taken notice, jumping the IRT up for both teams (White Sox: +0.4, Tigers: +0.6) and the game total an entire run, from 7.5 to 8.5. All the trends we look for on a daily basis are right there for the taking, and we’ll do exactly that.

It also helps that the White Sox have hit Jordan Zimmermann very well of the course of time, with their current roster owning a collective .311 batting average and .896 OPS against him.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 8 – Detroit Tigers: 4 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins (+104)
WSH: Anibal Sanchez – R (0-1, 4.86 ERA)
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (1-0, 2.65 ERA)

I’m going with the upset here, even though Vegas doesn’t think that it’ll be much of one. Miami’s moneyline had an increase of +21 (+125 to +104) and Washington’s had a decrease of -23 (-135 to -112) – respectively, two of the highest shifts on tonight’s slate, in separate directions.

Caleb Smith takes the hill for the Marlins, and he has been outstanding this season against stiff NL East competition. The dazzling lefty owns a 0.88 WHIP and has yet to allow a home run at Marlins Park in 11 innings of work.

Miami hasn’t been winning a lot of games but tonight’s moneyline odds are the best it has seen all season. Usually, that’s a good sign of things to come. Not to mention, Washington’s bullpen ranks dead-last in all of MLB – more than about 1.5 runs worse than Baltimore. Yikes!

Fish for the upset!

* Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins: 4 – Washington Nationals: 1 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-1.5, -140/-225 ML) at Texas Rangers
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (2-0, 3.52 ERA)
TEX: Drew Smyly – L (0-1, 7.15 ERA)

Last, but certainly not least, Justin Verlander is up to his usual shtick. The veteran righty owns a 1.04 WHIP and 30 strikeouts over 23 innings of work. Tonight, Verlander faces a Rangers team whose current roster owns a collective .286 on-base percentage and 31.8% K-rate against him.

Drew Smyly goes for the Rangers, and he’ll have his hands full against a very heavy right-handed lineup that can rip the ball all over Globe Life Park – one of the best yards for hitters in all of MLB. The Astros just had their 10-game winning streak snapped, in which they had a run differential of +29 in that span, with five of those last six victories coming by more than one run. You do get some relief by taking them as favorites on the 1.5-run line, as opposed to laying -225 on the moneyline.

I’d look for Houston to get back on the good foot tonight, especially with the pitching matchup having such a wide gap of credibility.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 7 – Texas Rangers: 2 *