Tag: Baltimore Orioles

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, June 1

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 89-71-4 (55.6%) *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 (-108) – San Francisco Giants (ML: -136) at Baltimore Orioles
SF: Shaun Anderson – R (0-1, 4.80 ERA/1.53 WHIP)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-6, 6.71 ERA/1.45 WHIP)

These two teams combined to score 11 runs in the first inning last night and it looks like we should see plenty of the same tonight.

For one, Orioles’ starter David Hess has been doing nothing but getting ripped all over the yard. To give you an idea of how bad it’s been, the righty has allowed four runs or more in seven of his last nine outings – yikes! Not to mention, Hess has now allowed 10 homers in his last 19 2/3 innings of work.

Shaun Anderson hasn’t been much better, albeit in only three career starts thus far. The young righty has allowed a total of 17 hits and eight runs (six earned) over his last 10 innings of work. All three of the games he’s pitched in so far have been at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park in San Francisco – Anderson will not have that luxury today, pitching in one of (if not) the best hitting parks in baseball.

All in all, we’re looking at two starting pitchers that have been touched up quite a bit in their time in the Majors. Probably a good reason why Vegas increased the game-total from 9.5 to 10.5, with both teams subsequently seeing their IRTs raised as well – Giants: +0.6, Orioles: +0.3. Together, all of those increases usually add up to a lot of runs.

Giants’ games have gone over the total in seven of the last nine, while Orioles’ games have done the same in eight of their last 11. I’m also going to take the Giants’ moneyline with the bigger IRT increase coming into this one.

* Final Score Prediction: San Francisco Giants: 8 – Baltimore Orioles: 6 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves (1.5-run line: -142)
DET: Daniel Norris – L (2-3, 4.18 ERA/1.39 WHIP)
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (5-1, 1.07 ERA/0.89 WHIP)

OK, let’s try this again. Earlier this week the Braves had a zaftig 0.8 IRT increase (just as they do today), but it was actually the Nationals that ended up having the big offensive night. I’m willing to bet that won’t happen against Mike Soroka, who has been one of the most dominant pitchers in all of baseball, allowing one run or fewer in all eight of his starts this season.

Probably a good reason why Atlanta brings the highest moneyline increase (-215 to -255) of the day into this game.

The Tigers ripped Mike Foltynewicz to shreds last night, but that’s even more reason for the Braves to come out strong in this one. I find it very hard to believe that one of the league’s worst teams will come into Atlanta and win two straight games. Especially with Soroka pitching at such an elite level.

While the Tigers got their kicks off last night, the Braves will look to do the same today. Atlanta owns the sixth-best wOBA (.338) against left-handed pitching this season. On the flip side, Detroit has the second-worst wOBA (.282) against right-handed pitching.

This should be a nice and easy win for the Braves today, so I’m going with the 1.5-run line here.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 7 – Detroit Tigers: 1 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, May 26

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 78-59-4 *

[2:15 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 (-118) – New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals
NYY: Domingo German – R (9-1, 2.60 ERA/0.98 WHIP)
KC: Danny Duffy – L (3-1, 3.45 ERA/

Domingo German has been just what the Yankees needed this season, given all their injuries. It is interesting, though, that this KC team is the only one to hand him a loss this season. German still pitched well in that game, allowing three runs over six innings, but I would look for him to have added motivation in this matchup.

Danny Duffy has been much better since the start of May, with a 3-0 record and 3.04 ERA in four starts. It’s crazy, but Duffy has actually been much better against right-handed batters this season, allowing an opposing batting average of .229 and .690 OPS.

Given the recent performances of both starters and the talented Yankees’ bullpen, I’m going with the under in this game. Ultimately, that should be the difference in the game as well.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 4 – Kansas City Royals: 3 *

[2:20 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-110) – Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
CIN: Tanner Roark – R (3-3, 3.51 ERA/1.42 WHIP)
CHC: Jose Quintana – L (4-3, 3.30 ERA/1.22 WHIP)

After two games with double-digit run totals, Vegas placed a 7.5-total on this game featuring two crafty veteran pitchers. The weather won’t be inducive to offense, as the temps will be in the upper-50s with the wind blowing in at about 10 mph. Also, the opening total dropped from 8.0 to 7.5, with the team’s IRT subsequently dropping as well – Reds: -0.3, Cubs: -0.2.

Given the microscopic run total, I’m banking on Jose Quintana to have a huge start today. Cincy’s offense has been struggling mightily against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days, with a .198 wOBA and .087 ISO. Quintana has been legit over his last eight starts, not allowing more than three runs in any of those starts.

In Quintana’s last three starts, the game total has only maxed out at seven.

On the other side, Tanner Roark has been solid in the month of May with an ERA just under 3.00. What is particularly appealing about Roark is the fact that he’s only allowed two homers in 51 1/3 innings of work this season.

I’m trusting the numbers from Vegas and the SK Trend Confidence rating, which is the highest on the slate, for this total going under.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 4 – Cincinnati Reds: 2 *

[3:00 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockies (1.5-run line: -152)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-6, 6.75 ERA/1.41 WHIP)
COL: German Marquez – R (5-2, 3.38 ERA/1.11 WHIP)

Sometimes the numbers speak to you… and sometimes they scream right in your face. The Rockies have a 7.9 IRT today, and that’s a +0.6 increase from the initial number, which was at 7.3. That current number is clearly the highest IRT of the MLB season. Colorado also had a moneyline increase from -262 to -316, the largest on the slate.

There’s a good reason for that zaftig IRT, as the Orioles have allowed 113 homers – 20 more than any other team in MLB. Baltimore’s starter David Hess has been ripped consistently, allowing nine homers in his last 15 innings of work. Not to mention, Hess has a K-prop of 4.0, with the juice on the under at -150 – that’s basically saying he won’t last long today.

You very well could take the over (11.5, -118) in this game, considering Rockies’ starter German Marquez has allowed at least seven hits in five of his last seven starts. Marquez did have his best outing of the season last time out against the Pirates, but that was at PNC Park.

At Coors Field this season, Marquez does have a 5.34 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in five starts and Baltimore hasn’t necessarily been terrible with the bats. Over the last 14 days, the Orioles have a .350 wOBA and .225 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Although it’s more money to lay, I do have more faith in the Rockies totally thrashing the Orioles today. Let’s take Colorado on the 1.5-run line.

* Final Score Prediction: Colorado Rockies: 9 – Baltimore Orioles: 3 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, May 23 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 77-54-4 *

[12:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals (moneyline: -153) at New York Mets
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (4-3, 3.32 ERA/0.98 WHIP)
NYM: Steven Matz – L (3-3, 3.96 ERA/1.27 WHIP)

The Nationals have the largest moneyline increase of the day, going from -121 to -153. Stephen Strasburg will be tasked with helping Washington avoid the four-game sweep, and there are more than a few things working in his favor.

For one, Strasburg has thrown five quality starts in his last six outings. His 2.01 ERA in six daytime games and 17 strikeouts against the Mets in 12 2/3 innings have already played out well this season. Strasburg will also benefit from an all right-handed Mets’ lineup today – righties have a dismal .257 on-base percentage against him while striking out 31.4% of the time this season.

Stephen Matz has some rough outings under his belt of late. Not to mention, the Nationals have a solid .343 wOBA and very-low 14.1% K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon, batting No. 1 and No. 3 in the lineup, have put plenty of hurt on Matz in the past.

Looking at the implied run totals (IRT), the Nationals increased +0.2 while the Mets decreased -0.2. That, along with the moneyline increase for Washington, makes it a likely scenario that the four-game sweep will be avoided.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 5 – New York Mets: 2 *

[12:35 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-110) – New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
NYY: Masahiro Tanaka – R (3-3, 3.09 ERA/1.13 WHIP)
BAL: Dylan Bundy – R (2-5, 4.66 ERA/1.27 WHIP)

We might actually have an under in this series for once. After seeing a total of double-digits in three straight games, it’s time for a good pitching performance in the daytime.

Masahiro Tanaka has been outstanding in his last three starts, allowing a 0.78 WHIP and only three runs over 19 1/3 innings of work. The Orioles did plenty of work on the lefty CC Sabathia last night, but they still have a .270 wOBA and 27.1% K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Tanaka will also benefit from having Austin Romine, a much better defensive-minded catcher, behind the plate today.

It’s always a scary proposition taking the under in a game where Dylan Bundy is pitching, but the Yanks are giving Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres the day off today. These two guys have combined to hit 20 homers against the Orioles this season, so luckily, we’ve got that out of the equation. Bundy has actually allowed no earned runs in two of his last three starts.

Since it’s a day game, most people probably won’t even realize that Sanchez and Torres are out of the lineup. Don’t be one of those people and catch some value on the under in this game!

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 5 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers (1.5-run line: +132)
MIA: Trevor Richards – R (1-5, 4.44 ERA/1.38 WHIP)
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (4-4, 3.41 ERA/1.01 WHIP)

This is the Tigers’ highest moneyline odds (-160) of the season – their previous high of -145 was a game they won as well. It makes plenty of sense, though, with Matthew Boyd on the mound. The lefty ran into two tough opponents (vs. HOU, vs. OAK) in his last two starts but that certainly won’t be the case today against the Marlins, who owns league-worst advanced metrics against lefties. Not to mention, Miami has a putrid .223 wOBA and .083 ISO in that split over the last 14 days.

On the other side, Trevor Richards will be pitching for the Marlins – and that’s great news for the Tigers. Richards has allowed two homers in four of his last five starts, so it’s no surprise either that the Marlins have lost all but one of his nine starts this season.

The total jumped up an entire run from 8.0 to 9.0, and you have to believe that’s because of the Tigers and their impending matchup against Richards. Look for Boyd to fry the fish and get the easy win in the process.

* Final Score Prediction: Detroit Tigers: 7 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 22

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 74-51-4 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10 (-118) – New York Yankees (1.5-run line -168) at Baltimore Orioles
NYY: CC Sabathia – L (2-1, 2.97 ERA/1.21 WHIP)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-3, 8.51 ERA/1.89 WHIP)

Once again, the top SK Trend Confidence rating is the over in the Orioles-Yankees game. And it’s not hard to see why, with Dan Straily taking the mound for Baltimore. The veteran righty has gotten lit up all season, especially at Camden Yards, allowing nine homers and a 2.35 WHIP over 18 1/3 innings. Straily has allowed a total 15 runs over his last 12 innings of work and the opposition has scored at least seven runs in each of his last four starts.

The Yankees’ offense is rolling, with a double-digit run output in each of their last three games. Much like last night, the best value is going with the over, considering the Yanks’ crazy moneyline (-235), but I don’t mind taking them on the 1.5-run line (-166). Whenever we see so much juice on that 1.5-run line, it almost always tends to win.

CC Sabathia has been on top of his game this season, but if there is a knock on him, it’s the 4.70 ERA and .237 opposing average he’s allowed on the road. The Orioles have hit their fair share of homers against the Yanks this season, but it’s not much of a surprise, considering both teams play in extreme hitter’s parks.

Look for the Yanks to continue adding on to the hurt Straily’s been feeling at Camden Yards this season. But, of course, we’re also looking for the Orioles to chip in a few as well on the total.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 10 – Baltimore Orioles: 4 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 (-114) – Washington Nationals at New York Mets
WSH: Max Scherzer – R (2-5, 3.72 ERA/1.19 WHIP)
NYM: Jacob deGrom – R (3-5, 3.98 ERA/1.17 WHIP)

Sure, both guys haven’t been at the top of their games for most of this season. However, the history of each pitcher against the opposition is just too good to pass up and the SK Trend Confidence rating is high on the total going under.

Max Scherzer will certainly be determined to take down the reigning Cy Young award winner and his squad. The Mets’ current roster has a combined .165 batting average, .219 on-base percentage and 38% K-rate against him lifetime. Although Scherzer has thrown a quality start in six of the last seven outings, it’s amazing to believe that the Nationals are only 2-8 in his 10 starts this season.

Jacob deGrom got absolutely waxed in his last start, which came against the lowly Marlins. We can call that bad luck or just a case of Miami having a good history against deGrom, but I’ll be willing to overlook that. Main reason – the Nationals’ current roster has a combined .175 batting average, .212 on-base percentage and 34.5% K-rate against deGrom.

Given the history of these pitchers against each team, we won’t see much scoring in this game. I’ll give the Mets the final advantage with the better bullpen and this odd trend of the Nationals losing the majority of Scherzer’s starts.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 3 – Washington Nationals: 2 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 8.5 (-106) – Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -166)
CHW: Ivan Nova – R (2-4, 7.42 ERA/1.80 WHIP)
HOU: Gerrit Cole – R (4-4, 3.56 ERA/1.04 WHIP)

Ivan Nova has been absolutely ripped to shreds this season, so it’s not a good sign for him to be facing an Astros team that ranks at, or near, the top of every advanced metric against right-handed pitching. While the veteran righty has allowed at least eight baserunners in each one of his nine starts this season, teams like the Blue Jays and Indians weren’t able to capitalize with runs – don’t expect Nova to be so lucky tonight against the Astros.

Gerrit Cole has only allowed one run over his last four starts, and I would expect that to continue today against a White Sox team that has scored two runs or fewer in four of the last six games. It’s interesting to note, a James McCann and Yonder Alonso have a decent history against Cole, so maybe they can step into one and help us out with the total.

With all that information on today’s starting pitchers and opposing offenses, we should fully expect the Astros to beat Nova over the head and the cover the total as well. With a little luck on our side, maybe (JUST MAYBE!) the White Sox can add a run or two.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 9 – Chicago White Sox: 2 *

[9:45 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-116) – Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants
ATL: Max Fried – L (6-2, 2.86 ERA/1.13 WHIP)
SF: Jeff Samardzija – R (2-2, 3.69 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

We’ve got a heavy trend of totals going under with both sides and they’ll be playing in one of the worst parks in baseball for offense. What a perfect match.

Jeff Samardzija gets a difficult matchup against the Braves, but he has been much better at Oracle Park this season, posting a 2.61 ERA and allowing an opposing batting average of .211. Atlanta’s offense has been somewhat neutralized since coming to San Francisco and its last four games have actually gone under the total. That also makes eight of the last 12 for the Braves that have suffered the same fate.

The key to the under tonight is the California kid, Max Fried, and his matchup against a Giants team that usually always struggles on offense. San Francisco games have gone under the total in three straight and in five of the last six. Fried is coming off one of his best outings of the season, throwing six innings of shutout ball while allowing two hits, two walks and striking out five.

All in all, the ballpark is going to help us more than anything, but the two pitchers certainly help the situation. Look for Atlanta to get the win, with Fried pitching a solid game.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 4 – San Francisco Giants: 2 *

MLB & NBA Playoffs Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 21

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

NBA Playoffs Pick: Under 217 (-110) – Milwaukee Bucks (-2.5, 110) at Toronto Raptors

The two highest SK Trend Confidence ratings (both B+) of the night in NBA are the Bucks and the under.

It took two overtimes for the Raptors to finally defeat the Bucks, and also for the total to go over in Game 3 – what a heartbreaker! However, it’s worth noting how big of a swing the spread is from Game 3 to Game 4, making it a five-point jump in a favor of Milwaukee.

One of the main reasons these Bucks have been so successful is their head coach Mike Budenholzer. It’s true, we typically see Milwaukee get out to slow starts, but we also see this team finish strong. Budenholzer has made the necessary adjustments multiple times throughout these playoffs, most notably after the Bucks’ only loss of these playoffs before Sunday night. Milwaukee came out in Game 2 of the second round against the Celtics and wiped them off the map for the entirety of that series.

The Bucks are 10-2 in these playoffs, covering the spread in each one of their wins. I expect them to remind the Raptors who had the NBA’s No. 1 defensive efficiency rating during the regular season. Budenholzer should have more adjustments to bottle up a fatigued Kawhi Leonard, who is dealing with a slight leg injury.

#FearTheDeer! #BuckNasty!

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks: 102 – Toronto Raptors: 88 *

* 2019 MLB Record: 73-48-4 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-104) – New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
NYY: Domingo German – R (8-1, 2.50 ERA/0.95 WHIP)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-5, 5.58 ERA/1.29 WHIP)

Whatever the Yankees are doing against David Hess, they need to keep on doing it. In his last two starts against the Evil Empire, Hess has allowed seven homers in 11 innings of work – yikes! Once Hess leaves the game, it doesn’t get any better, as the Orioles’ entire team has allowed an MLB-high 97 homers in 47 games.

OK, great. So, we know where most of the offense is coming from.

The Orioles will likely have a tougher time against Domingo German, but it is their second time seeing him over the last six days. German’s last two road starts (@SF, @TB) haven’t been great, as he’s allowed 10 hits, three walks and seven runs over 11 innings of work. Not to mention, Baltimore has done a fine job offensively against New York in their matchups this season.

Clearly, the way to go here would be betting the Yankees, but their moneyline (-250) and 1.5-run line (-162) odds are a bit pricey. Six of the 10 Orioles-Yankees matchups this season have gone over the total, and we’re looking at a situation where it’ll be seven of 11 at the end of the night.

The SK Trend Confidence rating has an A-grade for the over at 10.5, which is the highest grade of any game on today’s MLB schedule. Luckily for us, the total is actually sitting at 9.5, so that speaks heavy volumes to how many runs we should see tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 10 – Baltimore: 4 *

[7:07 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-110) – Boston Red Sox (1.5-run line: +100) at Toronto Blue Jays
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (4-2, 4.89 ERA/1.43 WHIP)
TOR: Marcus Stroman – R (1-6, 2.95 ERA/1.29 WHIP)

Speaking of high grades, the Red Sox and the total going under all both get a B+ for tonight’s game. We’ve got plenty of reasons to believe so.

For one, the Blue Jays’ offense has been brutal lately, especially against left-handed pitching. Against southpaws over the last 14 days, Toronto has an anemic .197 wOBA and .067 ISO. Overall this season against lefties, they rank third-worst in MLB with a .268 wOBA and .107 ISO.

Not only has their offense been bad, but the Blue Jays have been even worse for Marcus Stroman. The righty’s numbers aren’t bad at all, but his team has scored three runs or fewer (mostly fewer) in seven of his 10 starts this season.

On the other side, the Red Sox have won each of the last seven games that Eduardo Rodriguez has started, with six of those wins coming by two runs or more. Despite losing two games to the Astros over the weekend, the Red Sox have seemingly turned the corner with a 14-5 record over the last 19 games.

It’s good news for the under on this game, as the total dropped from 9.0 to 8.5. The Blue Jays’ IRT dropped -0.4, while the Red Sox move slightly downward to -0.1.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 6 – Toronto Blue Jays: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-126) – Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (3-1, 2.25 ERA/0.92 WHIP)
DET: Spencer Turnbull – R (2-3, 2.40 ERA/1.25 WHIP)

The moneyline number for this game is quite interesting, considering Caleb Smith is probably the best pitcher in baseball that no one gives a damn about. Nonetheless, Tigers’ starting pitcher Spencer Turnbull should have a solid outing tonight — Hell, mostly everyone going against the Marlins does. All in all, I think the most likely outcome here is the total going under 7.5 runs.

Let’s start with Smith, who has allowed two runs or fewer in all but one of his eight starts this season – that one misnomer, he allowed three runs. Because the Marlins’ offense is so atrocious, the lefty has had to do literally everything imaginable to keep this team in ball games. In fact, six of Smith’s eight starts this season have had seven total runs or fewer scored in the entire game.

Not to be outdone, Turnbull has only allowed five earned runs over his last six starts. As mentioned before, the Marlins’ offense is terrible, and over the last 14 days, they have a .255 wOBA and 30.3% K-rate against right-handed pitching. Overall this season, Miami ranks near- or dead-last in almost every advanced metric against right-handed pitching.

This game will likely come down to the bullpens late, but I’ll say that the Tigers get the win, based on the awkward moneyline in their favor.

* Final Score Prediction: Detroit Tigers: 3 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, May 18

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 68-43-4 (61.3%) *

[4:05 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies (1.5-run line: +114)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (3-2, 5.35 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (3-0, 4.86 ERA/1.55 WHIP)

The Phillies have the highest IRT (+0.7) and second-highest moneyline (-155 to -176) increases on the day. And that’s a good sign, considering Aaron Nola is on the hill for Philly. Aside from a rough outing against the powerful Brewers, Nola held opposing teams to one run in each of his previous three starts.

Meanwhile, these Rockies are striking out at a 31.8% clip over the last seven days, which is the second-highest in all of baseball. Now that the weather is starting to get a little warmer in Philly, we should see Nola get a better grip on the baseball, thus giving him more movement on those breaking pitches.

Antonio Senzatela has been much better on the road (3.31 ERA) than at home (7.27 ERA) this season, but Vegas has already spoken with the increases for the Phillies today. I have a feeling Rhys Hoskins is about to break out of his recent skid, as Senzatela has allowed more extra-base hits to right-handed hitters. Not to mention, Philly has quite a few righties that can do the same with Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, JT Realmuto and Maikel Franco.

Ultimately, I don’t mind the over in this game, considering the bullpens for both sides rank in the bottom third of MLB over the last seven days, but Philly on the 1.5-run line is where I’m planting my flag.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 7 – Colorado Rockies: 3 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 (-122) – Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians
BAL: John Means – L (5-3, 2.33 ERA/1.03 WHIP)
CLE: Adam Plutko – R (season debut)

Progressive Field is one of the few stadiums in baseball that has to deal with these pesky shadows for mid-day games. That’s bad news for an Indians team that already has the fourth-highest K-rate (28.1%) against left-handed pitching.

Hopefully, those shadows help Adam Plutko, who will be making his season debut after pitching down in Triple-A. He did make 17 appearances (12 starts) last season, going 4-5 with a 5.28 ERA, but did pitch well against this Baltimore team during that stretch.

All in all, the background conditions should be able to give a nice boost to both pitchers today early on, and that should hold off the double-digit total for long enough. The SK Trend Confidence rating also likes this game as one of its top plays today.

* Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles: 4 – Cleveland Indians: 3 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels (1.5-run line: +106)
KC: Jakob Junis – R (3-4, 5.77 ERA/1.55 WHIP)
LAA: Griffin Canning – R (1-1, 5.65 ERA/1.33 WHIP)

A lot of people that I trust are big on this Griffin Canning kid, and I can pick up what they’re putting down. Despite losing at hitter-friendly Camden Yards in his last outing, Canning has posted at least six strikeouts in all three of his starts this season. The Royals’ offense has been quite stagnant of late, with only four runs over the last three games. Prior to yesterday’s two-run output, KC posted one run or fewer in four of five games.

Jakob Junis has not been good this season, allowing at least eight baserunners in seven of his last eight starts. That’s not good news for an Angels team that has a massive .401 wOBA and .219 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Just as we did yesterday, we’re going with the Angels big here.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 8 – Kansas City Royals: 3 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, May 16

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 61-38-4 (61.6%) *

[6:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-104) – Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians (1.5-run line: -152)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-3, 8.23 ERA/1.83 WHIP)
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (4-2, 3.02 ERA/1.11 WHIP)

Dan Straily has actually been solid away from Camden Yards this season. Only two of his seven starts have come on the road and they were against the Red Sox and Twins, two of the better offenses in baseball. Straily allowed only one earned run over nine innings in those games.

It’s not like today’s opponent has been crushing the ball either. The Indians rank third-worst in all of MLB with a .282 wOBA (weight on-base average) against right-handed pitching. Over the last 14 days against righties, Cleveland’s projected lineup owns a .320 wOBA and .099 ISO – both of which, are not good at all. Not to mention, seven of the last eight Indians’ games have gone under the total.

Now, the real reason for the total going under is Trevor Bauer in a fantastic matchup against the Orioles. Bauer had a fantastic outing in Oakland last time out after two uncharacteristically-bad starts against lesser teams (MIA, CHW). This is still one of the best pitchers in baseball taking the mound against an offense that has scored three runs or fewer in seven of the last 10 games.

Just like the majority of Indians’ games coming in under the total, Orioles’ contests have suffered the same fate in 12 of their last 16, including each of the last four. Also, like Cleveland, Baltimore’s projected lineup is struggling against right-handed pitching with a .257 wOBA and .119 ISO over the last 14 days.

The SK Trend Confidence rating has the under in this game as the top MLB play of the night, and the zaftig juice (-152) on the 1.5-run line is a pretty good indicator that the Indians will get the comfortable win.

* Final Score Projection: Cleveland Indians: 6 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

[6:40 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-114) – Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (moneyline: -135)
CHC: Jose Quintana – L (4-2, 3.50 ERA/1.25 WHIP)
CIN: Luis Castillo – R (4-1, 1.76 ERA/0.99 WHIP)

This may seem like a scary proposition with an 8.5-run total at one of the best hitting parks in baseball, but we do have two elite pitchers in solid form. The total has decreased incrementally in each game of this series, so we are trending in the right direction here.

I’m expecting a big performance from Luis Castillo, given the fact that Cincy’s moneyline odds have the second-highest increase (-110 to -135) of the day. The electric righty has been efficient in every split this season, especially with a 2-1 record and 1.65 ERA in five home starts, while going 4-0 with a 1.23 ERA in six nighttime starts.

Chicago had a streak of six straight games with the total going under snapped last night. Even though they posted five runs on Wednesday, four of them came via the home run – they won’t have that fortune tonight against Castillo.

Jose Quintana will be able to keep this Reds’ offense off the scoreboard for most of the night. Against tough competition (MIL, STL, ARZ, LAD), the lefty has been able to hold these team to three runs or fewer in each of the last four starts. Cincy has done fairly well against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days, and that is likely how they get the win, but I think JQ at least holds them to around three or four runs.

The SK Trend Confidence rating likes the under more than any other outcome in this game, but the massive moneyline increase for the Reds is quite telling here as well.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 5 – Chicago Cubs: 2 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-110) – Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (moneyline: -125)
PIT: Trevor Williams – R (2-1, 3.40 ERA/1.15 WHIP)
SD: Eric Lauer – L (2-4, 5.75 ERA/1.45 WHIP)

Eric Lauer is coming off his worst start of the season, which was a very tough road matchup at Coors Field, but the guy comes through when gifted with favorable matchups. The Pirates head to San Diego with MLB’s worst ISO (.091), third-worst wOBA (.266) and fifth-highest K-rate (28.2%) against left-handed pitching. Over the last 14 days, Pittsburgh has a .023 ISO – for reference, that’s a level or two above stepping to the plate without a bat.

San Diego’s offense hasn’t been much better, striking out at a 33% clip against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days – the highest of any split on the day. Trevor Williams needs all the help he can get, after allowing 25 hits over his last 19 innings of work. The righty has been able to keep runs off the board, for the most part, but those baserunners could ultimately be the determining factor in who wins tonight.

The game total has dropped a half-run, while the Padres (-0.2) and Pirates’ (-0.3) IRTs have dropped as well. Look for the Padres to take a close, low-scoring game.

* Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres: 3 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, May 10

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 53-37-4 (59%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 11 (-102) – Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
LAA: Trevor Cahill – R (1-3, 6.95 ERA/1.46 WHIP)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-2, 7.43 ERA/1.87 WHIP)

To say Dan Straily isn’t enjoying his time at Camden Yards would be the understatement of the century. The veteran righty has allowed a 2.57 WHIP and eight homers over 14 innings of work there this season – somebody give this man a hug. Mike Trout (9-for-20, 2 doubles, HR), Albert Pujols (10-for-21, double, 2 HR) and Kole Calhoun (3-for-10, double, HR) will sure as hell be happy to see Straily out there tonight.

It should be no surprise that the Angels opened with the highest IRT (5.6) on tonight’s slate, but it has increased drastically up to 6.4 currently. Los Halos’ moneyline increase, from -152 to -178, is one of the highest on the entire day as well.

We dissected Straily’s awful life enough but let’s not leave Trevor Cahill out of the mix either, considering he’s allowed a 2.10 WHIP, 19 runs and nine homers over his last 15 2/3 innings of work. In those last four Cahill outings, the total runs scored have gone something like this: 16, 16, 11, 19. In the words of Dr. Evil, “Riiiiiiiiight.”

This is also the first 11-run total we’ve seen at Camden Yards this season, and there’s a damn good reason for it. We’ve got more than enough evidence here to support numerous cleats touching home plate this evening.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 10 – Baltimore Orioles: 8 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Texas Rangers at Houston Astros (-1.5, -128)
TEX: Lance Lynn – R (4-2, 5.75 ERA/1.57 WHIP)
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (5-1, 2.86 ERA/0.87 WHIP)

They don’t make pitchers like Justin Verlander anymore. For most guys, it’s all about pitch counts and saving innings to make sure they’ve got enough left in the tank at the end of the season. Not Verlander, who has thrown at least 94 pitches in every outing this year.

Like many other teams, the Rangers have had a difficult time figuring out one of the best pitchers in the game. This current roster has a 32.1% K-rate against Verlander and a very similar 32.6% whiff rate lifetime. While Texas did attribute to his worst outing this season (and it wasn’t even THAT bad), Verlander followed that up with a masterful seven-inning performance against them in the next meeting.

Over his last 30 outings, Verlander has never had two non-quality starts in back-to-back appearances on the mound. In simpler terms, this guy just doesn’t suck… after sucking. Verlander did allow four runs in his last start, so look for him to dominate in a familiar matchup that has been quite favorable before.

Lance Lynn takes the mound for the Rangers, and he hasn’t been at his best of late. His best outing recently came against a Mariners team that had their heads in the sand for that whole weekend. If we look past that game, Lynn has allowed at least 10 baserunners and had three strikeouts or fewer in three of his last four outings.

The Astros have the best 1.5 run-line odds of any team on tonight’s slate and it shouldn’t be a huge surprise with Verlander on the mound. Not to mention, Houston ranks at the top of nearly every advanced metric against right-handed pitching and Lynn has been getting hit more frequently by right-handed bats, which the Astros have plenty of.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 6 – Texas Rangers: 1 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (-1.5, -112)
DET: Tyson Ross – R (1-4, 5.34 ERA/1.62 WHIP)
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (4-2, 2.78 ERA/1.09 WHIP)

This could end up being the biggest mismatch of the night, so let’s take advantage of it. Good, great, grand, wonderful… everybody on the bus!

Jake Odorizzi has been filthy over his last four starts for the Twins, allowing only three runs over the last 24 1/3 innings – in the last two starts (vs. HOU, @NYY), he has pitched 13 scoreless innings, allowing six hits and five walks (0.85 WHIP) ball while striking out 15. The Tigers have struck out at a 29% clip against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days and that lines up perfectly their bottom-five advanced metrics in MLB against righties in nearly every category this season.

Tyson Ross goes for the Tigers, and he’s had some back issues to deal with of late. That could be a big reason for allowing 21 hits over his last 12 1/3 innings of work. Not only that, but the Tigers have lost each of his last two starts by a combined score of 26-7. Add in the fact that they lost 13-0 yesterday and you can pick up what I’m putting down. On the flip side, the Twins have won their last three games by a combined score of 20-1.

While we’re piling on Detroit, let’s not forget to mention that Minnesota’s .237 ISO (power metric) against right-handed pitching ranks first in all of baseball this season, and over the last 14 days it’s actually at .288 in that split – for reference, a .200 ISO is good and about .175 is the league average.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 7 – Detroit Tigers: 1 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 8

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 48-34-3 (58.5%) *

[6:10 p.m. EST] Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (-1.5, +108)
CHW: Reynaldo Lopez – R (2-4, 6.69 ERA/1.76 WHIP)
CLE: Shane Bieber – R (2-1, 3.16 ERA/1.03 WHIP)

OK, enough is enough already with these White Sox taking games against the Indians. Chicago got the first two games of this series and now trot out Reynaldo Lopez and his 1.76 WHIP, which ranks second-worst of any starting pitcher in baseball with at least 30 innings under his belt. If Cleveland ever had a pitcher to break out of its recent offensive funk, Lopez is certainly the guy to help out.

The Tribe is rolling out Shane Bieber, who has notched a quality start in five of his last six outings. While the White Sox did hang nine runs on Monday night against Trevor Bauer, they have scored two runs or fewer in four of the last five games.

Call this revenge, call this a team that’s due – call it what you will. The Indians are going to make up for their recent misfortunes in a big way today.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 6 – Chicago White Sox: 2 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (-1.5, -166) at Baltimore Orioles
BOS: Chris Sale – L (5.25 ERA/1.28 WHIP)
BAL: Andrew Cashner – R (4.71 ERA/1.46 WHIP)

The Red Sox have the highest moneyline increase (-245 to -281) on the slate and massive -166 odds on the 1.5 run-line. Needless to say, things are shaping up nicely for the defending champs on the road tonight.

Chris Sale is coming off his best outing of the season – no coincidence that it came against his former team – as he pitched six innings of scoreless ball with 10 strikeouts. The lanky lefty is 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA in seven starts against the Orioles since he joined the Red Sox. Not to mention, Baltimore has the lowest IRT (3.1) on the slate and have struck out at a zaftig 27.3% clip against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Andrew Cashner takes the mound for Bird Gang, and he’s been prone to have a surprisingly good outing every now and again. Luckily, his outings don’t last too long, with only two of his seven starts going for six innings or more. That’s good news, considering the Orioles bullpen has the worst ERA (6.13) in the American League and second-worst in all of baseball.

I expect the Red Sox to get off to a slow start offensively and then finally hammer this thing home late, with Sale, of course, keeping the Orioles off the scoreboard for most of the night. The SK Trend Confidence for the Red Sox on the 1.5 run-line is one of the highest on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros (-1.5, -110)
KC: Jorge Lopez – R (0-3, 5.09 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
HOU: Brad Peacock – R (2-2, 5.28 ERA/1.21 WHIP)

The Astros got rolled up and smoked in front of their home fans last night, so I’d expect them to come out with a focused mindset this evening. Houston ranks in the top five of MLB in nearly every advanced metric against right-handed pitching, so there’s no surprise that its 5.7 IRT is the highest on tonight’s slate.

Royals pitcher Jorge Lopez hasn’t fared well of late, allowing four runs in each of his last four starts. If that wasn’t bad enough, Kansas City has lost six of his seven starts this season.

Brad Peacock takes the mound for Houston, and he just simply hasn’t been at his best this season, as was evident in that last start against the Twins. While we don’t look at the Royals as a powerhouse offense, they’re a pesky bunch that gets the job done in a variety of ways. Hell, they did just post 12 runs last night.

I feel like the Astros on the 1.5 run-line is a solid play, but the over is what really grabs my attention.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 7 – Kansas City Royals: 5 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 7

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 46-33-3 (58.4%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (-1.5, -130) at Baltimore Orioles
BOS: Hector Rodriguez – R (0-2, 3.72 ERA)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-4, 5.34 ERA)

The defending champs had themselves a big dip in production for the series opener last night. After scoring a total of 55 runs in the previous seven games, the Red Sox managed to put up only one run against a talented young lefty in John Means on Monday night. Don’t expect that slump to last too long for Boston, especially with David Hess going for Baltimore. In fact, the current Red Sox roster has a combined .317 batting average, 1.088 OPS and six homers in 66 career plate appearances against Hess.

Boston will be going with a bullpen-by-committee game and that has been a productive unit of late, with the fifth-best SIERA (skill-interactive earned run average) and seventh-best xFIP (expected fielding-independent pitching) in baseball over the last seven days. The Orioles’ offense hasn’t been great as usual, scoring three runs or fewer in six of the last nine games.

I’m looking for the Red Sox to put one of their patented poundings on the Orioles at Camden Yards, just as they have done so many times in the past. The SK Trend Confidence has the Red Sox on the 1.5 run-line as one of its favorite plays of the night.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 9 – Baltimore Orioles: 3 *

[7:40 p.m. EST] Under 8 (-108) – Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (3-1, 3.45 ERA)
MIL: Adrian Houser – R (0-1, 8.44 ERA)

We’re seeing a lot of unders come out in recent Brewers and Nationals games of late. In fact, Brew Crew games have gone under the total in six of the last nine, while the Nats have suffered that fate in five of the last seven.

I’m banking on the Washington side of things to carry us to victory tonight, with Stephen Strasburg’s recent performances and the number of injuries piling up in the Nationals lineup. Strasburg has a 0.78 WHIP, 29 strikeouts and only three runs allowed over his last 21 2/3 innings of work and the current Brewers lineup owns a .197 lifetime batting average against him. Meanwhile, a Nats lineup that is missing Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Trea Turner and Ryan Zimmermann has now scored three runs or fewer in nine of the last 11 games.

It may not look great on the surface for the Brewers with Adrian Houser starting on the mound, but that’s just for show. Milwaukee will be going the “opener” route, opting to use the struggling Freddy Peralta at another point during the game. If needed, I’m sure Bernie the Brewer could pitch effectively tonight against this struggling Nats offense.

All in all, Strasburg should be the one dictating the low-scoring game with another dominant outing. Look for the Brewers and their combination of pitchers to get the job done as well. The SK Trend Confidence rating has the under and the Brewers moneyline as two of its favorite plays of the night.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 3 – Washington Nationals: 2 *

[8:00 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 (-110) – Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (3-0, 2.00 ERA)
CHC: Jon Lester – L (2-1, 1.73 ERA)

It’s going to be a frigid one at Wrigley Field tonight, with temperatures in the mid-40s and the wind blowing in from left-center field at 12 mph, as two talented southpaws take the mound.

Caleb Smith has quietly been putting together an All-Star-level start to the season with a 3-0 record, 2.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 45 strikeouts over 36 innings. In fact, Smith has qualified for a quality start in each of his last five outings.

Jon Lester has been simply magnificent this season, allowing two runs or fewer in all five starts – one being cut short due to a hamstring injury. Nonetheless, Lester had his best start of the season in his last outing, 35 miles away from where he grew up, tossing seven innings of one-hit shutout ball while striking out eight Mariners in Seattle. Also, the Marlins offense ranks in the bottom five of most advanced metrics overall and against left-handed pitching.

The 6.5-total, weather and an excellent duo of starting pitchers lend itself to plenty of pessimism for runs going up on the scoreboard tonight. Should be a fun game to watch, though. You know, if you hate offense.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 2 – Miami Marlins: 1 *

[8:40 p.m. EST] Under 10.5 (-120) – San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
SF: Madison Bumgarner – L (1-4, 3.92 ERA)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (2-1, 4.03 ERA)

It’s always a risky proposition to take the under at Coors Field but we’re trusting the SK Trend Confidence rating on this game, which has one of the highest grades for both teams here. And it’s interesting, considering both teams have posted a ton of overs lately – the Giants in eight of the last 10 and Rockies in nine of the last 11.

Madison Bumgarner takes the mound for San Francisco, and while his 1-4 record doesn’t look great, he does have a 1.10 WHIP and solid numbers against Colorado. In fact, MadBum posted his only win of the season against the Rockies back on April 13.

Antonio Senzatela has allowed three runs or fewer in three of his four starts this season. Even better news is that Senzatela is 5-0 with a 3.36 ERA in eight appearances (six starts) against the Giants since 2016.

We might be cutting it close here on the total, but we’re placing a ton of faith in the system this evening – and you should too.

* Final Score Prediction: Colorado Rockies: 5 – San Francisco Giants: 4 *