Tag: Boston Red Sox

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, June 14

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 104-88-4 (54.2%) *

 

[7:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (1.5-run line: -150) at Baltimore Orioles
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (6-4, 5.00 ERA/1.39 WHIP)
BAL: Luis Ortiz – R (season debut)

OK, here we go. It’s time for the defending champs to officially get back on track. The Red Sox are 15-2 in their last 17 trips to Camden Yards, so this could very well be the cure for them. Vegas believes so, as the Red Sox IRT has increased significantly by +0.8 and the Orioles’ IRT has decreased by -0.3.

We’ve got solid trends for Boston and its starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez. The Red Sox are an incredible 17-2 in his starts against teams with a losing record, and the team also has an excellent 14-4 mark in E-Rod’s road starts over the last two seasons. Not to mention, he’s 4-0 against Baltimore in his last four meetings, allowing two runs or fewer in all of them.

While the lefty’s traditional numbers don’t look great, he is the unfortunate victim of bad luck. The Statcast suggests that positive regression is coming around in E-Rod’s favor, as opposing hitters aren’t barreling the ball up with great frequency – a lot of soft-contact hits are finding their way to open spots on the field.

The Orioles’ bullpen has allowed the most earned runs (175) and second-most homers (52) this season, and they’ll likely be needed after Luis Ortiz is done. Ortiz doesn’t have much MLB experience, but it isn’t pretty. In fact, his numbers down in Triple-A are even worse, carrying a 2-6 record with a 7.01 ERA/1.63 WHIP and 14 homers allowed in 52 2/3 innings.

If the Red Sox don’t get busy in this matchup, they all need to take ice baths or participate in some sort of cruel punishment.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 12 – Baltimore Orioles: 4 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 7 (+104) – Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays
LAA: Andrew Heaney – L (0-1, 5.40 ERA/0.96 WHIP)
TB: Blake Snell – L (4-5, 3.50 ERA/1.10 WHIP)

For the second night in a row, we’ll have dueling southpaws going head-to-head at Tropicana Field. Both guys have electric swing-and-miss stuff, and that’s probably why we’ve seen drastic IRT decreases for the Angels (-0.4) and Rays (-0.7), while the game total went from 8.0 to 7.0.

Blake Snell takes the mound for Rays at home, and he looked great against the Red Sox, even after getting into some early trouble at Fenway Park. The Angels do have solid metrics against left-handed pitching, but you can throw all of that out the window when a guy like Snell is pitching. In fact, Snell has faced this Angels team before and notched a quality start in each outing while striking out 15 batters over 12 2/3 innings. Most of the guys that got the big hits in those games are injured anyways, and Snell has done a job of neutralizing the big boppers in this lineup, albeit in limited plate appearances.

Andrew Heaney allowed five runs in his last start, but it was the second time the Mariners saw him in six days – offenses typically get the advantage in those scenarios. Even with that performance, Heaney has a ridiculous 19.4 swinging-strike rate and has struck out 28 of the 67 batters (41.8% K-rate) he’s faced this season.

Oh yeah, and the team with the worst K-rate in baseball? You guessed it – the Rays.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 3 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: -116)
KC: Brad Keller – R (3-8, 4.29 ERA/1.38 WHIP)
MIN: Kyle Gibson – R (6-3, 4.14 ERA/1.28 WHIP)

Vegas is already giving the Twins some love early on with increases to their IRT (+0.7) and moneyline (-180 to -230). And for good reason, as there a few trends heading directly in their favor:

Minnesota is 27-10 against teams with a losing record this season, while KC is 28-80 against teams with a winning record over the last two seasons. Also, the Twins are 36-16 in games this season where the opposing starter is right-handed, while the Royals are 16-33 in that same scenario.

The Twins lead MLB in numerous advanced-metric categories against right-handed pitching and have done so throughout the entire season. Over the last 21 days, they own a massive .360 wOBA and .276 ISO against righties.

On the flip side, KC has been just the opposite over the last 21 days with a .287 wOBA and .138 ISO to go along with a 25% K-rate. The Royals have also scored three runs or fewer in 11 of their last 16 games.

Minnesota starter Kyle Gibson is a perfect 3-0 at home with a 3.24 ERA and .205 opposing batting average in four starts at Target Field this season.

All in all, the Twins are just the better team here and the Royals have lost eight of the last nine games that Brad Keller has started – seven of those eight losses came by two runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 11 – Kansas City Royals: 4 * 

NBA Finals & MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, June 13

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

* 2019 MLB Record: 104-85-4 (55%) *

NBA Finals – Game 6:
Under 211.5 (-110) – Toronto Raptors (+2.5, -110/ML: +124) at Golden State Warriors

Game 5 was a cruel twist of everyone’s emotions. The Warriors led nearly the entire game, but that was followed by a Raptors run that gave them a 103-97 advantage with about five minutes to go. Then, just as they’ve done so many times in the past, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson engineered a meticulous 3-point shooting exhibition and took the lead late to come away with the 106-105 victory.

Let’s be honest – Toronto has dominated the majority of the series. Even in the games that Golden State won, they barely hung on for dear life at the end. Sure, the Warriors got a huge jolt of energy from Kevin Durant’s presence in Game 5, but knowing he’s gone has to put them in a different mindset. Unfortunately, that mindset could be detrimental as the Splash Brothers know they need to do literally everything on offense.

Expect Nick Nurse to formulate a gameplan that makes life difficult on Curry and Thompson all night. In my opinion, you HAVE TO make anyone but these two guys beat you.

We know this will be the final game at Oracle Arena and the crowd will be the loudest it has ever been. However, I don’t think that’ll be enough to help the worn-down and beat-up Warriors tonight. Kawhi Leonard has the perfect mentality, in that a riled-up crowd isn’t something that will get to him. Expect the rest of his teammates to follow suit and hoist the trophy at the end of the night.

Lastly, the SK Trend Confidence rating likes the total to go under in this game, as three of the last four games in this series have suffered the same fate.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Raptors: 103 – Golden State Warriors: 99 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-104) – Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
TEX: Adrian Sampson – R (5-3, 3.72 ERA/1.33 WHIP)
BOS: David Price – L (4-2, 2.70 ERA/1.05 WHIP)

Vegas has already declared this as a low-scoring game, dropping the IRTs for both teams – Rangers: -0.6, Red Sox: -0.3. The Rangers’ IRT actually comes in as the largest drop for any team on today’s entire schedule.

David Price has been simply magnificent, and you know this because he actually pitched well at Yankee Stadium two starts ago, a place that’s been an absolute nightmare for him. Not including the one start where Price came out in the first inning at Houston (due to sickness), the veteran lefty has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts – the one misnomer, he allowed three. In addition, Price has a microscopic 1.08 ERA in four starts at Fenway Park this season.

The Rangers’ offense has not been great against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days, with a .302 xwOBA and .127 ISO.

After an absolutely brutal start to the season, Adrian Sampson has allowed exactly one run in four of his last five starts – the one misnomer, he allowed three. Not to mention, Sampson has struck out 18 batters in his last 16 innings of work. It also helps matters for the under that Boston’s offense has only produced an average of three runs per game over the last seven contests.

All in all, both starting pitchers are at the top of their respective games and Vegas has made the proper adjustments on the run total. 10 of the Rangers’ last 14 games have gone under the total, while Red Sox games have suffered the same fate in four of the last five.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 4 – Texas Rangers: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 (-110) – Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays
LAA: Tyler Skaggs – L (4-6, 4.97 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
TB: Ryan Yarbrough – L (5-2, 5.31 ERA/1.09 WHIP)

Both of these teams have been doing a great job against left-handed pitching and also have a great history against each of these pitchers.

Let’s start with the Angels, who smashed Ryan Yarbrough for six runs (two homers) in 5 1/3 innings at Tropicana Field last season. Los Angeles has been great against lefties all season, but even more recently owns a robust .400 wOBA and .269 ISO over the last 21 days.

Yarbrough is scheduled to come in after the “opener” that Tampa Bay occasionally rolls out for an inning or two. Good news for the total going over tonight, as Yarbrough owns a 7.25 ERA at Tropicana Field – 3.15 ERA on the road.

The Rays don’t necessarily have the power numbers against lefties, but they are getting on base a great deal, registering a .347 wOBA over the last 21 days. In that same start where Yarbrough got ripped last season, Tyler Skaggs did even worse, allowing 10 runs over 3 1/3 innings. Much like Yarbrough’s splits working in our favor, Skaggs has a much worse 6.23 ERA on the road, compared to his 3.58 ERA at home.

Vegas adjusted the run total from 8.5 to 9.0, with each team getting a slight increase on the IRT, so that is good news that things are trending in that direction. Look for history to repeat itself and plenty of cleats to touch home plate tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 7 – Tampa Bay Rays: 6 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers (ML: -126) at Kansas City Royals
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (5-4, 3.08 ERA/1.04 WHIP)
KC: Homer Bailey – R (4-6, 5.90 ERA/1.51 WHIP)

Matthew Boyd had a few tough matchups of late but still managed to hold his own against some of the league’s best. In fact, he’s notched at least seven strikeouts in each of five outings, and that includes going against teams like the Twins, Braves and A’s. That’s bad news for a Royals team that is striking out 27.8% of the time against lefties over the last 21 days. Not to mention, their offense against lefties has sucked all year, owning the third-worst wOBA (.281) in baseball this season.

Boyd did skill this KC team a month ago, striking out nine Royals over seven innings en route to a win.

On the other side, Homer Bailey gets ripped with great regularity. Bailey has some of the worst advanced metrics of any pitcher on tonight’s slate, setting up a huge night for the Tigers’ offense. While they haven’t scored a ton of runs lately, the heart of the order has been making solid contact against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days and that bad luck is bound to turn around, especially against a pitcher like Bailey.

Look for Detroit to get back on the good foot and Boyd to lead the way with a dominant performance tonight. The Tigers are 6-2 against the Royals this season and Bailey’s teams are a dreadful 6-27 in games that he’s started over the last two seasons.

* Final Score Prediction: Detroit Tigers: 6 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, June 10

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

NBA Finals – Game 5: Golden State Warriors (-1, -105/ML: -114) at Toronto Raptors

The city of Toronto is ready to celebrate an NBA championship for the first time in its history, but it’ll have to wait until Thursday or Sunday… or never.

Kevin Durant is back for the Warriors and it’s really anyone’s guess how he’ll perform. Personally, I don’t think he’s going to make a HUGE difference, but his presence could be enough to get Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson a little more wiggle-room to shoot. KD is a body the Raptors certainly have to account for, and you wonder if they’ll end up putting Kawhi Leonard on him instead of Klay or Steph. Ohhhhh, the mind games – I love it!

The Raptors’ length has proven to be detrimental for the Warriors, and adding KD will only space things out a bit more for the Splash Brothers, who both need to be at the top of their games – we’ve seen them do this plenty of times.

I do think it’s a fascinating optic that this Warriors team has been on both sides of the 3-to-1 coin. They know exactly what works to get back from that deficit, and also what allowed the Cavs to come back on them.

Toronto won’t make this easy on Golden State with the rawkus crowd, but if KD gets off to a hot start look for them to be neutralized a bit. I wasn’t going to underestimate the champs without KD, but now that they have him, I’m ready to make the ballsy prediction.

We’re going back to Oakland for Game 6 – and then coming back for Game 7!

* Final Score Prediction: Golden State Warriors: 115 – Toronto Raptors: 107 *

* 2019 MLB Record: 99-81-4 (55%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-104) – Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
TEX: Mike Minor – L (5-4, 2.55 ERA/1.22 WHIP)
BOS: Chris Sale – L (2-7, 3.84 ERA/1.00 WHIP)

Chris Sale shrugged off a horrific start to this season and even threw a complete-game shutout his last time out against the Royals. Tonight, he’ll be taking on a Rangers team that owns the fourth-highest K-rate (26.4%) against left-handed pitching. Sale has truly thrived on the home crowd, striking out 48 batters in 28 1/3 innings at Fenway Park this season.

If all of that wasn’t enough, Sale is 3-0 in three starts against Texas since coming to Boston. The electric lefty also has at least 12 strikeouts in four of his last five starts against the Rangers.

While Sale has amazing numbers in this matchup, let’s not count out Mike Minor here. Outside of a rough outing on Opening Day, the veteran lefty has been simply magnificent this season with seven quality starts since the beginning of April.

Minor has been better at home, but this matchup against the Red Sox is one that could even out the splits. They were dazzled by lefty Blake Snell yesterday and now own some less than gaudy numbers against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days, including a 25% K-rate over that span.

I’m going with the under of 7.5 runs tonight, considering Vegas dropped the IRT (implied run total) -0.5 runs for both sides. Sale’s K-prop sits at 9.5 (-112 for both over/under) and I don’t mind taking the over on that one either.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 4 – Texas Rangers: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays (1.5-run line: -122)
OAK: Tanner Anderson – R (season debut)
TB: Charlie Morton – R (7-0, 2.30 ERA/1.06 WHIP)

There’s plenty of data behind the Rays, including two of the highest SK Trend Confidence ratings of the night in our system.

Tanner Anderson is making the first start of his MLB career, and he registered a 6.26 ERA down in Triple-A this season. Tampa’s offense looked outstanding in Boston over the weekend, and now own a zaftig .360 xwOBA (contact metric) against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Tampa’s +0.6 IRT increase is the highest of any team on tonight’s slate, and it also helps that Oakland’s bullpen ranks second-worst in xFIP and SIERA over the last 14 days.

It’s truly unbelievable, but Charlie Morton has not registered a loss over his last 20 starts, allowed three runs or fewer in 18 times and two runs or fewer in 15 times. Look for the A’s to struggle with playing catch-up for Anderson’s apparent rough start.

We’re taking the Rays with resounding confidence.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 7 – Oakland A’s: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 9

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 97-80-4 (55%) *

[1:05 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-106) – Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
TB: Blake Snell – L (3-5, 3.68 ERA/1.11 WHIP)
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (6-3, 4.88 ERA/1.37 WHIP)

Blake Snell ran into a hot Tigers’ offense in his last start, allowing seven hits and six runs over 4 1/3 innings. That outing was certainly a misnomer, considering the electric lefty had only allowed six runs in his previous 30 1/3 innings.

Today, Snell will take on a Red Sox team he’s dominated since the start of last season. Snell has collected the win in each of his last three starts against Boston and hasn’t allowed more than two runs against them in each of the last four. The Red Sox offense hasn’t looked good in this series, and it helps Snell’s case that Mookie Betts is only hitting .209 against left-handed pitching. As for the rest of the Red Sox offense against lefties, they’re swinging and missing at a massive 31.8% K-rate and own a putrid .260 xwOBA over the last 14 days.

Eduardo Rodriguez gets the benefit of facing a Rays team that has the highest K-rate (28.8%) against left-handed pitching this season. While E-Rod’s numbers don’t look great on the surface versus Tampa Bay, it’s worth noting that he’s allowed three runs or fewer in six of seven starts against them.

I fully expect E-Rod to match Snell’s performance today, giving us a nice pitching duel for most of the day. Good news for the under here, as the IRT has dropped -0.3 for both sides.

Fun fact: Dating back to last season, the Red Sox are 29-7 in games that Rodriguez has started.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 3 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2 *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: -144) at Detroit Tigers
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (8-2, 1.96 ERA/0.96 WHIP)
DET: Ryan Carpenter – L (1-2, 6.23 ERA/1.35 WHIP)

The Twins are the number one offense in baseball, particularly against left-handed pitching, and their 5.8 IRT ranks third-best on the entire slate. Today, they’ll take on a lefty in Ryan Carpenter who actually has worse numbers at home. Carpenter has gotten lit up at Comerica Park, allowing at least seven hits in all three starts there, which totals out to an 8.44 ERA and .338 opposing batting average.

Jake Odorizzi takes the mound for Minnesota, and he’s been fantastic allowing NO RUNS in six of his last seven starts – I repeat: NO RUNS in six of his last seven starts. Whoa! Not to mention, the Twins have won each of the last nine times Odorizzi was on the bump.

Look for the Twins to roll easily in this one, with Odorizzi getting more than enough run support to make it work.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 8 – Detroit Tigers: 0 *

[3:05 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics (1.5-run line: -126) at Texas Rangers
OAK: Frankie Montas – R (7-2, 2.83 ERA/1.17 WHIP)
TEX: Drew Smyly – L (1-4, 7.93 ERA/1.86 WHIP)

It’s a huge mismatch of starting pitchers at Globe Life Park today, so look for the A’s to take this one easily.

Drew Smyly takes the mound for the Rangers, and he’s been beaten up like he’s owed people money of late. Smyly had eerily-similar stat lines in each of his last two starts, allowing eight hits and seven runs against the Mariners and Orioles. That’s a major problem, considering the A’s rank first in ISO (.229) and tied for second in wOBA (.357) against left-handed pitching this season.

Oakland owns a magnificent .420 wOBA against lefties over the last 14 days, hence why they have the highest IRT (6.4) on the entire slate.

Frankie Montas has been simply dominant this season, and he’s allowed two runs or fewer in six of the last seven starts. The splits actually work in favor of Montas as well, as he’s 4-2 with a 2.36 ERA in seven road starts, while going 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA in three daytime starts too.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics: 10 – Texas Rangers: 3 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 2

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

[8:00 p.m. EST] NBA Finals – Game 2:
Under 213 (-110) – Golden State Warriors (ML: +112) at Toronto Raptors

Everyone was surprised by the outcome of Game 1, when the Raptors came out and dominated a rusty Warriors squad. It’s interesting to see nearly the same spread in consecutive games, but I’m calling Vegas’s bluff here.

I feel like too many people have already forgotten just how amazing this Warriors team is. They did a fantastic job on Kawhi Leonard, forcing him to give up the ball at nearly every turn. Expect Golden State to continue doing that, while Draymond Green turns up the intensity on Pascal Siakam. As Dray said after Game 1, he has to do a better job of making life difficult on Siakam – and he probably will.

The Warriors didn’t give Stephen Curry too much help in the series opener but expect that to change tonight. Hopefully, the refs let Klay Thompson get away with more of those “seven steps to the hole” moves. Not that they’ll need it though…

SK’s Trend Confidence rating also likes the under in tonight’s game. It makes sense, considering the game total has dropped two points and the Warriors defense should be much better.

* Final Score Prediction: Golden State Warriors: 103 – Toronto Raptors: 99 *

* 2019 MLB Record: 91-72-4 (55.8%) *

[2:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-116) – Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
CLE: Zach Plesac – R (0-0, 1.69 ERA/0.94 WHIP)
CHW: Lucas Giolito – R (7-1, 2.85 ERA/0.98 WHIP)

Lucas Giolito has been outstanding for the White Sox this season, with a sub-1.00 WHIP and 69 strikeouts over 60 innings. It’s been so good for Giolito, that he’s allowed one run or fewer in each of his last five starts – all White Sox wins. Not only that, but Chicago has outscored its competition by a combined score of 19-5 over that span.

That goes to show you how few runs are being scored in some of these White Sox games. In fact, the total has gone under in 18 of the team’s last 25 games. We can also thank their bullpen, who has the fifth-best xFIP (3.72) in MLB over the last seven days.

Zach Plesac did a great job in his MLB debut last time out, allowing one run over 5 1/3 innings to a talented Red Sox lineup. Chicago’s offense has struggled mightily of late against right-handed pitching with .295 wOBA and .113 ISO numbers over the last 14 days. It probably won’t help the White Sox, considering they’ve never seen Plesac before and have limited footage on him. The Indians haven’t necessarily been pounding the ball either and got skilled by Giolito back on May 7 which ended up being a 2-0 White Sox win.

I’m looking for another low-scoring affair like there’s been in each of the last two games in this series. After all, the under has one of the highest SK Trend Confidence ratings (B+) of the day with this game

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 3 – Cleveland Indians: 2 *

[3:10 p.m. EST] Over 12.5 (-106) Toronto Blue Jays (ML: +124) at Colorado Rockies
TOR: Aaron Sanchez – R (3-5, 3.75 ERA/1.52 WHIP)
COL: Antonio Senzatela (3-4, 5.81 ERA/1.65 WHIP)

Vegas has spoken loudly by increasing the total by an entire run on this game, with both IRTs increasing as well: Blue Jays: +0.8, Rockies: +0.3. Just like the IRT increase, Toronto’s moneyline jump (+147 to +124) is the highest for any team on the slate.

The real key to the over today is Rockies’ pitcher Antonio Senzatela, who has a 6.17 ERA and .304 opposing batting average at Coors Field this season. Not only that, but Senzatela has been seen very well by opposing hitters in any setting of late, allowing 18 hits and five walks over his last 9 1/3 innings of work.

Aaron Sanchez will give it a go for the Blue Jays, and he’s been dealing with some finger issues of late. You have to wonder how far Sanchez will be pushed in this game, considering he has thrown 64 pitches or fewer in three of the last four starts. That’d be great news for the Rockies, as the Blue Jays’ bullpen has the sixth-highest WHIP (1.62) in MLB over the last seven days.

The Rockies have been excellent, going 8-1 on this current 10-game homestand, but it’s time for them to drop one to this pesky Blue Jays bunch. Those IRT and moneyline increases for Toronto are just way too telling here.

Toronto games have gone over the total in eight of the last 12, with two of those misnomers being pushes. Colorado games have gone over in seven of the last 11. It also helps that the wind will be blowing out at about 10 mph to left field.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 10 – Colorado Rockies: 7 *

[7:00 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-116) – Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
BOS: David Price – L (2-2, 2.83 ERA/1.03 WHIP)
NYY: C.C. Sabathia – L (3-1, 3.48 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

Hey, if you don’t like NBA Finals basketball… what the hell is wrong with you? Or, if you got two TVs or will find yourself at the local watering hole, ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball is a fantastic game to bet the over on tonight.

The Yankees absolutely own David Price, but luckily, he won’t have to deal with Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton. Unfortunately, Gary Sanchez and Luke Voit are still around and that’ll never be good news for David Price. Lifetime, Sanchez is 6-for-13 with five homers against him, while Voit is 3-for-5 with two homers.

Even though some of these younger Yanks don’t have a ton of experience against Price, rest assured that those vets will relay their knowledge down to them.

On the other side, old age might finally be catching up to CC Sabathia. The veteran lefty has now allowed 11 homers in his last 31 1/3 innings of work. While CC has historically pitched well against the Red Sox, this current version of him is certainly not in peak form.

This ballpark plays well for power hitters, so expect there to be quite a few long balls tonight. I’m not necessarily loving one side over the other, but definitely over the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – New York Yankees: 6 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, May 31

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 87-69-4 (55.8%) *

 

[7:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (ML: -150) at New York Yankees
BOS: Chris Sale – L (1-6, 4.19 ERA/1.06 WHIP)
NYY: J.A. Happ – L (4-3, 5.09 ERA/1.23 WHIP)

Chris Sale has been ridiculous over his last seven starts, striking out 74 hitters in 44 1/3 innings. This matchup has frequently gone well for the lanky lefty in the past, as Sale owns a 33.2% K-rate against the Yankees’ current roster.

While the Bronx Bombers have played well so far this season, they’ve been doing it against subpar competition. Not only that, but the Yankees have really struggled against left-handed pitching, with a .272 wOBA, .143 ISO and 33.8% K-rate over the last 14 days.

The Red Sox have been the polar opposite against lefties, tearing them up for a .368 wOBA and .223 ISO over the last 14 days. Most of J.A. Happ’s struggles have come at Yankee Stadium this season, as he’s 2-3 with a 5.93 ERA and nine homers allowed in 30 1/3 innings. The month of May hasn’t been kind to Happ either, as the lefty has a massive 5.61 ERA.

Look for Steve Pearce to have a big night against Happ because this is a matchup he’s dominated in the past. Pearce is 11-for-35 against Happ with a whopping six homers over his career. It’s also a good sign that three different Red Sox (J.D. Martinez: +210, Rafael Devers: +260, Michael Chavis: +270) have favorable odds on their home run prop tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 6 – New York Yankees: 3 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 10 (-110) – Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (4-4, 3.99 ERA/1.16 WHIP)
CHW: Dylan Covey – R (0-4, 5.47 ERA/1.41 WHIP)

Trevor Bauer has been surprisingly bad more than a few times this season. In fact, he has now allowed at least four runs in five of his last six starts. This includes his last outing against the White Sox, where Bauer allowed 10 hits, eight runs (seven earned) and two homers over five innings back on May 6.

Dylan Covey hasn’t been much better, but we expect that from him. The righty has allowed five homers 13 walks over the last 20 1/3 innings – control issues and getting ripped, yikes!

If you couldn’t tell by now, over 10 runs is the play here. We’ve got 11 mph winds blowing out to left field and the two teams saw their IRTs jump significantly – Indians: +0.7, White Sox: +0.4.

One last nugget that should bode well, is that each of the last five Indians’ games has gone over the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 7 – Chicago White Sox: 6 * 

[8:40 p.m. EST] Over 11.5 (-106) – Toronto Blue Jays at Colorado Rockies (1.5-run line: -156)
TOR: Edwin Jackson – R (0-2, 9.00 ERA/1.64 WHIP)
COL: German Marquez – R (5-2, 3.56 ERA/1.12 WHIP)

Edwin Jackson just doesn’t have the goods to compete with this Rockies’ squad with the friendly hitting conditions at Coors Field — the wind will be blowing out to right-center field at 11 mph. Vegas knows this as well, and that’s why Colorado’s 7.6 IRT is a full 1.8 better than the second-highest mark on the slate. Jackson has allowed a total of 13 runs (12 earned) over his last nine innings of work and things don’t appear to be getting any better tonight. The Blue Jays have lost his last two starts by a combined score of 31-6.

That is a good enough reason to take the Rockies on the 1.5-run line alone. However, the total going over 11.5 runs is quite appealing here as well. The Rockies should do a fine job putting up runs on their own, but their starter German Marquez has struggled more in Colorado this season. These splits are absolutely staggering, as he’s allowed 49 hits and a .327 opposing batting average in 35 innings at home – compared to 25 hits and a .167 opposing batting average in 43 1/3 innings on the road.

We’re going to see plenty of guys on base tonight, and the Rockies will come up bigger in the clutch.

* Final Score Prediction: Colorado Rockies: 12 – Toronto Blue Jays: 6 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Memorial Day Monday, May 27

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

Alright, last week was just one bad beat after another. Or should I say, one bad error/blown save after the other. Everyone, do your thing that you do – Woosah, Goosfraba, Hakuna Matata… I ain’t gonna judge you. Let’s get the monkey off the back. After all, we’re still 16 games over .500 in this space!

* 2019 MLB Record: 78-62-4 (56%) *

[2:10 p.m. EST] Under 10  (-120) – Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox (moneyline: -114)
KC: Homer Bailey – R (4-5, 6.13 ERA/1.53 WHIP)
CHW: Ivan Nova – R (3-4, 6.96 ERA/1.77 WHIP)

Yeah, looking at those numbers above and seeing that we’re liking the under is probably making you scratch your head. I’m a bit nervous myself, but there is some good statistical analysis to bring us there. The SK Trend Confidence does have more faith in the under than any other outcome, considering 13 of the White Sox last 18 games have gone under the total, while the Royals have scored three runs or fewer in nine of their last 15 games.

For one, White Sox starter Ivan Nova really hasn’t been as bad as usual over the last few weeks. His only blowup outing came against the Blue Jays, who were seeing him for the second time in six days. Nova, despite allowing 10 hits, actually had really good stuff early on against the Astros – a few of those hits found some holes.

It’s also worth mentioning that Chicago has won four of the last five games that Nova has started. Also, our friends over at EV Analytics like him to reach over 3.5 on his K-prop for today – always a good sign.

What really helps Nova today is home plate umpire Bill Miller, who tends to favor pitchers. In fact, Miller has the third-highest K-rate (21%) and second-lowest on-base percentage (.312) of any umpires with at least 200 games under their belt. Vegas has noticed this and adjusted the total to 9.5 on some books – hopefully, you’ll get yours at 10.

The weather should help alleviate some runs as well, as the wind will be blowing in from center field at 10 mph.

All in all, I do like the White Sox to get this win with a good day from Nova.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 6 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Under 10.5 (-116) – Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox  (1.5-run line: +110)
CLE: Jefry Rodriguez – R (1-4, 4.08 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
BOS: Rick Porcello – R (4-5, 4.45 ERA/1.31 WHIP)

The SK Trend Confidence rating likes the under as the most likely outcome in this game. And it makes plenty of sense, considering Indians’ games have gone under the total in 14 of their last 18 games. The Red Sox also had a weekend full of unders in three straight games against the Astros.

Rick Porcello takes the mound for Boston, and he’s been outstanding with five quality starts over the last six outings. Over that stretch, the veteran righty has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of those outings. The Red Sox offense seems to like when Porcello is on the mound, as they give him an average of 6.4 runs of support in his starts this season.

Jefry Rodriguez has allowed seven hits in three of the last four starts – in the misnomer, he gave up six. It’s interesting that the game total jumped from 9.5 to 10.5, considering how well Porcello has done of late. This leads me to believe the Red Sox will jump all over Rodriguez early and coast to victory.

In terms of value, it makes more sense to bet Boston on the 1.5-run line at +110, as opposed to -180 on the moneyline – the Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. Cleveland has lost six of its last seven games, with each of those losses coming by two runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Cleveland Indians: 3 *

MLB & NBA Playoffs Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 21

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

NBA Playoffs Pick: Under 217 (-110) – Milwaukee Bucks (-2.5, 110) at Toronto Raptors

The two highest SK Trend Confidence ratings (both B+) of the night in NBA are the Bucks and the under.

It took two overtimes for the Raptors to finally defeat the Bucks, and also for the total to go over in Game 3 – what a heartbreaker! However, it’s worth noting how big of a swing the spread is from Game 3 to Game 4, making it a five-point jump in a favor of Milwaukee.

One of the main reasons these Bucks have been so successful is their head coach Mike Budenholzer. It’s true, we typically see Milwaukee get out to slow starts, but we also see this team finish strong. Budenholzer has made the necessary adjustments multiple times throughout these playoffs, most notably after the Bucks’ only loss of these playoffs before Sunday night. Milwaukee came out in Game 2 of the second round against the Celtics and wiped them off the map for the entirety of that series.

The Bucks are 10-2 in these playoffs, covering the spread in each one of their wins. I expect them to remind the Raptors who had the NBA’s No. 1 defensive efficiency rating during the regular season. Budenholzer should have more adjustments to bottle up a fatigued Kawhi Leonard, who is dealing with a slight leg injury.

#FearTheDeer! #BuckNasty!

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks: 102 – Toronto Raptors: 88 *

* 2019 MLB Record: 73-48-4 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-104) – New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
NYY: Domingo German – R (8-1, 2.50 ERA/0.95 WHIP)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-5, 5.58 ERA/1.29 WHIP)

Whatever the Yankees are doing against David Hess, they need to keep on doing it. In his last two starts against the Evil Empire, Hess has allowed seven homers in 11 innings of work – yikes! Once Hess leaves the game, it doesn’t get any better, as the Orioles’ entire team has allowed an MLB-high 97 homers in 47 games.

OK, great. So, we know where most of the offense is coming from.

The Orioles will likely have a tougher time against Domingo German, but it is their second time seeing him over the last six days. German’s last two road starts (@SF, @TB) haven’t been great, as he’s allowed 10 hits, three walks and seven runs over 11 innings of work. Not to mention, Baltimore has done a fine job offensively against New York in their matchups this season.

Clearly, the way to go here would be betting the Yankees, but their moneyline (-250) and 1.5-run line (-162) odds are a bit pricey. Six of the 10 Orioles-Yankees matchups this season have gone over the total, and we’re looking at a situation where it’ll be seven of 11 at the end of the night.

The SK Trend Confidence rating has an A-grade for the over at 10.5, which is the highest grade of any game on today’s MLB schedule. Luckily for us, the total is actually sitting at 9.5, so that speaks heavy volumes to how many runs we should see tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 10 – Baltimore: 4 *

[7:07 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-110) – Boston Red Sox (1.5-run line: +100) at Toronto Blue Jays
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (4-2, 4.89 ERA/1.43 WHIP)
TOR: Marcus Stroman – R (1-6, 2.95 ERA/1.29 WHIP)

Speaking of high grades, the Red Sox and the total going under all both get a B+ for tonight’s game. We’ve got plenty of reasons to believe so.

For one, the Blue Jays’ offense has been brutal lately, especially against left-handed pitching. Against southpaws over the last 14 days, Toronto has an anemic .197 wOBA and .067 ISO. Overall this season against lefties, they rank third-worst in MLB with a .268 wOBA and .107 ISO.

Not only has their offense been bad, but the Blue Jays have been even worse for Marcus Stroman. The righty’s numbers aren’t bad at all, but his team has scored three runs or fewer (mostly fewer) in seven of his 10 starts this season.

On the other side, the Red Sox have won each of the last seven games that Eduardo Rodriguez has started, with six of those wins coming by two runs or more. Despite losing two games to the Astros over the weekend, the Red Sox have seemingly turned the corner with a 14-5 record over the last 19 games.

It’s good news for the under on this game, as the total dropped from 9.0 to 8.5. The Blue Jays’ IRT dropped -0.4, while the Red Sox move slightly downward to -0.1.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 6 – Toronto Blue Jays: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-126) – Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (3-1, 2.25 ERA/0.92 WHIP)
DET: Spencer Turnbull – R (2-3, 2.40 ERA/1.25 WHIP)

The moneyline number for this game is quite interesting, considering Caleb Smith is probably the best pitcher in baseball that no one gives a damn about. Nonetheless, Tigers’ starting pitcher Spencer Turnbull should have a solid outing tonight — Hell, mostly everyone going against the Marlins does. All in all, I think the most likely outcome here is the total going under 7.5 runs.

Let’s start with Smith, who has allowed two runs or fewer in all but one of his eight starts this season – that one misnomer, he allowed three runs. Because the Marlins’ offense is so atrocious, the lefty has had to do literally everything imaginable to keep this team in ball games. In fact, six of Smith’s eight starts this season have had seven total runs or fewer scored in the entire game.

Not to be outdone, Turnbull has only allowed five earned runs over his last six starts. As mentioned before, the Marlins’ offense is terrible, and over the last 14 days, they have a .255 wOBA and 30.3% K-rate against right-handed pitching. Overall this season, Miami ranks near- or dead-last in almost every advanced metric against right-handed pitching.

This game will likely come down to the bullpens late, but I’ll say that the Tigers get the win, based on the awkward moneyline in their favor.

* Final Score Prediction: Detroit Tigers: 3 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 8

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 48-34-3 (58.5%) *

[6:10 p.m. EST] Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (-1.5, +108)
CHW: Reynaldo Lopez – R (2-4, 6.69 ERA/1.76 WHIP)
CLE: Shane Bieber – R (2-1, 3.16 ERA/1.03 WHIP)

OK, enough is enough already with these White Sox taking games against the Indians. Chicago got the first two games of this series and now trot out Reynaldo Lopez and his 1.76 WHIP, which ranks second-worst of any starting pitcher in baseball with at least 30 innings under his belt. If Cleveland ever had a pitcher to break out of its recent offensive funk, Lopez is certainly the guy to help out.

The Tribe is rolling out Shane Bieber, who has notched a quality start in five of his last six outings. While the White Sox did hang nine runs on Monday night against Trevor Bauer, they have scored two runs or fewer in four of the last five games.

Call this revenge, call this a team that’s due – call it what you will. The Indians are going to make up for their recent misfortunes in a big way today.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 6 – Chicago White Sox: 2 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (-1.5, -166) at Baltimore Orioles
BOS: Chris Sale – L (5.25 ERA/1.28 WHIP)
BAL: Andrew Cashner – R (4.71 ERA/1.46 WHIP)

The Red Sox have the highest moneyline increase (-245 to -281) on the slate and massive -166 odds on the 1.5 run-line. Needless to say, things are shaping up nicely for the defending champs on the road tonight.

Chris Sale is coming off his best outing of the season – no coincidence that it came against his former team – as he pitched six innings of scoreless ball with 10 strikeouts. The lanky lefty is 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA in seven starts against the Orioles since he joined the Red Sox. Not to mention, Baltimore has the lowest IRT (3.1) on the slate and have struck out at a zaftig 27.3% clip against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Andrew Cashner takes the mound for Bird Gang, and he’s been prone to have a surprisingly good outing every now and again. Luckily, his outings don’t last too long, with only two of his seven starts going for six innings or more. That’s good news, considering the Orioles bullpen has the worst ERA (6.13) in the American League and second-worst in all of baseball.

I expect the Red Sox to get off to a slow start offensively and then finally hammer this thing home late, with Sale, of course, keeping the Orioles off the scoreboard for most of the night. The SK Trend Confidence for the Red Sox on the 1.5 run-line is one of the highest on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros (-1.5, -110)
KC: Jorge Lopez – R (0-3, 5.09 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
HOU: Brad Peacock – R (2-2, 5.28 ERA/1.21 WHIP)

The Astros got rolled up and smoked in front of their home fans last night, so I’d expect them to come out with a focused mindset this evening. Houston ranks in the top five of MLB in nearly every advanced metric against right-handed pitching, so there’s no surprise that its 5.7 IRT is the highest on tonight’s slate.

Royals pitcher Jorge Lopez hasn’t fared well of late, allowing four runs in each of his last four starts. If that wasn’t bad enough, Kansas City has lost six of his seven starts this season.

Brad Peacock takes the mound for Houston, and he just simply hasn’t been at his best this season, as was evident in that last start against the Twins. While we don’t look at the Royals as a powerhouse offense, they’re a pesky bunch that gets the job done in a variety of ways. Hell, they did just post 12 runs last night.

I feel like the Astros on the 1.5 run-line is a solid play, but the over is what really grabs my attention.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 7 – Kansas City Royals: 5 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 7

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 46-33-3 (58.4%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (-1.5, -130) at Baltimore Orioles
BOS: Hector Rodriguez – R (0-2, 3.72 ERA)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-4, 5.34 ERA)

The defending champs had themselves a big dip in production for the series opener last night. After scoring a total of 55 runs in the previous seven games, the Red Sox managed to put up only one run against a talented young lefty in John Means on Monday night. Don’t expect that slump to last too long for Boston, especially with David Hess going for Baltimore. In fact, the current Red Sox roster has a combined .317 batting average, 1.088 OPS and six homers in 66 career plate appearances against Hess.

Boston will be going with a bullpen-by-committee game and that has been a productive unit of late, with the fifth-best SIERA (skill-interactive earned run average) and seventh-best xFIP (expected fielding-independent pitching) in baseball over the last seven days. The Orioles’ offense hasn’t been great as usual, scoring three runs or fewer in six of the last nine games.

I’m looking for the Red Sox to put one of their patented poundings on the Orioles at Camden Yards, just as they have done so many times in the past. The SK Trend Confidence has the Red Sox on the 1.5 run-line as one of its favorite plays of the night.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 9 – Baltimore Orioles: 3 *

[7:40 p.m. EST] Under 8 (-108) – Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (3-1, 3.45 ERA)
MIL: Adrian Houser – R (0-1, 8.44 ERA)

We’re seeing a lot of unders come out in recent Brewers and Nationals games of late. In fact, Brew Crew games have gone under the total in six of the last nine, while the Nats have suffered that fate in five of the last seven.

I’m banking on the Washington side of things to carry us to victory tonight, with Stephen Strasburg’s recent performances and the number of injuries piling up in the Nationals lineup. Strasburg has a 0.78 WHIP, 29 strikeouts and only three runs allowed over his last 21 2/3 innings of work and the current Brewers lineup owns a .197 lifetime batting average against him. Meanwhile, a Nats lineup that is missing Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Trea Turner and Ryan Zimmermann has now scored three runs or fewer in nine of the last 11 games.

It may not look great on the surface for the Brewers with Adrian Houser starting on the mound, but that’s just for show. Milwaukee will be going the “opener” route, opting to use the struggling Freddy Peralta at another point during the game. If needed, I’m sure Bernie the Brewer could pitch effectively tonight against this struggling Nats offense.

All in all, Strasburg should be the one dictating the low-scoring game with another dominant outing. Look for the Brewers and their combination of pitchers to get the job done as well. The SK Trend Confidence rating has the under and the Brewers moneyline as two of its favorite plays of the night.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 3 – Washington Nationals: 2 *

[8:00 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 (-110) – Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (3-0, 2.00 ERA)
CHC: Jon Lester – L (2-1, 1.73 ERA)

It’s going to be a frigid one at Wrigley Field tonight, with temperatures in the mid-40s and the wind blowing in from left-center field at 12 mph, as two talented southpaws take the mound.

Caleb Smith has quietly been putting together an All-Star-level start to the season with a 3-0 record, 2.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 45 strikeouts over 36 innings. In fact, Smith has qualified for a quality start in each of his last five outings.

Jon Lester has been simply magnificent this season, allowing two runs or fewer in all five starts – one being cut short due to a hamstring injury. Nonetheless, Lester had his best start of the season in his last outing, 35 miles away from where he grew up, tossing seven innings of one-hit shutout ball while striking out eight Mariners in Seattle. Also, the Marlins offense ranks in the bottom five of most advanced metrics overall and against left-handed pitching.

The 6.5-total, weather and an excellent duo of starting pitchers lend itself to plenty of pessimism for runs going up on the scoreboard tonight. Should be a fun game to watch, though. You know, if you hate offense.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 2 – Miami Marlins: 1 *

[8:40 p.m. EST] Under 10.5 (-120) – San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
SF: Madison Bumgarner – L (1-4, 3.92 ERA)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (2-1, 4.03 ERA)

It’s always a risky proposition to take the under at Coors Field but we’re trusting the SK Trend Confidence rating on this game, which has one of the highest grades for both teams here. And it’s interesting, considering both teams have posted a ton of overs lately – the Giants in eight of the last 10 and Rockies in nine of the last 11.

Madison Bumgarner takes the mound for San Francisco, and while his 1-4 record doesn’t look great, he does have a 1.10 WHIP and solid numbers against Colorado. In fact, MadBum posted his only win of the season against the Rockies back on April 13.

Antonio Senzatela has allowed three runs or fewer in three of his four starts this season. Even better news is that Senzatela is 5-0 with a 3.36 ERA in eight appearances (six starts) against the Giants since 2016.

We might be cutting it close here on the total, but we’re placing a ton of faith in the system this evening – and you should too.

* Final Score Prediction: Colorado Rockies: 5 – San Francisco Giants: 4 *