Tag: Boston Red Sox

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, May 2

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 38-28-2 (58%) *

[4:05 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (-159)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (2-1, 5.63 ERA)
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (2-1, 3.82 ERA)

The Nationals will look to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the Cardinals and luckily, Dakota Hudson and his 1.92 WHIP will be taking the mound. Hudson lucked out in his last outing by drawing the lowly Reds offense, but this time he’ll be facing a Nationals team that has plenty of power packed in this lineup, despite missing Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon.

Washington will have Stephen Strasburg on the hill, and he’s been fantastic in each of the last two outings, allowing only six hits, three walks and two runs over 15 innings while striking out 20 batters. This is why the Nats pay Stras the big bucks – to shut down losing streaks like the one they’re on now.

Even with all the turmoil going on in DC, it’s incredibly tough to sweep a team in a four-game series on the road. Look for Strasburg to have a solid outing and save his team from the ultimate embarrassment at home.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 6 – St. Louis Cardinals: 3 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (-1.5, -136) at Chicago White Sox
BOS: David Price – L (1-2, 3.60 ERA)
CHW: Lucas Giolito – R (2-1, 5.30 ERA)

Are the Red Sox fully back on track yet? I wouldn’t go that far, but they did take a big step in doing so by sweeping the A’s in a three-game series. Not to mention, the defending champs are 8-4 over the last 12 games.

David Price takes the hill for Boston, and he does look like someone who is fully back on track. He has now allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last three starts while striking out at least seven in those games. While Price doesn’t have much of a history against this Chicago roster, the lefty has held Jose Abreu in check (3-for-21, 4 Ks) over the course of his career.

Lucas Giolito will be making his first start since straining his hamstring, which led to a 10-day stint on the injured list. Surely, he could have some rust, but this is a Red Sox offense that scored 21 runs over the last three games. Not to mention, Giolito will likely be limited in his first start back, and the White Sox just played a doubleheader yesterday – the bullpen is not coming into this game at 100 percent.

Vegas has already adjusted the IRT for each side, giving the Red Sox at +0.3 increase while the White Sox got a -0.3 decrease. In addition, Boston also had its moneyline increase massively, from -156 to -205 – the largest on today’s entire MLB slate. We should have more than enough confidence to roll with the 1.5-run line at -136, as opposed to the massive -210 moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Chicago White Sox: 3 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels
TOR: Aaron Sanchez – R (3-1, 2.32 ERA)
LAA: Tyler Skaggs – L (2-2, 3.15 ERA)

I’m a big believer in Aaron Sanchez, and when he finally gets his control issues in order, we’ll be looking at a pitcher going six innings with ease. Unfortunately, the righty has issued 15 walks over his last 20 innings of work. Hence, why Sanchez has only made it out of the sixth inning in two of his six starts this season.

Aside from a rough outing at Wrigley Field, Tyler Skaggs has been solid in three of his four starts. Tonight, he’ll face a Blue Jays team that ranks third-worst in power metrics (ISO: .109) against left-handed pitching. Not to mention, the Blue Jays had a string of five straight games going under the total snapped last night, but that was because the Angels scored six runs – the Blue Jays only scored three.

I feel like both starting pitchers will keep runs off the board early and most the offense will come against the bullpens, albeit too late.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 4 – Toronto Blue Jays: 3 *

MLB Betting Value Plays for Friday, April 19

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

MLB Betting Value Plays

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8 – Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (1-2, 7.98 ERA)
TB: Ryne Stanek – R (0-0, 1.93 ERA)

We talked about it the other day, but these Rays’ bullpens games have become a real burden on opposing offenses over the last couple of seasons. Ryne Stanek will “start” his fifth game of the season, second this week, but only go one or two innings before handing it off the bullpen with the fourth-best ERA (3.56) in the American League.

It will be interesting, though, to see how that Tampa Bay bullpen comes back one night after losing the finale of its three-game series against Baltimore. The Rays had a bullpen game on Thursday and wound up using six different relievers in the loss. Luckily, the Red Sox offense has been uncharacteristically stagnant this week, scoring a total of eight runs over the last four games.

Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound for Boston, and he’s coming off his best start of the season. The young lefty has been roughed up in two road starts to open the 2019 campaign, but everyone is well-aware that Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL in basically Fenway Park South. Not to mention, it’s an indoor environment that pitchers absolutely love.

The key here is the Implied Run Totals (IRT) for the two teams, which have both decreased by -0.3 each. When a decrease of that magnitude happens for both sides, it’s usually a great sign for the pitchers. It’s also worth noting that each of the last four Boston games has landed under the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 4 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 8.5 – Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
CHW: Carlos Rodon – L (2-2, 3.57 ERA)
DET: Jordan Zimmermann (0-2, 4.29 ERA)

Temperatures will be in the low 40s tonight in Detroit, but the wind will be blowing out to right-center field at a whopping 19 mph during the game. I’ve got nothing but love for conditions like that and Vegas has already taken notice, jumping the IRT up for both teams (White Sox: +0.4, Tigers: +0.6) and the game total an entire run, from 7.5 to 8.5. All the trends we look for on a daily basis are right there for the taking, and we’ll do exactly that.

It also helps that the White Sox have hit Jordan Zimmermann very well of the course of time, with their current roster owning a collective .311 batting average and .896 OPS against him.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 8 – Detroit Tigers: 4 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins (+104)
WSH: Anibal Sanchez – R (0-1, 4.86 ERA)
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (1-0, 2.65 ERA)

I’m going with the upset here, even though Vegas doesn’t think that it’ll be much of one. Miami’s moneyline had an increase of +21 (+125 to +104) and Washington’s had a decrease of -23 (-135 to -112) – respectively, two of the highest shifts on tonight’s slate, in separate directions.

Caleb Smith takes the hill for the Marlins, and he has been outstanding this season against stiff NL East competition. The dazzling lefty owns a 0.88 WHIP and has yet to allow a home run at Marlins Park in 11 innings of work.

Miami hasn’t been winning a lot of games but tonight’s moneyline odds are the best it has seen all season. Usually, that’s a good sign of things to come. Not to mention, Washington’s bullpen ranks dead-last in all of MLB – more than about 1.5 runs worse than Baltimore. Yikes!

Fish for the upset!

* Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins: 4 – Washington Nationals: 1 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-1.5, -140/-225 ML) at Texas Rangers
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (2-0, 3.52 ERA)
TEX: Drew Smyly – L (0-1, 7.15 ERA)

Last, but certainly not least, Justin Verlander is up to his usual shtick. The veteran righty owns a 1.04 WHIP and 30 strikeouts over 23 innings of work. Tonight, Verlander faces a Rangers team whose current roster owns a collective .286 on-base percentage and 31.8% K-rate against him.

Drew Smyly goes for the Rangers, and he’ll have his hands full against a very heavy right-handed lineup that can rip the ball all over Globe Life Park – one of the best yards for hitters in all of MLB. The Astros just had their 10-game winning streak snapped, in which they had a run differential of +29 in that span, with five of those last six victories coming by more than one run. You do get some relief by taking them as favorites on the 1.5-run line, as opposed to laying -225 on the moneyline.

I’d look for Houston to get back on the good foot tonight, especially with the pitching matchup having such a wide gap of credibility.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 7 – Texas Rangers: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, April 14

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[1:05 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 –  Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox (-252)
BAL: John Means (1-1, 2.08 ERA)
BOS: David Price – L (0-1, 6.00 ERA)

The weather in Boston is not looking great over the next few days and that might be why we’re seeing a big decrease in the total for this game. Baltimore has a -0.4 IRT decrease while Boston dipped even further at -0.6.

While it is super early in the season, the Red Sox need to get their act together. A 5-10 record certainly isn’t what they had in mind and this is a golden opportunity to capitalize on a team that doesn’t match up talent-wise. Not only does the current Orioles’ roster has a combined .236 batting average against Price, but they have an even more anemic .269 on-base percentage. Look for Price to have a solid start and the Red Sox back on track.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 6 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

[2:10 p.m. EST] Under 8 –  Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
DET: Jordan Zimmermann – R (0-1, 2.50 ERA)
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (1-1, 2.18 ERA)

When Berrios is at home, you just simply roll with the goodness. He skilled a gem in his season debut at Target Field, but the 18-5 mark Berrios has posted there over the last two seasons should give bettors even more confidence that he’ll get the job done today.

I’d love to just take the Twins outright, but that is a ton of money to be laying. Let’s roll with the under in this one, considering Zimmermann has been surprisingly good to start the season. That last start didn’t go too well against Cleveland, but I feel like this is a guy who has found something in his old age — at least enough to keep the total to a minimum.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 5 – Detroit Tigers: 0 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-180) at Seattle Mariners – Total: 8
HOU: Gerrit Cole – R (0-2, 3.32 ERA)
SEA: Marco Gonzales – L (4-0, 3.16 ERA)

The Mariners probably felt all giddy with themselves heading into this mega-matchup with the Astros, but my, oh my, how the tide has turned. I’m looking at another Houston win in this game, considering they have a ton of righty bats that can do damage against Gonzalez, who has allowed at least eight baserunners in three of his four starts this season.

Not to mention, Cole is a damn good pitcher and someone that can’t go too long without having a win under his belt this far into the season.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 9 – Seattle Mariners: 3 *

MLB Betting Preview for Afternoon Games on Thursday, April 4

Welcome to a beautiful Thursday afternoon of MLB action! We’ve got four games on the early slate to break down, so without further ado…

[1:05 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals (-105) at Detroit Tigers – Total: 8
KC: Jakob Junis – R (1-0, 4.76 ERA)
DET: Spencer Turnbull – R (0-1, 5.40 ERA)

Junis has absolutely owned the Tigers over the course of his career, going 6-1 with a 3.12 ERA in seven starts (eight appearances) – he went 4-0 with a 1.95 ERA in five starts against them last season. That should be enough confidence, but you have to think this Tigers squad is a bit too giddy after taking the last two games of their series with the Yanks in New York.

Turnbull is still looking for the first win of his MLB career and he’ll have a tough time doing it against a speedy KC bunch. Being mostly a sinker-ball pitcher, Turnbull could get chipped away at in the cold Detroit weather by a lineup that can put a lot of pressure on the Tigers’ defense.

KC’s bullpen has the fourth-worst ERA (7.27), but the Tigers’ bats aren’t doing much damage either, with only 12 runs over the first seven games. It’s time for the turnaround!

Also, the wind will be blowing in at 9 mph from left field, so that should keep the ball in the park a bit more.

* Final Score Prediction: Kansas City Royals: 4 – Detroit Tigers: 3

[1:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at New York Mets (-128) – Total: 6.5
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (0-0, 6.00 ERA)
NYM: Noah Syndergaard – R (0-0, 6.00 ERA)

This is a starting pitcher’s rematch from the second game of this season, as the Mets got the 11-8 victory the first time around. Strasburg (8) and Syndergaard (7) had a combined 15 strikeouts in six innings apiece last Saturday, but they also gave up four earned runs each in the process.

Vegas has certainly left its mark on this game with a 6.5-run total, and you have to think we’re heading for a pitcher’s duel. The Nationals will be without one of the best base-stealers in the game, Trea Turner, and that should alleviate a great deal of stress that Syndergaard might have about keeping runners on base. In fact, April has been one of the better months over his career, allowing only one homer in 82 2/3 innings since 2016.

The Stras hasn’t been quite as good as Thor in the month of April, but it is worth noting that he does have a 24-5 record with a 2.52 ERA in 34 road starts since 2016.

All in all, we should look for both pitchers to rebound and put on quite the performance. But we’re giving the Mets the win, given their recent hot streak to begin the 2019 campaign.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 3 – Washington Nationals: 2

[3:05 p.m. EST] New York Yankees (-200) at Baltimore Orioles – Total: 8
NYY: James Paxton – L (0-1, 1.59 ERA)
BAL: Alex Cobb – R (Season Debut)

It seems like the remaining healthy players on the Yankees’ roster should be sporting bubble-wrap because they could be the next ones to land on the Injured List (it’s still the Disabled List, I don’t care what anyone says). Those remaining Yanks will head to Baltimore to face the Orioles, who are playing the home opener. Typically, this is a place that New York has gone in and dominated, especially in the crowd, but the start to this season has been anything but typical for the Evil Empire.

Alex Cobb was supposed to take the mound on Opening Day for the O’s before a minor injury negated that opportunity. After a dreadful start to the season, Cobb had some good performances down the stretch, but I don’t think we should be looking for more of the same today. And perhaps, it’ll do the Yanks some good to get away from their anxious fans in the Bronx.

James Paxton will take the mound to do what the Yanks paid him to do – win ball games. He wasn’t bad at all in his season debut against this same O’s squad, allowing four hits, one walk and two runs (one earned) over 5 and 2/3 innings while striking out five.

Neither team has been crushing the ball to start the season, but I do think it’ll do the Yankees some good to hit the road and get their minds right. Look for them to get to Cobb early en route to the victory.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 8 – Baltimore Orioles 3

[3:37 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (-114) at Oakland Athletics – Total: 8.5
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (0-1, 10.38 ERA)
OAK: Brett Anderson – L (1-0, 0.00 ERA)

The Boston Red Sox capped off a thrilling win on Wednesday night with a three-run ninth inning, and the hope is that they take this momentum into today’s game against Brett Anderson and the A’s bullpen. And Lord knows, the defending champs need to get back on the good foot, with only two wins in their first seven games of the season.

The Red Sox pitching has finally settled down a bit, allowing only four runs in the last two games. This comes after they allowed 41 runs over the first five games of the season — Yikes!!! That trend should continue, as today’s starter Eduardo Rodriguez has a 2-1 record and 2.33 ERA in four career starts against the A’s, including a 1-0 record and 1.69 ERA in two starts at Oakland.

I don’t think the Red Sox pitching woes are fully solved in the bullpen, though. After all, there should be some fatigue after playing all these extra playoff games over the last few years, including the World Series run last season. However, this is a desperate Boston team and they get the bats going today.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Oakland Athletics: 4