Tag: Cleveland Indians

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, May 31

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 87-69-4 (55.8%) *

 

[7:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (ML: -150) at New York Yankees
BOS: Chris Sale – L (1-6, 4.19 ERA/1.06 WHIP)
NYY: J.A. Happ – L (4-3, 5.09 ERA/1.23 WHIP)

Chris Sale has been ridiculous over his last seven starts, striking out 74 hitters in 44 1/3 innings. This matchup has frequently gone well for the lanky lefty in the past, as Sale owns a 33.2% K-rate against the Yankees’ current roster.

While the Bronx Bombers have played well so far this season, they’ve been doing it against subpar competition. Not only that, but the Yankees have really struggled against left-handed pitching, with a .272 wOBA, .143 ISO and 33.8% K-rate over the last 14 days.

The Red Sox have been the polar opposite against lefties, tearing them up for a .368 wOBA and .223 ISO over the last 14 days. Most of J.A. Happ’s struggles have come at Yankee Stadium this season, as he’s 2-3 with a 5.93 ERA and nine homers allowed in 30 1/3 innings. The month of May hasn’t been kind to Happ either, as the lefty has a massive 5.61 ERA.

Look for Steve Pearce to have a big night against Happ because this is a matchup he’s dominated in the past. Pearce is 11-for-35 against Happ with a whopping six homers over his career. It’s also a good sign that three different Red Sox (J.D. Martinez: +210, Rafael Devers: +260, Michael Chavis: +270) have favorable odds on their home run prop tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 6 – New York Yankees: 3 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 10 (-110) – Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (4-4, 3.99 ERA/1.16 WHIP)
CHW: Dylan Covey – R (0-4, 5.47 ERA/1.41 WHIP)

Trevor Bauer has been surprisingly bad more than a few times this season. In fact, he has now allowed at least four runs in five of his last six starts. This includes his last outing against the White Sox, where Bauer allowed 10 hits, eight runs (seven earned) and two homers over five innings back on May 6.

Dylan Covey hasn’t been much better, but we expect that from him. The righty has allowed five homers 13 walks over the last 20 1/3 innings – control issues and getting ripped, yikes!

If you couldn’t tell by now, over 10 runs is the play here. We’ve got 11 mph winds blowing out to left field and the two teams saw their IRTs jump significantly – Indians: +0.7, White Sox: +0.4.

One last nugget that should bode well, is that each of the last five Indians’ games has gone over the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 7 – Chicago White Sox: 6 * 

[8:40 p.m. EST] Over 11.5 (-106) – Toronto Blue Jays at Colorado Rockies (1.5-run line: -156)
TOR: Edwin Jackson – R (0-2, 9.00 ERA/1.64 WHIP)
COL: German Marquez – R (5-2, 3.56 ERA/1.12 WHIP)

Edwin Jackson just doesn’t have the goods to compete with this Rockies’ squad with the friendly hitting conditions at Coors Field — the wind will be blowing out to right-center field at 11 mph. Vegas knows this as well, and that’s why Colorado’s 7.6 IRT is a full 1.8 better than the second-highest mark on the slate. Jackson has allowed a total of 13 runs (12 earned) over his last nine innings of work and things don’t appear to be getting any better tonight. The Blue Jays have lost his last two starts by a combined score of 31-6.

That is a good enough reason to take the Rockies on the 1.5-run line alone. However, the total going over 11.5 runs is quite appealing here as well. The Rockies should do a fine job putting up runs on their own, but their starter German Marquez has struggled more in Colorado this season. These splits are absolutely staggering, as he’s allowed 49 hits and a .327 opposing batting average in 35 innings at home – compared to 25 hits and a .167 opposing batting average in 43 1/3 innings on the road.

We’re going to see plenty of guys on base tonight, and the Rockies will come up bigger in the clutch.

* Final Score Prediction: Colorado Rockies: 12 – Toronto Blue Jays: 6 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Memorial Day Monday, May 27

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

Alright, last week was just one bad beat after another. Or should I say, one bad error/blown save after the other. Everyone, do your thing that you do – Woosah, Goosfraba, Hakuna Matata… I ain’t gonna judge you. Let’s get the monkey off the back. After all, we’re still 16 games over .500 in this space!

* 2019 MLB Record: 78-62-4 (56%) *

[2:10 p.m. EST] Under 10  (-120) – Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox (moneyline: -114)
KC: Homer Bailey – R (4-5, 6.13 ERA/1.53 WHIP)
CHW: Ivan Nova – R (3-4, 6.96 ERA/1.77 WHIP)

Yeah, looking at those numbers above and seeing that we’re liking the under is probably making you scratch your head. I’m a bit nervous myself, but there is some good statistical analysis to bring us there. The SK Trend Confidence does have more faith in the under than any other outcome, considering 13 of the White Sox last 18 games have gone under the total, while the Royals have scored three runs or fewer in nine of their last 15 games.

For one, White Sox starter Ivan Nova really hasn’t been as bad as usual over the last few weeks. His only blowup outing came against the Blue Jays, who were seeing him for the second time in six days. Nova, despite allowing 10 hits, actually had really good stuff early on against the Astros – a few of those hits found some holes.

It’s also worth mentioning that Chicago has won four of the last five games that Nova has started. Also, our friends over at EV Analytics like him to reach over 3.5 on his K-prop for today – always a good sign.

What really helps Nova today is home plate umpire Bill Miller, who tends to favor pitchers. In fact, Miller has the third-highest K-rate (21%) and second-lowest on-base percentage (.312) of any umpires with at least 200 games under their belt. Vegas has noticed this and adjusted the total to 9.5 on some books – hopefully, you’ll get yours at 10.

The weather should help alleviate some runs as well, as the wind will be blowing in from center field at 10 mph.

All in all, I do like the White Sox to get this win with a good day from Nova.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 6 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Under 10.5 (-116) – Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox  (1.5-run line: +110)
CLE: Jefry Rodriguez – R (1-4, 4.08 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
BOS: Rick Porcello – R (4-5, 4.45 ERA/1.31 WHIP)

The SK Trend Confidence rating likes the under as the most likely outcome in this game. And it makes plenty of sense, considering Indians’ games have gone under the total in 14 of their last 18 games. The Red Sox also had a weekend full of unders in three straight games against the Astros.

Rick Porcello takes the mound for Boston, and he’s been outstanding with five quality starts over the last six outings. Over that stretch, the veteran righty has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of those outings. The Red Sox offense seems to like when Porcello is on the mound, as they give him an average of 6.4 runs of support in his starts this season.

Jefry Rodriguez has allowed seven hits in three of the last four starts – in the misnomer, he gave up six. It’s interesting that the game total jumped from 9.5 to 10.5, considering how well Porcello has done of late. This leads me to believe the Red Sox will jump all over Rodriguez early and coast to victory.

In terms of value, it makes more sense to bet Boston on the 1.5-run line at +110, as opposed to -180 on the moneyline – the Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. Cleveland has lost six of its last seven games, with each of those losses coming by two runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Cleveland Indians: 3 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, May 18

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 68-43-4 (61.3%) *

[4:05 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies (1.5-run line: +114)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (3-2, 5.35 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (3-0, 4.86 ERA/1.55 WHIP)

The Phillies have the highest IRT (+0.7) and second-highest moneyline (-155 to -176) increases on the day. And that’s a good sign, considering Aaron Nola is on the hill for Philly. Aside from a rough outing against the powerful Brewers, Nola held opposing teams to one run in each of his previous three starts.

Meanwhile, these Rockies are striking out at a 31.8% clip over the last seven days, which is the second-highest in all of baseball. Now that the weather is starting to get a little warmer in Philly, we should see Nola get a better grip on the baseball, thus giving him more movement on those breaking pitches.

Antonio Senzatela has been much better on the road (3.31 ERA) than at home (7.27 ERA) this season, but Vegas has already spoken with the increases for the Phillies today. I have a feeling Rhys Hoskins is about to break out of his recent skid, as Senzatela has allowed more extra-base hits to right-handed hitters. Not to mention, Philly has quite a few righties that can do the same with Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, JT Realmuto and Maikel Franco.

Ultimately, I don’t mind the over in this game, considering the bullpens for both sides rank in the bottom third of MLB over the last seven days, but Philly on the 1.5-run line is where I’m planting my flag.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 7 – Colorado Rockies: 3 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 (-122) – Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians
BAL: John Means – L (5-3, 2.33 ERA/1.03 WHIP)
CLE: Adam Plutko – R (season debut)

Progressive Field is one of the few stadiums in baseball that has to deal with these pesky shadows for mid-day games. That’s bad news for an Indians team that already has the fourth-highest K-rate (28.1%) against left-handed pitching.

Hopefully, those shadows help Adam Plutko, who will be making his season debut after pitching down in Triple-A. He did make 17 appearances (12 starts) last season, going 4-5 with a 5.28 ERA, but did pitch well against this Baltimore team during that stretch.

All in all, the background conditions should be able to give a nice boost to both pitchers today early on, and that should hold off the double-digit total for long enough. The SK Trend Confidence rating also likes this game as one of its top plays today.

* Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles: 4 – Cleveland Indians: 3 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels (1.5-run line: +106)
KC: Jakob Junis – R (3-4, 5.77 ERA/1.55 WHIP)
LAA: Griffin Canning – R (1-1, 5.65 ERA/1.33 WHIP)

A lot of people that I trust are big on this Griffin Canning kid, and I can pick up what they’re putting down. Despite losing at hitter-friendly Camden Yards in his last outing, Canning has posted at least six strikeouts in all three of his starts this season. The Royals’ offense has been quite stagnant of late, with only four runs over the last three games. Prior to yesterday’s two-run output, KC posted one run or fewer in four of five games.

Jakob Junis has not been good this season, allowing at least eight baserunners in seven of his last eight starts. That’s not good news for an Angels team that has a massive .401 wOBA and .219 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Just as we did yesterday, we’re going with the Angels big here.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 8 – Kansas City Royals: 3 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, May 16

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 61-38-4 (61.6%) *

[6:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-104) – Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians (1.5-run line: -152)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-3, 8.23 ERA/1.83 WHIP)
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (4-2, 3.02 ERA/1.11 WHIP)

Dan Straily has actually been solid away from Camden Yards this season. Only two of his seven starts have come on the road and they were against the Red Sox and Twins, two of the better offenses in baseball. Straily allowed only one earned run over nine innings in those games.

It’s not like today’s opponent has been crushing the ball either. The Indians rank third-worst in all of MLB with a .282 wOBA (weight on-base average) against right-handed pitching. Over the last 14 days against righties, Cleveland’s projected lineup owns a .320 wOBA and .099 ISO – both of which, are not good at all. Not to mention, seven of the last eight Indians’ games have gone under the total.

Now, the real reason for the total going under is Trevor Bauer in a fantastic matchup against the Orioles. Bauer had a fantastic outing in Oakland last time out after two uncharacteristically-bad starts against lesser teams (MIA, CHW). This is still one of the best pitchers in baseball taking the mound against an offense that has scored three runs or fewer in seven of the last 10 games.

Just like the majority of Indians’ games coming in under the total, Orioles’ contests have suffered the same fate in 12 of their last 16, including each of the last four. Also, like Cleveland, Baltimore’s projected lineup is struggling against right-handed pitching with a .257 wOBA and .119 ISO over the last 14 days.

The SK Trend Confidence rating has the under in this game as the top MLB play of the night, and the zaftig juice (-152) on the 1.5-run line is a pretty good indicator that the Indians will get the comfortable win.

* Final Score Projection: Cleveland Indians: 6 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

[6:40 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-114) – Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (moneyline: -135)
CHC: Jose Quintana – L (4-2, 3.50 ERA/1.25 WHIP)
CIN: Luis Castillo – R (4-1, 1.76 ERA/0.99 WHIP)

This may seem like a scary proposition with an 8.5-run total at one of the best hitting parks in baseball, but we do have two elite pitchers in solid form. The total has decreased incrementally in each game of this series, so we are trending in the right direction here.

I’m expecting a big performance from Luis Castillo, given the fact that Cincy’s moneyline odds have the second-highest increase (-110 to -135) of the day. The electric righty has been efficient in every split this season, especially with a 2-1 record and 1.65 ERA in five home starts, while going 4-0 with a 1.23 ERA in six nighttime starts.

Chicago had a streak of six straight games with the total going under snapped last night. Even though they posted five runs on Wednesday, four of them came via the home run – they won’t have that fortune tonight against Castillo.

Jose Quintana will be able to keep this Reds’ offense off the scoreboard for most of the night. Against tough competition (MIL, STL, ARZ, LAD), the lefty has been able to hold these team to three runs or fewer in each of the last four starts. Cincy has done fairly well against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days, and that is likely how they get the win, but I think JQ at least holds them to around three or four runs.

The SK Trend Confidence rating likes the under more than any other outcome in this game, but the massive moneyline increase for the Reds is quite telling here as well.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 5 – Chicago Cubs: 2 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-110) – Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (moneyline: -125)
PIT: Trevor Williams – R (2-1, 3.40 ERA/1.15 WHIP)
SD: Eric Lauer – L (2-4, 5.75 ERA/1.45 WHIP)

Eric Lauer is coming off his worst start of the season, which was a very tough road matchup at Coors Field, but the guy comes through when gifted with favorable matchups. The Pirates head to San Diego with MLB’s worst ISO (.091), third-worst wOBA (.266) and fifth-highest K-rate (28.2%) against left-handed pitching. Over the last 14 days, Pittsburgh has a .023 ISO – for reference, that’s a level or two above stepping to the plate without a bat.

San Diego’s offense hasn’t been much better, striking out at a 33% clip against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days – the highest of any split on the day. Trevor Williams needs all the help he can get, after allowing 25 hits over his last 19 innings of work. The righty has been able to keep runs off the board, for the most part, but those baserunners could ultimately be the determining factor in who wins tonight.

The game total has dropped a half-run, while the Padres (-0.2) and Pirates’ (-0.3) IRTs have dropped as well. Look for the Padres to take a close, low-scoring game.

* Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres: 3 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 8

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 48-34-3 (58.5%) *

[6:10 p.m. EST] Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (-1.5, +108)
CHW: Reynaldo Lopez – R (2-4, 6.69 ERA/1.76 WHIP)
CLE: Shane Bieber – R (2-1, 3.16 ERA/1.03 WHIP)

OK, enough is enough already with these White Sox taking games against the Indians. Chicago got the first two games of this series and now trot out Reynaldo Lopez and his 1.76 WHIP, which ranks second-worst of any starting pitcher in baseball with at least 30 innings under his belt. If Cleveland ever had a pitcher to break out of its recent offensive funk, Lopez is certainly the guy to help out.

The Tribe is rolling out Shane Bieber, who has notched a quality start in five of his last six outings. While the White Sox did hang nine runs on Monday night against Trevor Bauer, they have scored two runs or fewer in four of the last five games.

Call this revenge, call this a team that’s due – call it what you will. The Indians are going to make up for their recent misfortunes in a big way today.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 6 – Chicago White Sox: 2 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (-1.5, -166) at Baltimore Orioles
BOS: Chris Sale – L (5.25 ERA/1.28 WHIP)
BAL: Andrew Cashner – R (4.71 ERA/1.46 WHIP)

The Red Sox have the highest moneyline increase (-245 to -281) on the slate and massive -166 odds on the 1.5 run-line. Needless to say, things are shaping up nicely for the defending champs on the road tonight.

Chris Sale is coming off his best outing of the season – no coincidence that it came against his former team – as he pitched six innings of scoreless ball with 10 strikeouts. The lanky lefty is 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA in seven starts against the Orioles since he joined the Red Sox. Not to mention, Baltimore has the lowest IRT (3.1) on the slate and have struck out at a zaftig 27.3% clip against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Andrew Cashner takes the mound for Bird Gang, and he’s been prone to have a surprisingly good outing every now and again. Luckily, his outings don’t last too long, with only two of his seven starts going for six innings or more. That’s good news, considering the Orioles bullpen has the worst ERA (6.13) in the American League and second-worst in all of baseball.

I expect the Red Sox to get off to a slow start offensively and then finally hammer this thing home late, with Sale, of course, keeping the Orioles off the scoreboard for most of the night. The SK Trend Confidence for the Red Sox on the 1.5 run-line is one of the highest on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros (-1.5, -110)
KC: Jorge Lopez – R (0-3, 5.09 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
HOU: Brad Peacock – R (2-2, 5.28 ERA/1.21 WHIP)

The Astros got rolled up and smoked in front of their home fans last night, so I’d expect them to come out with a focused mindset this evening. Houston ranks in the top five of MLB in nearly every advanced metric against right-handed pitching, so there’s no surprise that its 5.7 IRT is the highest on tonight’s slate.

Royals pitcher Jorge Lopez hasn’t fared well of late, allowing four runs in each of his last four starts. If that wasn’t bad enough, Kansas City has lost six of his seven starts this season.

Brad Peacock takes the mound for Houston, and he just simply hasn’t been at his best this season, as was evident in that last start against the Twins. While we don’t look at the Royals as a powerhouse offense, they’re a pesky bunch that gets the job done in a variety of ways. Hell, they did just post 12 runs last night.

I feel like the Astros on the 1.5 run-line is a solid play, but the over is what really grabs my attention.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 7 – Kansas City Royals: 5 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, May 6

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 45-32-3 (58.4%) *

[6:10 p.m. EST] Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (-1.5, -130)
CHW: Ivan Nova – R (0-3, 8.33 ERA)
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (4-1, 2.45 ERA)

It’s been a rough start to 2019 for Ivan Nova, to say the least, allowing 48 hits and 29 runs over 31 1/3 innings. Things won’t be getting any easier as he’ll face the Indians, who have absolutely destroyed Nova lifetime. In fact, the Tribe’s current roster owns a combined .379 batting average, .446 on-base percentage and 1.082 OPS against him in 73 career plate appearances.

Trevor Bauer has suddenly become somewhat of a generous pitcher, allowing 10 walks over his last 15 innings of work. Luckily, he has handled this White Sox with relative ease since 2016, going 5-2 with a 3.03 ERA in 10 outings. Not to mention, the current Pale Hose roster owns a combined .192 batting average, .242 on-base percentage and 32.6% K-rate in 175 career plate appearances against Bauer.

Because of the history with these two starting pitchers against their respective opponents, bettors will get much more value on the Indians with the 1.5 run-line at -130, as opposed to the -250 moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 7 – Chicago White Sox: 3 *

[7:07 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-122) – Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
MIN: Martin Perez – L (4-0, 3.41 ERA)
TOR: Marcus Stroman – R (1-4, 2.20 ERA)

Both of these starting pitchers have had great success this season, despite the traditional numbers not looking all that glamorous. Success, of course, meaning keeping opposing runs off the scoreboard.

In fact, Martin Perez has allowed one run or fewer in three of his last four outings, while Stroman has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his seven starts this season. Stroman’s only misnomer came in his last outing at Anaheim, but he’s a crafty veteran that rarely has two bad outings in a row. Perez should benefit from facing a Blue Jays team that ranks in the bottom five of most advanced metrics against left-handed pitching.

Also helping the under this game is the fact that Toronto has scored three runs or fewer in five of its last six games.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 4 – Minnesota Twins: 3*

[8:05 p.m. EST] Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs (-1.5, -120)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara – R (1-3, 4.86 ERA)
CHC: Cole Hamels – L (3-0, 3.19 ERA)

The Cubs just completed a three-game sweep over the rival Cardinals, so that brings their winning streak to seven games, and they are now 16-4 over their last 20. It shouldn’t be too hard for Chicago to continue their dominant run, facing a Miami team that has scored three runs or fewer in 18 of its last 23 games.

Cole Hamels takes the ball for the Cubbies and he’ll go up against a Marlins team that ranks in the bottom five of most advanced metrics against left-handed pitching. The former World Series MVP has been his usual dominant self, with a 1.09 WHIP, and that’s even going against tough competition like the Brewers, Dodgers, Mariners and Rangers. One of those starts, though, was versus this stagnant Miami offense and Hamels pitched seven innings of shutout ball to get the win back on April 17.

Bettors should feel quite confident going with the Cubs on the 1.5 run-line, considering Hamels has managed to get an average of eight runs of support in his six starts this season. Although the game total sits at seven, I expect Chicago to post all the runs on the scoreboard tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 5 – Miami Marlins: 0 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, May 4

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 43-30-2 (59%) *

[4:05 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (-122)
STL: Michael Wacha – R (2-0, 4.78 ERA)
CHC: Yu Darvish – R (2-3, 5.02 ERA)

The Cubs are hot right now, going 14-4 over their last 18 games, including wins in five straight. Michael Wacha has had plenty of troubles with the NL Central rival, as its current roster has a combined .331 batting average, .390 on-base percentage and .997 OPS against him, including 10 homers in 178 plate appearances. Anthony Rizzo is the happiest of the bunch to see Wacha, as he’s gone 20-for-42 lifetime with two doubles, three homers and only three strikeouts in 44 plate appearances.

Yu Darvish has looked much better in each of his last three starts, with a 2-1 record and 23 strikeouts over 16 2/3 innings. If he could just keep those walks down (22 in 28 2/3 innings this season), it may show that Darvish is finally back from the truly awful start he got off to this season. There is some comfort in knowing that each of his two lowest walk totals this season came in starts at Wrigley Field.

All in all, the matchup of Wacha against the Cubs could be too much for the Red Birds to overcome. Darvish is looking much better and it just adds more optimism to a Cubs team that is rolling right now.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 5 – St. Louis Cardinals: 2 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Indians (-1.5, +102)
SEA: Mike Leake – R (2-3, 4.98 ERA)
CLE: Carlos Carrasco – R (2-3, 5.86 ERA)

It has been a nightmarish run for the Mariners after their amazing start to this season. After getting out to a 13-2 record, Seattle has now lost 14 of its last 19, including five straight. Mike Leake goes for the Mariners and it hasn’t gone well for him recently, allowing four runs or more in three of the last four starts and eight homers over that span – 22 innings.

Carlos Carrasco has settled down a bit after a tumultuous start to the season, and that includes a 12-strikeout performance against these same Mariners a little more than two weeks ago. Not to mention, Seattle is in a truly-bad funk right now, scoring one run or less in four of the last five.

Keeping it simple here with a shutdown performance from Carrasco and the Indians cruising to victory. Cleveland’s 1.5-run line has much more value at +102, as opposed to the -205 moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 8 – Seattle Mariners: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 (-104) – New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
NYM: Zack Wheeler – R (2-2, 5.05 ERA)
MIL: Gio Gonzalez – L (0-0, 3.60 ERA)

Vegas has already put its stamp on this game, increasing the IRTs for both sides (Mets: +0.4, Brewers: +0.6) and the game total from eight to nine. Reason being, these two teams own the worst ERAs in the National League – Friday’s 3-1 win by Milwaukee was a mere misnomer.

The Mets’ offense should be able to get it going against Gio Gonzalez, who is facing them for the second time in as many starts. Gonzalez was in a lot of trouble during the first two innings of that game, but the Mets’ offense faced some bad luck by hitting into two double plays, which thwarted more runs crossing the plate.

There’s been a running joke on Zack Wheeler’s success tied to not facing the Nationals, but that notion was stumped in his last outing when he gave four runs in the second inning to the Reds. The Brewers will likely get Christian Yelich back in their lineup today and that’s just a good sign in general for offense.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 6 – Milwaukee Brewers: 5 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 1

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 36-27-2 (57.1%) *

[6:40 p.m. EST] Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners (-102)
CHC: Jon Lester – L (1-1, 2.37 ERA)
SEA: Marco Gonzales – L (5-0, 2.80 ERA)

Marco Gonzales has been fantastic at T-Mobile Park this season, going 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in four starts there. The Cubs have been quite good against left-handed pitching this season, ranking in the Top-10 of most categories, but they do have a big series against the rival Cardinals starting Friday afternoon. Perhaps, Gonzales catches a Chicago team looking ahead to its next series and continues that string of dominance at home.

Jon Lester will be pitching about 35 miles from the place he attended high school (Tacoma, WA) as a teenager — could be some distractions with family, ticket requests, etc. In his last start, Lester returned from a two-week stint on the Injured List and looked great in five limited innings against the Dodgers. However, if the Cubs hold him to about 79 pitches once again, that means their bullpen will present in this game. And that’s a good thing for the Mariners, considering the Cub’s pen has the second-worst SIERA (skill-interactive earned run average) over the last seven days. Additionally, the Seattle’s offense has the second-best analytical metrics against left-handed pitching this season, which could certainly make life even more difficult on Lester.

* Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners: 7 – Chicago Cubs: 3 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5, -120)
DET: Daniel Norris – L (1-0, 3.93 ERA)
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (2-0, 5.68 ERA)

OK, let’s try this again. I took the Phillies on the 1.5-run line yesterday and that was an absolute disaster. Part of that could be due to the Tigers changing their starting pitcher mid-day, thus not giving Philly enough time to prepare for Spencer Turnbull.

It’s about damn time that Aaron Nola gets back on the good foot. He hasn’t had that trademark ace-start since Opening Day, although, holding the Marlins to one run in that last start still came at the expense of allowing seven hits. However, the Tigers own the third-worst power metrics (ISO: .141) and fifth-worst weighted on-base percentage (wOBA: .290) against right-handed pitching. Nola has been fantastic at Citizens Bank Park over the course of his career, compiling a 25-14 record to go along with a 3.17 ERA in 50 career starts there.

The total on this game dropped an entire run, as did each team’s IRT (Tigers: -0.7, Phillies: -0.4), so I believe that’s even further evidence that Nola gets back to elite form tonight. Not to mention, the Phils -245 moneyline number is BY FAR their highest of the season and their 42-digit increase on the moneyline since the open is the highest of any team on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – Detroit Tigers: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 – Cleveland Indians at Miami Marlins
CLE: Corey Kluber – R (2-2, 5.81 ERA)
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (2-0, 2.17 ERA)

This is an excellent pitching matchup going down in Miami tonight, and it’s quite interesting to note that Caleb Smith is actually the one coming in on a high note – not Corey Kluber. Smith has been dazzling tough NL East opponents in each of his five starts, the last four being of the quality variety. In fact, Smith has allowed 2 runs or fewer in four of those five starts. The Indians’ offense has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching this season, ranking in the bottom five of most major categories in that split.

Kluber, much like Nola (who I talked about earlier), needs to get back on the good foot to elite form. Aside from Opening Day (again like Nola), Kluber really hasn’t had that trademark ace-start that we’re all so accustomed to. Thankfully, he’ll be taking on a National League team, which takes away the DH, and it helps that the Marlins are one of (if not) the worst offensive team in baseball.

So, we’ve got two talented pitchers against two anemic offenses. No reason to get cute here, especially with the game total dropping a half-run to 6.5. Also, the Indians’ IRT (-0.5) and moneyline (-34 digits) both dropped significantly, thus alluding to yet another good outing by Smith. I don’t think the Marlins rough up Kluber, but it does seem like they could pull the upset in a low-scoring game tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins: 3 – Cleveland Indians: 2 *  

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, April 11 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[12:35 p.m. EST] Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds (-165) – Total: 8.5
MIA: Pablo Lopez – R (1-1, 6.10 ERA)
CIN: Sonny Gray – R (0-2, 2.89 ERA)

The Marlins’ bats are struggling mightily on this current road trip, with only eight runs over the last five games. And it’s even more disheartening that they have only posted one run at The Great American Ballpark, which is an absolute launching pad most of the time.

Gray hasn’t gotten one run of support from Reds’ bats yet this season but today could be the day against Lopez, who has shown signs of vulnerability at times this season. Being in the offensive haven that is The Great American Ballpark, that probably won’t play well for him and the rest of the Marlins on getaway day.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 6 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

[12:35 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles (+132) – Total: 9.5
OAK: Aaron Brooks – R (1-1, 4.09 ERA)
BAL: Dylan Bundy – R (0-0, 7.36 ERA)

Last season, Bundy had a 6-1 record and 2.28 ERA in day games, compared to the 2-15 mark and 7.48 ERA he posted in night games. Well, his first start during the afternoon this season didn’t go as planned, but I wouldn’t mind taking a chance on him against an A’s team that will essentially be playing this game at 9:35 a.m. on their biological clock. Granted, Oakland has had three games already here in Baltimore but playing one in the early afternoon is a much tougher task.

The Orioles’ +132 moneyline number in this game really isn’t too bad of a spot, considering the general public doesn’t really think much of them. It’s always a risk taking Baltimore, but they might catch Oakland literally sleeping in this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles: 6 – Oakland A’s: 3 *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Under 8 – Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers
CLE: Shane Bieber – R (0-0, 3.38 ERA)
DET: Spencer Turnbull – R (0-1, 4.08 ERA)

Bieber Fever finally got his first start of the season on Friday and looked sharp, allowing only two hits, two walks and two runs over six innings while striking out nine against the Blue Jays. Detroit is still one of the worst offensive teams to start the 2019 campaign with 37 runs in 13 games and will likely have a hard time improving today.

On the other side, it’s not like Cleveland’s bats have been much better, with only 40 runs over 12 games. Turnbull goes for the Tigers, and while he’s been average, it’s not like the Tribe’s offense should be scaring anyone at the moment.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 3 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, April 10 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[1:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (1-0, 0.64 ERA)
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (0-1, 3.18 ERA)

Trevor Bauer has been absolutely dominant to open the season, allowing only one hit over 14 innings while striking out 17 batters. The outspoken righty did allow six walks in his last start, but this is a guy that has proven to be one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last couple of seasons – he’ll get those mishaps under control. Bauer went 4-0 with a 1.23 ERA against the Tigers last season, striking out 40 batters over the course of 29 1/3 innings.

Matthew Boyd has looked fantastic as well, notching double-digit strikeouts in each of his last two starts. The southpaw has yet to get a win, and it’ll certainly be difficult to do so against Bauer. However, only one Indians’ player, Francisco Lindor, has crushed Boyd much… and he’s on the Injured List.

Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-40s today at Comerica Park, so I wouldn’t expect the ball to be flying out of the yard. The Tigers rank dead-last in all of MLB with 29 runs, while the Indians aren’t too far behind with 38. Not to mention, both team’s bullpen rank in the Top-10 of ERA – Indians: 5th (2.63), Tigers: 7th (2.81). More than enough trends are lining up to take the under in this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 4 – Detroit Tigers: 1 *

[2:10 p.m. EST] Tampa Bay Rays (-150) at Chicago White Sox – Total: 8
TB: Tyler Glasnow – R (2-0, 0.82 ERA)
CHW: Reynaldo Lopez – R (0-1, 10.00 ERA)

Tyler Glasnow has been an absolute stud for Tampa Bay early on, allowing one run over his first two starts. One thing I’ll always mention about the Rays is their bullpen, which ranks second in all of MLB with a 2.05 ERA. And that’s important, considering Glasnow will probably max out at six innings this early in the season.

On the flip side, the White Sox bullpen ranks 25th with a 6.61 ERA, and that’s important because we’ll probably see a lot of them today. Reynaldo Lopez has gotten ripped in each of his last two starts, and the Rays can make life difficult for him by piecing together their patented small-ball way of life.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 8 – Chicago White Sox: 2 *