Tag: Colorado Rockies

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, June 21

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 114-96-4 (54.2%) *

 

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-108) – Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies (1.5-run line: -128)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara – R (3-6, 3.73 ERA/1.39 WHIP)
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (6-1, 4.89 ERA/1.51 WHIP)

Both teams have been absolutely dreadful against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, with the Marlins registering slightly worse numbers. Their .086 ISO in that split will certainly be hard to overcome, especially with 12 mph winds blowing in from left field.

If you think runs at Citizens Bank Park are always at a premium, that’s just not the case – eight of the last 12 games there have gone under the total.

Aaron Nola certainly hasn’t been at his best recently (and most of this season), but this matchup against the Marlins is one that he’s dominated in the past. Over his last five starts (33 innings) against Miami, the righty has allowed only six runs and a 1.00 WHIP. While the matchup lends some optimism, Nola has been much better at Citizens Bank Park over the course of his career. His numbers certainly signal that this season, as evidenced by the 3.51 ERA at home and 7.28 ERA on the road.

Philly’s offense really sputtered in the last game of the Atlanta series and then throughout the Washington series. As I mentioned at the top, their numbers aren’t great against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days – .280 wOBA and 25% K-rate. On the season as a whole, the Phils now own the eighth-worst wOBA (.309) against righties.

Sandy Alcantara was snake-bitten by his defense in a recent start, but he’s allowed one earned run or fewer now in four of the last six starts. The righty has only faced Philly twice in his career, with one glamorous outing and one bad outing – that one coming this season. However, given the Phils’ current state of affairs at the plate and the wind blowing in tonight, I’m not too worried about Alcantara getting beat over the head.

I like the Phils to get the victory, but it’ll have to come in a tight game. Philly is 5-2 against Miami this season, with a four of the seven games going under the total. The SK Trend Confidence rating is also high on the Phils to get this win on the 1.5-run line, and that plays right into the narrative.

* Final Score Prediction – Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8 (-118) – Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (5-5, 3.35 ERA/1.08 WHIP)
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (5-6, 3.41 ERA/1.12 WHIP)

Vegas knows that a big-time pitching performance is coming from one of these studs tonight, as both teams had their IRTs decreased – Indians: -0.6, Tigers: -0.4. Also, it’s not an overwhelming sign, but it does help that there will be 7 mph winds blowing in from center field.

What Trevor Bauer did against the Tigers in his last outing will be greatly appreciated if he does it again. The quirky righty had his first complete-game shutout of the season in the eight-strikeout performance, en route to an 8-0 Indians’ victory. It does appear like Bauer could be finally getting back on track after a shaky start to the season. In Bauer’s previous outing, he allowed one run over 7 2/3 innings and that’s now back-to-back performances that notched Indians’ wins.

It’s also worth noting that Cleveland’s bullpen has the best ERA (3.36) in baseball.

Matt Boyd is coming off his worst performance of the season, which was quite shocking since it was against a Royals’ team that is woeful against left-handed pitching. I’m not going to write him off because he still has elite swing-and-miss stuff, notching 112 strikeouts in 88 2/3 innings this season. Boyd has actually held Cleveland to one run or fewer in four of his seven career performance – in three other games, Boyd held them to two, three and six runs. There’s a history of goodness here.

Cleveland is 5-1 against the Detroit this season, with under registering a 4-1-1 record in those games. The Indians have also outscored the Tigers 38-12 this season.

The total going under is the fifth-highest SK Trend Confidence rating on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 5 – Detroit Tigers: 1 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-118) – Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
CIN: Sonny Gray – R (3-5, 3.77 ERA/1.21 WHIP)
MIL: Chase Anderson – R (3-1, 4.05 ERA/1.39 WHIP)

There are very strong trends for the total going under in Milwaukee tonight, and it’s actually the second-highest graded pick in our system. It’s also good news that both teams have seen their IRTs decrease – Brewers: -0.2, Reds: -0.3 – since the open.

Five of the six Brewers-Reds games this season have gone under the total, and both starting pitchers have a great history against each team. Not to mention, 15 of the last 16 Reds’ games have gone under the total, while Brewers’ games have suffered the same fate in three of the last four.

Let’s start with Sonny Gray, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all but one of his 14 starts this season. In his last outing against Milwaukee, Gray matched a season-high nine strikeouts en route to a Cincy 3-0 victory. He could have another big performance like that one, considering the Brewers own a 31.3% K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

Behind Gray is the Reds’ bullpen, who has allowed the fewest homers (28) and second-lowest ERA (3.40) in baseball.

Chase Anderson doesn’t have a long leash, compared to most MLB pitchers, so we’re essentially relying on the Brewers’ bullpen for half the game. They have the 10th-best ERA (3.38) and are right around that same area for the season.

It’s not like Anderson has been getting crushed, but he should do just fine against a Reds’ lineup that owns a dreadful .266 xwOBA against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days. After that, the Brewers’ bullpen will pick it up from there.

I don’t necessarily like a side here, but a low-scoring game is certainly on the horizon.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 3 – Cincinnati Reds: 2 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers (ML: -190/1.5-run line: +120)
COL: German Marquez – R (7-3, 4.57 ERA/1.23 WHIP)
LAD: Walker Buehler – R (7-1, 3.06 ERA/0.92 WHIP)

We’ve got a tale of two pitchers heading in opposite directions, and that’s why the SK Trend Confidence rating is the highest on the Dodgers tonight. LA’s moneyline and 1.5-run are the top trends of any other selections on the entire day’s slate.

Walker Buehler has been downright filthy, allowing one earned run or fewer in six of his last starts. The young righty has done some of his best work lately against some of the better bats in the National League – Cubs and D-Backs. Over his last 22 innings of work, Buehler has allowed one run and a ridiculous 0.45 WHIP while striking out 26 batters.

Sure, the Rockies have plenty of talented bats, but they have their fair share of games with a high strikeout total. Not to mention, their current roster has a combined .189 batting average and .267 on-base percentage against Buehler lifetime.

On the other hand, German Marquez is getting absolutely ripped by opposing hitters. Over the last three games/17 innings (Cubs x2, Padres), he’s allowed 22 hits (5 HR), seven walks and 19 runs. Yikes! A good number of these Dodgers’ hitters have a solid history against Marquez, and it’s setting up to be another good night for the boys in blue.

The Dodgers are 31-9 at home and 21-5 at home against teams with a right-handed starting pitcher this season.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 6 – Colorado Rockies: 0 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, June 7

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

NBA Finals – Game 4: Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors (-4.5, -110/ML: -196)

Here we go! The Golden State Warriors find themselves in a familiar 1-2 hole, a place they have climbed out of before three times en route to a title in previous years. I do think the safer route to go is with the Warriors on the moneyline, but it also means we’re going to have to put up a lot in order to do so.

Golden State will have Klay Thompson back in the lineup, albeit not at 100 percent. We can even make the argument that Steve Kerr knew exactly what he was doing, resting Klay in Game 3 and sacrificing the battle for the war. Regardless, his presence will force Toronto to focus on him, and give the Warriors’ role players more room to operate on the offensive end. Look for DeMarcus Cousins to be more focused and take a vengeful approach to this contest after Marc Gasol thoroughly outplayed him in Game 3.

The Raptors have plenty of firepower that has shown up as the playoffs have gone along, but let’s pump the breaks a bit. Danny Green had an outstanding Game 3, and you have to think the Warriors get all up in his grill. Kawhi Leonard will always be the focal point of the Raptors’ offense but look for Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala to turn up the defensive intensity a bit.

Speaking of Dray, we know he always turns it up a bit when the Warriors’ backs are against the wall. FanDuel Sportsbook has his odds to get a triple-double at +220 tonight. Essentially, they’re saying it’s going to happen – the next closest player is Stephen Curry at +2600. If that’s the case, and Dray gets the trip-dub, the Warriors are probably going to win this game.

How many times have we seen the Warriors look like they were dead in the water, and then pop up right back up with the good stuff? I’d love to take the Warriors at -4.5, but Klay’s status is one that could ultimately determine how close the game is. Let’s play it safe…

* Final Score Prediction: Golden State Warriors: 110 – Toronto Raptors: 107 *


* 2019 MLB Record: 96-78-4 (55.2%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at New York Mets (1.5-run line: +116)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (4-4, 5.33 ERA/1.59 WHIP)
NYM: Jacob deGrom – R (3-5, 3.49 ERA/1.15 WHIP)

Jacob deGrom certainly hasn’t been at his best this season, but tonight’s opponent will certainly be a welcome sight. The right-handed ace has absolutely dominated the Rockies over the course of his career, as the current roster owns a putrid .167 batting average and .189 on-base percentage in 111 plate appearances. I think the most amazing takeaway from this is that deGrom has allowed only one earned run in 30 innings when pitching against the Rockies at Citi Field.

Antonio Senzatela got away with facing a downtrodden Blue Jays offense in his last start, but he did allow nine hits in each of the two outings before that. Not to mention, this guy can’t stop walking people – in the month of May, Senzatela issued 15 free passes over 29 2/3 innings.

deGrom is going to dominate the Rockies once again, as evidenced by the zaftig moneyline given by Vegas. I do think we can steal some money here, going with the 1.5-run line (at +114) as opposed to the massive moneyline which is at -210.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 5 – Colorado Rockies: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 7.5 (-106) – Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (6-1, 1.41 ERA/0.91 WHIP)
MIA: Jose Urena – R (4-6, 4.14 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

Jose Urena has actually pitched very well of late, with a quality start in each of his last five outings. However, the last time he failed to do so came against the same Braves’ team he’ll see tonight – Urena allowed five runs over six innings in that game. In fact, Atlanta has performed quite well against the righty in recent history, with at least four runs against him in each of the last three meetings — five runs against him in each of the last two meetings.

Before scoring one run in Pittsburgh on get-away day yesterday, Atlanta scored 33 runs in the previous four games.

Mike Soroka finally showed signs that he’s human in that last start against the Tigers, allowing four runs (three earned) over 6 2/3 innings. The Marlins also had a one-run get-away day yesterday, but they too went bananas in the previous four games, scoring 42 runs over that span. I’m not saying Soroka is going to get beat over the head, but I do think Miami can put up at least three runs here and add to the total.

All in all, I feel like the 7.5 total is certainly a level that could be reached tonight. Both of these teams have been hot offensively, and Atlanta’s history of success against Urena is well-documented.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 6 – Miami Marlins: 3 *

[10:15 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -144) at San Francisco Giants
LAD: Clayton Kershaw – L (5-0, 3.20 ERA/1.05 WHIP)
SF: Drew Pomeranz – L (1-6, 8.08 ERA/1.87 WHIP)

Clayton Kershaw takes his unbeaten record into Oracle Park tonight against a Giants team that ranks dead-last in wOBA (.268) against left-handed pitching. Yes, this is the same Giants team that allowed Jason Vargas to throw a complete-game shutout against them earlier this week. That, right there, is really all the evidence I need, and I reeeeeally should just end it there.

But I won’t. I’m an elite-level sports betting journalist… or so it says on my Hinge profile.

Kershaw has owned San Francisco over the course of his career, going 22-10 with a 1.70 ERA, six complete games and five shutouts in 44 starts. Not to mention, the current Giants’ lineup has a putrid .198 batting average and .231 on-base percentage against Kershaw in 360 plate appearances. It’s no surprise that the Giants’ 3.0 IRT is the lowest on tonight’s slate.

Drew Pomeranz takes the mound for the Giants and he’s glad the calendar has flipped to June – not that it’ll do him any good. The month of May was an absolute disaster as he wound up with a 19.16 ERA (yes, that is correct), 22 runs allowed in 10 1/3 innings.

The Dodgers haven’t been outstanding against left-handed pitching of late, but seeing Pomeranz should increase their metrics quite a bit. After all, the Dodgers are ninth in wOBA (.332) against lefties this season, but their .307 mark over the last 14 days in that split is just more of a testament to the pitchers they’ve faced.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 1 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, June 4

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 93-76-4 (55%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Atlanta Braves (1.5-run line: -102) at Pittsburgh Pirates
ATL: Max Fried – L (7-3, 3.19 ERA/1.21 WHIP)
PIT: Steven Brault – L (2-1, 5.87 ERA/1.60 WHIP)

Any time the Braves are going against a lefty, they’re getting immediate consideration from me. Steven Brault may have pitched well in each of his last two starts, but I’m not fooled by who this guy really is. In fact, his control issues are truly scary, allowing 14 free passes over his last 22 innings of work – yikes!!!

Not to mention, Atlanta is absolutely hammering lefties over the last 14 days with a .372 xwOBA (metric for quality contact) and .255 ISO (metric for power) – both numbers are in elite territory. If Brault’s control issues continue to be a problem, Atlanta will make him pay for all of those extra baserunners.

Brault typically doesn’t go too deep into games, but that’s still fine for Braves’ bats. Over the last 14 days, the Pirates’ bullpen ranks in the bottom five of MLB in most advanced metrics.

When we talk about the Pirates’ bats against left-handed pitching it’s the exact opposite, as they rank third-worst in wOBA (weighted on-base average) at .282. While Pittsburgh isn’t striking out much over the last 14 days against lefties, a good portion of its lineup isn’t making much quality contact either.

Max Fried doesn’t strike a ton of batters out, but his 55% ground-ball rate should play well against the Pirates. It also helps that PNC Park is one of the worst hitting/power parks for right-handed batters, playing right into Fried’s strengths.

The Braves’ moneyline increase (-130 to -166) is the third-highest on tonight’s full slate of games. I don’t mind taking the 1.5-run line here, considering 15 of the Pirates’ 16 losses since the start of May have come by two runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 6 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 3 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-104) – Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers
TB: Blake Snell – L (3-4, 3.06 ERA/1.04 WHIP)
DET: Ryan Carpenter – L (0-2, 7.58 ERA/1.47 WHIP)

We’ve got two lefties going toe-to-toe at Comerica Park tonight, and I like the total to go under 8.5 runs. But, of course, we’re looking for Blake Snell to be the one that carries us there.

Snell has been fantastic, allowing two runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 outings. While the Tigers have been a bit more pesky of late, Snell is in a totally different category. He hasn’t had all of these 10-plus strikeout games that we’ve been accustomed to, but he is keeping runs off the scoreboard.

Ryan Carpenter has been much better over his last two starts, allowing two runs each time out. The key here is Tampa Bay against lefties, who own the highest K-rate (30%) in that split this season. Not to mention, the numbers have really shown their struggles against lefties over the last 14 days, as the Rays own a putrid .285 xwOBA, .150 ISO and 26% K-rate.

The Rays are much better on the road, so I’ll give them the nudge there. Especially having Snell on the mound will help too.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 4 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs (1.5-run line: -130)
COL: Jeff Hoffman – R (1-1, 7.20 ERA/1.60 WHIP)
CHC: Kyle Hendricks – R (5-4, 3.09 ERA/1.11 WHIP)

The Rockies come off a fantastic 9-1 homestand, but let’s simmer it down a bit. They did face the Orioles and Blue Jays for six of those games. And sure, the four-game sweep of the D-Backs was impressive, even though three of the wins came by one run.

I think they get a good dose of reality tonight at Wrigley Field, where the Cubs really need to get rolling. Not to mention, there’s a little bit of revenge factor here as the Rockies defeated the Cubs in the Wild Card game last season.

We know who Jeff Hoffman is. The righty’s abysmal numbers in three starts this season are right on par with what he’s done over his career. While Hoffman has been much better away from Coors Field, the conditions in Chicago will make it feel somewhat similar, as the winds will be blowing out to left-center field at about 10-12 mph tonight.

On the other hand, Kyle Hendricks is well-equipped to deal with these friendly hitting conditions. I’ve said it before, and I’ll continue to say it, but Hendricks is a homeless man’s Greg Maddux. The veteran righty hits his spots and it has been incredible to see him get more strikeouts than ever. While the Rockies’ numbers are a bit inflated from their recent homestand, they do tend to have their fair share of swings and misses.

Given the higher total than usual for Wrigley Field, the Cubs have the highest moneyline increase (-180 to -225) of the night and +0.4 IRT increase, let’s fly the W flag – on the 1.5-run line here as well.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 8 – Colorado Rockies: 3 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 2

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

[8:00 p.m. EST] NBA Finals – Game 2:
Under 213 (-110) – Golden State Warriors (ML: +112) at Toronto Raptors

Everyone was surprised by the outcome of Game 1, when the Raptors came out and dominated a rusty Warriors squad. It’s interesting to see nearly the same spread in consecutive games, but I’m calling Vegas’s bluff here.

I feel like too many people have already forgotten just how amazing this Warriors team is. They did a fantastic job on Kawhi Leonard, forcing him to give up the ball at nearly every turn. Expect Golden State to continue doing that, while Draymond Green turns up the intensity on Pascal Siakam. As Dray said after Game 1, he has to do a better job of making life difficult on Siakam – and he probably will.

The Warriors didn’t give Stephen Curry too much help in the series opener but expect that to change tonight. Hopefully, the refs let Klay Thompson get away with more of those “seven steps to the hole” moves. Not that they’ll need it though…

SK’s Trend Confidence rating also likes the under in tonight’s game. It makes sense, considering the game total has dropped two points and the Warriors defense should be much better.

* Final Score Prediction: Golden State Warriors: 103 – Toronto Raptors: 99 *

* 2019 MLB Record: 91-72-4 (55.8%) *

[2:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-116) – Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
CLE: Zach Plesac – R (0-0, 1.69 ERA/0.94 WHIP)
CHW: Lucas Giolito – R (7-1, 2.85 ERA/0.98 WHIP)

Lucas Giolito has been outstanding for the White Sox this season, with a sub-1.00 WHIP and 69 strikeouts over 60 innings. It’s been so good for Giolito, that he’s allowed one run or fewer in each of his last five starts – all White Sox wins. Not only that, but Chicago has outscored its competition by a combined score of 19-5 over that span.

That goes to show you how few runs are being scored in some of these White Sox games. In fact, the total has gone under in 18 of the team’s last 25 games. We can also thank their bullpen, who has the fifth-best xFIP (3.72) in MLB over the last seven days.

Zach Plesac did a great job in his MLB debut last time out, allowing one run over 5 1/3 innings to a talented Red Sox lineup. Chicago’s offense has struggled mightily of late against right-handed pitching with .295 wOBA and .113 ISO numbers over the last 14 days. It probably won’t help the White Sox, considering they’ve never seen Plesac before and have limited footage on him. The Indians haven’t necessarily been pounding the ball either and got skilled by Giolito back on May 7 which ended up being a 2-0 White Sox win.

I’m looking for another low-scoring affair like there’s been in each of the last two games in this series. After all, the under has one of the highest SK Trend Confidence ratings (B+) of the day with this game

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 3 – Cleveland Indians: 2 *

[3:10 p.m. EST] Over 12.5 (-106) Toronto Blue Jays (ML: +124) at Colorado Rockies
TOR: Aaron Sanchez – R (3-5, 3.75 ERA/1.52 WHIP)
COL: Antonio Senzatela (3-4, 5.81 ERA/1.65 WHIP)

Vegas has spoken loudly by increasing the total by an entire run on this game, with both IRTs increasing as well: Blue Jays: +0.8, Rockies: +0.3. Just like the IRT increase, Toronto’s moneyline jump (+147 to +124) is the highest for any team on the slate.

The real key to the over today is Rockies’ pitcher Antonio Senzatela, who has a 6.17 ERA and .304 opposing batting average at Coors Field this season. Not only that, but Senzatela has been seen very well by opposing hitters in any setting of late, allowing 18 hits and five walks over his last 9 1/3 innings of work.

Aaron Sanchez will give it a go for the Blue Jays, and he’s been dealing with some finger issues of late. You have to wonder how far Sanchez will be pushed in this game, considering he has thrown 64 pitches or fewer in three of the last four starts. That’d be great news for the Rockies, as the Blue Jays’ bullpen has the sixth-highest WHIP (1.62) in MLB over the last seven days.

The Rockies have been excellent, going 8-1 on this current 10-game homestand, but it’s time for them to drop one to this pesky Blue Jays bunch. Those IRT and moneyline increases for Toronto are just way too telling here.

Toronto games have gone over the total in eight of the last 12, with two of those misnomers being pushes. Colorado games have gone over in seven of the last 11. It also helps that the wind will be blowing out at about 10 mph to left field.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 10 – Colorado Rockies: 7 *

[7:00 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-116) – Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
BOS: David Price – L (2-2, 2.83 ERA/1.03 WHIP)
NYY: C.C. Sabathia – L (3-1, 3.48 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

Hey, if you don’t like NBA Finals basketball… what the hell is wrong with you? Or, if you got two TVs or will find yourself at the local watering hole, ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball is a fantastic game to bet the over on tonight.

The Yankees absolutely own David Price, but luckily, he won’t have to deal with Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton. Unfortunately, Gary Sanchez and Luke Voit are still around and that’ll never be good news for David Price. Lifetime, Sanchez is 6-for-13 with five homers against him, while Voit is 3-for-5 with two homers.

Even though some of these younger Yanks don’t have a ton of experience against Price, rest assured that those vets will relay their knowledge down to them.

On the other side, old age might finally be catching up to CC Sabathia. The veteran lefty has now allowed 11 homers in his last 31 1/3 innings of work. While CC has historically pitched well against the Red Sox, this current version of him is certainly not in peak form.

This ballpark plays well for power hitters, so expect there to be quite a few long balls tonight. I’m not necessarily loving one side over the other, but definitely over the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – New York Yankees: 6 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, May 26

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 78-59-4 *

[2:15 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 (-118) – New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals
NYY: Domingo German – R (9-1, 2.60 ERA/0.98 WHIP)
KC: Danny Duffy – L (3-1, 3.45 ERA/

Domingo German has been just what the Yankees needed this season, given all their injuries. It is interesting, though, that this KC team is the only one to hand him a loss this season. German still pitched well in that game, allowing three runs over six innings, but I would look for him to have added motivation in this matchup.

Danny Duffy has been much better since the start of May, with a 3-0 record and 3.04 ERA in four starts. It’s crazy, but Duffy has actually been much better against right-handed batters this season, allowing an opposing batting average of .229 and .690 OPS.

Given the recent performances of both starters and the talented Yankees’ bullpen, I’m going with the under in this game. Ultimately, that should be the difference in the game as well.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 4 – Kansas City Royals: 3 *

[2:20 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-110) – Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
CIN: Tanner Roark – R (3-3, 3.51 ERA/1.42 WHIP)
CHC: Jose Quintana – L (4-3, 3.30 ERA/1.22 WHIP)

After two games with double-digit run totals, Vegas placed a 7.5-total on this game featuring two crafty veteran pitchers. The weather won’t be inducive to offense, as the temps will be in the upper-50s with the wind blowing in at about 10 mph. Also, the opening total dropped from 8.0 to 7.5, with the team’s IRT subsequently dropping as well – Reds: -0.3, Cubs: -0.2.

Given the microscopic run total, I’m banking on Jose Quintana to have a huge start today. Cincy’s offense has been struggling mightily against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days, with a .198 wOBA and .087 ISO. Quintana has been legit over his last eight starts, not allowing more than three runs in any of those starts.

In Quintana’s last three starts, the game total has only maxed out at seven.

On the other side, Tanner Roark has been solid in the month of May with an ERA just under 3.00. What is particularly appealing about Roark is the fact that he’s only allowed two homers in 51 1/3 innings of work this season.

I’m trusting the numbers from Vegas and the SK Trend Confidence rating, which is the highest on the slate, for this total going under.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 4 – Cincinnati Reds: 2 *

[3:00 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockies (1.5-run line: -152)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-6, 6.75 ERA/1.41 WHIP)
COL: German Marquez – R (5-2, 3.38 ERA/1.11 WHIP)

Sometimes the numbers speak to you… and sometimes they scream right in your face. The Rockies have a 7.9 IRT today, and that’s a +0.6 increase from the initial number, which was at 7.3. That current number is clearly the highest IRT of the MLB season. Colorado also had a moneyline increase from -262 to -316, the largest on the slate.

There’s a good reason for that zaftig IRT, as the Orioles have allowed 113 homers – 20 more than any other team in MLB. Baltimore’s starter David Hess has been ripped consistently, allowing nine homers in his last 15 innings of work. Not to mention, Hess has a K-prop of 4.0, with the juice on the under at -150 – that’s basically saying he won’t last long today.

You very well could take the over (11.5, -118) in this game, considering Rockies’ starter German Marquez has allowed at least seven hits in five of his last seven starts. Marquez did have his best outing of the season last time out against the Pirates, but that was at PNC Park.

At Coors Field this season, Marquez does have a 5.34 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in five starts and Baltimore hasn’t necessarily been terrible with the bats. Over the last 14 days, the Orioles have a .350 wOBA and .225 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Although it’s more money to lay, I do have more faith in the Rockies totally thrashing the Orioles today. Let’s take Colorado on the 1.5-run line.

* Final Score Prediction: Colorado Rockies: 9 – Baltimore Orioles: 3 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, May 18

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 68-43-4 (61.3%) *

[4:05 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies (1.5-run line: +114)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (3-2, 5.35 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (3-0, 4.86 ERA/1.55 WHIP)

The Phillies have the highest IRT (+0.7) and second-highest moneyline (-155 to -176) increases on the day. And that’s a good sign, considering Aaron Nola is on the hill for Philly. Aside from a rough outing against the powerful Brewers, Nola held opposing teams to one run in each of his previous three starts.

Meanwhile, these Rockies are striking out at a 31.8% clip over the last seven days, which is the second-highest in all of baseball. Now that the weather is starting to get a little warmer in Philly, we should see Nola get a better grip on the baseball, thus giving him more movement on those breaking pitches.

Antonio Senzatela has been much better on the road (3.31 ERA) than at home (7.27 ERA) this season, but Vegas has already spoken with the increases for the Phillies today. I have a feeling Rhys Hoskins is about to break out of his recent skid, as Senzatela has allowed more extra-base hits to right-handed hitters. Not to mention, Philly has quite a few righties that can do the same with Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, JT Realmuto and Maikel Franco.

Ultimately, I don’t mind the over in this game, considering the bullpens for both sides rank in the bottom third of MLB over the last seven days, but Philly on the 1.5-run line is where I’m planting my flag.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 7 – Colorado Rockies: 3 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 (-122) – Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians
BAL: John Means – L (5-3, 2.33 ERA/1.03 WHIP)
CLE: Adam Plutko – R (season debut)

Progressive Field is one of the few stadiums in baseball that has to deal with these pesky shadows for mid-day games. That’s bad news for an Indians team that already has the fourth-highest K-rate (28.1%) against left-handed pitching.

Hopefully, those shadows help Adam Plutko, who will be making his season debut after pitching down in Triple-A. He did make 17 appearances (12 starts) last season, going 4-5 with a 5.28 ERA, but did pitch well against this Baltimore team during that stretch.

All in all, the background conditions should be able to give a nice boost to both pitchers today early on, and that should hold off the double-digit total for long enough. The SK Trend Confidence rating also likes this game as one of its top plays today.

* Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles: 4 – Cleveland Indians: 3 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels (1.5-run line: +106)
KC: Jakob Junis – R (3-4, 5.77 ERA/1.55 WHIP)
LAA: Griffin Canning – R (1-1, 5.65 ERA/1.33 WHIP)

A lot of people that I trust are big on this Griffin Canning kid, and I can pick up what they’re putting down. Despite losing at hitter-friendly Camden Yards in his last outing, Canning has posted at least six strikeouts in all three of his starts this season. The Royals’ offense has been quite stagnant of late, with only four runs over the last three games. Prior to yesterday’s two-run output, KC posted one run or fewer in four of five games.

Jakob Junis has not been good this season, allowing at least eight baserunners in seven of his last eight starts. That’s not good news for an Angels team that has a massive .401 wOBA and .219 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Just as we did yesterday, we’re going with the Angels big here.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 8 – Kansas City Royals: 3 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 7

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 46-33-3 (58.4%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (-1.5, -130) at Baltimore Orioles
BOS: Hector Rodriguez – R (0-2, 3.72 ERA)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-4, 5.34 ERA)

The defending champs had themselves a big dip in production for the series opener last night. After scoring a total of 55 runs in the previous seven games, the Red Sox managed to put up only one run against a talented young lefty in John Means on Monday night. Don’t expect that slump to last too long for Boston, especially with David Hess going for Baltimore. In fact, the current Red Sox roster has a combined .317 batting average, 1.088 OPS and six homers in 66 career plate appearances against Hess.

Boston will be going with a bullpen-by-committee game and that has been a productive unit of late, with the fifth-best SIERA (skill-interactive earned run average) and seventh-best xFIP (expected fielding-independent pitching) in baseball over the last seven days. The Orioles’ offense hasn’t been great as usual, scoring three runs or fewer in six of the last nine games.

I’m looking for the Red Sox to put one of their patented poundings on the Orioles at Camden Yards, just as they have done so many times in the past. The SK Trend Confidence has the Red Sox on the 1.5 run-line as one of its favorite plays of the night.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 9 – Baltimore Orioles: 3 *

[7:40 p.m. EST] Under 8 (-108) – Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (3-1, 3.45 ERA)
MIL: Adrian Houser – R (0-1, 8.44 ERA)

We’re seeing a lot of unders come out in recent Brewers and Nationals games of late. In fact, Brew Crew games have gone under the total in six of the last nine, while the Nats have suffered that fate in five of the last seven.

I’m banking on the Washington side of things to carry us to victory tonight, with Stephen Strasburg’s recent performances and the number of injuries piling up in the Nationals lineup. Strasburg has a 0.78 WHIP, 29 strikeouts and only three runs allowed over his last 21 2/3 innings of work and the current Brewers lineup owns a .197 lifetime batting average against him. Meanwhile, a Nats lineup that is missing Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Trea Turner and Ryan Zimmermann has now scored three runs or fewer in nine of the last 11 games.

It may not look great on the surface for the Brewers with Adrian Houser starting on the mound, but that’s just for show. Milwaukee will be going the “opener” route, opting to use the struggling Freddy Peralta at another point during the game. If needed, I’m sure Bernie the Brewer could pitch effectively tonight against this struggling Nats offense.

All in all, Strasburg should be the one dictating the low-scoring game with another dominant outing. Look for the Brewers and their combination of pitchers to get the job done as well. The SK Trend Confidence rating has the under and the Brewers moneyline as two of its favorite plays of the night.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 3 – Washington Nationals: 2 *

[8:00 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 (-110) – Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (3-0, 2.00 ERA)
CHC: Jon Lester – L (2-1, 1.73 ERA)

It’s going to be a frigid one at Wrigley Field tonight, with temperatures in the mid-40s and the wind blowing in from left-center field at 12 mph, as two talented southpaws take the mound.

Caleb Smith has quietly been putting together an All-Star-level start to the season with a 3-0 record, 2.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 45 strikeouts over 36 innings. In fact, Smith has qualified for a quality start in each of his last five outings.

Jon Lester has been simply magnificent this season, allowing two runs or fewer in all five starts – one being cut short due to a hamstring injury. Nonetheless, Lester had his best start of the season in his last outing, 35 miles away from where he grew up, tossing seven innings of one-hit shutout ball while striking out eight Mariners in Seattle. Also, the Marlins offense ranks in the bottom five of most advanced metrics overall and against left-handed pitching.

The 6.5-total, weather and an excellent duo of starting pitchers lend itself to plenty of pessimism for runs going up on the scoreboard tonight. Should be a fun game to watch, though. You know, if you hate offense.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 2 – Miami Marlins: 1 *

[8:40 p.m. EST] Under 10.5 (-120) – San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
SF: Madison Bumgarner – L (1-4, 3.92 ERA)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (2-1, 4.03 ERA)

It’s always a risky proposition to take the under at Coors Field but we’re trusting the SK Trend Confidence rating on this game, which has one of the highest grades for both teams here. And it’s interesting, considering both teams have posted a ton of overs lately – the Giants in eight of the last 10 and Rockies in nine of the last 11.

Madison Bumgarner takes the mound for San Francisco, and while his 1-4 record doesn’t look great, he does have a 1.10 WHIP and solid numbers against Colorado. In fact, MadBum posted his only win of the season against the Rockies back on April 13.

Antonio Senzatela has allowed three runs or fewer in three of his four starts this season. Even better news is that Senzatela is 5-0 with a 3.36 ERA in eight appearances (six starts) against the Giants since 2016.

We might be cutting it close here on the total, but we’re placing a ton of faith in the system this evening – and you should too.

* Final Score Prediction: Colorado Rockies: 5 – San Francisco Giants: 4 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, May 3

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 40-29-2 (58%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5, -146) at Baltimore Orioles
TB: Tyler Glasnow – R (5-0, 1.75 ERA)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-2, 6.75 ERA)

We’ve got ourselves a good ole fashioned mismatch. Tyler Glasnow of the Rays has been virtually unhittable this season, with a microscopic 0.94 WHIP and allowing two runs or fewer in each of his six starts. Glasnow got the win against these same Orioles a little more than two weeks ago, allowing seven hits and two runs while striking out three over seven innings.

The Orioles are 3-9 over their last 12 games, with all of those wins coming against the White Sox. Dan Straily takes the hill at home for Baltimore and it has not been pretty for him this season, despite pitching a limited amount of innings. A 1.66 WHIP is what Straily has coughed up over 18 2/3 innings of work (five appearances/four starts), and it doesn’t help either that the Orioles’ bullpen has the worst ERA (6.27) in all of baseball.

Tampa’s offense gets a major park upgrade going into Camden Yards and did score 17 runs at home against Baltimore in its three-game series in mid-April. It’s quite intriguing to see the Rays have the highest IRT (5.8) of any team on tonight’s slate, so look for the Rays to continue putting the hurt on Orioles’ pitching in this matchup.

Although it’s a massive amount (-146) to lay on the 1.5-run line, I feel like Vegas is already telling us how big of an ass kicking this is going to be. I have enough confidence in the Rays to win by multiple runs and not be forced to lay -230 on the moneyline. Not to mention, Tampa’s moneyline increase from -190 to -230 is the highest on the entire slate.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 8 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5, +118)
WSH: Jeremy Hellickson – R (2-0, 5.82 ERA)
PHI: Jerad Eickhoff – R (1-1, 2.12 ERA)

These injuries are starting to take a toll on the Nationals’ offense, which has scored three runs or less in six of their last seven games. Yesterday, they had a golden opportunity to put a world of hurt on a weak pitcher, Dakota Hudson of the Cardinals, and looked like a bunch of damn fools in the process – granted, they got the win (which I called), but it was not pretty. Already missing Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon, Washington was without Juan Soto yesterday for the second game in a row, and there’s no word yet on whether he’ll be in Friday’s lineup.

If Washington couldn’t lay into Hudson, tonight will seem even more difficult against Philly’s Jerad Eickhoff, who has been great since returning from injuries which caused him to miss nearly all of 2018. At Citizens Bank Park this season (vs. MIA, vs. NYM), Eickhoff has allowed only five hits, one walk and no runs while striking out 12 over 11 innings. With or without Soto, I can certainly see the Nationals struggling in any regard against the underrated righty.

One thing I really like about the Phils tonight is their leadoff hitter, Andrew McCutchen. In 19 career plate appearance against Hellickson, McCutchen is 4-for-12 with seven walks – that means he is very comfortable in the batter’s box against him. If McCutchen is getting on base, you can expect the rest of the order to follow suit. The Nationals’ bullpen also has a 5.87 ERA, which ranks second-worst in all of baseball.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 6 – Washington Nationals: 3 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers (-1.5, +120)
TOR: Trent Thornton – R (0-3, 5.08 ERA)
TEX: Mike Minor – L (3-2, 2.88 ERA)

Mike Minor has a 0.91 WHIP and is holding opposing batters to a .179 batting average. Not a good sign for the Blue Jays, who have the fourth-worst power metrics (ISO: .112) and seventh-worst weighted on-base average (wOBA: .287) against left-handed pitching this season. Minor is coming off a dazzling 13-strikeout performance over seven innings in Seattle and, in his last two home starts (vs. HOU, vs. LAA), has only allowed a combined eight hits, four walks and no runs while striking out 14 over 16 innings. Not to mention, Toronto played a very late game in Anaheim last night and will actually lose two hours of sleep time crossing two time zones into Arlington today.

Before his last outing, the Blue Jays had lost five straight games that Trent Thornton started. Tonight, he’ll have the displeasure of facing a Rangers team that is averaging 6.3 runs per game at home this season – tops in MLB.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 7 – Toronto Blue Jays: 2 *

[8:40 p.m. EST] Over 11 – Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
ARZ: Robbie Ray – L (1-1, 4.18 ERA)
COL: Tyler Anderson – L (0-2, 11.34 ERA)

The Rockies’ offense is clicking like no other at the moment, hanging 11 runs in back-to-back days at Milwaukee. In fact, Colorado has now scored at least seven runs in six of its last eight games. That’s great news for us bettors on the over, getting a hot offense against a pitcher they have clobbered historically. Robbie Ray has only won twice in 10 starts against the Rockies since 2016, and he allowed at least four runs in each of those outings. That’s actually a soft intro because Colorado has posted four runs or more in five of his last seven starts against them. The Rockies’ current roster has a combined .353 batting average, 1.095 OPS and 11 home runs in 153 plate appearances against Ray.

If that wasn’t enough, Tyler Anderson and his 11.34 ERA/2.16 WHIP take the mound for the Rockies this evening. All four of his starts have resulted in the game total reaching double-digits and, in two starts (vs. LAD, vs. WSH) at Coors Field this season, Anderson has allowed a combined 13 hits, six walks and 11 runs over seven innings.

I normally don’t condone grown men wearing baseball gloves to games, but if you’re sitting in the Coors Field outfield tonight, this might be the lone exception.

* Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks: 9 – Colorado Rockies: 8 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, April 11 (Night Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[7:20 p.m. EST] Over 9 –  New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
NYM: Steven Matz – L (0-0, 0.87 ERA)
ATL: Kevin Gausman – R (1-0, 0.00 ERA)

Nine of the 11 Mets’ games have reached the over this season, and a big part of that is the ineffectiveness of their bullpen, which ranks fifth-worst in MLB with a 6.51 ERA. That’s not a great sign for a team heading into one of the best hitting parks in the Majors and the wind is blowing out to left field at 12 mph. Both teams have seen its IRT rise (Mets: +0.3, Braves: +0.2) and have the second- and third-highest increase on the night slate.

Although Matz has gotten off to a great start this season and owns a great history against the Braves (4-0, 2.75 in seven career starts), most of that success wasn’t against this current group of guys. These ATL bats are in a great position, with Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson have been red-hot while Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr. are also producing nicely.

Gausman had a nice outing to start the season, but we should remember that it came against a very weak Marlins team. The Mets have been swinging it well, specifically Michael Conforto and Peter Alonso – we can even throw in J.D. Davis and Jeff McNeil if we wanted to. Robbie Cano also has a .400 lifetime average against Gausman. Not to mention, the Braves’ bullpen ranks ninth-worst in MLB with a 5.54 ERA.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 7 – New York Mets: 6 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
PIT: Joe Musgrove – R (1-0, 0.00 ERA)
CHC: Jose Quintana – L (0-1, 10.29 ERA)

The initial 10.5 total on this game has dropped down to nine, which is quite significant. So, it’s no surprise that both teams (Cubs: -0.9, Pirates: -0.7) have the largest Implied Run Total (IRT) decreases on the entire slate.

Musgrove has yet to allow a run in two appearances (one start, one relief), allowing only three hits and one walk over nine innings while striking out nine batters. Plus, the current Cubs roster only has a career .183 batting average against Musgrove. Given his current string on success in the present day, the Cubs will likely struggle a great deal on offense. Not to mention, Musgrove is 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA in three career starts against the Cubs.

On the other side, Quintana will be looking to rebound from a horrific start against the Brewers. It helps today’s under on the total that he is 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA in five career starts against the Pirates. Ultimately, though, the Cubs’ bullpen has struggled plenty, owning MLB’s sixth-worst ERA (6.34) this season.

* Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates: 4 – Chicago Cubs: 3 *

 [9:45 p.m. EST] Under 7 – Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
COL: Jon Gray – R (0-2, 5.68 ERA)
SF: Jeff Samardzija – R (0-0, 2.79 ERA)

I might be one of the few people out there that thinks Samardzija is a decent pitcher, but I will only take the chance of using him for money (betting or DFS) when pitching at Oracle Park, one of the league’s worst parks for hitting. Samardzija doesn’t have great overall numbers against the Rockies, but when the games haven’t been at Coors Field, he has a 3.02 ERA in those matchups. While he does have decent numbers this season, the former Notre Dame wideout hasn’t been going too deep into games. But that’s ok, considering the Giants’ bullpen ranks fourth in MLB with a 2.63 ERA.

Gray goes for the Rockies, and he’ll be salivating over this matchup against a Giants team that has a collective batting average of .206 and the league’s fourth-fewest amount of runs scored. In his last start, Gray ran into the scorching-hot Dodgers’ offense at Coors Field, so I won’t take that outing too deeply into thought. Look for him to rebound with a nice outing tonight against a bad San Fran offense.

All in all, I just don’t like the way either team is playing right now. I’ll give the edge to the Giants being at home and having the better bullpen, but I don’t think we’ll see a ton of runs in any event.

* Final Score Prediction: San Francisco Giants: 3 – Colorado Rockies: 2 *

MLB Betting Preview for Friday, April 5 (Afternoon Games)

[2:10 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners (-130) at Chicago White Sox – Total: 8
SEA: Yusei Kikuchi – L (0-0, 2.53 ERA)
CHW: Reynaldo Lopez – R (0-1, 9.00 ERA)

The Seattle Mariners and Chicago White Sox are two teams heading in opposite directions to start the 2019 campaign. Seattle has been absolutely raking, scoring 56 runs over the first eight games this season. On the other hand, Chicago cannot seem to get out of its own way, committing eight errors over the first five games.

To me, this one is simple, as the Mariners and their offensive ways should be able to put plenty of pressure on the White Sox defense and continue their suffering. Not to mention, Mariners’ starter Yusei Kikuchi is legit, and there’s not much tape on him. Expect the White Sox offense to struggle quite a bit seeing him for the first time in regular season action.

Seattle moneyline is the play here…

* Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners: 9 – Chicago White Sox: 3

[4:10 p.m. EST] Los Angeles Dodgers (-129) at Colorado Rockies – Total: 10.5
LAD: Kenta Maeda – R (1-0, 4.05 ERA)
COL: Tyler Anderson – L (0-1, 9.00 ERA)

Speaking of offenses that are clicking, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been rockin’ and rolling with 55 runs scored through the first seven games – unsurprisingly, Dodgers’ games have gone over the total in six of those seven. Justin Turner is 13-for-28 with four extra-base hits (1 HR) against today’s Colorado Rockies’ starter Tyler Anderson, so hopefully, his scouting report will give an upper-hand advantage to the rest of his Dodgers’ teammates — not that they really need it nowadays.

After posting six runs in each of their first two games, the Rockies have only scored five runs in their last five. We can attribute that to some very solid pitching performances from the opposition and possibly being out of that Rocky Mountain environment for too long. Well, now the Rockies are heading back to the high altitude where the team is much more comfortable. If Colorado can get Kenta Maeda out of the game early, its offense can take advantage of a Dodgers bullpen that has not been great early on, allowing the fourth-most runs in MLB so far this season.

Typically, offenses don’t bode well at Coors Field in the first month of the season, but today’s environment should play more like a game in May or June. Temperatures are expected to be damn-near perfect in the upper 60s for baseball today in Denver.

Over 10.5 is the play here, with the Dodgers swinging hot bats and the Rockies coming back to Denver for some home cooking on the offensive end…

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 8 – Colorado Rockies: 7

[4:15 p.m. EST] San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals – Total: 7.5
SD: Nick Margevicius (0-1, 1.80 ERA)
STL: Jack Flaherty – R (0-0. 8.31 ERA)

St. Louis Cardinals’ starter Jack Flaherty has a very bright future ahead of him, but proving that in the season debut was a lot tougher against a potent Milwaukee Brewers lineup. Today, he’ll go head-to-head with San Diego Padres’ little-known rookie Nick Margevicius, who had an impressive debut, albeit, against a weak San Francisco Giants’ lineup. It’s too early to pinpoint the outlook on Margevicius, considering he has only made two starts above the Single-A level – one in Double-A, one in MLB – but it is worth noting that his control has been quite magnificent early on in his minor-league career.

With all that being said, the moment of the Cards’ home opener at Busch Stadium could prove to be too much for the young lefty. Not only that, but Flaherty should improve greatly from his season debut and have a great performance against a Padres’ lineup that hasn’t been that impressive on offense.

Cardinals on the moneyline is the play here…

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 5 – San Diego Padres: 2

[4:35 p.m. EST] Tampa Bay Rays at San Francisco Giants – Total: 7
TB: Tyler Glasnow – R (1-0, 1.80 ERA)
SF: Dereck Rodriguez – R (1-0, 3.60 ERA)

This is an excellent matchup of young hurlers taking place at Oracle Park today, between Tyler Glasnow of the Tampa Bay Rays and Dereck Rodriguez of the San Francisco Giants. Not only that, but neither team’s offense has really gotten off to a great start either.

It may be simple, and it may be short, but there is just one trend in this game that you can’t ignore. Especially, when the game is being played in San Francisco – a place where offense go to die.

That trend, you were asking for? All seven of the Rays’ games have gone under the total, while five of the seven Giants’ games have suffered the same fate.

Under seven runs is the play here, and I’ll give the Giants the win in their home opener. What a nice guy I am…

* Final Score Prediction: San Francisco Giants: 4 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2