Tag: Detroit Tigers

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, July 19

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 146-119-6 (55.1%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 11.5 – Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees
COL: Kyle Freeland – L (2-6, 7.39 ERA/1.61 WHIP)
NYY: J.A. Happ – L (7-5, 4.93 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

The Yankees’ 7.0 IRT (implied run total) is tops on tonight’s slate, and both teams were actually given a +0.3 increase, which usually means good things for the offense. Not to mention, the humid temperatures in New York tonight will give it a feel of 100 degrees – then again, it really will be hot. These hot temperatures are excellent for ball flight, and we should definitely see plenty of homers in this game.

Kyle Freeland is having a disastrous 2019 and things have gotten progressively worse as the season has gone along. The lefty has allowed at least five runs in six of his last eight starts, including each of the last three.

In the series prior to this one, the Yankees had battled hard with a tough Rays team. Now, facing the Rockies, things should open up a lot more in terms of the scoring. After all, Colorado has allowed at least eight runs in five of its last six games.

J.A. Happ has been much worse at home this season, posting a 5.98 ERA and opposing batting average of .294 in 10 starts. In comparison, the lefty has a 3.77 ERA and opposing batting average of .224 on the road. Part of the reason for this problem is that Happ is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and that certainly doesn’t play well in such a small ballpark like Yankee Stadium – especially with the weather conditions we’ll see tonight.

While the Rockies were stymied by Giants pitching before heading to New York, it should do them some good to get out on the road. Typically, when teams are in a big funk, it’s always good to get a change of scenery to shake things up. Look for some of these big boppers like Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story to have a big night in The Bronx.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Yankees: 10 – Colorado Rockies: 6

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 10 – Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers
TOR: Marcus Stroman – R (5-10, 3.25 ERA/1.27 WHIP)
DET: Jordan Zimmermann – R (0-6, 7.01 ERA/1.59 WHIP)

Marcus Stroman doesn’t like Canada. OK, maybe that’s a little strong, but his 2.98 ERA on the road this season certainly paints a nice picture for the Blue Jays. Not to mention, he did skill the Tigers for seven innings of shutout ball while allowing only two hits earlier this season. Overall, the current Detroit roster is hitting a combined .140 with a .222 on-base percentage in 63 career plate appearances against Stroman.

The Tigers’ offense ranks dead-last in MLB for weighted on-base average (.284) against right-handed pitching this season. Not to mention, they have only scored five runs over the last three games. We can add almost any stat in the book here to show how bad Detroit has been offensively, but it has gone through enough woes this season already.

Jordan Zimmermann has certainly struggled this season, but his best performance of the season did come against the Blue Jays. The veteran righty allowed one hit, no walks and no runs over seven innings back on March 28. Given Zimmermann’s struggles of late, I’m not expecting a performance like that one, but one that keeps the total down on this game.

The Blue Jays have played a very difficult schedule since the All-Star break, with road matchups against the Yankees and Red Sox, but have certainly held their own. Now that they get to play a lesser opponent like the Tigers, they should have a much easier time and get the win in the process.

According to the SpreadKnowledge system, the total going under is our strongest play on the entire slate. After all, all four of the meetings between the teams earlier this season saw the total go under. We’ve also got plenty of love for the Blue Jays with Stroman in a road start.

* Final Score Prediction * Toronto Blue Jays: 6 – Detroit Tigers: 1

[10:10 p.m. EST] Over 10 – Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
LAA: Jaime Barria – R (3-2, 5.22 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
SEA: Mike Leake – R (7-8, 4.60 ERA/1.31 WHIP)

There are certain matchups you see sometimes that make you go “Oh… my… goodness!!!” The Angels facing Mike Leake is certainly one of them, and that’s part of the reason the SpreadKnowledge system has the total going over as one of our strongest plays on the night.

Nine of the 14 meetings between the two teams this season have done just that.

The current Angels roster is hitting a combined .368 off Leake with a .413 on-base percentage and 1.019 OPS in 281 plate appearances. In three starts against Los Angeles this season, Leake has allowed 19 hits, 13 runs (10 earned) and six homers over 13 2/3 innings. When the two teams faced last Friday night, the Angels tagged him for eight hits and seven runs (four earned) before the first inning was over.

It’s unclear whether Jaime Barria will start the game or come in shortly after a reliever pitches the first innings. He has started the game in each of his last two outings for the Angels, but it’s a been a mixed bag overall in how the righty has been used this season. Nonetheless, I’ve never been a big fan of Barria, and he’s certainly capable of getting lit up tonight. Barria’s 10.03 ERA and 2.14 WHIP on the road this season do bode well for us getting over the 10-run total tonight, though.

The Mariners have been struggling as a team, but they did have an off-day yesterday and that could give them a nice recharging of the batteries. I don’t think anything will help their pitching at this point, but this offense still has some decent pieces looking to make a name for themselves before the trade deadline.

All in all, the Angels are in a good place offensively and absolutely crushed Mariners pitching in all three games last weekend. Look for them to do more of that against a pitcher they’ve seen well over the course of time. Barria could certainly contribute some effectiveness to the over here as well.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Angels: 8 – Seattle Mariners: 6

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, July 16

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 140-113-6 (55.3%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (1.5-run line: -134)
DET: Ryan Carpenter – L (1-5, 8.36 ERA/1.75 WHIP)
CLE: Zach Plesac – R (3-3, 4.00 ERA/1.18 WHIP)

It has been a rough go of things for the Tigers against the Indians, losing nine of the 10 meetings this season, including each of the last eight. In fact, Cleveland has outscored Detroit by a total of 63-27 in those contests. Tonight’s -260 moneyline number for the Indians matches their highest of the season, so I feel comfortable taking the 1.5-run line here and saving some money to lay.

Things won’t get any better for the Tigers tonight as they send Ryan Carpenter out to the hill. The lefty has a 7.95 ERA/1.73 WHIP in 14 career MLB appearances, including a 12.38 ERA/2.50 WHIP in two starts against the Indians. Carpenter has allowed at least seven hits in six of his eight starts, and that’ll be a dangerous proposition to do such a thing against such a talented lineup.

Since the beginning of July, Cleveland has posted seven runs or more five times, with all of those big totals coming against lesser-talented teams – just like the one it’ll see tonight. Detroit’s bullpen owns the fifth-worst ERA (5.01) in baseball and the team, as a whole, has allowed exactly eight runs in three of its four games since the All-Star break.

On the other side, Zach Plesac has been excellent to start his MLB career, allowing two runs or fewer in five of his first eight starts. The rookie right-hander had a great outing against the Tigers back on June 23, allowing five hits, one walk and one run, while inducing a season-high 10 ground-ball outs over seven innings en route to an 8-3 Indians’ victory.

The Tigers’ offense has been struggling all season, but especially against right-handed pitching, as they own the second-worst wOBA (.286) in baseball in that split – just a fraction above the MLB-worst Marlins.

* Final Score Prediction * Cleveland Indians: 8 – Detroit Tigers: 2

[8:15 p.m. EST] Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (ML: -175)
PIT: Dario Agrazal – R (2-0, 2.81 ERA/1.31 WHIP)
STL: Jack Flaherty – R (4-6, 4.64 ERA/1.23 WHIP)

We’ve had glimpses of Jack Flaherty displaying the type of dominance he’s capable of, but he hasn’t done it consistently. If that last outing before the break – allowing two hits, one walk and one run over seven innings – against a red-hot Giants lineup is any indication of where Flaherty is heading, we’re in for a treat tonight.

Not only has Flaherty pitched better at home this season, but he’s also done well against the Pirates lifetime. The righty has a 3-1 record to go along with a 2.48 ERA/1.00 WHIP in five career starts.

The Pirates have lost four straight since the All-Star break, while the Cardinals have won their last three games. Not to mention, Pittsburgh has only scored a total of 10 runs in those four games.

Dario Agrazal has been great for the Pirates since making his debut on June 15. However, he’s shown a huge weakness early on, allowing right-handed batters to hit for .353 average, compared to lefties hitting .148. The Cardinals lineup will have plenty of right-handed power coming at Agrazal tonight, so look for the rookie to take the first loss of his career.

All in all, we’ve got two teams heading in opposite directions. We like the Cardinals to continue their winning ways over a struggling Pirates team. Vegas did give the Cardinals a nice +0.4 IRT (implied run total) increase, which is actually the highest for any team on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction * St. Louis Cardinals: 6 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2

[8:15 p.m. EST] Under 10.5 – Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
CHW: Dylan Cease – R (1-0, 5.40 ERA/1.60 WHIP)
KC: Glenn Sparkman – R (2-5, 5.18 ERA/1.40 WHIP)

Whenever the Royals and White Sox have gotten together this season, runs have not been showing up on the scoreboard. In fact, nine of the 12 meetings between the teams have gone under the total – just as it did last night. We’re looking for more of the same tonight, as the SpreadKnowledge system has the total going under in this game as the top-rated play on the entire slate.

Glenn Sparkman may not be the greatest pitcher in baseball, but he certainly knows what he’s doing at Kauffman Stadium. The righty has a 2-2 record to go along with a 2.19 ERA/1.11 WHIP in nine appearances there this season. Sparkman’s last three outings at home have been against quality opponents (Twins, White Sox, Red Sox), and he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of those.

The White Sox offense has been dreadful against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, with a .292 xwOBA (quality of contact) and .126 ISO (power metric). For reference, we want to see xwOBA in the .350s and higher, while ISO is preferred in the .200s or better. Sparkman won’t get many strikeouts, but perhaps he can see an uptick since the White Sox have been striking out around 25% of the time over that span against righties.

Five of the last six White Sox games have gone under the total, and their offense is a big reason why as they posted no more than three runs in any of those contests.

Dylan Cease made his debut for Chicago on July 3, his only MLB outing up to this point. He allowed three runs over five innings while striking out six Tigers, so there’s not a ton to go off there. However, Cease should certainly benefit from facing a Royals lineup that has similar .293 xwOBA and .137 ISO numbers to his own team’s offense against righties over the last 21 days. Not to mention, the Royals are striking out just over 25% of the time against right-handed pitching over that span.

Four of the last six Royals games have gone under the total, with the only two overs coming against a weak collection of Tigers’ arms.

* Final Score Prediction * Kansas City Royals: 4 – Chicago White Sox: 3

[8:40 p.m. EST] Over 14.5 – San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
SF: Drew Pomeranz – L (2-9, 6.42 ERA/1.77 WHIP)
COL: Peter Lambert – R (2-1, 6.67 ERA/1.48 WHIP)

We missed the boat on the total going over in the second half of last night’s doubleheader, but Vegas is liking the bats to get back to action tonight. The game total has increased from 14.0 to 14.5, with both teams getting a +0.3 increase on their IRT (implied run total) – usually a good sign that offense is on the horizon. After playing two games yesterday, expect each team’s bullpen to be less effective than usual.

Drew Pomeranz has gotten absolutely ripped away from Oracle Park this season, posting a 1-4 record and 9.76 ERA/1.99 WHIP in seven starts. While he has done a decent job against the Rockies, Pomeranz has yet to face them at Coors Field.

Colorado’s offense has some issues it’s working through, especially after scoring a total of three runs in yesterday’s doubleheader, but this is a great spot to get back on the good foot. The star-studded lineup including Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story is not built to have long stretches of ineffectiveness.

Peter Lambert goes for the Rockies, and his brief time in the MLB and has been nothing short of miserable. Over his last four starts (17 2/3 innings), the rookie has allowed 30 hits, 20 runs and eight homers.

The Giants’ offense has been rocking and rolling, with at least seven runs in eight of the last 12 games. Prior to the second game of yesterday’s doubleheader, Rockies’ pitching had allowed 45 runs in the previous three contests.

According to the SpreadKnowledge system, the total going over is our second-strongest play of the night. Granted, we’re shooting for a sky-high total, but we’ve got plenty of reasons to know it’ll come through.

* Final Score Prediction * Colorado Rockies: 12 – San Francisco Giants: 9

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 30

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 126-108-4 (53.8%) *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals (1.5-run line: -190) at Detroit Tigers
WSH: Max Scherzer – R (7-5, 2.52 ERA/
DET: Jordan Zimmermann – R (0-5, 5.95 ERA/1.45 WHIP)

Mad Max is back in the D! It was one of the worst moves in the history of the franchise, letting Max Scherzer out of town, but he’s back to claim what’s rightfully is – respect.

And apparently, breaking his nose was just the thing he needed. Since that tragic gaff, Scherzer has held the opposition to one run over 15 innings while striking out 20 batters. The multi-colored-orbital man has now struck out at least nine batters in each of his last five outings, including double-digits in four of those starts.

Today, Scherzer will go toe-to-toe with Jordan Zimmermann. This is a mismatch made in heaven if you’re betting on the Nationals, which is what I plan on doing here – heavily. Looking at Zimmermann’s stat line, it really doesn’t do justice, and it seems like some time on the IL didn’t do anything to help matters. Since then, Zimmermann has allowed 14 hits and six runs over his last nine innings. In general, the Tigers have lost the last six games that Zimmermann started, five of them coming by two runs or more.

The recent Statcast data against right-handed pitching between the teams is noticeably different. Over the last 21 days, the Nationals have a massive .370 wOBA and .249 ISO while the Tigers are at the opposite end of the spectrum with a .304 wOBA, .158 ISO and 26.3% K-rate.

All in all, we’re not trying to kid anyone here. Max is going to mow these poor Tigers’ hitters with relative ease.

* Final Score Prediction * Washington Nationals: 7 – Detroit Tigers: 1

[1:10 p.m. EST] Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays (ML: -200)
TEX: Jesse Chavez – R (3-2, 2.79 ERA/
TB: Blake Snell – L (4-7, 5.01 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

It’s no secret that Blake Snell has struggled this season, but this a prime opportunity for him to get back on the good foot. The Rangers have struggled mightily against left-handed pitching with a massive 32.6% K-rate over the last 21 days. As we all know, Snell is one of the best in the business at racking them up.

The Rangers will throw a bullpen-game at the Rays today, and it’s not like that’s going to help their case. Over the last 14 days, the Texas bullpen owns a zaftig 4.91 ERA. The road has not been kind to the Rangers this season, and even though their recent success looks good, this is simply a different team away from Globe Life Park.

Let’s roll with the Rays in confidence, and know that Snell is going to dominate this afternoon!

* Final Score Prediction * Tampa Bay Rays: 6 – Texas Rangers: 2 

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, June 26

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 122-105-4 (53.7%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 (-116) – New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (ML: -155)
NYM: Jason Vargas – L (3-3, 3.75 ERA/1.33 WHIP)
PHI: Nick Pivetta – R (4-2, 5.54 ERA/1.45 WHIP)

We’ve been on the right side of this total in the first two games of the Phils-Mets series, so let’s keep the train moving. The Phils already owned the highest IRT (5.6) on the night slate and that has now been boosted by slate-high +0.6 increase. Good things are coming for Philly tonight and the visitors should be able to tack enough runs on to have the total go over.

Jason Vargas takes the mound for the Mets and he’ll be facing a Phils’ offense that is absolutely locked in at the plate in the first two games of this series. For all the struggles Philly had recently, their .418 wOBA and .288 ISO against left-handed pitching are absolutely magnificent. Vargas hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning in each of his last two starts and is averaging just under five innings per start this season.

We should see plenty of the Mets bullpen, and the 20 runs scored by Philly in the first two games of this series have shined an even brighter light on how bad they’ve been. Look for more of the same tonight.

Nick Pivetta has struggled quite a bit over his last two starts, allowing 15 hits/five walks, 10 runs and five homers in 12 innings of work. Despite coughing up numerous runs, the Mets have always been able to them on the board at Citizens Bank Park. Look for the right-handed bats to do most of the damage against Pivetta, as they have a .337 batting average and 1.000 OPS in 102 plate appearances against him this season.

Philly’s bullpen was solid last night, but they have been a shaky unit overall this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Mets get a couple of extra runs against them either.

All in all, we should see plenty of runs for the third-consecutive night – and most of them coming from the Philly side.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 8 – New York Mets: 6

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-104) – Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers
TEX: Mike Minor – L (7-4, 2.52 ERA/1.15 WHIP)
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (5-5, 3.61 ERA/1.11 WHIP)

We’ll have dueling lefties at Comerica Park tonight as two of the more underrated pitchers in baseball will square off. Vegas adjusted the total down from 9.0 to 8.5 and the IRTs dipped for both teams: Rangers: -0.5, Tigers: -0.1.

Mike Minor has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last 11 starts – he’s allowed two runs or fewer eight times, one run or fewer six times and no runs in two of those outings. So far in the month of June, Minor has a 2-0 record and 1.93 ERA over four starts.

The Tigers’ numbers are slightly below average against lefties over the last 21 days with a .325 wOBA, and I see them having an even tougher time against Minor.

On the other side, Matt Boyd will look to get back on track after a few mediocre/rough outings against quality opponents in three of his last four. The caveat here is the Rangers’ woeful .260 wOBA, .098 ISO and 30.3% K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days. In the midst of Boyd’s struggles, he’s still striking out plenty of hitters – 30 Ks over the last 22 innings. Not to mention, the current Rangers’ roster owns a .263 on-base percentage in 78 career plate appearances against Boyd.

The SK Trend Confidence rating has B+ grades for the Rangers and total under tonight, which are some of the highest on the slate.

* Final Score Prediction * Texas Rangers: 4 – Detroit Tigers: 2

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 23

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 118-101-4 (54%) *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (ML: -200/1.5-run line: -114)
DET: Daniel Norris – L (2-5, 4.40 ERA/1.41 WHIP)
CLE: Zach Plesac – R (2-2, 2.56 ERA/0.98 WHIP)

The Indians are 7-1 against the Tigers this season, and it’s not looking like things will get any better for the visitors today. This will be the 11th time Cleveland is favored by -200 or more, with an 8-3 record in those games.  On the other hand, Detroit has been struggling, with losses in seven of the last eight contests.

Zach Plesac, the nephew of former MLB pitcher Dan Plesac, has lived up to the namesake early in his career. The rookie righty has allowed two runs or fewer in four of the last five starts – one run or fewer in three of the five. Detroit’s numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days are absolutely dreadful — .287 wOBA, .145 ISO and 25.4% K-rate.

On the flip side, Cleveland’s offense has been the exact opposite against left-handed pitching. The Tribe has a magnificent .400 wOBA, .292 ISO and 14.4% K-rate in that split over the last 21 days.

While Daniel Norris hasn’t exactly gotten beat over the head recently, it’ll be tough for him to keep up that level of effectiveness today against an Indians team that is rocking and rolling — pun intended to the city of Cleveland.

Lastly, we’ve got a huge difference in bullpens here, as the Indians own the league’s best ERA (3.21) and the Tigers have the fifth-worst (5.18).

I don’t mind taking the Indians on the moneyline or 1.5-run line here — they get it done either which way.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 6 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[1:35 p.m. EST] Atlanta Braves (1.5-run line: -106) at Washington Nationals
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (8-1, 2.12 ERA/
WSH: Austin Voth – R (season debut)

Mike Soroka has looked a little more human after his unreal start to the season, but it’s still been enough to keep getting the Braves wins. The young Canadian righty only threw 68 pitches in his last outing, so look for him to be fully charged up for this one.

Atlanta is a perfect 10-0 when Soroka starts against teams with a losing record this season and the team also own a 10-2 record on Sundays. The Braves have won the last eight of Soroka’s starts. Also, the Nationals have somehow never seen Soroka before, giving him the advantage of the unknown – it’s a thing.

Austin Voth gets a spot start for the Nationals today, in place of Joe Ross. Washington needed Ross to pitch last night in an emergency because of all the runs that were scored, and the fact that its bullpen has been taxed all week – including the doubleheader on Wednesday. Voth’s season down in Triple-A hasn’t been great, as he’s 3-5 with a 4.40 ERA.

This is all great news for the Braves’ offense today, and Vegas has taken note by elevating their IRT an entire run from 4.6 to 5.6 – the third-highest on the entire slate. Atlanta’s offense also owns a massive .385 wOBA and .260 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 10 – Washington Nationals: 3 *

[1:35 p.m. EST] San Diego Padres (ML: -142) at Pittsburgh Pirates
SD: Joey Lucchesi – L (6-4, 3.74 ERA/1.11 WHIP)
PIT: Steven Brault – L (3-1, 4.40 ERA/1.55 WHIP)

The Padres will be looking to avoid the sweep and look to have the right guy for the job in Joey Lucchesi, who is coming off a masterful seven-inning shutout performance against the Brewers. Lucchesi has been solid, allowing two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts, and he already stifled this Pirates’ offense a little more than a month ago by allowing only two runs over seven innings.

Not to mention, the Pirates own the league’s third-lowest wOBA (.284) against left-handed pitching. Pittsburgh’s .282 xwOBA against lefties over the last 21 days indicates they’re not seeing the ball well either and with Lucchesi’s herky-jerky motion won’t make things any easier.

It’s certainly an optimistic outlook for the Padres, as this will be their second-highest moneyline odds on the road this season.

Steven Brault goes for the Pirates, and he’ll have trouble against a Padres’ lineup featuring seven right-handed bats. As a team, San Diego owns a massive .256 ISO against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

Look for Lucchesi’s big outing to lead the way to a Padres’ victory today.

* Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres: 7 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, June 21

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 114-96-4 (54.2%) *

 

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-108) – Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies (1.5-run line: -128)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara – R (3-6, 3.73 ERA/1.39 WHIP)
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (6-1, 4.89 ERA/1.51 WHIP)

Both teams have been absolutely dreadful against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, with the Marlins registering slightly worse numbers. Their .086 ISO in that split will certainly be hard to overcome, especially with 12 mph winds blowing in from left field.

If you think runs at Citizens Bank Park are always at a premium, that’s just not the case – eight of the last 12 games there have gone under the total.

Aaron Nola certainly hasn’t been at his best recently (and most of this season), but this matchup against the Marlins is one that he’s dominated in the past. Over his last five starts (33 innings) against Miami, the righty has allowed only six runs and a 1.00 WHIP. While the matchup lends some optimism, Nola has been much better at Citizens Bank Park over the course of his career. His numbers certainly signal that this season, as evidenced by the 3.51 ERA at home and 7.28 ERA on the road.

Philly’s offense really sputtered in the last game of the Atlanta series and then throughout the Washington series. As I mentioned at the top, their numbers aren’t great against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days – .280 wOBA and 25% K-rate. On the season as a whole, the Phils now own the eighth-worst wOBA (.309) against righties.

Sandy Alcantara was snake-bitten by his defense in a recent start, but he’s allowed one earned run or fewer now in four of the last six starts. The righty has only faced Philly twice in his career, with one glamorous outing and one bad outing – that one coming this season. However, given the Phils’ current state of affairs at the plate and the wind blowing in tonight, I’m not too worried about Alcantara getting beat over the head.

I like the Phils to get the victory, but it’ll have to come in a tight game. Philly is 5-2 against Miami this season, with a four of the seven games going under the total. The SK Trend Confidence rating is also high on the Phils to get this win on the 1.5-run line, and that plays right into the narrative.

* Final Score Prediction – Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8 (-118) – Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (5-5, 3.35 ERA/1.08 WHIP)
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (5-6, 3.41 ERA/1.12 WHIP)

Vegas knows that a big-time pitching performance is coming from one of these studs tonight, as both teams had their IRTs decreased – Indians: -0.6, Tigers: -0.4. Also, it’s not an overwhelming sign, but it does help that there will be 7 mph winds blowing in from center field.

What Trevor Bauer did against the Tigers in his last outing will be greatly appreciated if he does it again. The quirky righty had his first complete-game shutout of the season in the eight-strikeout performance, en route to an 8-0 Indians’ victory. It does appear like Bauer could be finally getting back on track after a shaky start to the season. In Bauer’s previous outing, he allowed one run over 7 2/3 innings and that’s now back-to-back performances that notched Indians’ wins.

It’s also worth noting that Cleveland’s bullpen has the best ERA (3.36) in baseball.

Matt Boyd is coming off his worst performance of the season, which was quite shocking since it was against a Royals’ team that is woeful against left-handed pitching. I’m not going to write him off because he still has elite swing-and-miss stuff, notching 112 strikeouts in 88 2/3 innings this season. Boyd has actually held Cleveland to one run or fewer in four of his seven career performance – in three other games, Boyd held them to two, three and six runs. There’s a history of goodness here.

Cleveland is 5-1 against the Detroit this season, with under registering a 4-1-1 record in those games. The Indians have also outscored the Tigers 38-12 this season.

The total going under is the fifth-highest SK Trend Confidence rating on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 5 – Detroit Tigers: 1 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-118) – Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
CIN: Sonny Gray – R (3-5, 3.77 ERA/1.21 WHIP)
MIL: Chase Anderson – R (3-1, 4.05 ERA/1.39 WHIP)

There are very strong trends for the total going under in Milwaukee tonight, and it’s actually the second-highest graded pick in our system. It’s also good news that both teams have seen their IRTs decrease – Brewers: -0.2, Reds: -0.3 – since the open.

Five of the six Brewers-Reds games this season have gone under the total, and both starting pitchers have a great history against each team. Not to mention, 15 of the last 16 Reds’ games have gone under the total, while Brewers’ games have suffered the same fate in three of the last four.

Let’s start with Sonny Gray, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all but one of his 14 starts this season. In his last outing against Milwaukee, Gray matched a season-high nine strikeouts en route to a Cincy 3-0 victory. He could have another big performance like that one, considering the Brewers own a 31.3% K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

Behind Gray is the Reds’ bullpen, who has allowed the fewest homers (28) and second-lowest ERA (3.40) in baseball.

Chase Anderson doesn’t have a long leash, compared to most MLB pitchers, so we’re essentially relying on the Brewers’ bullpen for half the game. They have the 10th-best ERA (3.38) and are right around that same area for the season.

It’s not like Anderson has been getting crushed, but he should do just fine against a Reds’ lineup that owns a dreadful .266 xwOBA against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days. After that, the Brewers’ bullpen will pick it up from there.

I don’t necessarily like a side here, but a low-scoring game is certainly on the horizon.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 3 – Cincinnati Reds: 2 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers (ML: -190/1.5-run line: +120)
COL: German Marquez – R (7-3, 4.57 ERA/1.23 WHIP)
LAD: Walker Buehler – R (7-1, 3.06 ERA/0.92 WHIP)

We’ve got a tale of two pitchers heading in opposite directions, and that’s why the SK Trend Confidence rating is the highest on the Dodgers tonight. LA’s moneyline and 1.5-run are the top trends of any other selections on the entire day’s slate.

Walker Buehler has been downright filthy, allowing one earned run or fewer in six of his last starts. The young righty has done some of his best work lately against some of the better bats in the National League – Cubs and D-Backs. Over his last 22 innings of work, Buehler has allowed one run and a ridiculous 0.45 WHIP while striking out 26 batters.

Sure, the Rockies have plenty of talented bats, but they have their fair share of games with a high strikeout total. Not to mention, their current roster has a combined .189 batting average and .267 on-base percentage against Buehler lifetime.

On the other hand, German Marquez is getting absolutely ripped by opposing hitters. Over the last three games/17 innings (Cubs x2, Padres), he’s allowed 22 hits (5 HR), seven walks and 19 runs. Yikes! A good number of these Dodgers’ hitters have a solid history against Marquez, and it’s setting up to be another good night for the boys in blue.

The Dodgers are 31-9 at home and 21-5 at home against teams with a right-handed starting pitcher this season.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 6 – Colorado Rockies: 0 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, June 19

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 113-94-4 (54.6%) *

[6:40 p.m. EST] Over 9 (-102) Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners
KC: Brad Keller – R (3-8, 3.97 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
SEA: Marco Gonzales – L (7-6, 4.50 ERA/1.39 WHIP)

The only trend with an A-grade in today’s SpreadKnowledge Trend Confidence rating is for the total going over in this game. It makes plenty of sense, considering 11 of the Mariners’ last 14 games have done such.

A big reason for today’s optimistic thinking is Marco Gonzalez, who has been ripped at T-Mobile Field this season. The lefty owns a 6.53 ERA and 1.60 WHIP to go along with an opposing batting average of .312 in eight home starts. In comparison, Gonzalez owns a 2.77 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with an opposing batting average of .244 on the road. Apparently, someone likes hotel linens.

The numbers for Gonzales are also brutal in daytime starts, with a 6.75 ERA and 1.86 WHIP with a .331 opposing batting average in six such outings.

If Gonzales gets beat up early, Seattle’s bullpen hasn’t been much better of late. Only the Orioles’ pen has allowed more runs over the last seven days, and only two pens have allowed more homers over the same stretch.

KC’s bats have been performing very well over the last three games, with a total of 23 runs in that stretch.

Brad Keller will take the mound for the Royals, and while he’s pitched well over the last two starts, I don’t think he’ll keep it up too much longer. Allowing baserunners have been an issue at times this season and the Mariners have plenty of speed on basepaths to make things uncomfortable for him. I don’t see Keller getting destroyed, but certainly allowing enough runs to comfortably get us over the total.

Vegas elevated the total of this game up to 9.0, from its original spot 8.5, with the IRTs increased for both teams – Mariners: +0.3, Royals: +0.2.

* Final Score Prediction: Kansas City Royals: 8 – Seattle Mariners: 4 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates (1.5-run line: +100)
DET: Jordan Zimmermann – R (0-4, 5.93 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
PIT: Trevor Williams – R (2-1, 3.33 ERA/1.13 WHIP)

We rarely talk about the Pirates putting a thumping on teams, but tonight seems like a good time to start. Pittsburgh had more than a full-run IRT increase from 4.3 to 5.6, which is usually a glowing sign of success. The Pirates’ -200 number on the moneyline is their highest (by far) of the season. It’s also worth noting they’re a whopping 22-8 in the last 30 inter-league games.

A big reason for the massive favoritism is Trevor Williams, who owns a 2-0 record, 0.95 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in three career starts against the Tigers. One of those starts came back in April, as Williams allowed only two runs over six innings en route to getting the win.

Since this is Williams’ first start in a little over a month, I doubt he’ll go more than five innings – maybe six if all goes well. Not to worry, Pittsburgh’s bullpen has allowed the second-fewest runs (4) in MLB over the last seven days, and that’s even with facing the 10th-most batters (107) over that span.

Speaking of returning after a long stint on the injured list, Jordan Zimmermann will be doing the same. Things weren’t going well at all before that stint, and Zimmerman got rocked in his rehab outing in Triple-A on Thursday. The righty allowed four runs, including two homers, over 4 2/3 innings down on the farm for Toledo.

The big difference here is that Pittsburgh has done well against Zimmermann over the course of his career. In 98 plate appearances, the Pirates’ current roster owns a combined .326 batting average and .990 OPS to go along with six homers against him.

All in all, Vegas has spoken with the massive moneyline and IRT increases. I’m taking the Pirates on the 1.5-run line and shedding some money to lay out. The SK Trend Confidence rating also has a strong B+ grade on the total going over in this game, and that should have a lot to do with the Pirates’ success.

* Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates: 10 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-106) – San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
SF: Drew Pomeranz – L (2-6, 6.43 ERA/1.73 WHIP)
LAD: Rich Hill – L (4-1, 2.60 ERA/1.13 WHIP)

The SK Trend Confidence rating has a very strong lean (B+ grade) for the total going under in this game. Reason being, 13 of the Dodgers’ last 18 games have suffered that fate.

Rich Hill has been outstanding over his last six starts, allowing two runs or fewer in all of them – the only misnomer went for three runs. The strikeouts are starting to come back for Hill, who now has a total of 59 in 52 innings of work this season. San Fran has been downright awful against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days, with a .237 wOBA, .046 ISO and 28% K-rate. Good luck with all that.

While Hill doesn’t typically go too deep into games, that’s alright. The Dodgers’ bullpen owns the lowest ERA in MLB over the last seven and 14 days – another big reason why the total has been going under in a lot of their games recently.

We haven’t looked at Drew Pomeranz as a solid pitcher most of this season, but that hasn’t been the case lately. The lefty now has back-to-back appearances of allowing no earned runs, with one of those performances coming against these same Dodgers. Not to mention, the current Dodgers’ roster owns a combined .179 batting average and .235 on-base percentage in 101 career plate appearances against Pomeranz.

Vegas likes the under here, moving the total from 8.0 to 7.5 and both teams’ IRTs suffer because of that – Dodgers: -0.3, Giants: -0.2.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 5 – San Francisco Giants: 1 *

NBA Finals & MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, June 13

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

* 2019 MLB Record: 104-85-4 (55%) *

NBA Finals – Game 6:
Under 211.5 (-110) – Toronto Raptors (+2.5, -110/ML: +124) at Golden State Warriors

Game 5 was a cruel twist of everyone’s emotions. The Warriors led nearly the entire game, but that was followed by a Raptors run that gave them a 103-97 advantage with about five minutes to go. Then, just as they’ve done so many times in the past, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson engineered a meticulous 3-point shooting exhibition and took the lead late to come away with the 106-105 victory.

Let’s be honest – Toronto has dominated the majority of the series. Even in the games that Golden State won, they barely hung on for dear life at the end. Sure, the Warriors got a huge jolt of energy from Kevin Durant’s presence in Game 5, but knowing he’s gone has to put them in a different mindset. Unfortunately, that mindset could be detrimental as the Splash Brothers know they need to do literally everything on offense.

Expect Nick Nurse to formulate a gameplan that makes life difficult on Curry and Thompson all night. In my opinion, you HAVE TO make anyone but these two guys beat you.

We know this will be the final game at Oracle Arena and the crowd will be the loudest it has ever been. However, I don’t think that’ll be enough to help the worn-down and beat-up Warriors tonight. Kawhi Leonard has the perfect mentality, in that a riled-up crowd isn’t something that will get to him. Expect the rest of his teammates to follow suit and hoist the trophy at the end of the night.

Lastly, the SK Trend Confidence rating likes the total to go under in this game, as three of the last four games in this series have suffered the same fate.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Raptors: 103 – Golden State Warriors: 99 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-104) – Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
TEX: Adrian Sampson – R (5-3, 3.72 ERA/1.33 WHIP)
BOS: David Price – L (4-2, 2.70 ERA/1.05 WHIP)

Vegas has already declared this as a low-scoring game, dropping the IRTs for both teams – Rangers: -0.6, Red Sox: -0.3. The Rangers’ IRT actually comes in as the largest drop for any team on today’s entire schedule.

David Price has been simply magnificent, and you know this because he actually pitched well at Yankee Stadium two starts ago, a place that’s been an absolute nightmare for him. Not including the one start where Price came out in the first inning at Houston (due to sickness), the veteran lefty has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts – the one misnomer, he allowed three. In addition, Price has a microscopic 1.08 ERA in four starts at Fenway Park this season.

The Rangers’ offense has not been great against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days, with a .302 xwOBA and .127 ISO.

After an absolutely brutal start to the season, Adrian Sampson has allowed exactly one run in four of his last five starts – the one misnomer, he allowed three. Not to mention, Sampson has struck out 18 batters in his last 16 innings of work. It also helps matters for the under that Boston’s offense has only produced an average of three runs per game over the last seven contests.

All in all, both starting pitchers are at the top of their respective games and Vegas has made the proper adjustments on the run total. 10 of the Rangers’ last 14 games have gone under the total, while Red Sox games have suffered the same fate in four of the last five.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 4 – Texas Rangers: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 (-110) – Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays
LAA: Tyler Skaggs – L (4-6, 4.97 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
TB: Ryan Yarbrough – L (5-2, 5.31 ERA/1.09 WHIP)

Both of these teams have been doing a great job against left-handed pitching and also have a great history against each of these pitchers.

Let’s start with the Angels, who smashed Ryan Yarbrough for six runs (two homers) in 5 1/3 innings at Tropicana Field last season. Los Angeles has been great against lefties all season, but even more recently owns a robust .400 wOBA and .269 ISO over the last 21 days.

Yarbrough is scheduled to come in after the “opener” that Tampa Bay occasionally rolls out for an inning or two. Good news for the total going over tonight, as Yarbrough owns a 7.25 ERA at Tropicana Field – 3.15 ERA on the road.

The Rays don’t necessarily have the power numbers against lefties, but they are getting on base a great deal, registering a .347 wOBA over the last 21 days. In that same start where Yarbrough got ripped last season, Tyler Skaggs did even worse, allowing 10 runs over 3 1/3 innings. Much like Yarbrough’s splits working in our favor, Skaggs has a much worse 6.23 ERA on the road, compared to his 3.58 ERA at home.

Vegas adjusted the run total from 8.5 to 9.0, with each team getting a slight increase on the IRT, so that is good news that things are trending in that direction. Look for history to repeat itself and plenty of cleats to touch home plate tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 7 – Tampa Bay Rays: 6 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers (ML: -126) at Kansas City Royals
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (5-4, 3.08 ERA/1.04 WHIP)
KC: Homer Bailey – R (4-6, 5.90 ERA/1.51 WHIP)

Matthew Boyd had a few tough matchups of late but still managed to hold his own against some of the league’s best. In fact, he’s notched at least seven strikeouts in each of five outings, and that includes going against teams like the Twins, Braves and A’s. That’s bad news for a Royals team that is striking out 27.8% of the time against lefties over the last 21 days. Not to mention, their offense against lefties has sucked all year, owning the third-worst wOBA (.281) in baseball this season.

Boyd did skill this KC team a month ago, striking out nine Royals over seven innings en route to a win.

On the other side, Homer Bailey gets ripped with great regularity. Bailey has some of the worst advanced metrics of any pitcher on tonight’s slate, setting up a huge night for the Tigers’ offense. While they haven’t scored a ton of runs lately, the heart of the order has been making solid contact against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days and that bad luck is bound to turn around, especially against a pitcher like Bailey.

Look for Detroit to get back on the good foot and Boyd to lead the way with a dominant performance tonight. The Tigers are 6-2 against the Royals this season and Bailey’s teams are a dreadful 6-27 in games that he’s started over the last two seasons.

* Final Score Prediction: Detroit Tigers: 6 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 9

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 97-80-4 (55%) *

[1:05 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-106) – Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
TB: Blake Snell – L (3-5, 3.68 ERA/1.11 WHIP)
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (6-3, 4.88 ERA/1.37 WHIP)

Blake Snell ran into a hot Tigers’ offense in his last start, allowing seven hits and six runs over 4 1/3 innings. That outing was certainly a misnomer, considering the electric lefty had only allowed six runs in his previous 30 1/3 innings.

Today, Snell will take on a Red Sox team he’s dominated since the start of last season. Snell has collected the win in each of his last three starts against Boston and hasn’t allowed more than two runs against them in each of the last four. The Red Sox offense hasn’t looked good in this series, and it helps Snell’s case that Mookie Betts is only hitting .209 against left-handed pitching. As for the rest of the Red Sox offense against lefties, they’re swinging and missing at a massive 31.8% K-rate and own a putrid .260 xwOBA over the last 14 days.

Eduardo Rodriguez gets the benefit of facing a Rays team that has the highest K-rate (28.8%) against left-handed pitching this season. While E-Rod’s numbers don’t look great on the surface versus Tampa Bay, it’s worth noting that he’s allowed three runs or fewer in six of seven starts against them.

I fully expect E-Rod to match Snell’s performance today, giving us a nice pitching duel for most of the day. Good news for the under here, as the IRT has dropped -0.3 for both sides.

Fun fact: Dating back to last season, the Red Sox are 29-7 in games that Rodriguez has started.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 3 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2 *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: -144) at Detroit Tigers
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (8-2, 1.96 ERA/0.96 WHIP)
DET: Ryan Carpenter – L (1-2, 6.23 ERA/1.35 WHIP)

The Twins are the number one offense in baseball, particularly against left-handed pitching, and their 5.8 IRT ranks third-best on the entire slate. Today, they’ll take on a lefty in Ryan Carpenter who actually has worse numbers at home. Carpenter has gotten lit up at Comerica Park, allowing at least seven hits in all three starts there, which totals out to an 8.44 ERA and .338 opposing batting average.

Jake Odorizzi takes the mound for Minnesota, and he’s been fantastic allowing NO RUNS in six of his last seven starts – I repeat: NO RUNS in six of his last seven starts. Whoa! Not to mention, the Twins have won each of the last nine times Odorizzi was on the bump.

Look for the Twins to roll easily in this one, with Odorizzi getting more than enough run support to make it work.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 8 – Detroit Tigers: 0 *

[3:05 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics (1.5-run line: -126) at Texas Rangers
OAK: Frankie Montas – R (7-2, 2.83 ERA/1.17 WHIP)
TEX: Drew Smyly – L (1-4, 7.93 ERA/1.86 WHIP)

It’s a huge mismatch of starting pitchers at Globe Life Park today, so look for the A’s to take this one easily.

Drew Smyly takes the mound for the Rangers, and he’s been beaten up like he’s owed people money of late. Smyly had eerily-similar stat lines in each of his last two starts, allowing eight hits and seven runs against the Mariners and Orioles. That’s a major problem, considering the A’s rank first in ISO (.229) and tied for second in wOBA (.357) against left-handed pitching this season.

Oakland owns a magnificent .420 wOBA against lefties over the last 14 days, hence why they have the highest IRT (6.4) on the entire slate.

Frankie Montas has been simply dominant this season, and he’s allowed two runs or fewer in six of the last seven starts. The splits actually work in favor of Montas as well, as he’s 4-2 with a 2.36 ERA in seven road starts, while going 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA in three daytime starts too.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics: 10 – Texas Rangers: 3 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, June 4

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 93-76-4 (55%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Atlanta Braves (1.5-run line: -102) at Pittsburgh Pirates
ATL: Max Fried – L (7-3, 3.19 ERA/1.21 WHIP)
PIT: Steven Brault – L (2-1, 5.87 ERA/1.60 WHIP)

Any time the Braves are going against a lefty, they’re getting immediate consideration from me. Steven Brault may have pitched well in each of his last two starts, but I’m not fooled by who this guy really is. In fact, his control issues are truly scary, allowing 14 free passes over his last 22 innings of work – yikes!!!

Not to mention, Atlanta is absolutely hammering lefties over the last 14 days with a .372 xwOBA (metric for quality contact) and .255 ISO (metric for power) – both numbers are in elite territory. If Brault’s control issues continue to be a problem, Atlanta will make him pay for all of those extra baserunners.

Brault typically doesn’t go too deep into games, but that’s still fine for Braves’ bats. Over the last 14 days, the Pirates’ bullpen ranks in the bottom five of MLB in most advanced metrics.

When we talk about the Pirates’ bats against left-handed pitching it’s the exact opposite, as they rank third-worst in wOBA (weighted on-base average) at .282. While Pittsburgh isn’t striking out much over the last 14 days against lefties, a good portion of its lineup isn’t making much quality contact either.

Max Fried doesn’t strike a ton of batters out, but his 55% ground-ball rate should play well against the Pirates. It also helps that PNC Park is one of the worst hitting/power parks for right-handed batters, playing right into Fried’s strengths.

The Braves’ moneyline increase (-130 to -166) is the third-highest on tonight’s full slate of games. I don’t mind taking the 1.5-run line here, considering 15 of the Pirates’ 16 losses since the start of May have come by two runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 6 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 3 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-104) – Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers
TB: Blake Snell – L (3-4, 3.06 ERA/1.04 WHIP)
DET: Ryan Carpenter – L (0-2, 7.58 ERA/1.47 WHIP)

We’ve got two lefties going toe-to-toe at Comerica Park tonight, and I like the total to go under 8.5 runs. But, of course, we’re looking for Blake Snell to be the one that carries us there.

Snell has been fantastic, allowing two runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 outings. While the Tigers have been a bit more pesky of late, Snell is in a totally different category. He hasn’t had all of these 10-plus strikeout games that we’ve been accustomed to, but he is keeping runs off the scoreboard.

Ryan Carpenter has been much better over his last two starts, allowing two runs each time out. The key here is Tampa Bay against lefties, who own the highest K-rate (30%) in that split this season. Not to mention, the numbers have really shown their struggles against lefties over the last 14 days, as the Rays own a putrid .285 xwOBA, .150 ISO and 26% K-rate.

The Rays are much better on the road, so I’ll give them the nudge there. Especially having Snell on the mound will help too.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 4 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs (1.5-run line: -130)
COL: Jeff Hoffman – R (1-1, 7.20 ERA/1.60 WHIP)
CHC: Kyle Hendricks – R (5-4, 3.09 ERA/1.11 WHIP)

The Rockies come off a fantastic 9-1 homestand, but let’s simmer it down a bit. They did face the Orioles and Blue Jays for six of those games. And sure, the four-game sweep of the D-Backs was impressive, even though three of the wins came by one run.

I think they get a good dose of reality tonight at Wrigley Field, where the Cubs really need to get rolling. Not to mention, there’s a little bit of revenge factor here as the Rockies defeated the Cubs in the Wild Card game last season.

We know who Jeff Hoffman is. The righty’s abysmal numbers in three starts this season are right on par with what he’s done over his career. While Hoffman has been much better away from Coors Field, the conditions in Chicago will make it feel somewhat similar, as the winds will be blowing out to left-center field at about 10-12 mph tonight.

On the other hand, Kyle Hendricks is well-equipped to deal with these friendly hitting conditions. I’ve said it before, and I’ll continue to say it, but Hendricks is a homeless man’s Greg Maddux. The veteran righty hits his spots and it has been incredible to see him get more strikeouts than ever. While the Rockies’ numbers are a bit inflated from their recent homestand, they do tend to have their fair share of swings and misses.

Given the higher total than usual for Wrigley Field, the Cubs have the highest moneyline increase (-180 to -225) of the night and +0.4 IRT increase, let’s fly the W flag – on the 1.5-run line here as well.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 8 – Colorado Rockies: 3 *