Tag: Miami Marlins

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, June 21

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 114-96-4 (54.2%) *

 

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-108) – Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies (1.5-run line: -128)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara – R (3-6, 3.73 ERA/1.39 WHIP)
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (6-1, 4.89 ERA/1.51 WHIP)

Both teams have been absolutely dreadful against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, with the Marlins registering slightly worse numbers. Their .086 ISO in that split will certainly be hard to overcome, especially with 12 mph winds blowing in from left field.

If you think runs at Citizens Bank Park are always at a premium, that’s just not the case – eight of the last 12 games there have gone under the total.

Aaron Nola certainly hasn’t been at his best recently (and most of this season), but this matchup against the Marlins is one that he’s dominated in the past. Over his last five starts (33 innings) against Miami, the righty has allowed only six runs and a 1.00 WHIP. While the matchup lends some optimism, Nola has been much better at Citizens Bank Park over the course of his career. His numbers certainly signal that this season, as evidenced by the 3.51 ERA at home and 7.28 ERA on the road.

Philly’s offense really sputtered in the last game of the Atlanta series and then throughout the Washington series. As I mentioned at the top, their numbers aren’t great against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days – .280 wOBA and 25% K-rate. On the season as a whole, the Phils now own the eighth-worst wOBA (.309) against righties.

Sandy Alcantara was snake-bitten by his defense in a recent start, but he’s allowed one earned run or fewer now in four of the last six starts. The righty has only faced Philly twice in his career, with one glamorous outing and one bad outing – that one coming this season. However, given the Phils’ current state of affairs at the plate and the wind blowing in tonight, I’m not too worried about Alcantara getting beat over the head.

I like the Phils to get the victory, but it’ll have to come in a tight game. Philly is 5-2 against Miami this season, with a four of the seven games going under the total. The SK Trend Confidence rating is also high on the Phils to get this win on the 1.5-run line, and that plays right into the narrative.

* Final Score Prediction – Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8 (-118) – Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (5-5, 3.35 ERA/1.08 WHIP)
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (5-6, 3.41 ERA/1.12 WHIP)

Vegas knows that a big-time pitching performance is coming from one of these studs tonight, as both teams had their IRTs decreased – Indians: -0.6, Tigers: -0.4. Also, it’s not an overwhelming sign, but it does help that there will be 7 mph winds blowing in from center field.

What Trevor Bauer did against the Tigers in his last outing will be greatly appreciated if he does it again. The quirky righty had his first complete-game shutout of the season in the eight-strikeout performance, en route to an 8-0 Indians’ victory. It does appear like Bauer could be finally getting back on track after a shaky start to the season. In Bauer’s previous outing, he allowed one run over 7 2/3 innings and that’s now back-to-back performances that notched Indians’ wins.

It’s also worth noting that Cleveland’s bullpen has the best ERA (3.36) in baseball.

Matt Boyd is coming off his worst performance of the season, which was quite shocking since it was against a Royals’ team that is woeful against left-handed pitching. I’m not going to write him off because he still has elite swing-and-miss stuff, notching 112 strikeouts in 88 2/3 innings this season. Boyd has actually held Cleveland to one run or fewer in four of his seven career performance – in three other games, Boyd held them to two, three and six runs. There’s a history of goodness here.

Cleveland is 5-1 against the Detroit this season, with under registering a 4-1-1 record in those games. The Indians have also outscored the Tigers 38-12 this season.

The total going under is the fifth-highest SK Trend Confidence rating on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 5 – Detroit Tigers: 1 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-118) – Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
CIN: Sonny Gray – R (3-5, 3.77 ERA/1.21 WHIP)
MIL: Chase Anderson – R (3-1, 4.05 ERA/1.39 WHIP)

There are very strong trends for the total going under in Milwaukee tonight, and it’s actually the second-highest graded pick in our system. It’s also good news that both teams have seen their IRTs decrease – Brewers: -0.2, Reds: -0.3 – since the open.

Five of the six Brewers-Reds games this season have gone under the total, and both starting pitchers have a great history against each team. Not to mention, 15 of the last 16 Reds’ games have gone under the total, while Brewers’ games have suffered the same fate in three of the last four.

Let’s start with Sonny Gray, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all but one of his 14 starts this season. In his last outing against Milwaukee, Gray matched a season-high nine strikeouts en route to a Cincy 3-0 victory. He could have another big performance like that one, considering the Brewers own a 31.3% K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

Behind Gray is the Reds’ bullpen, who has allowed the fewest homers (28) and second-lowest ERA (3.40) in baseball.

Chase Anderson doesn’t have a long leash, compared to most MLB pitchers, so we’re essentially relying on the Brewers’ bullpen for half the game. They have the 10th-best ERA (3.38) and are right around that same area for the season.

It’s not like Anderson has been getting crushed, but he should do just fine against a Reds’ lineup that owns a dreadful .266 xwOBA against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days. After that, the Brewers’ bullpen will pick it up from there.

I don’t necessarily like a side here, but a low-scoring game is certainly on the horizon.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 3 – Cincinnati Reds: 2 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers (ML: -190/1.5-run line: +120)
COL: German Marquez – R (7-3, 4.57 ERA/1.23 WHIP)
LAD: Walker Buehler – R (7-1, 3.06 ERA/0.92 WHIP)

We’ve got a tale of two pitchers heading in opposite directions, and that’s why the SK Trend Confidence rating is the highest on the Dodgers tonight. LA’s moneyline and 1.5-run are the top trends of any other selections on the entire day’s slate.

Walker Buehler has been downright filthy, allowing one earned run or fewer in six of his last starts. The young righty has done some of his best work lately against some of the better bats in the National League – Cubs and D-Backs. Over his last 22 innings of work, Buehler has allowed one run and a ridiculous 0.45 WHIP while striking out 26 batters.

Sure, the Rockies have plenty of talented bats, but they have their fair share of games with a high strikeout total. Not to mention, their current roster has a combined .189 batting average and .267 on-base percentage against Buehler lifetime.

On the other hand, German Marquez is getting absolutely ripped by opposing hitters. Over the last three games/17 innings (Cubs x2, Padres), he’s allowed 22 hits (5 HR), seven walks and 19 runs. Yikes! A good number of these Dodgers’ hitters have a solid history against Marquez, and it’s setting up to be another good night for the boys in blue.

The Dodgers are 31-9 at home and 21-5 at home against teams with a right-handed starting pitcher this season.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 6 – Colorado Rockies: 0 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, June 12

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

* 2019 MLB Record: 104-82-4 (56%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies (ML: -137)
ARZ: Merrill Kelly – R (6-6, 4.12 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
PHI: Zach Eflin – R (6-5, 2.88 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

Zach Eflin loves sleeping in his own bed, as evidenced by the 4-1 record and 2.10 ERA he’s produced at Citizens Bank Park this season. Both teams had their IRTs decrease (Phillies: -0.3, D-Backs: -0.2) since the open today and that’s probably a good sign for Eflin, considering how well he’s pitched at home. With the total dropping a half-run, that has more to do with Eflin than his opposition.

I’m looking for a big shutdown performance from Eflin that’ll carry the Phils to victory. After all, Philly is unbeaten in all six of Eflin’s June starts over the last two seasons, while going 32-18 this season when a right-handed starter is on the mound.

30-year-old rookie Merrill Kelly has been outstanding in each of his last two starts, but he does own a 6.00 ERA in seven outings away from Chase Field this season. Kelly has been much worse against right-handed batters and the Phils have plenty of them (Segura, Hoskins, Realmuto, Kingery, Franco) that can make life difficult on him.

The Phils will be without Bryce Harper in the starting lineup tonight, but I still think we’re getting solid value here with Eflin on the mound.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 4 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals (1.5-run line: -116) at Miami Marlins
STL: Miles Mikolas – R (4.54 ERA/1.19 WHIP)
MIA: Jordan Yamamoto – R (MLB debut)

Well, it finally happened – the Marlins came crashing back down to Earth. After taking the first two of a three-game series in Milwaukee last week, the Marlins have now scored one run or fewer in five of the last six games.

Things won’t get any easier as Miami will have Jordan Yamamoto, making his MLB debut, against the usually-efficient Miles Mikolas. The Cardinals are 31-14 in games that Mikolas starts over the last two seasons, including a 15-6 mark on the road over that span. Not to mention, Mikolas is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in his career against the Marlins.

Yamamoto had a 3-5 record with a 3.58 ERA in 12 starts for the Marlins’ Double-A affiliate in Jacksonville this season. He was actually part of the deal that sent Christian Yelich to Milwaukee. Needless to say, we know who won that trade.

The Marlins are 2-14 at home as underdogs of +125 to +175 this season, and 0-9 at home when the total is 8.0 or 8.5.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 6 – Miami Marlins: 1 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: -135)
SEA: Opener <-to-> Tommy Milone – L (1-1, 3.10 ERA/1.08 WHIP)
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (8-2, 3.14 ERA/1.08 WHIP)

Jose Berrios has been outstanding at Target Field, compiling a 23-6 record there since 2017. The Twins are 11-2 in games that Berrios starts this season, with eight of them coming by two runs or more. Tonight’s outlook to cover the 1.5-run line looks much more optimistic, considering he won’t be squaring off against a fellow ace.

In fact, the Twins will face an opener from the Mariners’ bullpen before left-handed Tommy Milone comes in to handle the majority of the work on the mound. That’s bad news for Milone, considering Minnesota has excellent numbers against left-handed pitching, including a massive .439 wOBA and .298 ISO in that split over the last 21 days.

More Twins’ goodies, yay! Minnesota has been pounding on the weak this season, going 26-9 against teams with a losing record and have posted a resounding 24-4 record as a home favorite of -175 to -250 over the last three seasons

After starting the season 13-2, Seattle is now 10-28 over the last 38 games. Not to mention, the Mariners moved to 5-26 against teams with a winning record after last night’s loss.

Twins roll big!

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 8 – Seattle Mariners: 2 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, June 7

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

NBA Finals – Game 4: Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors (-4.5, -110/ML: -196)

Here we go! The Golden State Warriors find themselves in a familiar 1-2 hole, a place they have climbed out of before three times en route to a title in previous years. I do think the safer route to go is with the Warriors on the moneyline, but it also means we’re going to have to put up a lot in order to do so.

Golden State will have Klay Thompson back in the lineup, albeit not at 100 percent. We can even make the argument that Steve Kerr knew exactly what he was doing, resting Klay in Game 3 and sacrificing the battle for the war. Regardless, his presence will force Toronto to focus on him, and give the Warriors’ role players more room to operate on the offensive end. Look for DeMarcus Cousins to be more focused and take a vengeful approach to this contest after Marc Gasol thoroughly outplayed him in Game 3.

The Raptors have plenty of firepower that has shown up as the playoffs have gone along, but let’s pump the breaks a bit. Danny Green had an outstanding Game 3, and you have to think the Warriors get all up in his grill. Kawhi Leonard will always be the focal point of the Raptors’ offense but look for Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala to turn up the defensive intensity a bit.

Speaking of Dray, we know he always turns it up a bit when the Warriors’ backs are against the wall. FanDuel Sportsbook has his odds to get a triple-double at +220 tonight. Essentially, they’re saying it’s going to happen – the next closest player is Stephen Curry at +2600. If that’s the case, and Dray gets the trip-dub, the Warriors are probably going to win this game.

How many times have we seen the Warriors look like they were dead in the water, and then pop up right back up with the good stuff? I’d love to take the Warriors at -4.5, but Klay’s status is one that could ultimately determine how close the game is. Let’s play it safe…

* Final Score Prediction: Golden State Warriors: 110 – Toronto Raptors: 107 *


* 2019 MLB Record: 96-78-4 (55.2%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at New York Mets (1.5-run line: +116)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (4-4, 5.33 ERA/1.59 WHIP)
NYM: Jacob deGrom – R (3-5, 3.49 ERA/1.15 WHIP)

Jacob deGrom certainly hasn’t been at his best this season, but tonight’s opponent will certainly be a welcome sight. The right-handed ace has absolutely dominated the Rockies over the course of his career, as the current roster owns a putrid .167 batting average and .189 on-base percentage in 111 plate appearances. I think the most amazing takeaway from this is that deGrom has allowed only one earned run in 30 innings when pitching against the Rockies at Citi Field.

Antonio Senzatela got away with facing a downtrodden Blue Jays offense in his last start, but he did allow nine hits in each of the two outings before that. Not to mention, this guy can’t stop walking people – in the month of May, Senzatela issued 15 free passes over 29 2/3 innings.

deGrom is going to dominate the Rockies once again, as evidenced by the zaftig moneyline given by Vegas. I do think we can steal some money here, going with the 1.5-run line (at +114) as opposed to the massive moneyline which is at -210.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 5 – Colorado Rockies: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 7.5 (-106) – Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (6-1, 1.41 ERA/0.91 WHIP)
MIA: Jose Urena – R (4-6, 4.14 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

Jose Urena has actually pitched very well of late, with a quality start in each of his last five outings. However, the last time he failed to do so came against the same Braves’ team he’ll see tonight – Urena allowed five runs over six innings in that game. In fact, Atlanta has performed quite well against the righty in recent history, with at least four runs against him in each of the last three meetings — five runs against him in each of the last two meetings.

Before scoring one run in Pittsburgh on get-away day yesterday, Atlanta scored 33 runs in the previous four games.

Mike Soroka finally showed signs that he’s human in that last start against the Tigers, allowing four runs (three earned) over 6 2/3 innings. The Marlins also had a one-run get-away day yesterday, but they too went bananas in the previous four games, scoring 42 runs over that span. I’m not saying Soroka is going to get beat over the head, but I do think Miami can put up at least three runs here and add to the total.

All in all, I feel like the 7.5 total is certainly a level that could be reached tonight. Both of these teams have been hot offensively, and Atlanta’s history of success against Urena is well-documented.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 6 – Miami Marlins: 3 *

[10:15 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -144) at San Francisco Giants
LAD: Clayton Kershaw – L (5-0, 3.20 ERA/1.05 WHIP)
SF: Drew Pomeranz – L (1-6, 8.08 ERA/1.87 WHIP)

Clayton Kershaw takes his unbeaten record into Oracle Park tonight against a Giants team that ranks dead-last in wOBA (.268) against left-handed pitching. Yes, this is the same Giants team that allowed Jason Vargas to throw a complete-game shutout against them earlier this week. That, right there, is really all the evidence I need, and I reeeeeally should just end it there.

But I won’t. I’m an elite-level sports betting journalist… or so it says on my Hinge profile.

Kershaw has owned San Francisco over the course of his career, going 22-10 with a 1.70 ERA, six complete games and five shutouts in 44 starts. Not to mention, the current Giants’ lineup has a putrid .198 batting average and .231 on-base percentage against Kershaw in 360 plate appearances. It’s no surprise that the Giants’ 3.0 IRT is the lowest on tonight’s slate.

Drew Pomeranz takes the mound for the Giants and he’s glad the calendar has flipped to June – not that it’ll do him any good. The month of May was an absolute disaster as he wound up with a 19.16 ERA (yes, that is correct), 22 runs allowed in 10 1/3 innings.

The Dodgers haven’t been outstanding against left-handed pitching of late, but seeing Pomeranz should increase their metrics quite a bit. After all, the Dodgers are ninth in wOBA (.332) against lefties this season, but their .307 mark over the last 14 days in that split is just more of a testament to the pitchers they’ve faced.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 1 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 28

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 79-62-4 (56%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins (ML: -111)
SF: Jeff Samardzija – R (2-3, 3.27 ERA/1.17 WHIP)
MIA: Trevor Richards – R (1-5, 4.14 ERA/1.40 WHIP)

Believe it or not, but it’s the Marlins with the highest moneyline increase of the day (+111 to -111). It makes plenty of sense, considering they’ll be taking on a Giants’ team that flew across the country for one of the longest city-to-city trips in baseball.

That long trip won’t do any favors for San Francisco’s arms, who have been absolutely ripped to shreds lately. The Giants have allowed a total of 48 runs over the last five games, and that was all in their spacious hitter-hating Oracle Park. Jeff Samardzija should be able to neutralize some of the hurt, but he’s only been able to make it to the sixth inning in two of his 10 starts this season.

Trevor Richards takes the mound for Miami and he’s been surprisingly serviceable in the month of May, with a 3.38 ERA in four starts. He looked great, albeit against the Tigers, in his last start with a dominating command of the lower strike zone. Richards will look to cap off the month on a solid note against a Giants team that owns the third-worst wOBA (.285) against right-handed pitching.

Logistically, this is a bad spot for the Giants and Vegas has made the line adjustment. Look for the Marlins to grab the series opener against a fatigued team.

* Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins: 5 – San Francisco Giants: 2 *

[7:20 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (ML: -112)
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (4-3, 3.25 ERA/0.99 WHIP)
ATL: Max Fried – L (7-2, 2.88 ERA/1.12 WHIP)

We’re going to get excellent value on the Braves tonight at -112 on the moneyline. Most people may scratch their heads and wonder how with Stephen Strasburg on the mound for the Nationals.

For one, Atlanta has hit Strasburg well over the course of time. The majority of that success comes from Freddie Freeman, who has rocked him for a .354 batting average (17-for-48) with five doubles and four homers. Over Strasburg’s last 11 starts against the Braves, he is 5-4 with a 4.55 ERA.

Also, Strasburg does not pitch well in hot weather. Temperatures in Atlanta should be in the upper-80s/low-90s while he’s on the mound tonight, so look for that to be a detrimental factor. There aren’t any specific numbers on this hindrance for Stras, but coming from the DFS community and knowing a lot of these different nuances about players, this is one that has always stuck in my head.

It also doesn’t help that Washington’s bullpen ranks dead-last in every category imaginable, including losses (13) and ERA (7.12) – the latter of which is a full run more than the second-worst team. Just yesterday, the Nats’ bullpen blew another lead, making it the fourth time that has happened over the last seven games.

Max Fried takes the hill for Atlanta, and he’s been able to get back to his masterful ways over the last two outings. The young lefty has allowed only 10 baserunners and two runs over his last 12 innings of work, getting the win in both outings. Not to mention, the Braves’ offense hooked up him nicely with a total of 21 runs in those two starts. Atlanta is 7-3 in games that Fried has started this season.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 6 – Washington Nationals: 4 *

[10:00 p.m. EST] Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners (ML: -152)
TEX: Adrian Sampson – R (2-3, 4.44 ERA/1.46 WHIP)
SEA: Marco Gonzales – L (5-4, 3.41 ERA/1.33 WHIP)

Now that the Mariners got some looks at Adrian Sampson, they should be able to knock him around a bit tonight. That’s been a common theme, as the righty pitched well against Astros and Pirates the first time around before getting rocked the second time around – and third time, in the Astros’ case.

Seattle will have to wait to face Sampson, though, as Jesse Chavez will serve as the “opener” for the first inning or two in this game. Not to worry, they will get plenty of chances to make it work.

The opposite can be said about the Rangers facing Marco Gonzales, who has a 0.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 12 strikeouts against them this season. In fact, Gonzales had a season-high nine strikeouts against Texas when they visited Seattle back on April 25. Not to mention, the Rangers own the second-highest K-rate (28.8%) against left-handed pitching this season.

Seattle’s lineup looks a little different now with Kyle Seager and Mallex Smith back in action. The Mariners’ bottom of the lineup actually has some sizzle now to it with Smith and Shed Long down at the bottom. That should be able to put some pressure on a Rangers’ team that has allowed the fourth-most stolen bases (33) in baseball. Good news: the Mariners have the second-most stolen bases (38) in baseball.

The early IRT (Mariners: +0.2, Rangers: -0.2) and moneyline (-130 to -152) movements are in favor of the home team, so that’s certainly a positive sign.

* Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners: 5 – Texas Rangers: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, May 23 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 77-54-4 *

[12:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals (moneyline: -153) at New York Mets
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (4-3, 3.32 ERA/0.98 WHIP)
NYM: Steven Matz – L (3-3, 3.96 ERA/1.27 WHIP)

The Nationals have the largest moneyline increase of the day, going from -121 to -153. Stephen Strasburg will be tasked with helping Washington avoid the four-game sweep, and there are more than a few things working in his favor.

For one, Strasburg has thrown five quality starts in his last six outings. His 2.01 ERA in six daytime games and 17 strikeouts against the Mets in 12 2/3 innings have already played out well this season. Strasburg will also benefit from an all right-handed Mets’ lineup today – righties have a dismal .257 on-base percentage against him while striking out 31.4% of the time this season.

Stephen Matz has some rough outings under his belt of late. Not to mention, the Nationals have a solid .343 wOBA and very-low 14.1% K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon, batting No. 1 and No. 3 in the lineup, have put plenty of hurt on Matz in the past.

Looking at the implied run totals (IRT), the Nationals increased +0.2 while the Mets decreased -0.2. That, along with the moneyline increase for Washington, makes it a likely scenario that the four-game sweep will be avoided.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 5 – New York Mets: 2 *

[12:35 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-110) – New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
NYY: Masahiro Tanaka – R (3-3, 3.09 ERA/1.13 WHIP)
BAL: Dylan Bundy – R (2-5, 4.66 ERA/1.27 WHIP)

We might actually have an under in this series for once. After seeing a total of double-digits in three straight games, it’s time for a good pitching performance in the daytime.

Masahiro Tanaka has been outstanding in his last three starts, allowing a 0.78 WHIP and only three runs over 19 1/3 innings of work. The Orioles did plenty of work on the lefty CC Sabathia last night, but they still have a .270 wOBA and 27.1% K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Tanaka will also benefit from having Austin Romine, a much better defensive-minded catcher, behind the plate today.

It’s always a scary proposition taking the under in a game where Dylan Bundy is pitching, but the Yanks are giving Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres the day off today. These two guys have combined to hit 20 homers against the Orioles this season, so luckily, we’ve got that out of the equation. Bundy has actually allowed no earned runs in two of his last three starts.

Since it’s a day game, most people probably won’t even realize that Sanchez and Torres are out of the lineup. Don’t be one of those people and catch some value on the under in this game!

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 5 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers (1.5-run line: +132)
MIA: Trevor Richards – R (1-5, 4.44 ERA/1.38 WHIP)
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (4-4, 3.41 ERA/1.01 WHIP)

This is the Tigers’ highest moneyline odds (-160) of the season – their previous high of -145 was a game they won as well. It makes plenty of sense, though, with Matthew Boyd on the mound. The lefty ran into two tough opponents (vs. HOU, vs. OAK) in his last two starts but that certainly won’t be the case today against the Marlins, who owns league-worst advanced metrics against lefties. Not to mention, Miami has a putrid .223 wOBA and .083 ISO in that split over the last 14 days.

On the other side, Trevor Richards will be pitching for the Marlins – and that’s great news for the Tigers. Richards has allowed two homers in four of his last five starts, so it’s no surprise either that the Marlins have lost all but one of his nine starts this season.

The total jumped up an entire run from 8.0 to 9.0, and you have to believe that’s because of the Tigers and their impending matchup against Richards. Look for Boyd to fry the fish and get the easy win in the process.

* Final Score Prediction: Detroit Tigers: 7 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

MLB & NBA Playoffs Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 21

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

NBA Playoffs Pick: Under 217 (-110) – Milwaukee Bucks (-2.5, 110) at Toronto Raptors

The two highest SK Trend Confidence ratings (both B+) of the night in NBA are the Bucks and the under.

It took two overtimes for the Raptors to finally defeat the Bucks, and also for the total to go over in Game 3 – what a heartbreaker! However, it’s worth noting how big of a swing the spread is from Game 3 to Game 4, making it a five-point jump in a favor of Milwaukee.

One of the main reasons these Bucks have been so successful is their head coach Mike Budenholzer. It’s true, we typically see Milwaukee get out to slow starts, but we also see this team finish strong. Budenholzer has made the necessary adjustments multiple times throughout these playoffs, most notably after the Bucks’ only loss of these playoffs before Sunday night. Milwaukee came out in Game 2 of the second round against the Celtics and wiped them off the map for the entirety of that series.

The Bucks are 10-2 in these playoffs, covering the spread in each one of their wins. I expect them to remind the Raptors who had the NBA’s No. 1 defensive efficiency rating during the regular season. Budenholzer should have more adjustments to bottle up a fatigued Kawhi Leonard, who is dealing with a slight leg injury.

#FearTheDeer! #BuckNasty!

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks: 102 – Toronto Raptors: 88 *

* 2019 MLB Record: 73-48-4 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-104) – New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
NYY: Domingo German – R (8-1, 2.50 ERA/0.95 WHIP)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-5, 5.58 ERA/1.29 WHIP)

Whatever the Yankees are doing against David Hess, they need to keep on doing it. In his last two starts against the Evil Empire, Hess has allowed seven homers in 11 innings of work – yikes! Once Hess leaves the game, it doesn’t get any better, as the Orioles’ entire team has allowed an MLB-high 97 homers in 47 games.

OK, great. So, we know where most of the offense is coming from.

The Orioles will likely have a tougher time against Domingo German, but it is their second time seeing him over the last six days. German’s last two road starts (@SF, @TB) haven’t been great, as he’s allowed 10 hits, three walks and seven runs over 11 innings of work. Not to mention, Baltimore has done a fine job offensively against New York in their matchups this season.

Clearly, the way to go here would be betting the Yankees, but their moneyline (-250) and 1.5-run line (-162) odds are a bit pricey. Six of the 10 Orioles-Yankees matchups this season have gone over the total, and we’re looking at a situation where it’ll be seven of 11 at the end of the night.

The SK Trend Confidence rating has an A-grade for the over at 10.5, which is the highest grade of any game on today’s MLB schedule. Luckily for us, the total is actually sitting at 9.5, so that speaks heavy volumes to how many runs we should see tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 10 – Baltimore: 4 *

[7:07 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-110) – Boston Red Sox (1.5-run line: +100) at Toronto Blue Jays
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (4-2, 4.89 ERA/1.43 WHIP)
TOR: Marcus Stroman – R (1-6, 2.95 ERA/1.29 WHIP)

Speaking of high grades, the Red Sox and the total going under all both get a B+ for tonight’s game. We’ve got plenty of reasons to believe so.

For one, the Blue Jays’ offense has been brutal lately, especially against left-handed pitching. Against southpaws over the last 14 days, Toronto has an anemic .197 wOBA and .067 ISO. Overall this season against lefties, they rank third-worst in MLB with a .268 wOBA and .107 ISO.

Not only has their offense been bad, but the Blue Jays have been even worse for Marcus Stroman. The righty’s numbers aren’t bad at all, but his team has scored three runs or fewer (mostly fewer) in seven of his 10 starts this season.

On the other side, the Red Sox have won each of the last seven games that Eduardo Rodriguez has started, with six of those wins coming by two runs or more. Despite losing two games to the Astros over the weekend, the Red Sox have seemingly turned the corner with a 14-5 record over the last 19 games.

It’s good news for the under on this game, as the total dropped from 9.0 to 8.5. The Blue Jays’ IRT dropped -0.4, while the Red Sox move slightly downward to -0.1.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 6 – Toronto Blue Jays: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-126) – Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (3-1, 2.25 ERA/0.92 WHIP)
DET: Spencer Turnbull – R (2-3, 2.40 ERA/1.25 WHIP)

The moneyline number for this game is quite interesting, considering Caleb Smith is probably the best pitcher in baseball that no one gives a damn about. Nonetheless, Tigers’ starting pitcher Spencer Turnbull should have a solid outing tonight — Hell, mostly everyone going against the Marlins does. All in all, I think the most likely outcome here is the total going under 7.5 runs.

Let’s start with Smith, who has allowed two runs or fewer in all but one of his eight starts this season – that one misnomer, he allowed three runs. Because the Marlins’ offense is so atrocious, the lefty has had to do literally everything imaginable to keep this team in ball games. In fact, six of Smith’s eight starts this season have had seven total runs or fewer scored in the entire game.

Not to be outdone, Turnbull has only allowed five earned runs over his last six starts. As mentioned before, the Marlins’ offense is terrible, and over the last 14 days, they have a .255 wOBA and 30.3% K-rate against right-handed pitching. Overall this season, Miami ranks near- or dead-last in almost every advanced metric against right-handed pitching.

This game will likely come down to the bullpens late, but I’ll say that the Tigers get the win, based on the awkward moneyline in their favor.

* Final Score Prediction: Detroit Tigers: 3 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 14

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 56-38-4 (60%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -144) at Detroit Tigers
HOU: Wade Miley – L (3-2, 3.18 ERA)
DET: Ryan Carpenter – L (0-1, 10.80 ERA)

Ryan Carpenter doesn’t have much MLB experience, but it hasn’t been good. After getting ripped for six runs in five innings during his season debut on Thursday, that upped Carpenter’s WHIP to 1.72 and an opposing batting average of .356 over 27 1/3 career innings of work. Yikes!

We always look at these IRT increases because they tell a story about the game before the first pitch has even been thrown. The Astros rank in the top three of nearly every advanced metric against left-handed pitching. Hence, why they had the highest IRT (5.6) at the open and now the biggest increase (+0.7) moving them to 6.3 – a full run more than three teams tied for second-most at 5.2.

Wade Miley should get plenty of run support from the Houston offense, which is always a benefit pitching for this team. The Astros have won the lefty’s last four starts by a combined score of 32-9, with all of them coming by two runs or more. Miley has four quality starts in his last five outings, and in the only misnomer, he went 5 2/3 innings and allowed one run.

The Astros are going to tear these Tigers apart, as evidenced by the massive -144 juice on the 1.5-run line.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 11 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 – Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins
TB: Charlie Morton – R (3-0, 2.64 ERA)
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (3-0, 2.11 ERA)

Both of these pitchers have been outstanding this season with a sub-three ERA and we’ve got the advanced metrics to prove how effective they’ll be tonight.

The Rays have the highest K-rate (30.6%) against left-handed pitching, while Caleb Smith has a 0.89 WHIP and 56 strikeouts over 42 2/3 innings. Any questions?

The Marlins have the highest K-rate (27.1%) with the lowest wOBA (.263), wRC+ (65) and ISO (.089) against right-handed pitching. Charlie Morton has been more hittable than Smith, but he’s allowed two runs or fewer in all but one of his eight starts this season. It never gets old ripping on Miami’s offense, which has posted two runs or fewer in eight of its last nine games.

I get it, taking the under on 6.5 runs will be about two-to-three hours of nervous reckoning, but you should have plenty of confidence with Morton and Smith going toe-to-toe.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 3 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals (-138 ML, 1.5-run line: +132)
TEX: Shelby Miller – R (1-2, 7.48 ERA)
KC: Danny Duffy – L (1-1, 3.06 ERA)

It’s quite telling to see the Royals in that grouping of teams tied for the second-highest IRT (5.2) on the slate. There’s a good reason, though, as the Rangers will have Shelby Miller on the mound. Miller does have a massive 1.92 WHIP and Kansas City has above-average advanced metrics against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. KC can beat up on Miller early and then get to the Texas bullpen, which has the sixth-highest xFIP (4.64) in all of baseball over the last 14 days.

Danny Duffy gets himself a fantastic matchup here too, as the Rangers have the third-highest K-rate (28.4%) against left-handed pitching this season. Not only that, but Texas is striking out at a 34.9% clip against lefties over the last 14 days.

I could go either way here on the moneyline or 1.5-run line with KC. You don’t have to risk much on the moneyline and it’s a nice little plus-score on the 1.5-run line.

* Final Score Prediction: Kansas City Royals: 7 – Texas Rangers: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 7

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 46-33-3 (58.4%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (-1.5, -130) at Baltimore Orioles
BOS: Hector Rodriguez – R (0-2, 3.72 ERA)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-4, 5.34 ERA)

The defending champs had themselves a big dip in production for the series opener last night. After scoring a total of 55 runs in the previous seven games, the Red Sox managed to put up only one run against a talented young lefty in John Means on Monday night. Don’t expect that slump to last too long for Boston, especially with David Hess going for Baltimore. In fact, the current Red Sox roster has a combined .317 batting average, 1.088 OPS and six homers in 66 career plate appearances against Hess.

Boston will be going with a bullpen-by-committee game and that has been a productive unit of late, with the fifth-best SIERA (skill-interactive earned run average) and seventh-best xFIP (expected fielding-independent pitching) in baseball over the last seven days. The Orioles’ offense hasn’t been great as usual, scoring three runs or fewer in six of the last nine games.

I’m looking for the Red Sox to put one of their patented poundings on the Orioles at Camden Yards, just as they have done so many times in the past. The SK Trend Confidence has the Red Sox on the 1.5 run-line as one of its favorite plays of the night.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 9 – Baltimore Orioles: 3 *

[7:40 p.m. EST] Under 8 (-108) – Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (3-1, 3.45 ERA)
MIL: Adrian Houser – R (0-1, 8.44 ERA)

We’re seeing a lot of unders come out in recent Brewers and Nationals games of late. In fact, Brew Crew games have gone under the total in six of the last nine, while the Nats have suffered that fate in five of the last seven.

I’m banking on the Washington side of things to carry us to victory tonight, with Stephen Strasburg’s recent performances and the number of injuries piling up in the Nationals lineup. Strasburg has a 0.78 WHIP, 29 strikeouts and only three runs allowed over his last 21 2/3 innings of work and the current Brewers lineup owns a .197 lifetime batting average against him. Meanwhile, a Nats lineup that is missing Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Trea Turner and Ryan Zimmermann has now scored three runs or fewer in nine of the last 11 games.

It may not look great on the surface for the Brewers with Adrian Houser starting on the mound, but that’s just for show. Milwaukee will be going the “opener” route, opting to use the struggling Freddy Peralta at another point during the game. If needed, I’m sure Bernie the Brewer could pitch effectively tonight against this struggling Nats offense.

All in all, Strasburg should be the one dictating the low-scoring game with another dominant outing. Look for the Brewers and their combination of pitchers to get the job done as well. The SK Trend Confidence rating has the under and the Brewers moneyline as two of its favorite plays of the night.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 3 – Washington Nationals: 2 *

[8:00 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 (-110) – Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (3-0, 2.00 ERA)
CHC: Jon Lester – L (2-1, 1.73 ERA)

It’s going to be a frigid one at Wrigley Field tonight, with temperatures in the mid-40s and the wind blowing in from left-center field at 12 mph, as two talented southpaws take the mound.

Caleb Smith has quietly been putting together an All-Star-level start to the season with a 3-0 record, 2.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 45 strikeouts over 36 innings. In fact, Smith has qualified for a quality start in each of his last five outings.

Jon Lester has been simply magnificent this season, allowing two runs or fewer in all five starts – one being cut short due to a hamstring injury. Nonetheless, Lester had his best start of the season in his last outing, 35 miles away from where he grew up, tossing seven innings of one-hit shutout ball while striking out eight Mariners in Seattle. Also, the Marlins offense ranks in the bottom five of most advanced metrics overall and against left-handed pitching.

The 6.5-total, weather and an excellent duo of starting pitchers lend itself to plenty of pessimism for runs going up on the scoreboard tonight. Should be a fun game to watch, though. You know, if you hate offense.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 2 – Miami Marlins: 1 *

[8:40 p.m. EST] Under 10.5 (-120) – San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
SF: Madison Bumgarner – L (1-4, 3.92 ERA)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (2-1, 4.03 ERA)

It’s always a risky proposition to take the under at Coors Field but we’re trusting the SK Trend Confidence rating on this game, which has one of the highest grades for both teams here. And it’s interesting, considering both teams have posted a ton of overs lately – the Giants in eight of the last 10 and Rockies in nine of the last 11.

Madison Bumgarner takes the mound for San Francisco, and while his 1-4 record doesn’t look great, he does have a 1.10 WHIP and solid numbers against Colorado. In fact, MadBum posted his only win of the season against the Rockies back on April 13.

Antonio Senzatela has allowed three runs or fewer in three of his four starts this season. Even better news is that Senzatela is 5-0 with a 3.36 ERA in eight appearances (six starts) against the Giants since 2016.

We might be cutting it close here on the total, but we’re placing a ton of faith in the system this evening – and you should too.

* Final Score Prediction: Colorado Rockies: 5 – San Francisco Giants: 4 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, May 6

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 45-32-3 (58.4%) *

[6:10 p.m. EST] Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (-1.5, -130)
CHW: Ivan Nova – R (0-3, 8.33 ERA)
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (4-1, 2.45 ERA)

It’s been a rough start to 2019 for Ivan Nova, to say the least, allowing 48 hits and 29 runs over 31 1/3 innings. Things won’t be getting any easier as he’ll face the Indians, who have absolutely destroyed Nova lifetime. In fact, the Tribe’s current roster owns a combined .379 batting average, .446 on-base percentage and 1.082 OPS against him in 73 career plate appearances.

Trevor Bauer has suddenly become somewhat of a generous pitcher, allowing 10 walks over his last 15 innings of work. Luckily, he has handled this White Sox with relative ease since 2016, going 5-2 with a 3.03 ERA in 10 outings. Not to mention, the current Pale Hose roster owns a combined .192 batting average, .242 on-base percentage and 32.6% K-rate in 175 career plate appearances against Bauer.

Because of the history with these two starting pitchers against their respective opponents, bettors will get much more value on the Indians with the 1.5 run-line at -130, as opposed to the -250 moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 7 – Chicago White Sox: 3 *

[7:07 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-122) – Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
MIN: Martin Perez – L (4-0, 3.41 ERA)
TOR: Marcus Stroman – R (1-4, 2.20 ERA)

Both of these starting pitchers have had great success this season, despite the traditional numbers not looking all that glamorous. Success, of course, meaning keeping opposing runs off the scoreboard.

In fact, Martin Perez has allowed one run or fewer in three of his last four outings, while Stroman has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his seven starts this season. Stroman’s only misnomer came in his last outing at Anaheim, but he’s a crafty veteran that rarely has two bad outings in a row. Perez should benefit from facing a Blue Jays team that ranks in the bottom five of most advanced metrics against left-handed pitching.

Also helping the under this game is the fact that Toronto has scored three runs or fewer in five of its last six games.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 4 – Minnesota Twins: 3*

[8:05 p.m. EST] Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs (-1.5, -120)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara – R (1-3, 4.86 ERA)
CHC: Cole Hamels – L (3-0, 3.19 ERA)

The Cubs just completed a three-game sweep over the rival Cardinals, so that brings their winning streak to seven games, and they are now 16-4 over their last 20. It shouldn’t be too hard for Chicago to continue their dominant run, facing a Miami team that has scored three runs or fewer in 18 of its last 23 games.

Cole Hamels takes the ball for the Cubbies and he’ll go up against a Marlins team that ranks in the bottom five of most advanced metrics against left-handed pitching. The former World Series MVP has been his usual dominant self, with a 1.09 WHIP, and that’s even going against tough competition like the Brewers, Dodgers, Mariners and Rangers. One of those starts, though, was versus this stagnant Miami offense and Hamels pitched seven innings of shutout ball to get the win back on April 17.

Bettors should feel quite confident going with the Cubs on the 1.5 run-line, considering Hamels has managed to get an average of eight runs of support in his six starts this season. Although the game total sits at seven, I expect Chicago to post all the runs on the scoreboard tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 5 – Miami Marlins: 0 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, May 3

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 40-29-2 (58%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5, -146) at Baltimore Orioles
TB: Tyler Glasnow – R (5-0, 1.75 ERA)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-2, 6.75 ERA)

We’ve got ourselves a good ole fashioned mismatch. Tyler Glasnow of the Rays has been virtually unhittable this season, with a microscopic 0.94 WHIP and allowing two runs or fewer in each of his six starts. Glasnow got the win against these same Orioles a little more than two weeks ago, allowing seven hits and two runs while striking out three over seven innings.

The Orioles are 3-9 over their last 12 games, with all of those wins coming against the White Sox. Dan Straily takes the hill at home for Baltimore and it has not been pretty for him this season, despite pitching a limited amount of innings. A 1.66 WHIP is what Straily has coughed up over 18 2/3 innings of work (five appearances/four starts), and it doesn’t help either that the Orioles’ bullpen has the worst ERA (6.27) in all of baseball.

Tampa’s offense gets a major park upgrade going into Camden Yards and did score 17 runs at home against Baltimore in its three-game series in mid-April. It’s quite intriguing to see the Rays have the highest IRT (5.8) of any team on tonight’s slate, so look for the Rays to continue putting the hurt on Orioles’ pitching in this matchup.

Although it’s a massive amount (-146) to lay on the 1.5-run line, I feel like Vegas is already telling us how big of an ass kicking this is going to be. I have enough confidence in the Rays to win by multiple runs and not be forced to lay -230 on the moneyline. Not to mention, Tampa’s moneyline increase from -190 to -230 is the highest on the entire slate.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 8 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5, +118)
WSH: Jeremy Hellickson – R (2-0, 5.82 ERA)
PHI: Jerad Eickhoff – R (1-1, 2.12 ERA)

These injuries are starting to take a toll on the Nationals’ offense, which has scored three runs or less in six of their last seven games. Yesterday, they had a golden opportunity to put a world of hurt on a weak pitcher, Dakota Hudson of the Cardinals, and looked like a bunch of damn fools in the process – granted, they got the win (which I called), but it was not pretty. Already missing Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon, Washington was without Juan Soto yesterday for the second game in a row, and there’s no word yet on whether he’ll be in Friday’s lineup.

If Washington couldn’t lay into Hudson, tonight will seem even more difficult against Philly’s Jerad Eickhoff, who has been great since returning from injuries which caused him to miss nearly all of 2018. At Citizens Bank Park this season (vs. MIA, vs. NYM), Eickhoff has allowed only five hits, one walk and no runs while striking out 12 over 11 innings. With or without Soto, I can certainly see the Nationals struggling in any regard against the underrated righty.

One thing I really like about the Phils tonight is their leadoff hitter, Andrew McCutchen. In 19 career plate appearance against Hellickson, McCutchen is 4-for-12 with seven walks – that means he is very comfortable in the batter’s box against him. If McCutchen is getting on base, you can expect the rest of the order to follow suit. The Nationals’ bullpen also has a 5.87 ERA, which ranks second-worst in all of baseball.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 6 – Washington Nationals: 3 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers (-1.5, +120)
TOR: Trent Thornton – R (0-3, 5.08 ERA)
TEX: Mike Minor – L (3-2, 2.88 ERA)

Mike Minor has a 0.91 WHIP and is holding opposing batters to a .179 batting average. Not a good sign for the Blue Jays, who have the fourth-worst power metrics (ISO: .112) and seventh-worst weighted on-base average (wOBA: .287) against left-handed pitching this season. Minor is coming off a dazzling 13-strikeout performance over seven innings in Seattle and, in his last two home starts (vs. HOU, vs. LAA), has only allowed a combined eight hits, four walks and no runs while striking out 14 over 16 innings. Not to mention, Toronto played a very late game in Anaheim last night and will actually lose two hours of sleep time crossing two time zones into Arlington today.

Before his last outing, the Blue Jays had lost five straight games that Trent Thornton started. Tonight, he’ll have the displeasure of facing a Rangers team that is averaging 6.3 runs per game at home this season – tops in MLB.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 7 – Toronto Blue Jays: 2 *

[8:40 p.m. EST] Over 11 – Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
ARZ: Robbie Ray – L (1-1, 4.18 ERA)
COL: Tyler Anderson – L (0-2, 11.34 ERA)

The Rockies’ offense is clicking like no other at the moment, hanging 11 runs in back-to-back days at Milwaukee. In fact, Colorado has now scored at least seven runs in six of its last eight games. That’s great news for us bettors on the over, getting a hot offense against a pitcher they have clobbered historically. Robbie Ray has only won twice in 10 starts against the Rockies since 2016, and he allowed at least four runs in each of those outings. That’s actually a soft intro because Colorado has posted four runs or more in five of his last seven starts against them. The Rockies’ current roster has a combined .353 batting average, 1.095 OPS and 11 home runs in 153 plate appearances against Ray.

If that wasn’t enough, Tyler Anderson and his 11.34 ERA/2.16 WHIP take the mound for the Rockies this evening. All four of his starts have resulted in the game total reaching double-digits and, in two starts (vs. LAD, vs. WSH) at Coors Field this season, Anderson has allowed a combined 13 hits, six walks and 11 runs over seven innings.

I normally don’t condone grown men wearing baseball gloves to games, but if you’re sitting in the Coors Field outfield tonight, this might be the lone exception.

* Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks: 9 – Colorado Rockies: 8 *