Tag: Milwaukee Bucks

MLB & NBA Playoffs Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 21

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

NBA Playoffs Pick: Under 217 (-110) – Milwaukee Bucks (-2.5, 110) at Toronto Raptors

The two highest SK Trend Confidence ratings (both B+) of the night in NBA are the Bucks and the under.

It took two overtimes for the Raptors to finally defeat the Bucks, and also for the total to go over in Game 3 – what a heartbreaker! However, it’s worth noting how big of a swing the spread is from Game 3 to Game 4, making it a five-point jump in a favor of Milwaukee.

One of the main reasons these Bucks have been so successful is their head coach Mike Budenholzer. It’s true, we typically see Milwaukee get out to slow starts, but we also see this team finish strong. Budenholzer has made the necessary adjustments multiple times throughout these playoffs, most notably after the Bucks’ only loss of these playoffs before Sunday night. Milwaukee came out in Game 2 of the second round against the Celtics and wiped them off the map for the entirety of that series.

The Bucks are 10-2 in these playoffs, covering the spread in each one of their wins. I expect them to remind the Raptors who had the NBA’s No. 1 defensive efficiency rating during the regular season. Budenholzer should have more adjustments to bottle up a fatigued Kawhi Leonard, who is dealing with a slight leg injury.

#FearTheDeer! #BuckNasty!

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks: 102 – Toronto Raptors: 88 *

* 2019 MLB Record: 73-48-4 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-104) – New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
NYY: Domingo German – R (8-1, 2.50 ERA/0.95 WHIP)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-5, 5.58 ERA/1.29 WHIP)

Whatever the Yankees are doing against David Hess, they need to keep on doing it. In his last two starts against the Evil Empire, Hess has allowed seven homers in 11 innings of work – yikes! Once Hess leaves the game, it doesn’t get any better, as the Orioles’ entire team has allowed an MLB-high 97 homers in 47 games.

OK, great. So, we know where most of the offense is coming from.

The Orioles will likely have a tougher time against Domingo German, but it is their second time seeing him over the last six days. German’s last two road starts (@SF, @TB) haven’t been great, as he’s allowed 10 hits, three walks and seven runs over 11 innings of work. Not to mention, Baltimore has done a fine job offensively against New York in their matchups this season.

Clearly, the way to go here would be betting the Yankees, but their moneyline (-250) and 1.5-run line (-162) odds are a bit pricey. Six of the 10 Orioles-Yankees matchups this season have gone over the total, and we’re looking at a situation where it’ll be seven of 11 at the end of the night.

The SK Trend Confidence rating has an A-grade for the over at 10.5, which is the highest grade of any game on today’s MLB schedule. Luckily for us, the total is actually sitting at 9.5, so that speaks heavy volumes to how many runs we should see tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 10 – Baltimore: 4 *

[7:07 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-110) – Boston Red Sox (1.5-run line: +100) at Toronto Blue Jays
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (4-2, 4.89 ERA/1.43 WHIP)
TOR: Marcus Stroman – R (1-6, 2.95 ERA/1.29 WHIP)

Speaking of high grades, the Red Sox and the total going under all both get a B+ for tonight’s game. We’ve got plenty of reasons to believe so.

For one, the Blue Jays’ offense has been brutal lately, especially against left-handed pitching. Against southpaws over the last 14 days, Toronto has an anemic .197 wOBA and .067 ISO. Overall this season against lefties, they rank third-worst in MLB with a .268 wOBA and .107 ISO.

Not only has their offense been bad, but the Blue Jays have been even worse for Marcus Stroman. The righty’s numbers aren’t bad at all, but his team has scored three runs or fewer (mostly fewer) in seven of his 10 starts this season.

On the other side, the Red Sox have won each of the last seven games that Eduardo Rodriguez has started, with six of those wins coming by two runs or more. Despite losing two games to the Astros over the weekend, the Red Sox have seemingly turned the corner with a 14-5 record over the last 19 games.

It’s good news for the under on this game, as the total dropped from 9.0 to 8.5. The Blue Jays’ IRT dropped -0.4, while the Red Sox move slightly downward to -0.1.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 6 – Toronto Blue Jays: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-126) – Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (3-1, 2.25 ERA/0.92 WHIP)
DET: Spencer Turnbull – R (2-3, 2.40 ERA/1.25 WHIP)

The moneyline number for this game is quite interesting, considering Caleb Smith is probably the best pitcher in baseball that no one gives a damn about. Nonetheless, Tigers’ starting pitcher Spencer Turnbull should have a solid outing tonight — Hell, mostly everyone going against the Marlins does. All in all, I think the most likely outcome here is the total going under 7.5 runs.

Let’s start with Smith, who has allowed two runs or fewer in all but one of his eight starts this season – that one misnomer, he allowed three runs. Because the Marlins’ offense is so atrocious, the lefty has had to do literally everything imaginable to keep this team in ball games. In fact, six of Smith’s eight starts this season have had seven total runs or fewer scored in the entire game.

Not to be outdone, Turnbull has only allowed five earned runs over his last six starts. As mentioned before, the Marlins’ offense is terrible, and over the last 14 days, they have a .255 wOBA and 30.3% K-rate against right-handed pitching. Overall this season, Miami ranks near- or dead-last in almost every advanced metric against right-handed pitching.

This game will likely come down to the bullpens late, but I’ll say that the Tigers get the win, based on the awkward moneyline in their favor.

* Final Score Prediction: Detroit Tigers: 3 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

MLB & NBA Playoffs Betting Value Picks for Friday, May 17

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

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NBA Playoffs Pick: Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5, -110)

It took the Toronto Raptors three quarters to finally show themselves but did come through for us in relinquishing the game on Wednesday night. Just as we saw, the Milwaukee Bucks are a more well-rounded team from top to bottom and that’ll be more evident tonight.

The Bucks shot 25% from 3-point range, while Kyle Lowry of the Raptors went 7-for-9 from behind the arc — and Milwaukee still won. Believe me, neither of those will happen tonight, and the Bucks will coast to victory.

SK Trend Confidence rating believes the Bucks with the 6.5-point spread is the best value pick of the evening. Basically, you don’t even need to waste all that money ($270 to win $100) betting the Bucks outright when you can just sit back and watch them easily devour the Raptors.

– – –

* 2019 MLB Record: 66-39-4 (62.9%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 8 (-116) – Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals (moneyline: -155)
CHC: Cole Hamels – L (3-0, 3.08 ERA/1.07 WHIP)
WSH: Max Scherzer – R (2-4, 3.64 ERA/1.15 WHIP)

The Nationals got a nice +0.5 boost to their implied run total (IRT) and their moneyline odds increased from -124 to -155, which is third-highest on the slate. Since Gerardo Parra came to DC, the Nats’ offense got a jolt of energy and more help is on the way with Trea Turner returning off the injured list tonight, while Juan Soto and Anthony Rendon have also returned in recent days. Parra won’t be in the starting lineup tonight against the lefty, but he could have an impact pinch hitting later in the game.

Max Scherzer is on the mound for the Nationals and it’s a bit surprising that they’ve only won two of his nine starts this season. Look for that trend to get bucked as the Cubs’ current roster has a combined 38.6% K-rate in 101 career plate appearances against Scherzer – Javy Baez and Kris Bryant have struck out a combined 14 times in 21 plate appearances – Yikes!

Cole Hamels goes for the Cubbies, and he’s done a fine job of limiting damage from opposing teams. The veteran lefty has been slightly worse away from Wrigley Field, allowing an opposing batting average of 66 points higher on the road than at home. I don’t think Hamels gets absolutely rocked tonight, but we could certainly see a score similar to the one Chicago lost by in Cincinnati last night.

It’s also interesting to note that Scherzer has a K-prop of 9.5 tonight, with +120 juice on the over. I’ve found myself gravitating more to these props lately, so that’s just some side action to throw on top.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 5 – Chicago Cubs: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics (1.5-run line: -116) at Detroit Tigers
OAK: Frankie Montas – R (4-2, 2.78 ERA/1.26 WHIP)
DET: Daniel Norris – L (2-1, 2.63 ERA/1.41 WHIP)

It has certainly been a rough stretch for the Tigers, allowing 8.2 runs per game over their last nine contests. Yesterday’s 17-3 thumping appears like it could happen all over again, as evidenced by the +0.6 IRT and moneyline (-145 to -180) increases for the A’s — both are the highest on tonight’s slate.

Oakland has Top-5 numbers against left-handed pitching this season in nearly every advanced-metric and owns a .365 ISO over the last 14 days — the highest for any split on tonight’s slate. That’s all good news, considering Detroit’s bullpen has pitched a whopping 35 innings over the last seven days – eight more innings than any other team over that span. Look for Daniel Norris to possibly get extended a little more, and rocked in the process.

Although he’s been allowing too many baserunners lately for my liking, Frankie Montas is an absolute stud. He gets a fantastic matchup against a Tigers’ team near or dead-last in most advanced metrics against right-handed pitching. Looking at their numbers over the last 14 days in that split, it doesn’t get much better, as they own a putrid .256 wOBA and 25.4% K-rate.

The Tigers have lost the last four games by a combined deficit of 32 runs, and their last 11 losses have been by two runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland A’s: 10 – Detroit Tigers: 3 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels (1.5-run line: +124)
KC: Brad Keller – R (2-4, 4.47 ERA/1.43 WHIP)
LAA: Matt Harvey – R (1-3, 6.69 ERA/1.41 WHIP)

It was a good start to the season for Brad Keller, but things have certainly taken a turn for the worst. Keller has allowed at least five runs in three of his last four starts with the only misnomer coming against the Tigers, who are the worst hitting team in the American League.

The Angels received a +0.5 IRT increase, which is tied for second-highest on tonight’s slate. Makes sense, considering their outstanding .407 wOBA, .238 ISO and 14.7% K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Over the course of the season against righties, the Angels rank first in K-rate (15.7%), second in wRC+ (120) and fourth in wOBA (.346).

Matt Harvey has looked much better of late, allowing two runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. One of those outings came against the Royals, going seven innings and allowing two hits, three walks and one run while striking out five. KC’s offense has not been at its best of late, scoring one run or fewer four of the last five games and in five of the last seven.

Keller’s last four starts have all been Royals’ defeats by three runs or more, while the team has suffered some convincing losses already this week. Let’s take a chance here and get plus-money on our bet for this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 7 – Kansas City Royals: 3 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-128) – Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (-158)
PIT: Jordan Lyles – R (3-1, 2.09 ERA/1.09 WHIP)
SD: Joey Lucchesi – L (3-2, 4.57 ERA/1.35 WHIP)

I almost feel like we can take last night’s game preview, copy/paste and replace the pitcher’s names. Don’t worry, I won’t.

Not much changed with the Pirates and their struggles against left-handed pitching on Thursday, as they posted a total of two runs against Eric Lauer and the Padres’ bullpen. Pittsburgh faces another lefty, Joey Lucchesi, and he comes into tonight’s start in better form than Lauer did. Certain trends have already followed teams from the beginning of this season, and this one is no different for the Pirates – they just simply can’t hit lefties well.

The Padres do have the third-highest IRT (+0.4) and moneyline (-130 to -158) increases on the slate, which is interesting. They have well below-average advanced metrics against right-handed pitching and Jordan Lyles has been quite solid this season, allowing two runs or fewer in all but one of his seven starts this season.

We can look to the first five innings total of 4.5 when figuring out how this game will play out. There’s a huge -160 amount of juice on the under there, so look for the Padres to capitalize on the Pirates’ bullpen late once again. Not trying to play God here, just looking at the numbers!

* Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres: 4 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

MLB & NBA Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 59-38-4 (61%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -230) at Detroit Tigers
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (6-1, 2.51 ERA/0.82 WHIP)
DET: Gregory Soto – L (0-1, 15.75 ERA/2.75 WHIP)

So, this is awkward. Justin Verlander will return to the only MLB city he called home before accepting a trade to Houston back in 2017.

Verlander has been absolutely phenomenal this season, allowing one run or fewer in six of his nine starts, while Detroit’s offense ranks near the bottom of MLB in nearly every advanced metric against right-handed pitching. Over the last 14 days, the Tigers have well below-average numbers in the same split.

This just isn’t going to end well for Detroit, losers of the first two games in this series by a combined score of 19-5. Houston’s offense is rocking and rolling over the last four games, with a total of 45 runs – the same amount as Miami has scored since April 21. Not to mention, the Astros’ offense ranks near the top of MLB in nearly every advanced metric, while owning absolutely gorgeous numbers against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

I talked about it yesterday, but it’s quite telling when you see a team with zaftig juice on the 1.5-run line. The Astros are listed at -230 in that regard, in comparison to the -350 moneyline odds. Also, the IRTs for both teams are unlike anything you’ll ever see, as the Astros are at 6.7 while the Tigers are at 3.5 – that type of differential is a once-in-a-lifetime sort of thing.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 10 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[8:00 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 (-120) – Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals
TEX: Mike Minor – L (3-3, 2.68 ERA/1.04 WHIP)
KC: Jorge Lopez – R (0-4, 6.07 ERA/1.49 WHIP)

The highest SK Trend Confidence rating of the night in MLB is the under in this game, and that makes plenty of sense with Mike Minor on the mound for the Rangers. The made-over lefty has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts and even held his own against the hottest lineup in baseball during his last start against the Astros.

KC has not fared well against left-handed pitching this season, owning the fourth-worst weighted on-base average (wOBA: .281) in that split. Not to mention, things haven’t gotten any better over the last 14 days.

While Jorge Lopez has given up a decent number of runs, he has gone at least six innings in five of the last seven outings. The Rangers’ offense hasn’t been particularly great against right-handed pitching, with a combined .274 wOBA over the last 14 days.

Minor is clearly the better pitcher here, so I expect him to get the win. Lopez can at least hold his own for a while and not let this thing get out of hand.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 6 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

[8:30 p.m. EST] Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5, -115)

We’ve got some NBA action for the people tonight! The top SK Trend Confidence rating is on the Bucks with the 6.5-point spread, considering they have covered eight of their nine games during the playoffs. I typically don’t bet many NBA games prior to tip-off, opting for the live bets, but tonight is a special occasion.

The Bucks’ roster is miles ahead of the Raptors, who are coming off an emotionally-draining seven-games series against the 76ers. Just as we saw last night in the Trail Blazers-Warriors matchup, Portland wasn’t able to muster enough energy for its new opponent. There’s something to be said about carrying over the same intensity from one series to another – it’s remarkably tough and takes time to make the necessary adjustments.

When looking at Toronto’s roster, there’s not much there. Kawhi Leonard is basically all the Raptors have working for them, and that was evident towards the end of that last series. Sure, Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry are fine players, but it didn’t even look like they wanted to touch the ball down the stretch of Game 7 against Philly.

Look for the Bucks to neutralize Kawhi and make the other role-playing Raptors beat them. Bucks big! #FearTheDear

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks: 102 – Toronto Raptors: 82 *

NBA and NCAAM Betting Preview for Thursday, March 28

Over the next few days, Spread Knowledge will combine the two levels of hoops into one article. It’s all about time consumption in these trying times, folks. The NBA usually only has a few games on the Thursday night schedule but, for whatever reason, they’re trying to go head-to-head against the NCAA Tournament. And this sucks because the NBA game has some excellent matchups tonight with playoff positioning at the forefront. Nonetheless, it’s a great night to make a butt groove in your favorite seat in the house.

Let’s take a look at the top hoops picks from the Spread Knowledge system this evening…

NBA BETTING PREVIEW

[8:05 p.m. EST] Los Angeles Clippers (-9/+342 ML) at Milwaukee Bucks

It’s definitely a longshot but there’s some nice value in taking the LA Clippers, who have won 11 of their last 12 games. The Milwaukee Bucks have won four of their last five, but find themselves in a peculiar spot heading into the NBA Playoffs. Milwaukee owns a four-game lead for the top seed in the Eastern Conference, but injuries to Malcolm Brogdon, Pau Gasol and Nikola Mirotic may force Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer to be somewhat judicious with the minutes of his key players. Giannis Antetokounmpo has already stated that he wants no part of this limitation, but it’s important to remember that the playoffs are what really matters here. The Clippers are safely in the playoffs, but they’re not too far away from grabbing home-court advantage for the first round. You could make the argument that LA has more at stake tonight and a nine-point spread is somewhat disrespectful to a team as talented as this.

The Spread Knowledge system likes LA on the moneyline, but you could also take the easier route and bet them at +9.

[8:05 p.m. EST] Under 217 – Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets (-208)

The Houston Rockets have defeated the Denver Nuggets in nine of their last 10 meetings, and the Spread Knowledge system likes them to make it 10 of 11. Houston still has an outside chance of getting the two-seed in the Western Conference, but it’ll need a bit of a collapse from Denver down the stretch – and that doesn’t seem likely at this point. Still, the Rockets are clamoring to get that three-seed and avoid the Golden State Warriors before the Western Conference Finals.

Not only does the SK system like the Rockets in this game tonight, but it is also quite fond of the under on the total. And for good reason, as Houston games have gone under the total in 11 of the last 13 while Denver games have suffered the same fate in 16 of its last 19.

NCAAM BETTING PREVIEW

[7:29 p.m. EST] Tennessee (-2/-149 ML) vs. Purdue – played in Louisville, KY

We’re at the point in the college basketball season where everyone has put together a mini-winning streak, so we have to rely on the numbers and matchups. This is where the Tennessee Volunteers should excel, as they have the advantage in point differential and field goal percentage. Not only that, but Tennessee is just a more athletic team than the Purdue Boilermakers, who have lost in the Sweet 16 round in each of their last two seasons. The Spread Knowledge system endears the Vols on the moneyline in this one, but you could risk less money if you take them with the two-point spread.

[9:39 p.m. EST] Michigan (-1.5/-135 ML) vs. Texas Tech – played in Anaheim, CA

The Michigan Wolverines have been just fine… you know, as long as they’re not playing their rival Michigan State Spartans. In fact, the Wolverines are 8-3 in their last 11 games, with the only three losses coming to those pesky Spartans. Speaking of pesky, that’s exactly what Michigan will be facing in the Texas Tech Red Raiders tonight, who are a mirror image of the tough defensive-minded unit – in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency, Texas Tech is No. 1 and Michigan is No. 2. This is probably why the spread is so low (in favor of Michigan by 1.5 points), but nonetheless, the Spread Knowledge system is in favor of Michigan, who has plenty of experience in playing these high-profile games over the last few seasons.

[9:57 p.m. EST] Oregon (+8.5/+330 ML) vs. Virginia – played in Louisville, KY

These Oregon Ducks are on one helluva run right now, winning 10 straight games en route to landing here in the Sweet 16 against the Virginia Cavaliers. We all know UVA’s stigma – defense, defense, defense, and the Ducks will have to overcome one of the toughest units in the country in order to move on to the Elite 8. It is interesting, though, as Oregon has scored at least 70 points in 10 of its last 11 games, while UVA hasn’t allowed 70 points in each of its last 12 games. Something has to give, and the Spread Knowledge system is quacking in jubilation, going with the Ducks for the upset tonight!

DON’T FORGET ABOUT MLB!!!

We unleashed the MLB portion of the SK Product today and it already produced a win on the over in the Baltimore Orioles-New York Yankees game — depending on what your total was. Some had it at 8.5, some had it at 9. If not, it was a push — no loss of money there.

NBA Preview for Tuesday, March 26

We’ve got a 10-game slate on the NBA docket with many of the teams still fighting for playoff positioning. The most crucial game of the night takes place down in the Sunshine State as the Miami Heat will host the Orlando Magic in a matchup of teams sitting in the eighth and ninth place of the Eastern Conference. If you’re looking for pure entertainment, look no further than the battle of MVP candidates in the Houston Rockets-Milwaukee Bucks game. Later on, in the Mile High City, the Detroit Pistons will look to hold onto their playoff lives as they’ll face the Denver Nuggets.

Let’s take a look at what the Spread Knowledge system likes tonight…

(8:00 p.m. EST) Houston Rockets (+4/+148 ML) at Milwaukee Bucks – Total: 227

We’ll have a matchup of MVP hopefuls tonight as James Harden and the Houston Rockets hit the road to face Giannis Antetokounmpo and his Milwaukee Bucks on TNT. The Rockets have been rolling, winning 14 of their last 16 games, while the Bucks have been somewhat middling over their last 10 games. Part of the reason for that is that Milwaukee’s depth taking some big hits lately with injuries to Malcolm Brogdon, Nikola Mirotic and Pau Gasol. Because of that, our system likes Houston to grab the win tonight with the total going under. The Rockets are tied for the league’s fourth-slowest pace, so that should help limit what the Bucks do on offense.

(8:00 p.m. EST) Los Angeles Clippers (-2/-128 ML) at Minnesota Timberwolves – Total: 230

The Los Angeles Clippers, winners in 10 of their last 11, hit the road to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have already been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. With the season-ending injury to Jusuf Nurkic, a few of these teams in the Western Conference might be able to leapfrog the Portland Trail Blazers for that coveted four-seed to get home-court advantage for the first round of the playoffs. The Clippers have a golden opportunity tonight against a T-Wolves team that has lost five of their last six games. Our system likes LA to get the win on the moneyline.

(8:30 p.m. EST) Sacramento Kings (-1.5/-122 ML) at Dallas Mavericks – Total: 226.5

This game between the Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks won’t move the needle on the NBA Playoffs. However, our system likes the under on tonight’s game as these two teams just played each other five days ago. There should be plenty of familiarities here, and that could be a key for the Mavs slowing down Kings’ point guard De’Aaron Fox. The Kings’ last three games have gone under the total, while the Mavs’ last two games have had the same fate.

(10:30 p.m. EST) Washington Wizards (+2/+114 ML) at Los Angeles Lakers – Total: 233.5

While the Washington Wizards are still “mathematically alive” we all know the deal – they’re not making the playoffs. Speaking of not making the playoffs, the Los Angeles Lakers will continue their ways of going through the motion, just as they have all season. Granted, the 233.5 total is quite large, but we shouldn’t expect either team to put any effort in on the defensive end tonight. Our system likes the over with the Lakers allowing at least 106 points in every game since Jan. 29.