Tag: Minnesota Twins

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Thursday, August 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 207-148-10 (58%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since July 28, we have a 43-16-4 record over the last 63 premium picks — these do not include free picks. We had a tough Wednesday, going winless (with one push) on our for premium picks. It’s a great day to bounce back!

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[8:05 p.m. EST] Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: -116) at Texas Rangers
MIN: Michael Pineda – R (7-5, 4.15 ERA/1.19 WHIP)
TEX: Pedro Payano – R (1-1, 3.86 ERA/1.71 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Rangers-Twins game on Thursday. We’re taking the Twins on the 1.5-run line saving some money to lay in the process. After all, the Twins +0.6 IRT (implied run total) increase is the second-highest on tonight’s slate.

Michael Pineda makes his return off a brief stint on the injured list. He’ll be facing a Rangers team that has scored two runs or fewer in six of their last nine games. Looking at Texas over a slightly larger scope, its offense owns dreadful .292 weighted on-base average, .155 ISO (power metric) and 27.5 K-rate numbers over the last 21 days.

Pineda got off to a rough start this season, but he was simply masterful before hitting the IL, allowing three runs or fewer in each of his last six starts – two runs or fewer in five of those, one run or fewer in four.

Pedro Payano probably won’t last long in this game, whether if it’s due to his short leash or ineffectiveness. Payano has walked 10 batters over his last 12 2/3 innings of work, and that’s just not a recipe for success against a team like the Twins.

This game has a total of 12 attached to it, and you have to believe that’s got a lot to do with the Twins in this matchup against Payano – not necessarily the Rangers against Pineda.

Texas has lost six of its last eight games coming into tonight. Look for Minnesota to get the bats going early and often in one of the best hitter’s parks in all of baseball.

* Final Score Prediction * Minnesota Twins: 12 – Texas Rangers: 4

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Saturday, August 10

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 199-140-8 (58.6%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since last Sunday, we have a 35-8-2 record over the last 45 picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: +120)
CLE: Adam Plutko – R (4-2, 4.55 ERA/1.15 WHIP)
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (12-5, 3.61 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

Today’s SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day is the Twins covering the 1.5-run line over the Indians. It’s about time Minnesota gets on the board in this series, having already let Cleveland grab a share of the AL Central lead.

Vegas has spoken already, giving the Twins a +0.4 IRT (implied run total) increase, which is tied for the highest of any team on today’s MLB schedule.

Thankfully for Minnesota, it’ll have the luxury of putting Jake Odorizzi on the mound. He has absolutely dominated Cleveland this season, posting a 0.71 WHIP while allowing only two runs and striking out 13 batters in 11 1/3 innings.

Odorizzi has been just as good in each of his last two starts overall (@MIA, vs ATL) allowing two runs and striking out 12 batters in 11 2/3 innings of work.

Adam Plutko might look like he has solid numbers of late, but he has lucked out by facing the Royals twice and a struggling Angels team. Nonetheless, Plutko will be running into a desperate Twins team looking to regain that lead in the AL Central.

While the Twins do have Nelson Cruz on the injured list, the top of their lineup (Kepler, Polanco, Sano, Rosario) still has great advanced metrics against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Look for them to be a key factor in the Twins getting back on the good foot tonight.

All in all, the Twins need a huge team performance to stay afloat, they’ll get it. Look for Plutko to take a step back and Minnesota’s offense to get back into rhythm.

* Final Score Prediction * Minnesota Twins: 6 – Cleveland Indians: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Wednesday, July 31

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 169-133-7 (56%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.
We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: -124) at Miami Marlins
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (9-5, 2.94 ERA/1.14 WHIP)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara – R (4-9, 4.18 ERA/1.45 WHIP)

Our SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from Miami, where the Marlins will host the Twins. The play here is taking Minnesota to cover the 1.5-run line, considering the massive mismatch in starting pitchers we’ll see tonight.

Jose Berrios typically dominates teams that use a designated hitter. Now, he’ll be facing the worst offense in MLB against right-handed pitching, and there’s no DH to worry about. Over the last 21 days, Miami has dreadful .242 weighted on-base average, .151 ISO (power metric) and 31.7% K-rate numbers against right-handed pitching.

Berrios has faced some stiff competition (OAK x2, CLE x2, BOS) over the last few months, and he still hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any outing since May 18 against the Mariners – the Twins still won that game 18-4.

Sandy Alcantara will have his hands full against one of the best offenses in baseball, and it’s not looking like things will be getting any better once this game starts. The righty has allowed four runs or more in three of the last five starts and seven homers over that span – 28 2/3 innings.

The Twins advanced metrics aren’t as strong as they were earlier in the season, but they have scored at least six runs in seven of the last nine games. Can’t argue with those numbers!

All in all, we’re looking for Berrios to completely dominate the Marlins while the Twins offense gives him some breathing room early.

* Final Score Prediction * Minnesota Twins: 8 – Miami Marlins: 2

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, July 13

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 136-110-5 (55.3%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (10-4, 3.15 ERA/1.12 WHIP)
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (8-6, 3.61 ERA/1.17 WHIP)

Two talented righties take the mound at Progressive Field in their first start since the All-Star break.

Jake Odorizzi definitely needed the break to regather himself. The veteran’s last four outings haven’t gone well, but we can attribute some of those woes to a blister on his pitching hand and matchups against teams that have done well against him over the course of his career. Now that everything is healed up, look for Odorizzi to get back to his usually-dominant self.

Recently, Odorizzi had six of seven outings where he allowed one run or fewer. He actually had a season-high 11 strikeouts and allowed one hit (a solo homer) over six innings against the Indians in his only matchup against them in 2019. All in all, Odorizzi’s numbers are fairly solid against a good portion of the current Cleveland lineup so we should see plenty of continued success.

The guy we’re really banking on to have a good outing is Trevor Bauer, who has been a thorn in the side of a good majority of the Twins’ lineup. Now, his last outing against Minnesota isn’t one that we want to see again, but he does have 16 strikeouts in 15 innings against them this season.

Bauer had a few hiccups, but his good outings have been better than ever recently. In fact, Bauer has allowed one run or fewer in four of his last six starts.

Five of the last eight Twins’ games have gone under the total and we’re looking to see more of the same this evening. The SK system has the under on this game graded as the third-best pick on our MLB board today.

* Final Score Prediction * Cleveland Indians: 4 – Minnesota Twins: 3

[7:15 p.m. EST] Over 9 – San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers
SF: Madison Bumgarner – L (5-7, 4.03 ERA/1.20 WHIP)
MIL: Zach Davies – R (7-2, 3.07 ERA/1.38 WHIP)

Madison Bumgarner hasn’t been at his best on the road this season, registering a 2-5 record and 4.60 ERA away from Oracle Park. He did face the Brewers back on June 15, allowing five hits, three walks and five runs (three earned) over six innings – the final score in that game was 8-7, in favor of the Giants.

The key to the total going over could surprisingly be the suddenly potent Giants’ offense. It’s hard to believe, but this offense has posted at least seven runs in six of the last eight games – subsequently, the total has gone over in seven of those games. That also includes a 10-run output last night at Miller Park against these same Brewers.

Zach Davies had plenty of bad outings of late, and most of his success came in a whopping four starts against the Pirates in a span of seven outings. Thankfully, the Pirates aren’t in the ballpark tonight – it’ll be the Giants, and I can’t imagine too many people thought we’d be saying that.

Also playing in San Francisco’s favor is the fact that Milwaukee has allowed at least six runs in each of the last four games – all four of those games have gone over the total.

Vegas sees the value in the total going over tonight, as they’ve adjusted the game total from 8.5 to 9.0, with the IRT (implied run totals) increasing +0.3 for both sides.

All in all, the SK system is quite fond of the total going over in this game, making its B+ grade the fourth-highest on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction * Milwaukee Brewers: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 5

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, June 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 106-89-4 (54.4%) *

 

[4:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (1.5-run line: -200) at Baltimore Orioles
BOS: Chris Sale – L (2-7, 3.52 ERA/0.96 WHIP)
BAL: Dylan Bundy – R (3-7, 4.50 ERA/1.23 WHIP)

The Orioles are a putrid 3-26 as a home underdog of +175 or more over the last two season. Yikes! That mark in the loss column is about to get bigger as Chris Sale takes the mound for the Red Sox. The lanky lefty is 7-2 with a 2.37 ERA/0.99 WHIP over his career when starting against the Orioles. There has been more success recently, as Sale has allowed one run or fewer in five of the last six starts against them.

Sale has been on top of his game recently, with at least 10 strikeouts in seven of his last nine starts. Just over a month ago, he dominated this same Bird Gang bunch, allowing one run over eight innings while striking out 14. Since this is a mid-day game the hitters might have to deal with some shadows, and that’ll make it nearly impossible to hit a pitcher like Sale. You should certainly give some thought to laying money on his 8.5 K-prop at -144 today.

Baltimore just struggled mightily last night against fellow lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, and now own less-than-stellar .309 xwOBA/.166 ISO numbers versus left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

Dylan Bundy takes the mound for the Orioles and he does not have a great history against the opposition, going 3-7 with a 5.25 ERA/1.50 WHIP lifetime. The splits aren’t in his favor either, as Bundy is 1-4 with a 4.54 ERA at home and 0-5 with a 5.70 ERA in day-time starts.

Hopefully, Boston can rip Bundy early and get to the Baltimore bullpen. Their 9.13 ERA (highest in MLB) over the last seven days was inflated quite a bit after last night’s whooping.

The Red Sox look to have finally gotten back on the good foot offensively, scoring a total of 29 runs over the last four games. Mookie Betts should be back in the lineup after getting the night off – he has four career homers against Bundy.

It’s a ton of money to be laying on the 1.5-run line, but Boston loves it here in Baltimore, winning 16 of the last 18 meetings at Camden Yards.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: -124)
KC: Glenn Sparkman – R (1-2, 3.58 ERA/1.30 WHIP)
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (9-2, 1.92 ERA/0.97 WHIP)

The Twins did it against last night, beating the weak and improving their mark to 28-10 this season against teams with a losing record. That number should go up some more as they put Jake Odorizzi on the mound. Minnesota has won the last 10 games that Odorizzi started, with eight of them coming by two runs or more.

It’s ridiculous to fathom the amount of success Odorizzi has produced this season. The veteran righty has started 13 games in 2019 – he’s allowed three runs or fewer in 12 of them, two runs or fewer in 11 of them, one run or fewer in eight of them, and no runs in six of them. Whoa!

KC’s offense has been sputtering quite a bit over the last 21 days against right-handed pitching, with an anemic .281 wOBA, .133 ISO and 24.7% K-rate. They’ve also scored three runs or fewer in five of the last six games, and two runs or fewer in four of the last six.

Glenn Sparkman starts for the Royals and his lack of ability to get strikeouts could very well get him in trouble against a potent Twins lineup. Minnesota has some of the best advanced-metrics in MLB this season, so I expect them to give Odorizzi more than enough run support in this game.

I mentioned this number last night, but it still resonates for this matchup – the Twins are 37-16 in games against right-handed starters while the Royals are 16-34. KC also owns the worst road record in baseball at 8-24.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 7 – Kansas City Royals: 1 *

[9:07 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics (1.5-run line: -110)
SEA: Wade LeBlanc – L (3-2, 5.31 ERA/1.37 WHIP)
OAK: Frankie Montas – R (8-2, 2.84 ERA/1.18 WHIP)

For the grand finale of the evening, we’re taking it out West. The A’s are massive -230 favorites on the moneyline, which is actually their highest of the season. Rather than lay all of that money, we’ve got some nice trends in our favor to cut that in half by going with the 1.5-run line.

Frankie Montas is probably the best pitcher in baseball that no one knows about. He tied his season high of 10 strikeouts in his last outing and has notched at least nine of them in three of the last five starts. Not to mention, Montas has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 10 of his 13 starts this season.

Wade LeBlanc goes for the Mariners, and he’ll be facing an A’s team that has a .405 wOBA and .229 ISO against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Particularly, it’s been the bottom of Oakland’s lineup doing most of the damage over that span, and it’s not like the top four hitters in its lineup (Semien, Chapman, Piscotty, Davis) are a bunch of slouches either. LeBlanc got hit around pretty well by them in his last meeting and I expect plenty of the same in this one.

If the A’s do get to LeBlanc early, their offense will have the benefit of facing a Mariners bullpen that has allowed the most runs (26) and the second-highest ERA (8.56) over the last seven days.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics: 7 – Seattle Mariners: 3 *

 

<> Key terms used in today’s writing:

– ISO = Isolated Power (A sabermetric computation used to measure a player’s raw power. This distinguishes a batter with a .300 batting average and many singles, as opposed to a batter with a .300 average and more extra-base hits… typically, .200 is where you want to be in ISO.)

– wOBA = Weighted On-Base Average (A version of on-base percentage that accounts for how a player reached base. The value for each event is determined by how much it is worth in relation to a run created – Ex: a double is worth more than a single, a triple is worth more than a double, a home run is worth more than a triple, etc… about .320 is league average)

– xwOBA = Expected Weighted On-Base Average (The same thing as wOBA, just removing defense from the equation. An easy way of looking at xwOBA, would be to just imagine there are no fielders on the playing surface.)

– wRC+ = Weighted Runs Created Plus (Runs created + adjusting the number to account for important external factors – like ballpark or ERA… 100 is league average)

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, June 14

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 104-88-4 (54.2%) *

 

[7:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (1.5-run line: -150) at Baltimore Orioles
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (6-4, 5.00 ERA/1.39 WHIP)
BAL: Luis Ortiz – R (season debut)

OK, here we go. It’s time for the defending champs to officially get back on track. The Red Sox are 15-2 in their last 17 trips to Camden Yards, so this could very well be the cure for them. Vegas believes so, as the Red Sox IRT has increased significantly by +0.8 and the Orioles’ IRT has decreased by -0.3.

We’ve got solid trends for Boston and its starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez. The Red Sox are an incredible 17-2 in his starts against teams with a losing record, and the team also has an excellent 14-4 mark in E-Rod’s road starts over the last two seasons. Not to mention, he’s 4-0 against Baltimore in his last four meetings, allowing two runs or fewer in all of them.

While the lefty’s traditional numbers don’t look great, he is the unfortunate victim of bad luck. The Statcast suggests that positive regression is coming around in E-Rod’s favor, as opposing hitters aren’t barreling the ball up with great frequency – a lot of soft-contact hits are finding their way to open spots on the field.

The Orioles’ bullpen has allowed the most earned runs (175) and second-most homers (52) this season, and they’ll likely be needed after Luis Ortiz is done. Ortiz doesn’t have much MLB experience, but it isn’t pretty. In fact, his numbers down in Triple-A are even worse, carrying a 2-6 record with a 7.01 ERA/1.63 WHIP and 14 homers allowed in 52 2/3 innings.

If the Red Sox don’t get busy in this matchup, they all need to take ice baths or participate in some sort of cruel punishment.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 12 – Baltimore Orioles: 4 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 7 (+104) – Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays
LAA: Andrew Heaney – L (0-1, 5.40 ERA/0.96 WHIP)
TB: Blake Snell – L (4-5, 3.50 ERA/1.10 WHIP)

For the second night in a row, we’ll have dueling southpaws going head-to-head at Tropicana Field. Both guys have electric swing-and-miss stuff, and that’s probably why we’ve seen drastic IRT decreases for the Angels (-0.4) and Rays (-0.7), while the game total went from 8.0 to 7.0.

Blake Snell takes the mound for Rays at home, and he looked great against the Red Sox, even after getting into some early trouble at Fenway Park. The Angels do have solid metrics against left-handed pitching, but you can throw all of that out the window when a guy like Snell is pitching. In fact, Snell has faced this Angels team before and notched a quality start in each outing while striking out 15 batters over 12 2/3 innings. Most of the guys that got the big hits in those games are injured anyways, and Snell has done a job of neutralizing the big boppers in this lineup, albeit in limited plate appearances.

Andrew Heaney allowed five runs in his last start, but it was the second time the Mariners saw him in six days – offenses typically get the advantage in those scenarios. Even with that performance, Heaney has a ridiculous 19.4 swinging-strike rate and has struck out 28 of the 67 batters (41.8% K-rate) he’s faced this season.

Oh yeah, and the team with the worst K-rate in baseball? You guessed it – the Rays.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 3 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: -116)
KC: Brad Keller – R (3-8, 4.29 ERA/1.38 WHIP)
MIN: Kyle Gibson – R (6-3, 4.14 ERA/1.28 WHIP)

Vegas is already giving the Twins some love early on with increases to their IRT (+0.7) and moneyline (-180 to -230). And for good reason, as there a few trends heading directly in their favor:

Minnesota is 27-10 against teams with a losing record this season, while KC is 28-80 against teams with a winning record over the last two seasons. Also, the Twins are 36-16 in games this season where the opposing starter is right-handed, while the Royals are 16-33 in that same scenario.

The Twins lead MLB in numerous advanced-metric categories against right-handed pitching and have done so throughout the entire season. Over the last 21 days, they own a massive .360 wOBA and .276 ISO against righties.

On the flip side, KC has been just the opposite over the last 21 days with a .287 wOBA and .138 ISO to go along with a 25% K-rate. The Royals have also scored three runs or fewer in 11 of their last 16 games.

Minnesota starter Kyle Gibson is a perfect 3-0 at home with a 3.24 ERA and .205 opposing batting average in four starts at Target Field this season.

All in all, the Twins are just the better team here and the Royals have lost eight of the last nine games that Brad Keller has started – seven of those eight losses came by two runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 11 – Kansas City Royals: 4 * 

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, June 12

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

* 2019 MLB Record: 104-82-4 (56%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies (ML: -137)
ARZ: Merrill Kelly – R (6-6, 4.12 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
PHI: Zach Eflin – R (6-5, 2.88 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

Zach Eflin loves sleeping in his own bed, as evidenced by the 4-1 record and 2.10 ERA he’s produced at Citizens Bank Park this season. Both teams had their IRTs decrease (Phillies: -0.3, D-Backs: -0.2) since the open today and that’s probably a good sign for Eflin, considering how well he’s pitched at home. With the total dropping a half-run, that has more to do with Eflin than his opposition.

I’m looking for a big shutdown performance from Eflin that’ll carry the Phils to victory. After all, Philly is unbeaten in all six of Eflin’s June starts over the last two seasons, while going 32-18 this season when a right-handed starter is on the mound.

30-year-old rookie Merrill Kelly has been outstanding in each of his last two starts, but he does own a 6.00 ERA in seven outings away from Chase Field this season. Kelly has been much worse against right-handed batters and the Phils have plenty of them (Segura, Hoskins, Realmuto, Kingery, Franco) that can make life difficult on him.

The Phils will be without Bryce Harper in the starting lineup tonight, but I still think we’re getting solid value here with Eflin on the mound.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 4 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals (1.5-run line: -116) at Miami Marlins
STL: Miles Mikolas – R (4.54 ERA/1.19 WHIP)
MIA: Jordan Yamamoto – R (MLB debut)

Well, it finally happened – the Marlins came crashing back down to Earth. After taking the first two of a three-game series in Milwaukee last week, the Marlins have now scored one run or fewer in five of the last six games.

Things won’t get any easier as Miami will have Jordan Yamamoto, making his MLB debut, against the usually-efficient Miles Mikolas. The Cardinals are 31-14 in games that Mikolas starts over the last two seasons, including a 15-6 mark on the road over that span. Not to mention, Mikolas is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in his career against the Marlins.

Yamamoto had a 3-5 record with a 3.58 ERA in 12 starts for the Marlins’ Double-A affiliate in Jacksonville this season. He was actually part of the deal that sent Christian Yelich to Milwaukee. Needless to say, we know who won that trade.

The Marlins are 2-14 at home as underdogs of +125 to +175 this season, and 0-9 at home when the total is 8.0 or 8.5.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 6 – Miami Marlins: 1 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: -135)
SEA: Opener <-to-> Tommy Milone – L (1-1, 3.10 ERA/1.08 WHIP)
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (8-2, 3.14 ERA/1.08 WHIP)

Jose Berrios has been outstanding at Target Field, compiling a 23-6 record there since 2017. The Twins are 11-2 in games that Berrios starts this season, with eight of them coming by two runs or more. Tonight’s outlook to cover the 1.5-run line looks much more optimistic, considering he won’t be squaring off against a fellow ace.

In fact, the Twins will face an opener from the Mariners’ bullpen before left-handed Tommy Milone comes in to handle the majority of the work on the mound. That’s bad news for Milone, considering Minnesota has excellent numbers against left-handed pitching, including a massive .439 wOBA and .298 ISO in that split over the last 21 days.

More Twins’ goodies, yay! Minnesota has been pounding on the weak this season, going 26-9 against teams with a losing record and have posted a resounding 24-4 record as a home favorite of -175 to -250 over the last three seasons

After starting the season 13-2, Seattle is now 10-28 over the last 38 games. Not to mention, the Mariners moved to 5-26 against teams with a winning record after last night’s loss.

Twins roll big!

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 8 – Seattle Mariners: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, June 11

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

* 2019 MLB Record: 101-81-4 (55.5%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-116) – Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
TOR: Trent Thornton – L (1-4, 4.73 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
BAL: John Means – L (5-4, 2.67 ERA/1.07 WHIP)

The highest SK Trend Confidence rating of the day is the under on this Blue Jays-Orioles game. According to the Vegas trends, the Blue Jays are somehow getting more love. It does, however, give me confidence that Toronto’s Trent Thornton will have a good outing on the mound, leading us to the total going under.

Thornton has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts. I guess part of the reason for the Blue Jays’ love in Vegas is the Orioles’ anemic .235 wOBA and .067 ISO against left-handed pitching these last 21 days. That’ll typically do it.

The part that really baffles me is that John Means takes the mound for Baltimore, and he’s been nothing short of miraculous at home for this awful team. The rookie southpaw is 3-1 in seven appearances (five starts) at Camden Yards, with a 1.53 ERA and an opposing batting average of .173. Not to mention, Toronto owns the fifth-worst wOBA (.283) and ISO (.146) against lefties this season.

We do have two Blue Jays’ hitters to worry about, though, as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Lourdes Gurriel have both crushed lefties over the last 21 days. If that’s where Means gets beat, it’ll likely be from there.

I don’t get it, but I’ve also learned to not doubt Vegas. I’ll give the Blue Jays the nod, but the total going under looks a lot better, especially with the wind blowing in at about 9 mph.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 3 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-118) – Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians
CIN: Luis Castillo – R (6-1, 2.26 ERA/1.10 WHIP)
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (4-6, 3.93 ERA/1.16 WHIP)

This nightmare has to end eventually for Trevor Bauer – it just has to. He is one of the most talented pitchers in baseball, and it should be noted that there have been glimmers of hope this season.

Speaking of hope, an in-state matchup against the Reds offers just that. No other team in baseball has scored fewer runs (15) since the start of June, and it’s been seven straight games involving Cincy where the total has gone under. The Reds also rank in the bottom-third of MLB in most advanced metrics against right-handed pitching this season.

Four of Bauer’s five career starts against the Reds have gone under the total, as he’s amassed a 1.20 WHIP in those games.

Luis Castillo had some slip-ups recently, but overall this is one of the most talented pitchers in baseball. In night starts this season, Castillo has gone 6-0 with a microscopic 1.50 ERA and 58 strikeouts over 48 innings.

With the Reds’ inability to score runs of late, I’m going with the Indians to get the victory. But the main play here is going under the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 3 – Cincinnati Reds: 2 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-120) – Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins
SEA: Mike Leake – R (5-6, 4.30 ERA/1.27 WHIP)
MIN: Martin Perez – L (7-2, 3.72 ERA/1.42 WHIP)

Mike Leake is coming off two consecutive dazzling performances, including a complete-game one-run gem against the Astros last time out. However, most of Leake’s success has come at T-Mobile Park this season, which is not where he’ll be tonight. Instead, he’ll be at Target Field in Minnesota, where the Twins are 67-40 at home since last season (19-9 this season). Not to mention, the Mariners are a horrific 5-25 against teams with a winning record in 2019.

The Twins’ offense has been destroying opposing pitchers of both handedness, but their 35-15 record against right-handed starters this season speaks plenty of volumes. Over the last 21 days, the Twins have a massive .380 wOBA and .316 ISO against righties.

Martin Perez should be ecstatic to get back on the mound at home, where he owns a 3-1 record and 2.51 ERA this season. However, he’s allowed 11 runs (eight earned) over the last 7 1/3 innings of work, and the Mariners’ offense has a robust .366 wOBA and .243 ISO against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

We’ve got two more primary facts of evidence going in our favor for the total going over – Each team’s bullpen is getting ripped over the last 14 days and the wind will be blowing out to left field at 9 mph.

The SK Trend Confidence rating is very high on the Twins tonight, with B+ grades on their moneyline and 1.5-run line, but the over is my main play here.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 9 – Seattle Mariners: 6 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals (1.5-run line: -116) at Chicago White Sox
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (5-4, 3.59 ERA/1.20 WHIP)
CHW: Manny Banuelos – L (3-4, 7.36 ERA/1.83 WHIP)

We’ve got a HUGE mismatch of offense against left-handed pitching that we need to exploit tonight. In the words of Ace Ventura, “Alllllrighty then!”

The Nationals own the fourth-best wRC+ (117) and fifth-best wOBA (.354) against lefties this season. That’s terrible news for Manny Banuelos, who has allowed at least five runs in four of his last five starts. Not to mention, the Nats get an extra bat in their lineup tonight because of the DH rule in the American League Park.

Even better news for Washington is its performance against lefties over the last 21 days – about the amount of time their lineup has been mostly healthy. Over that time frame, the Nats have a gaudy .380 wOBA and .200 ISO against left-handed pitching.

The White Sox have been the complete opposite. Over the last 21 days, they have a putrid .258 wOBA and .037 ISO against left-handed pitching. Let’s all give a big YIIIIIKES to the White Sox chances tonight as they go against the very talented Patrick Corbin. Now, it’s worth noting that Corbin hasn’t been at his best of late, but an opponent like Chicago is certainly one which can get him back on track.

All in all, we’ve got stats-overload in our favor, and the Nationals should give Corbin more than enough run support in this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 10 – Chicago White Sox: 4 *

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* Key terms used in today’s writing:

– ISO = Isolated Power (A sabermetric computation used to measure a player’s raw power. This distinguishes a batter with a .300 batting average and many singles, as opposed to a batter with a .300 average and more extra-base hits… typically, .200 is where you want to be in ISO.)

– wOBA = Weighted On-Base Average (A version of on-base percentage that accounts for how a player reached base. The value for each event is determined by how much it is worth in relation to a run created – Ex: a double is worth more than a single, a triple is worth more than a double, a home run is worth more than a triple, etc… about .320 is league average)

– xwOBA = Expected Weighted On-Base Average (The same thing as wOBA, just removing defense from the equation. An easy way of looking at xwOBA, would be to just imagine there are no fielders on the playing surface.)

– wRC+ = Weighted Runs Created Plus (Runs created + adjusting the number to account for important external factors – like ballpark or ERA… 100 is league average)

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 9

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 97-80-4 (55%) *

[1:05 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-106) – Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
TB: Blake Snell – L (3-5, 3.68 ERA/1.11 WHIP)
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (6-3, 4.88 ERA/1.37 WHIP)

Blake Snell ran into a hot Tigers’ offense in his last start, allowing seven hits and six runs over 4 1/3 innings. That outing was certainly a misnomer, considering the electric lefty had only allowed six runs in his previous 30 1/3 innings.

Today, Snell will take on a Red Sox team he’s dominated since the start of last season. Snell has collected the win in each of his last three starts against Boston and hasn’t allowed more than two runs against them in each of the last four. The Red Sox offense hasn’t looked good in this series, and it helps Snell’s case that Mookie Betts is only hitting .209 against left-handed pitching. As for the rest of the Red Sox offense against lefties, they’re swinging and missing at a massive 31.8% K-rate and own a putrid .260 xwOBA over the last 14 days.

Eduardo Rodriguez gets the benefit of facing a Rays team that has the highest K-rate (28.8%) against left-handed pitching this season. While E-Rod’s numbers don’t look great on the surface versus Tampa Bay, it’s worth noting that he’s allowed three runs or fewer in six of seven starts against them.

I fully expect E-Rod to match Snell’s performance today, giving us a nice pitching duel for most of the day. Good news for the under here, as the IRT has dropped -0.3 for both sides.

Fun fact: Dating back to last season, the Red Sox are 29-7 in games that Rodriguez has started.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 3 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2 *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: -144) at Detroit Tigers
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (8-2, 1.96 ERA/0.96 WHIP)
DET: Ryan Carpenter – L (1-2, 6.23 ERA/1.35 WHIP)

The Twins are the number one offense in baseball, particularly against left-handed pitching, and their 5.8 IRT ranks third-best on the entire slate. Today, they’ll take on a lefty in Ryan Carpenter who actually has worse numbers at home. Carpenter has gotten lit up at Comerica Park, allowing at least seven hits in all three starts there, which totals out to an 8.44 ERA and .338 opposing batting average.

Jake Odorizzi takes the mound for Minnesota, and he’s been fantastic allowing NO RUNS in six of his last seven starts – I repeat: NO RUNS in six of his last seven starts. Whoa! Not to mention, the Twins have won each of the last nine times Odorizzi was on the bump.

Look for the Twins to roll easily in this one, with Odorizzi getting more than enough run support to make it work.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 8 – Detroit Tigers: 0 *

[3:05 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics (1.5-run line: -126) at Texas Rangers
OAK: Frankie Montas – R (7-2, 2.83 ERA/1.17 WHIP)
TEX: Drew Smyly – L (1-4, 7.93 ERA/1.86 WHIP)

It’s a huge mismatch of starting pitchers at Globe Life Park today, so look for the A’s to take this one easily.

Drew Smyly takes the mound for the Rangers, and he’s been beaten up like he’s owed people money of late. Smyly had eerily-similar stat lines in each of his last two starts, allowing eight hits and seven runs against the Mariners and Orioles. That’s a major problem, considering the A’s rank first in ISO (.229) and tied for second in wOBA (.357) against left-handed pitching this season.

Oakland owns a magnificent .420 wOBA against lefties over the last 14 days, hence why they have the highest IRT (6.4) on the entire slate.

Frankie Montas has been simply dominant this season, and he’s allowed two runs or fewer in six of the last seven starts. The splits actually work in favor of Montas as well, as he’s 4-2 with a 2.36 ERA in seven road starts, while going 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA in three daytime starts too.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics: 10 – Texas Rangers: 3 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, June 5

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

Game 3, NBA Finals: Toronto Raptors (+4.5, -105) at Golden State Warriors

It’s incredibly difficult to gauge this game without truly knowing the status of Klay Thompson. The part that is even more frustrating is that this decision likely won’t be up to him – rather, the Warriors’ training staff. Klay’s mobility will be tested out in pregame warmups, and a decision will be made at that time.

If Thompson is unable to go, it’ll be a huge advantage for the visiting Raptors, who actually won here in Oakland by 20 points back in December. Not only does he provide an unlimited outside range, but Klay’s defense is just flat out dominant. Losing two big aspects like that could be too much for even the almighty Warriors to overcome.

Aside from the first six minutes of the third quarter in Game 2, you can argue that the Raptors have controlled this series. Their length has proven to be difficult for the smaller Warriors, and if Klay does indeed miss tonight’s game, you have to believe the Raptors will throw box-and-1 and double-team defenses at him all night.

It is worth noting, the Warriors have either lost or won by single-digits in five of their seven home playoff games during this run. For the final score prediction, I’ll give it to Raptors with the assumption Klay sits out. If he’s in, I think the Warriors win, but without covering the spread.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Raptors: 108 – Golden State Warriors: 104 *

 

* 2019 MLB Record: 95-77-4 (55.2%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Minnesota Twins (ML: -130) at Cleveland Indians
MIN: Martin Perez – L (7-2, 3.71 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
CLE: bullpen game

By the way, I just want to mention how utterly furious I am at the onset. I had this gorgeous article written up for this game and how Carlos Carrasco was going to get beat over the head. Well, at about 3:00 p.m. EST, Carrasco was scratched and announced that he’ll be heading to the injured list.

Sigh. The life of a sports betting writer…

Our system has a B+ for Minnesota on the moneyline, and that was even when Carlos Carrasco was supposed to take the mound. Now, it’ll be a bullpen game for the Indians. Tyler Clippard will take the first inning and then it’s all up in the air from there. It is worth noting, though, that the Indians’ bullpen has the sixth-worst xFIP (expected fielding-independent pitching) over the last seven days. Oliver Perez is pretty much the only exception, but he probably won’t be used since he’s already pitched 4 2/3 innings over the last seven days, including throwing an inning last night.

Minnesota has been crushing baseballs all season, leading MLB in homers. Looking at it in a closer prism, though, the Twins’ projected lineup owns a massive .354 wOBA (weighted on-base average) and .278 ISO (power metric) against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. I assume they’ll some mostly right-handers tonight.

Martin Perez’s last start was his worst outing of the season, allowing six hits and six runs over 2 2/3 innings. Prior to that disaster, Perez had allowed three runs or fewer in six straight starts, while averaging about 6 1/3 innings per outing over that span. It also helps that the Indians own the sixth-lowest wOBA in baseball against left-handed pitching.

Behind Perez is the Minnesota bullpen, which ranks in the top-three of MLB of most advanced pitching metrics over the last 14 days.

Two trends to look at heading into tonight:
– Twins are 15-4 after a loss this season
– Twins are 21-10 in road games this season

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 5 – Cleveland Indians: 2 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-104) – Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
BAL: John Means – L (5-4, 2.80 ERA/1.10 WHIP)
TEX: Mike Minor – L (5-4, 2.74 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

Two outstanding lefties take the mound at Globe Life Park tonight. I’m usually nervous about taking the under in Texas with humid conditions, but not with John Means and Mike Minor going toe-to-toe.

Let’s start with the homey Minor, who owns a 2.50 ERA in six home starts this season. Unfortunately, he would’ve had better numbers, but a trashy fifth-inning defensive performance and a homer that scraped the foul pole in his last outing thwarted that. Discredit that one bad inning and ride Minor to a low total tonight. Yeehaw!

On the other side, Means has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his seven starts since being placed in the starting rotation. In fact, he allowed only run in four of those starts. Means has already pitched well in environments like Camden Yards, Coors Field, Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium – so what’s the big deal adding some Globe Life Park to the mix? Not to mention, the Rangers have a putrid .280 xwOBA and .139 ISO over the last 14 days against left-handed pitching.

Even with the humid conditions, Vegas dropped the IRTs for both sides (Orioles: -0.2, Rangers: -0.3) while the game total went from 9.5 to 9.0 as well. Neither team’s bullpen is one that I want to trust, but I’ll give the Rangers the edge at home after dropping one last night.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 4 – Baltimore Orioles: 3 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-102) – Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
CIN: Anthony DeSclafani – R (2-3, 4.97 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (4-3, 3.94 ERA/1.58 WHIP)

Weather permitting, we should have ourselves a good ole fashioned slugfest at Busch Stadium. The conditions are great for hitting, with temperatures in the upper-80s and humidity playing a big factor.

Vegas has taken notice, increasing the IRTs for both sides (Cardinals: +0.7, Reds: +0.4) and the game total from 8.5 to 9.5. Both of these teams have been playing to a lot of totals going under of late, so it makes the Vegas movement even more intriguing.

Anthony DeSclafani, from the great state of New Jersey, has been getting ripped over his last five starts. The righty has allowed 31 hits, 19 runs and nine over the last 23 1/3 innings of work. The heart of the Cards’ order has hit DeSclafani well over the course of their careers, so look for that to continue on Wednesday.

Dakota Hudson has been doing a good job of keeping the ball on the ground, but a lot of these Reds’ hitters can still make life difficult on him. Cincy did put eight baserunners (seven hits, one walk) up against him in their previous meeting. Not to mention, they have a fantastic .347 wOBA and .213 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 7 – Cincinnati Reds: 5 *