Tag: MLB Bets

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, June 25

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 120-105-4 (53.3%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 (-122) – New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
NYM: Walker Lockett – R (0-1, 23.14 ERA/2.57 WHIP)
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (6-6, 4.12 ERA/1.39 WHIP)

We saw a slugfest last night, and we’re going to see one again. Vegas already set the tone for this game, raising the total from 10 to 10.5, and the heavy juice (-122) is on the over.

Most of that has to do with Walker Lockett, who has been battered in his brief MLB experience. Dating back to last season, Lockett owns an 0-4 record to go along with an 11.42 ERA/2.19 WHIP over 17 1/3 innings.

The Phils are coming off a season-high 19-hit performance in last night’s game, and I’d look for them to carry over the hot-swinging sticks tonight. As I mentioned in yesterday’s writing, the Phils were swept over the weekend by the lowly Marlins, and this series against the Mets is a true challenge of where this team is at – and where they’ll be going forward.

Jake Arrieta has thrown two consecutive quality starts, but I don’t see that trend continuing. Left-handed batters have been giving him plenty of trouble this season, and now the Mets have guys like Jeff McNeil, Robinson Cano and Michael Conforto back in the lineup.

Just as the case was last night, both teams’ bullpens are an absolute mess. I went over the advanced metrics yesterday, so there’s no need to do it again after a 13-7 game. They suck, take my word for it.

A total of eight homers were hit in last night’s game, adding on to the narrative of slugfests between these two teams at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s do it again!

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 10 – New York Mets: 5

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 (-104) – Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers
SEA: Marco Gonzales – L (8-6, 4.38 ERA/1.37 WHIP)
MIL: Zach Davies – R (7-1, 3.06 ERA/1.36 WHIP)

We’ve got two hot offenses going head-to-head in Milwaukee, so it’s only natural to take the over here. After all, Vegas raised the total from 9.5 to 10.5, with each team getting a nice IRT increase as well – Brewers: +0.6, Mariners: +0.4.

After struggling at the beginning of June, the Brewers have now scored at least six runs in four of the last five games. Looking at their Statcast data over the last 21 days, we’ll see that Milwaukee has been quite unlucky against right-handed pitching over that span. Their .357 xwOBA and .310 wOBA have a huge gap, with the xwOBA telling us their quality of contact is high and the wOBA telling us how painful it’s been to watch those baseballs hit leather.

Marco Gonzales has pitched well in his last three outings, but he’s facing an incredibly tough lineup in their own ballpark tonight. Not to mention, Miller Park tends to favor offenses more often than not.

The Mariners’ bullpen owns the fourth-worst ERA (5.24) in all of baseball, and we’ll probably see more of them tonight if Gonzales gets lifted for a pinch hitter in the NL ballpark.

Zach Davies has been knocked around in the month of June, allowing 30 hits and 13 runs over 20 2/3 innings of work. Opposing hitters have a .353 batting average against him over that span.

Seattle’s offense is rocking and rolling with a .360 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, and the top of its’ lineup is mainly to thank for that.

All in all, we’ve got two teams making solid contact with the ball and the Brewers should especially be able to feast late in this game against the Mariners’ bullpen.

* Final Score Prediction * Milwaukee Brewers: 8 – Seattle Mariners: 6

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, June 24

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 119-103-4 (53.6%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10 (-116) – New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
NYM: Steven Matz – L (5-5, 4.28 ERA/1.37 WHIP)
PHI: Zach Eflin – R (6-7, 2.83 ERA/1.16 WHIP)

This should be quite a game tonight, with both teams facing their own bouts of controversy. The Phils on a seven-game losing streak and the Mets dealing with yet another chaotic situation after Mickey Callaway and Jason Vargas almost came to blows with a reporter yesterday.

Nonetheless, the Phillies-Mets matchups at Citizens Bank Park tend to have plenty of runs scored – and it’s usually the Mets doing most of the damage. You just have to wonder when we’re going to see the Phils pick themselves back up off the floor. Getting swept over the weekend by the Marlins might just be the motivation they needed.

Zach Eflin had one start against the Mets so far this season and allowed four runs (three earned) over four innings. Lifetime against the Mets, Eflin has a 2-4 record with a 5.63 ERA/1.33 WHIP in eight starts.

Steven Matz has two starts against the Phis this season, with one great outing and the other one… ehhhh, not so much. Back on April 16, Matz didn’t even record an out before leaving the game, allowing eight runs (six earned) on two homers, four hits and a walk. In the outing that went well, which was actually his next start after getting whomped by the Phils, Matz allowed one run over six innings. Lifetime against the Phils, Matz is 1-3 with a 5.02 ERA/1.50 WHIP in seven starts.

Then there’s the issue of these bullpens. Over the last 14 days, the Phils’ pen has the second-worst xFIP (5.48) while the Mets own the fifth-worst (5.19). The advanced metric “xFIP” determines the quality of pitching that is independent of fielding – the higher the number, the worse they are.

It’s going to be a gorgeous evening in Philadelphia, with the wind blowing out slightly at 6 mph to center field, making it great hitting conditions at an extreme hitter’s ballpark.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 8 – New York Mets: 7 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-116) – Chicago White Sox (ML: +150) at Boston Red Sox
CHW: Lucas Giolito – R (10-2, 2.74 ERA/1.02 WHIP)
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (8-4, 4.71 ERA/1.36 WHIP)

The SK Trend Confidence rating has a very high B+ grade on both the White Sox and total going under in this game.

Granted, Lucas Giolito is coming off a rough outing against the Cubs at Wrigley Field, but I won’t hold it against him. That’s been a tough matchup for most pitchers, and especially for Giolito since coming to Chicago.

The kid’s metrics, which include a 30.9% K-rate and 14.6% swinging-strike rate, are absolutely fantastic. Over the last 30 days, Giolito’s 34.6% K-rate is fifth-best in MLB behind Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler. Thanks to that note from Brian Tulloch at FantasyCPR. All of you fantasy baseball fans, check out his article from today.

Giolito slipped up in his last outing and I fully expect him to get back on the dominant foot. Sure, the Red Sox are a tough matchup, but Giolito has 15 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings of work against them in his lifetime and only allowed one extra-base hit in 44 plate appearances against the current roster.

Eduardo Rodriguez is slowly starting to come around, and he too had a rough outing last time out against a tough Twins lineup. In most of E-Rod’s starts that he’s supposed to do well, he does. Even though it goes against the thinking of the White Sox winning tonight, E-Rod has an 18-2 record since the beginning of last season against teams with a losing record – it still means that he pitches well when he’s supposed to.

At the end of the day, Giolito is the more-dominant pitcher between the two and we’re getting a huge plus-money opportunity with him on the mound – especially when the Red Sox just struggled over the weekend with the lowly Blue Jays. E-Rod has allowed six homers over his last 25 1/3 innings of work, and that could ultimately be the difference.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 4 – Boston Red Sox: 2 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Over 11.5 (-108) – Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs
ATL: Julio Teheran – R (5-5, 3.40 ERA/1.26 WHIP)
CHC: Jon Lester – L (6-5, 4.13 ERA/1.35 WHIP)

Ohhh yes, take the over on this game and never look back. 15 mph winds are blowing out to center field with two solid offenses in great spots. Vegas has taken note of the extreme hitter’s conditions and elevated the IRTs for both teams – Cubs: +0.6, Braves: +0.4 – as well as the game total from 10.5 to 11.5.

Julio Teheran was on a nice run of outings, but the Mets abused him for eight hits and six runs to go along with three walks over four innings of work. Back on April 3, Teheran allowed nine baserunners against the Cubs but did manage to get out of that outing allowing only one run. With the conditions not in his favor tonight, some of those opportunities could turn into damage real quick.

The Cubs rank ninth in all of baseball in the power-metric ISO (.194) against right-handed pitching. Also, the Braves bullpen ranks 10th-worst in xFIP (4.78) over the last 14 days.

Jon Lester has been getting beat up with regularity, allowing seven or more hits in seven of the last nine outings. To make matters worse, one of the best hitting teams against left-handed pitching makes their way to Wrigley Field. Over the last 21 days, the Braves have a massive .441 xwOBA – the metric that is calculated by quality of contact. For reference, about .335 is average. A lot of those quality-contact balls should be flying over the ivy tonight

Hopefully, you’re watching this game since it’s on MLB TV tonight. You can miss the NBA awards show, I’ll fill you in on Twitter.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 12 – Chicago Cubs: 10 *  

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 23

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 118-101-4 (54%) *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (ML: -200/1.5-run line: -114)
DET: Daniel Norris – L (2-5, 4.40 ERA/1.41 WHIP)
CLE: Zach Plesac – R (2-2, 2.56 ERA/0.98 WHIP)

The Indians are 7-1 against the Tigers this season, and it’s not looking like things will get any better for the visitors today. This will be the 11th time Cleveland is favored by -200 or more, with an 8-3 record in those games.  On the other hand, Detroit has been struggling, with losses in seven of the last eight contests.

Zach Plesac, the nephew of former MLB pitcher Dan Plesac, has lived up to the namesake early in his career. The rookie righty has allowed two runs or fewer in four of the last five starts – one run or fewer in three of the five. Detroit’s numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days are absolutely dreadful — .287 wOBA, .145 ISO and 25.4% K-rate.

On the flip side, Cleveland’s offense has been the exact opposite against left-handed pitching. The Tribe has a magnificent .400 wOBA, .292 ISO and 14.4% K-rate in that split over the last 21 days.

While Daniel Norris hasn’t exactly gotten beat over the head recently, it’ll be tough for him to keep up that level of effectiveness today against an Indians team that is rocking and rolling — pun intended to the city of Cleveland.

Lastly, we’ve got a huge difference in bullpens here, as the Indians own the league’s best ERA (3.21) and the Tigers have the fifth-worst (5.18).

I don’t mind taking the Indians on the moneyline or 1.5-run line here — they get it done either which way.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 6 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[1:35 p.m. EST] Atlanta Braves (1.5-run line: -106) at Washington Nationals
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (8-1, 2.12 ERA/
WSH: Austin Voth – R (season debut)

Mike Soroka has looked a little more human after his unreal start to the season, but it’s still been enough to keep getting the Braves wins. The young Canadian righty only threw 68 pitches in his last outing, so look for him to be fully charged up for this one.

Atlanta is a perfect 10-0 when Soroka starts against teams with a losing record this season and the team also own a 10-2 record on Sundays. The Braves have won the last eight of Soroka’s starts. Also, the Nationals have somehow never seen Soroka before, giving him the advantage of the unknown – it’s a thing.

Austin Voth gets a spot start for the Nationals today, in place of Joe Ross. Washington needed Ross to pitch last night in an emergency because of all the runs that were scored, and the fact that its bullpen has been taxed all week – including the doubleheader on Wednesday. Voth’s season down in Triple-A hasn’t been great, as he’s 3-5 with a 4.40 ERA.

This is all great news for the Braves’ offense today, and Vegas has taken note by elevating their IRT an entire run from 4.6 to 5.6 – the third-highest on the entire slate. Atlanta’s offense also owns a massive .385 wOBA and .260 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 10 – Washington Nationals: 3 *

[1:35 p.m. EST] San Diego Padres (ML: -142) at Pittsburgh Pirates
SD: Joey Lucchesi – L (6-4, 3.74 ERA/1.11 WHIP)
PIT: Steven Brault – L (3-1, 4.40 ERA/1.55 WHIP)

The Padres will be looking to avoid the sweep and look to have the right guy for the job in Joey Lucchesi, who is coming off a masterful seven-inning shutout performance against the Brewers. Lucchesi has been solid, allowing two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts, and he already stifled this Pirates’ offense a little more than a month ago by allowing only two runs over seven innings.

Not to mention, the Pirates own the league’s third-lowest wOBA (.284) against left-handed pitching. Pittsburgh’s .282 xwOBA against lefties over the last 21 days indicates they’re not seeing the ball well either and with Lucchesi’s herky-jerky motion won’t make things any easier.

It’s certainly an optimistic outlook for the Padres, as this will be their second-highest moneyline odds on the road this season.

Steven Brault goes for the Pirates, and he’ll have trouble against a Padres’ lineup featuring seven right-handed bats. As a team, San Diego owns a massive .256 ISO against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

Look for Lucchesi’s big outing to lead the way to a Padres’ victory today.

* Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres: 7 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, June 22

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 117-99-4 (54.2%) *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Over 11 (-110) – Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
TOR: Derek Law – R (0-1, 5.16 ERA/1.59 WHIP)
BOS: Brian Johnson – L (10.00 ERA/2.67 WHIP)

These two teams have met seven times so this season, and the total has gone over in six of them – in the only misnomer, the total pushed at 10 runs. Not to mention, Blue Jays’ games have gone over the total in eight of the last 10, with one push mixed in there.

We’re going to see plenty of bullpen pitching today, and that’s a beautiful sign for the total going over. The Blue Jays’ bullpen owns the second-worst WHIP (1.66) and fifth-worst ERA (5.97) while the Red Sox’ actually owns the fourth-best ERA (3.11), but 10th-worst WHIP (1.41).

The one thing that sort of nullifies Boston’s bullpen ERA is that Brian Johnson will be starting the game. He has been atrocious this season in limited action, as seen by his massive 2.67 WHIP. In nine innings pitched this season, Johnson has allowed 18 hits (3 HR), six walks and 10 runs.

It’s to put much stock in this because we likely won’t see much of Johnson today, but Toronto has improved mightily against left-handed pitching, with a .358 wOBA and .229 ISO over the last 21 days.

It’s good to see the Red Sox offense getting back on track, scoring at least seven runs in six of their last eight games. Guys like Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers (he’s out of the lineup today, could still pinch hit late) have led the charge over this span, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez join in on the party against lesser pitching today.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 10 – Toronto Blue Jays: 8 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies (1.5-run line: +108)
MIA: Elieser Hernandez – R (0-2, 3.95 ERA/1.17 WHIP)
PHI: Vince Velasquez – R (2-4, 4.71 ERA/1.52 WHIP)

We’re not going with numbers on this one – straight gut.

After a dreadful performance on their recent road trip, and then again last night on Chase Utley Night, I fully expect this Phils team to break out in a major way tonight. They have lost nine of the last 11 games, including five straight – enough is enough.

Vince Velasquez should be highly motivated to give the Marlins plenty of fits today. The Phils have not been shy about needing help at the back of the rotation, and VV will be looking to give them a reason to not make a deal. Velasquez has been solid over his career against the Marlins, and their current roster owns a .167 batting average and .237 on-base percentage against him lifetime.

Elieser Hernandez takes the mound for Miami, and he’s been fairly effective in limited action this season. However, he does have a knack to getting beat up by left-handed bats and the Phils have no shortage of talent in that regard. Look for Bryce Harper, Jay Bruce and the red-hot Brad Miller to get Philly on the scoreboard early, thus leading the way to get into that Marlins bullpen which has the seventh-highest WHIP (1.48) in MLB over the last 14 days.

Once again, this is more of a gut call, in that this Phillies team is absolutely due for a win. With the Marlins being less of a power hitting team, those 12 mph winds blowing in from left field aren’t going to do them any favors.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 8 – Miami Marlins: 3 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-102) – Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
CIN: Luis Castillo – R (7-1, 2.26 ERA/1.11 WHIP)
MIL: Jhoulys Chacin – R (3-8, 5.60 ERA/1.52 WHIP)

I don’t understand the Brewers being favored in this game but it does lead me to believe that Jhoulys Chacin will finally have a good outing. Not to mention, the total going under has the highest grade in the SK Trend Confidence rating today, as Reds’ games have produced that result in 15 of the last 17 contests.

It was a positive sign for Chacin that he allowed only two runs and matched a season-high seven strikeouts in his last outing, a 2-0 loss at San Diego. He did pitch well against Cincy back on April 2, allowing only three hits, three walks and two runs while striking out six over 5 1/3 innings.

There’s also positive thinking in the fact that Chacin has much better numbers at Miller Park, as opposed to pitching on the road:

– Home: (5 starts) 2-1, 3.76 ERA/1.25 WHIP – .213 opposing batting average
– Away: (8 starts) 1-7, 6.94 ERA/1.71 WHIP – .295 opposing batting average

Luis Castillo doesn’t need any introduction, but I’ll give it to you anyway. Over his last 18 innings, the electric righty has allowed eights and four runs while striking out 21.

The knock, though, is that he’s allowed 12 walks in that span of innings. That could possibly be what Vegas possibly sees as the differentiator.

Nonetheless, Cincy’s bullpen is one of the best in baseball, and that’s a big reason why a lot of these totals have been going under.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 4 – Cincinnati Reds: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, June 21

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 114-96-4 (54.2%) *

 

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-108) – Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies (1.5-run line: -128)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara – R (3-6, 3.73 ERA/1.39 WHIP)
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (6-1, 4.89 ERA/1.51 WHIP)

Both teams have been absolutely dreadful against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, with the Marlins registering slightly worse numbers. Their .086 ISO in that split will certainly be hard to overcome, especially with 12 mph winds blowing in from left field.

If you think runs at Citizens Bank Park are always at a premium, that’s just not the case – eight of the last 12 games there have gone under the total.

Aaron Nola certainly hasn’t been at his best recently (and most of this season), but this matchup against the Marlins is one that he’s dominated in the past. Over his last five starts (33 innings) against Miami, the righty has allowed only six runs and a 1.00 WHIP. While the matchup lends some optimism, Nola has been much better at Citizens Bank Park over the course of his career. His numbers certainly signal that this season, as evidenced by the 3.51 ERA at home and 7.28 ERA on the road.

Philly’s offense really sputtered in the last game of the Atlanta series and then throughout the Washington series. As I mentioned at the top, their numbers aren’t great against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days – .280 wOBA and 25% K-rate. On the season as a whole, the Phils now own the eighth-worst wOBA (.309) against righties.

Sandy Alcantara was snake-bitten by his defense in a recent start, but he’s allowed one earned run or fewer now in four of the last six starts. The righty has only faced Philly twice in his career, with one glamorous outing and one bad outing – that one coming this season. However, given the Phils’ current state of affairs at the plate and the wind blowing in tonight, I’m not too worried about Alcantara getting beat over the head.

I like the Phils to get the victory, but it’ll have to come in a tight game. Philly is 5-2 against Miami this season, with a four of the seven games going under the total. The SK Trend Confidence rating is also high on the Phils to get this win on the 1.5-run line, and that plays right into the narrative.

* Final Score Prediction – Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8 (-118) – Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (5-5, 3.35 ERA/1.08 WHIP)
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (5-6, 3.41 ERA/1.12 WHIP)

Vegas knows that a big-time pitching performance is coming from one of these studs tonight, as both teams had their IRTs decreased – Indians: -0.6, Tigers: -0.4. Also, it’s not an overwhelming sign, but it does help that there will be 7 mph winds blowing in from center field.

What Trevor Bauer did against the Tigers in his last outing will be greatly appreciated if he does it again. The quirky righty had his first complete-game shutout of the season in the eight-strikeout performance, en route to an 8-0 Indians’ victory. It does appear like Bauer could be finally getting back on track after a shaky start to the season. In Bauer’s previous outing, he allowed one run over 7 2/3 innings and that’s now back-to-back performances that notched Indians’ wins.

It’s also worth noting that Cleveland’s bullpen has the best ERA (3.36) in baseball.

Matt Boyd is coming off his worst performance of the season, which was quite shocking since it was against a Royals’ team that is woeful against left-handed pitching. I’m not going to write him off because he still has elite swing-and-miss stuff, notching 112 strikeouts in 88 2/3 innings this season. Boyd has actually held Cleveland to one run or fewer in four of his seven career performance – in three other games, Boyd held them to two, three and six runs. There’s a history of goodness here.

Cleveland is 5-1 against the Detroit this season, with under registering a 4-1-1 record in those games. The Indians have also outscored the Tigers 38-12 this season.

The total going under is the fifth-highest SK Trend Confidence rating on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 5 – Detroit Tigers: 1 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-118) – Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
CIN: Sonny Gray – R (3-5, 3.77 ERA/1.21 WHIP)
MIL: Chase Anderson – R (3-1, 4.05 ERA/1.39 WHIP)

There are very strong trends for the total going under in Milwaukee tonight, and it’s actually the second-highest graded pick in our system. It’s also good news that both teams have seen their IRTs decrease – Brewers: -0.2, Reds: -0.3 – since the open.

Five of the six Brewers-Reds games this season have gone under the total, and both starting pitchers have a great history against each team. Not to mention, 15 of the last 16 Reds’ games have gone under the total, while Brewers’ games have suffered the same fate in three of the last four.

Let’s start with Sonny Gray, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all but one of his 14 starts this season. In his last outing against Milwaukee, Gray matched a season-high nine strikeouts en route to a Cincy 3-0 victory. He could have another big performance like that one, considering the Brewers own a 31.3% K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

Behind Gray is the Reds’ bullpen, who has allowed the fewest homers (28) and second-lowest ERA (3.40) in baseball.

Chase Anderson doesn’t have a long leash, compared to most MLB pitchers, so we’re essentially relying on the Brewers’ bullpen for half the game. They have the 10th-best ERA (3.38) and are right around that same area for the season.

It’s not like Anderson has been getting crushed, but he should do just fine against a Reds’ lineup that owns a dreadful .266 xwOBA against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days. After that, the Brewers’ bullpen will pick it up from there.

I don’t necessarily like a side here, but a low-scoring game is certainly on the horizon.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 3 – Cincinnati Reds: 2 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers (ML: -190/1.5-run line: +120)
COL: German Marquez – R (7-3, 4.57 ERA/1.23 WHIP)
LAD: Walker Buehler – R (7-1, 3.06 ERA/0.92 WHIP)

We’ve got a tale of two pitchers heading in opposite directions, and that’s why the SK Trend Confidence rating is the highest on the Dodgers tonight. LA’s moneyline and 1.5-run are the top trends of any other selections on the entire day’s slate.

Walker Buehler has been downright filthy, allowing one earned run or fewer in six of his last starts. The young righty has done some of his best work lately against some of the better bats in the National League – Cubs and D-Backs. Over his last 22 innings of work, Buehler has allowed one run and a ridiculous 0.45 WHIP while striking out 26 batters.

Sure, the Rockies have plenty of talented bats, but they have their fair share of games with a high strikeout total. Not to mention, their current roster has a combined .189 batting average and .267 on-base percentage against Buehler lifetime.

On the other hand, German Marquez is getting absolutely ripped by opposing hitters. Over the last three games/17 innings (Cubs x2, Padres), he’s allowed 22 hits (5 HR), seven walks and 19 runs. Yikes! A good number of these Dodgers’ hitters have a solid history against Marquez, and it’s setting up to be another good night for the boys in blue.

The Dodgers are 31-9 at home and 21-5 at home against teams with a right-handed starting pitcher this season.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 6 – Colorado Rockies: 0 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, June 19

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 113-94-4 (54.6%) *

[6:40 p.m. EST] Over 9 (-102) Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners
KC: Brad Keller – R (3-8, 3.97 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
SEA: Marco Gonzales – L (7-6, 4.50 ERA/1.39 WHIP)

The only trend with an A-grade in today’s SpreadKnowledge Trend Confidence rating is for the total going over in this game. It makes plenty of sense, considering 11 of the Mariners’ last 14 games have done such.

A big reason for today’s optimistic thinking is Marco Gonzalez, who has been ripped at T-Mobile Field this season. The lefty owns a 6.53 ERA and 1.60 WHIP to go along with an opposing batting average of .312 in eight home starts. In comparison, Gonzalez owns a 2.77 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with an opposing batting average of .244 on the road. Apparently, someone likes hotel linens.

The numbers for Gonzales are also brutal in daytime starts, with a 6.75 ERA and 1.86 WHIP with a .331 opposing batting average in six such outings.

If Gonzales gets beat up early, Seattle’s bullpen hasn’t been much better of late. Only the Orioles’ pen has allowed more runs over the last seven days, and only two pens have allowed more homers over the same stretch.

KC’s bats have been performing very well over the last three games, with a total of 23 runs in that stretch.

Brad Keller will take the mound for the Royals, and while he’s pitched well over the last two starts, I don’t think he’ll keep it up too much longer. Allowing baserunners have been an issue at times this season and the Mariners have plenty of speed on basepaths to make things uncomfortable for him. I don’t see Keller getting destroyed, but certainly allowing enough runs to comfortably get us over the total.

Vegas elevated the total of this game up to 9.0, from its original spot 8.5, with the IRTs increased for both teams – Mariners: +0.3, Royals: +0.2.

* Final Score Prediction: Kansas City Royals: 8 – Seattle Mariners: 4 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates (1.5-run line: +100)
DET: Jordan Zimmermann – R (0-4, 5.93 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
PIT: Trevor Williams – R (2-1, 3.33 ERA/1.13 WHIP)

We rarely talk about the Pirates putting a thumping on teams, but tonight seems like a good time to start. Pittsburgh had more than a full-run IRT increase from 4.3 to 5.6, which is usually a glowing sign of success. The Pirates’ -200 number on the moneyline is their highest (by far) of the season. It’s also worth noting they’re a whopping 22-8 in the last 30 inter-league games.

A big reason for the massive favoritism is Trevor Williams, who owns a 2-0 record, 0.95 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in three career starts against the Tigers. One of those starts came back in April, as Williams allowed only two runs over six innings en route to getting the win.

Since this is Williams’ first start in a little over a month, I doubt he’ll go more than five innings – maybe six if all goes well. Not to worry, Pittsburgh’s bullpen has allowed the second-fewest runs (4) in MLB over the last seven days, and that’s even with facing the 10th-most batters (107) over that span.

Speaking of returning after a long stint on the injured list, Jordan Zimmermann will be doing the same. Things weren’t going well at all before that stint, and Zimmerman got rocked in his rehab outing in Triple-A on Thursday. The righty allowed four runs, including two homers, over 4 2/3 innings down on the farm for Toledo.

The big difference here is that Pittsburgh has done well against Zimmermann over the course of his career. In 98 plate appearances, the Pirates’ current roster owns a combined .326 batting average and .990 OPS to go along with six homers against him.

All in all, Vegas has spoken with the massive moneyline and IRT increases. I’m taking the Pirates on the 1.5-run line and shedding some money to lay out. The SK Trend Confidence rating also has a strong B+ grade on the total going over in this game, and that should have a lot to do with the Pirates’ success.

* Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates: 10 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-106) – San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
SF: Drew Pomeranz – L (2-6, 6.43 ERA/1.73 WHIP)
LAD: Rich Hill – L (4-1, 2.60 ERA/1.13 WHIP)

The SK Trend Confidence rating has a very strong lean (B+ grade) for the total going under in this game. Reason being, 13 of the Dodgers’ last 18 games have suffered that fate.

Rich Hill has been outstanding over his last six starts, allowing two runs or fewer in all of them – the only misnomer went for three runs. The strikeouts are starting to come back for Hill, who now has a total of 59 in 52 innings of work this season. San Fran has been downright awful against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days, with a .237 wOBA, .046 ISO and 28% K-rate. Good luck with all that.

While Hill doesn’t typically go too deep into games, that’s alright. The Dodgers’ bullpen owns the lowest ERA in MLB over the last seven and 14 days – another big reason why the total has been going under in a lot of their games recently.

We haven’t looked at Drew Pomeranz as a solid pitcher most of this season, but that hasn’t been the case lately. The lefty now has back-to-back appearances of allowing no earned runs, with one of those performances coming against these same Dodgers. Not to mention, the current Dodgers’ roster owns a combined .179 batting average and .235 on-base percentage in 101 career plate appearances against Pomeranz.

Vegas likes the under here, moving the total from 8.0 to 7.5 and both teams’ IRTs suffer because of that – Dodgers: -0.3, Giants: -0.2.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 5 – San Francisco Giants: 1 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, June 18

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 112-92-4 (55%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-116) – Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (6-5, 4.31 ERA/1.45 WHIP)
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (5-5, 4.11 ERA/1.22 WHIP)

Jake Arrieta has not been at his best of late, and his control has been a big reason why. The veteran righty has issued nine walks over his last two outings (10 2/3 innings), despite the Phillies getting the win in each of them. Not to mention, the road has not been kind to Arrieta, as he’s allowed five runs in each of his last two starts away from Citizens Bank Park.

The Phils’ bullpen has been downright awful of late. After coughing up Friday’s game in Atlanta, three of their pitchers combined to give up 15 runs in Sunday’s loss to the Braves. Stretching it out a bit longer, the Phils’ bullpen has the second-worst ERA (9.27) in MLB over the last seven days.

Arrieta could very well find himself in a spot where he’s forced to pitch more innings, even if things aren’t going well.

Aside from a complete-game shutout against the lousy Marlins, Patrick Corbin has not performed well at lately. Over his last three starts (12 2/3 innings), the lefty has allowed 22 hits and 20 runs (16 earned) – yikes!

The top six hitters in each team’s lineup have been making solid contact over the last 21 days against the handedness of starting pitcher on the mound tonight. Not to mention, five of the last six games for both teams have gone over the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 8 – Philadelphia Phillies: 7 *

[7:20 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (+100) – New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (+106)
NYM: Jacob deGrom – R (3-6, 3.38 ERA/1.13 WHIP)
ATL: Julio Teheran – R (5-4, 2.92 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

There’s owning teams, and then there’s straight up OWNING teams. Julio Teheran does somersaults out of bed on days he knows the Mets are on the schedule. The veteran righty owns a 2.16 ERA/1.04 WHIP against them lifetime. New York’s current roster owns a putrid .203 batting average and .266 on-base percentage against Teheran with a 25.2% K-rate.

Teheran has been immaculate over his last eight starts, allowing one earned run or fewer and no homers in that stretch.

That’s how good Teheran has been against the Mets, that I didn’t lead off this game with reigning Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. After a rough start to the season, he’s rebounded nicely by allowing two runs or fewer in eight of the last nine starts. deGrom also has solid numbers against tonight’s opponent, with a 1.86 ERA/1.02 WHIP lifetime. The current Braves’ roster owns a .235 batting average, .292 on-base percentage and 29.2% K-rate against him.

All of this is great news for the total going under tonight, but the one thing that could derail this pitcher’s duel is the Mets’ bullpen – they have been downright awful over the last couple of days. However, I find it quite intriguing that New York is favored in this game, considering how well Teheran has pitched against them in the past – not to mention, his current form. I do think that means deGrom ends up having a solid performance, but the game could certainly be lost by the bullpen.

Lastly, there are some great trends in the Braves’ favor tonight – or bad luck for the Mets. The Mets are 1-7 after allowing 10 runs in the previous game, 0-6 when deGrom is on the mound after a loss in the previous game and 4-10 in all games that deGrom starts this season. Yikes!

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 4 – New York Mets: 1 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-104) – Milwaukee Brewers (1.5-run line: -102) at San Diego Padres
MIL: Brandon Woodruff – R (8-1, 3.87 ERA/1.16 WHIP)
SD: Logan Allen – L (MLB debut)

Brandon Woodruff has pitched incredibly well this season and the Brewers have won his last nine starts – eight of them coming by two runs or more. Tonight, he’ll face a Padres offense that owns the third-lowest IRT (3.3) on tonight’s slate. Vegas is already telling us that we’re going to see another low-scoring affair, as both teams have seen a decrease in IRTs (Brewers: -0.4, Padres: -0.6) and the game total also went from 8.5 to 7.5. In my opinion, this is all fantastic news for Woodruff in one way or the other.

Logan Allen makes his MLB debut tonight, and he’s more of a needed body, as opposed to someone that deserved a call-up from Triple-A. Allen owned a 4-3 record and 5.15 ERA for Triple-A El Paso, but the Padres’ bullpen was absolutely taxed after a crazy three-game series in Colorado over the weekend.

Luckily for the under, Milwaukee’s bats haven’t been rocking and rolling like they have most of the season. Over the last 21 days, they own a well-below average .315 wOBA against left-handed pitching and did just get shut down by Joey Lucchesi last night.

All in all, we’re looking for a dominant performance from Woodruff once again, with Allen doing just enough to carry us to a low-scoring affair.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 5 – San Diego Padres: 1 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, June 17

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 110-91-4 (54.7%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10 (-108) – Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (6-5, 4.31 ERA/1.45 WHIP)
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (5-5, 4.11 ERA/1.22 WHIP)

Vegas is loving some runs in this game, elevating the IRTs (implied run totals) for each team – Nationals: +0.7, Phillies: +0.3.

Jake Arrieta has not been at his best of late and the control has been a big reason why. The veteran righty has issued nine walks over his last two outings (10 2/3 innings), despite the Phillies getting the win in each of them. The road has not been kind to Arrieta either, as he’s allowed five runs in each of his last two starts away from Citizens Bank Park.

The Phils’ bullpen has been downright awful of late. After coughing up Friday’s game in Atlanta, three of their pitchers combined to give up 15 runs in Sunday’s loss to the Braves. Stretching it out a bit longer, the Phils’ bullpen has the second-worst ERA (9.27) in MLB over the last seven days.

Arrieta could very well find himself in a spot where he’s forced to pitch more innings, even if things aren’t going well.

Aside from a complete-game shutout against the lousy Marlins, Patrick Corbin has been brutal. Over his last three starts (12 2/3 innings), the lefty has allowed 22 hits and 20 runs (16 earned) – yikes!

According to the advanced metric xwOBA, the top six hitters in each team’s lineup have been making solid contact over the last 21 days against the handedness of starting pitcher on the mound tonight. Not to mention, five of the last six games for both teams have gone over the total.

FYI: This game might get off to a late start with a 50% chance of rain in the forecast from 7-9 p.m. I don’t see that causing any issues for either offense.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 8 – Philadelphia Phillies: 7 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 (+100) – Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
TB: Yonny Chirinos – R (7-2, 2.88 ERA/0.93 WHIP)
NYY: Masahiro Tanaka – R (4-5, 3.58 ERA/1.18 WHIP)

While Yankee Stadium isn’t exactly the place we usually look for the total going under, there is a nice matchup of dueling righties on the mound tonight.

The Spread Knowledge Trend Confidence rating has the under on this game as the highest grade of the evening. A big reason is that nine of the last 13 Rays’ games have gone under the total. Also, the total has dropped slightly from 9.5 to 9.0, and the Yankees’ IRT dropped from 5.2 to 4.8 – usually a good sign for the under.

Masahiro Tanaka hasn’t been at his best lately, but he does have fantastic lifetime numbers (0.96 career WHIP) against the Rays. That includes 13 innings of work against them this season, allowing only eight hits and one run while striking out 13 batters. In his last six starts against the Rays, Tanaka has allowed two runs or fewer in five of those – one run or fewer in four of them.

Yonny Chirinos has made a smooth transition to becoming a legit starter, and he’s allowed two runs or fewer in six of the last seven outings – one run or fewer in four of the last six. The electric righty has done a fine job of limiting runs against the Yankees, allowing no runs in two of his four career meetings – the latest coming at Yankee Stadium.

Both of these teams have incredibly-talented bullpens, so I certainly won’t bet against them. Look for this to be a low-scoring game that comes down to the very end.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 4 – New York Yankees: 3 –*

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-112) Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds
HOU: Wade Miley – L (6-3, 3.14 ERA/1.16 WHIP)
CIN: Luis Castillo – R (6-1, 2.20 ERA/1.09 WHIP)

It’s a fantastic matchup of arms, as Wade Miley and Luis Castillo go up against one another, in a ballpark that usually makes pitchers weep. The total going under in this game is also one of the highest grades on the SK Trend Confidence rating.

Let’s start with Castillo, who has allowed one earned run in each of his last three starts. It’s quite telling that the Astros are underdogs, given that they’re 1-4 when having that label this season. Obviously, Castillo and his dominance play a big part in tonight’s line, but Houston is also coming off a 12-0 shellacking at the hands of Toronto yesterday. Sure, the Astros’ lineup is missing some key pieces, but you can’t be getting beat by the Blue Jays like that.

If, for some reason, Castillo doesn’t make it too deep into this start, no worries. The Cincy bullpen is leading a number of categories in advanced metrics over the last seven days.

Miley has been a pleasant surprise for the Astros this season, especially of late, allowing two runs or fewer in seven of the last nine starts. I don’t see him being as dominant as Castillo tonight, but certainly enough to not let this run total get out of hand. I’d be willing to bet that someone like Eugenio Suarez or Yasiel Puig tag him for a long ball, and that’ll ultimately be the difference.

I’m giving the Reds the win in this one, on the strength of a dominant performance from Castillo. It’s also a good sign for him that Houston loses its DH playing in the National League park.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 4 – Houston Astros: 1 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics (1.5-run line: -114)
BAL: Andrew Cashner – R (6-2, 4.63 ERA/1.38 WHIP)
OAK: Mike Fiers – R (6-3, 4.63 ERA/1.14 WHIP)

We’ve got trends galore in our favor for the A’s over the Orioles tonight – listen up!

Oakland is favored by its highest moneyline of the season tonight at -230. The A’s have been favored by -200 or more only twice this season, winning both games and scoring a total of 20 runs. Vegas knows what they’re doing.

The A’s will face Andrew Cashner, who they’ve beat up on a consistent basis. The veteran righty has a 6.83 ERA/1.69 WHIP against Oakland lifetime, and a lot of the hitters on the current roster have fantastic BvP numbers against him.

Mike Fiers has been fantastic over his last nine starts, allowing three runs or fewer each time out. He’s been even better against the Orioles, with a 3-1 record and 2.08 ERA/0.88 WHIP lifetime. Fiers also has great numbers at home this season, going 4-2 with a 0.95 WHIP. Over the last two seasons, Fiers’ team is 19-5 when he pitches at home and 16-7 when he pitches against teams with a losing record.

Oakland has been relaxing here on the West coast, while Baltimore had to travel across the country yesterday for tonight’s game. Look for them to experience plenty of jet-lag and the A’s to get a comfortable victory.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics: 7 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 16

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 108-90-4 (54.5%) *

[1:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles (ML: +138)
BOS: Brian Johnson – L (1-0, 12.71 ERA/2.29 WHIP)
BAL: John Means – L (6-4, 2.60 ERA/1.10 WHIP)

After two straight games of being massive underdogs, the Orioles find themselves with a much more reasonable number today at +138. And for good reason, as John Means takes the mound for Bird Gang. The rookie southpaw has been simply fantastic at home, going 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA/0.90 WHIP and opposing batting average of .180 this season.

Means has been quite effective against Boston this season, allowing only two runs and a 0.66 WHIP in 12 innings – one start each at home and on the road. The Red Sox really haven’t been that great against lefty pitching and actually own an 8-13 in games where the opposition has a left-handed starter on the mound.

The Orioles have seen a lefty starter in each of the first two games of this series, so they are more than prepared to face Brian Johnson after going against Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale. Johnson will be making his first appearance since early April because of elbow inflammation, so there’s certainly a chance he could be rusty in his return.

Of course, we are running the risk of relying on the Orioles’ bullpen, which has been absolutely ripped to shreds in this series and all season. However, Means should be able to give them some wiggle room, and possibly even get a longer leash than usual to avoid the sweep.

* Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles: 4 – Boston Red Sox: 3 *

[1:10 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals (ML: -122/1.5-run line: +134) at New York Mets
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (5-3, 3.47 ERA/1.50 WHIP)
NYM: Jason Vargas – L (3-3, 3.68 ERA/1.36 WHIP)

It’s a good sign for the Cards, considering the IRTs are moving in opposite directions for these teams: Cardinals: +0.3, Mets: -0.3.

Whatever Dakota Hudson has been drinking or eating since mid-May, he definitely needs to keep it up. Hudson has now allowed two runs or fewer in each of the last five starts, including only one run in each of the last three. The Red Birds will also benefit from Jeff McNeil and Wilson Ramos getting the day off.

Jason Vargas looked human in his last start, and today’s matchup against St. Louis won’t be an easy one. A few of these guys have seen Vargas well over the course of their careers, including leadoff hitter Matt Carpenter, who is 6-for-7 against him lifetime. If Carp is getting on base with great regularity today, that’ll set the tone for the Cards’ lineup.

The 14 mph winds blowing out to right-center field will be a factor here as well. Hudson is an extreme ground-ball pitcher, which won’t affect him that much, while Vargas and his fly-ball ways could be playing with fire here.

I’d feel safer going with the Cards on the moneyline today, but I don’t mind hitting up that 1.5-run line at +134 since the team has won by two runs or more in Hudson’s last five starts.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 6 – New York Mets: 2 *

[1:20 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 (-106) Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
PHI: Cole Irvin – L (2-1, 5.48 ERA/1.27 WHIP)
ATL: Mike Foltynewicz – R (6.02 ERA/1.32 WHIP)

Four of the five games in this season series have gone over the total – so what’s another one? Vegas likes that idea, as the IRTs have been increased for both sides (Braves: +0.4, Phillies: +0.2).

Cole Irvin had a nice feel-good story, getting the win in his MLB debut on Mother’s Day at Kansas City. Since then, there hasn’t been a whole lot to be excited about, but he has faced some difficult opponents in the Rockies, Cubs and Dodgers. Unfortunately, it doesn’t get any easier today, as the Braves own Top-10 numbers in most advanced metrics against left-handed pitching.

There’s not a ton of info on it just yet, but it looks like Vince Velasquez will start the game as the “opener” and then Irvin will come in behind. By the way, the current Braves’ roster owns a .362 batting average, .415 on-base percentage and .993 OPS lifetime against Velasquez.

Mike Foltynewicz goes for Atlanta and this has been a brutal start to 2019. Folty has been at his absolute worst in SunTrust Park this season, going 0-3 with a 7.18 ERA/1.40 WHIP and 11 homers allowed in 31 1/3 innings.

I’ll give the nod to the Braves today, considering J.T. Realmuto and Jay Bruce are out of the lineup. The Phils’ bullpen was outstanding last night, but they still have terrible numbers across the board this season, and completely blew the game on Friday.

All in all, we’re in a great position for runs today at an extreme hitter’s park with mediocre pitching (at best) and questionable bullpens.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 8 – Philadelphia Phillies: 6 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, June 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 106-89-4 (54.4%) *

 

[4:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (1.5-run line: -200) at Baltimore Orioles
BOS: Chris Sale – L (2-7, 3.52 ERA/0.96 WHIP)
BAL: Dylan Bundy – R (3-7, 4.50 ERA/1.23 WHIP)

The Orioles are a putrid 3-26 as a home underdog of +175 or more over the last two season. Yikes! That mark in the loss column is about to get bigger as Chris Sale takes the mound for the Red Sox. The lanky lefty is 7-2 with a 2.37 ERA/0.99 WHIP over his career when starting against the Orioles. There has been more success recently, as Sale has allowed one run or fewer in five of the last six starts against them.

Sale has been on top of his game recently, with at least 10 strikeouts in seven of his last nine starts. Just over a month ago, he dominated this same Bird Gang bunch, allowing one run over eight innings while striking out 14. Since this is a mid-day game the hitters might have to deal with some shadows, and that’ll make it nearly impossible to hit a pitcher like Sale. You should certainly give some thought to laying money on his 8.5 K-prop at -144 today.

Baltimore just struggled mightily last night against fellow lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, and now own less-than-stellar .309 xwOBA/.166 ISO numbers versus left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

Dylan Bundy takes the mound for the Orioles and he does not have a great history against the opposition, going 3-7 with a 5.25 ERA/1.50 WHIP lifetime. The splits aren’t in his favor either, as Bundy is 1-4 with a 4.54 ERA at home and 0-5 with a 5.70 ERA in day-time starts.

Hopefully, Boston can rip Bundy early and get to the Baltimore bullpen. Their 9.13 ERA (highest in MLB) over the last seven days was inflated quite a bit after last night’s whooping.

The Red Sox look to have finally gotten back on the good foot offensively, scoring a total of 29 runs over the last four games. Mookie Betts should be back in the lineup after getting the night off – he has four career homers against Bundy.

It’s a ton of money to be laying on the 1.5-run line, but Boston loves it here in Baltimore, winning 16 of the last 18 meetings at Camden Yards.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: -124)
KC: Glenn Sparkman – R (1-2, 3.58 ERA/1.30 WHIP)
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (9-2, 1.92 ERA/0.97 WHIP)

The Twins did it against last night, beating the weak and improving their mark to 28-10 this season against teams with a losing record. That number should go up some more as they put Jake Odorizzi on the mound. Minnesota has won the last 10 games that Odorizzi started, with eight of them coming by two runs or more.

It’s ridiculous to fathom the amount of success Odorizzi has produced this season. The veteran righty has started 13 games in 2019 – he’s allowed three runs or fewer in 12 of them, two runs or fewer in 11 of them, one run or fewer in eight of them, and no runs in six of them. Whoa!

KC’s offense has been sputtering quite a bit over the last 21 days against right-handed pitching, with an anemic .281 wOBA, .133 ISO and 24.7% K-rate. They’ve also scored three runs or fewer in five of the last six games, and two runs or fewer in four of the last six.

Glenn Sparkman starts for the Royals and his lack of ability to get strikeouts could very well get him in trouble against a potent Twins lineup. Minnesota has some of the best advanced-metrics in MLB this season, so I expect them to give Odorizzi more than enough run support in this game.

I mentioned this number last night, but it still resonates for this matchup – the Twins are 37-16 in games against right-handed starters while the Royals are 16-34. KC also owns the worst road record in baseball at 8-24.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 7 – Kansas City Royals: 1 *

[9:07 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics (1.5-run line: -110)
SEA: Wade LeBlanc – L (3-2, 5.31 ERA/1.37 WHIP)
OAK: Frankie Montas – R (8-2, 2.84 ERA/1.18 WHIP)

For the grand finale of the evening, we’re taking it out West. The A’s are massive -230 favorites on the moneyline, which is actually their highest of the season. Rather than lay all of that money, we’ve got some nice trends in our favor to cut that in half by going with the 1.5-run line.

Frankie Montas is probably the best pitcher in baseball that no one knows about. He tied his season high of 10 strikeouts in his last outing and has notched at least nine of them in three of the last five starts. Not to mention, Montas has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 10 of his 13 starts this season.

Wade LeBlanc goes for the Mariners, and he’ll be facing an A’s team that has a .405 wOBA and .229 ISO against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Particularly, it’s been the bottom of Oakland’s lineup doing most of the damage over that span, and it’s not like the top four hitters in its lineup (Semien, Chapman, Piscotty, Davis) are a bunch of slouches either. LeBlanc got hit around pretty well by them in his last meeting and I expect plenty of the same in this one.

If the A’s do get to LeBlanc early, their offense will have the benefit of facing a Mariners bullpen that has allowed the most runs (26) and the second-highest ERA (8.56) over the last seven days.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics: 7 – Seattle Mariners: 3 *

 

<> Key terms used in today’s writing:

– ISO = Isolated Power (A sabermetric computation used to measure a player’s raw power. This distinguishes a batter with a .300 batting average and many singles, as opposed to a batter with a .300 average and more extra-base hits… typically, .200 is where you want to be in ISO.)

– wOBA = Weighted On-Base Average (A version of on-base percentage that accounts for how a player reached base. The value for each event is determined by how much it is worth in relation to a run created – Ex: a double is worth more than a single, a triple is worth more than a double, a home run is worth more than a triple, etc… about .320 is league average)

– xwOBA = Expected Weighted On-Base Average (The same thing as wOBA, just removing defense from the equation. An easy way of looking at xwOBA, would be to just imagine there are no fielders on the playing surface.)

– wRC+ = Weighted Runs Created Plus (Runs created + adjusting the number to account for important external factors – like ballpark or ERA… 100 is league average)