Tag: NBA Bets

NBA Finals & MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, June 13

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

* 2019 MLB Record: 104-85-4 (55%) *

NBA Finals – Game 6:
Under 211.5 (-110) – Toronto Raptors (+2.5, -110/ML: +124) at Golden State Warriors

Game 5 was a cruel twist of everyone’s emotions. The Warriors led nearly the entire game, but that was followed by a Raptors run that gave them a 103-97 advantage with about five minutes to go. Then, just as they’ve done so many times in the past, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson engineered a meticulous 3-point shooting exhibition and took the lead late to come away with the 106-105 victory.

Let’s be honest – Toronto has dominated the majority of the series. Even in the games that Golden State won, they barely hung on for dear life at the end. Sure, the Warriors got a huge jolt of energy from Kevin Durant’s presence in Game 5, but knowing he’s gone has to put them in a different mindset. Unfortunately, that mindset could be detrimental as the Splash Brothers know they need to do literally everything on offense.

Expect Nick Nurse to formulate a gameplan that makes life difficult on Curry and Thompson all night. In my opinion, you HAVE TO make anyone but these two guys beat you.

We know this will be the final game at Oracle Arena and the crowd will be the loudest it has ever been. However, I don’t think that’ll be enough to help the worn-down and beat-up Warriors tonight. Kawhi Leonard has the perfect mentality, in that a riled-up crowd isn’t something that will get to him. Expect the rest of his teammates to follow suit and hoist the trophy at the end of the night.

Lastly, the SK Trend Confidence rating likes the total to go under in this game, as three of the last four games in this series have suffered the same fate.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Raptors: 103 – Golden State Warriors: 99 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-104) – Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
TEX: Adrian Sampson – R (5-3, 3.72 ERA/1.33 WHIP)
BOS: David Price – L (4-2, 2.70 ERA/1.05 WHIP)

Vegas has already declared this as a low-scoring game, dropping the IRTs for both teams – Rangers: -0.6, Red Sox: -0.3. The Rangers’ IRT actually comes in as the largest drop for any team on today’s entire schedule.

David Price has been simply magnificent, and you know this because he actually pitched well at Yankee Stadium two starts ago, a place that’s been an absolute nightmare for him. Not including the one start where Price came out in the first inning at Houston (due to sickness), the veteran lefty has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts – the one misnomer, he allowed three. In addition, Price has a microscopic 1.08 ERA in four starts at Fenway Park this season.

The Rangers’ offense has not been great against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days, with a .302 xwOBA and .127 ISO.

After an absolutely brutal start to the season, Adrian Sampson has allowed exactly one run in four of his last five starts – the one misnomer, he allowed three. Not to mention, Sampson has struck out 18 batters in his last 16 innings of work. It also helps matters for the under that Boston’s offense has only produced an average of three runs per game over the last seven contests.

All in all, both starting pitchers are at the top of their respective games and Vegas has made the proper adjustments on the run total. 10 of the Rangers’ last 14 games have gone under the total, while Red Sox games have suffered the same fate in four of the last five.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 4 – Texas Rangers: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 (-110) – Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays
LAA: Tyler Skaggs – L (4-6, 4.97 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
TB: Ryan Yarbrough – L (5-2, 5.31 ERA/1.09 WHIP)

Both of these teams have been doing a great job against left-handed pitching and also have a great history against each of these pitchers.

Let’s start with the Angels, who smashed Ryan Yarbrough for six runs (two homers) in 5 1/3 innings at Tropicana Field last season. Los Angeles has been great against lefties all season, but even more recently owns a robust .400 wOBA and .269 ISO over the last 21 days.

Yarbrough is scheduled to come in after the “opener” that Tampa Bay occasionally rolls out for an inning or two. Good news for the total going over tonight, as Yarbrough owns a 7.25 ERA at Tropicana Field – 3.15 ERA on the road.

The Rays don’t necessarily have the power numbers against lefties, but they are getting on base a great deal, registering a .347 wOBA over the last 21 days. In that same start where Yarbrough got ripped last season, Tyler Skaggs did even worse, allowing 10 runs over 3 1/3 innings. Much like Yarbrough’s splits working in our favor, Skaggs has a much worse 6.23 ERA on the road, compared to his 3.58 ERA at home.

Vegas adjusted the run total from 8.5 to 9.0, with each team getting a slight increase on the IRT, so that is good news that things are trending in that direction. Look for history to repeat itself and plenty of cleats to touch home plate tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 7 – Tampa Bay Rays: 6 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers (ML: -126) at Kansas City Royals
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (5-4, 3.08 ERA/1.04 WHIP)
KC: Homer Bailey – R (4-6, 5.90 ERA/1.51 WHIP)

Matthew Boyd had a few tough matchups of late but still managed to hold his own against some of the league’s best. In fact, he’s notched at least seven strikeouts in each of five outings, and that includes going against teams like the Twins, Braves and A’s. That’s bad news for a Royals team that is striking out 27.8% of the time against lefties over the last 21 days. Not to mention, their offense against lefties has sucked all year, owning the third-worst wOBA (.281) in baseball this season.

Boyd did skill this KC team a month ago, striking out nine Royals over seven innings en route to a win.

On the other side, Homer Bailey gets ripped with great regularity. Bailey has some of the worst advanced metrics of any pitcher on tonight’s slate, setting up a huge night for the Tigers’ offense. While they haven’t scored a ton of runs lately, the heart of the order has been making solid contact against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days and that bad luck is bound to turn around, especially against a pitcher like Bailey.

Look for Detroit to get back on the good foot and Boyd to lead the way with a dominant performance tonight. The Tigers are 6-2 against the Royals this season and Bailey’s teams are a dreadful 6-27 in games that he’s started over the last two seasons.

* Final Score Prediction: Detroit Tigers: 6 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, June 10

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

NBA Finals – Game 5: Golden State Warriors (-1, -105/ML: -114) at Toronto Raptors

The city of Toronto is ready to celebrate an NBA championship for the first time in its history, but it’ll have to wait until Thursday or Sunday… or never.

Kevin Durant is back for the Warriors and it’s really anyone’s guess how he’ll perform. Personally, I don’t think he’s going to make a HUGE difference, but his presence could be enough to get Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson a little more wiggle-room to shoot. KD is a body the Raptors certainly have to account for, and you wonder if they’ll end up putting Kawhi Leonard on him instead of Klay or Steph. Ohhhhh, the mind games – I love it!

The Raptors’ length has proven to be detrimental for the Warriors, and adding KD will only space things out a bit more for the Splash Brothers, who both need to be at the top of their games – we’ve seen them do this plenty of times.

I do think it’s a fascinating optic that this Warriors team has been on both sides of the 3-to-1 coin. They know exactly what works to get back from that deficit, and also what allowed the Cavs to come back on them.

Toronto won’t make this easy on Golden State with the rawkus crowd, but if KD gets off to a hot start look for them to be neutralized a bit. I wasn’t going to underestimate the champs without KD, but now that they have him, I’m ready to make the ballsy prediction.

We’re going back to Oakland for Game 6 – and then coming back for Game 7!

* Final Score Prediction: Golden State Warriors: 115 – Toronto Raptors: 107 *

* 2019 MLB Record: 99-81-4 (55%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-104) – Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
TEX: Mike Minor – L (5-4, 2.55 ERA/1.22 WHIP)
BOS: Chris Sale – L (2-7, 3.84 ERA/1.00 WHIP)

Chris Sale shrugged off a horrific start to this season and even threw a complete-game shutout his last time out against the Royals. Tonight, he’ll be taking on a Rangers team that owns the fourth-highest K-rate (26.4%) against left-handed pitching. Sale has truly thrived on the home crowd, striking out 48 batters in 28 1/3 innings at Fenway Park this season.

If all of that wasn’t enough, Sale is 3-0 in three starts against Texas since coming to Boston. The electric lefty also has at least 12 strikeouts in four of his last five starts against the Rangers.

While Sale has amazing numbers in this matchup, let’s not count out Mike Minor here. Outside of a rough outing on Opening Day, the veteran lefty has been simply magnificent this season with seven quality starts since the beginning of April.

Minor has been better at home, but this matchup against the Red Sox is one that could even out the splits. They were dazzled by lefty Blake Snell yesterday and now own some less than gaudy numbers against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days, including a 25% K-rate over that span.

I’m going with the under of 7.5 runs tonight, considering Vegas dropped the IRT (implied run total) -0.5 runs for both sides. Sale’s K-prop sits at 9.5 (-112 for both over/under) and I don’t mind taking the over on that one either.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 4 – Texas Rangers: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays (1.5-run line: -122)
OAK: Tanner Anderson – R (season debut)
TB: Charlie Morton – R (7-0, 2.30 ERA/1.06 WHIP)

There’s plenty of data behind the Rays, including two of the highest SK Trend Confidence ratings of the night in our system.

Tanner Anderson is making the first start of his MLB career, and he registered a 6.26 ERA down in Triple-A this season. Tampa’s offense looked outstanding in Boston over the weekend, and now own a zaftig .360 xwOBA (contact metric) against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Tampa’s +0.6 IRT increase is the highest of any team on tonight’s slate, and it also helps that Oakland’s bullpen ranks second-worst in xFIP and SIERA over the last 14 days.

It’s truly unbelievable, but Charlie Morton has not registered a loss over his last 20 starts, allowed three runs or fewer in 18 times and two runs or fewer in 15 times. Look for the A’s to struggle with playing catch-up for Anderson’s apparent rough start.

We’re taking the Rays with resounding confidence.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 7 – Oakland A’s: 2 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, June 7

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

NBA Finals – Game 4: Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors (-4.5, -110/ML: -196)

Here we go! The Golden State Warriors find themselves in a familiar 1-2 hole, a place they have climbed out of before three times en route to a title in previous years. I do think the safer route to go is with the Warriors on the moneyline, but it also means we’re going to have to put up a lot in order to do so.

Golden State will have Klay Thompson back in the lineup, albeit not at 100 percent. We can even make the argument that Steve Kerr knew exactly what he was doing, resting Klay in Game 3 and sacrificing the battle for the war. Regardless, his presence will force Toronto to focus on him, and give the Warriors’ role players more room to operate on the offensive end. Look for DeMarcus Cousins to be more focused and take a vengeful approach to this contest after Marc Gasol thoroughly outplayed him in Game 3.

The Raptors have plenty of firepower that has shown up as the playoffs have gone along, but let’s pump the breaks a bit. Danny Green had an outstanding Game 3, and you have to think the Warriors get all up in his grill. Kawhi Leonard will always be the focal point of the Raptors’ offense but look for Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala to turn up the defensive intensity a bit.

Speaking of Dray, we know he always turns it up a bit when the Warriors’ backs are against the wall. FanDuel Sportsbook has his odds to get a triple-double at +220 tonight. Essentially, they’re saying it’s going to happen – the next closest player is Stephen Curry at +2600. If that’s the case, and Dray gets the trip-dub, the Warriors are probably going to win this game.

How many times have we seen the Warriors look like they were dead in the water, and then pop up right back up with the good stuff? I’d love to take the Warriors at -4.5, but Klay’s status is one that could ultimately determine how close the game is. Let’s play it safe…

* Final Score Prediction: Golden State Warriors: 110 – Toronto Raptors: 107 *


* 2019 MLB Record: 96-78-4 (55.2%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at New York Mets (1.5-run line: +116)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (4-4, 5.33 ERA/1.59 WHIP)
NYM: Jacob deGrom – R (3-5, 3.49 ERA/1.15 WHIP)

Jacob deGrom certainly hasn’t been at his best this season, but tonight’s opponent will certainly be a welcome sight. The right-handed ace has absolutely dominated the Rockies over the course of his career, as the current roster owns a putrid .167 batting average and .189 on-base percentage in 111 plate appearances. I think the most amazing takeaway from this is that deGrom has allowed only one earned run in 30 innings when pitching against the Rockies at Citi Field.

Antonio Senzatela got away with facing a downtrodden Blue Jays offense in his last start, but he did allow nine hits in each of the two outings before that. Not to mention, this guy can’t stop walking people – in the month of May, Senzatela issued 15 free passes over 29 2/3 innings.

deGrom is going to dominate the Rockies once again, as evidenced by the zaftig moneyline given by Vegas. I do think we can steal some money here, going with the 1.5-run line (at +114) as opposed to the massive moneyline which is at -210.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 5 – Colorado Rockies: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 7.5 (-106) – Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (6-1, 1.41 ERA/0.91 WHIP)
MIA: Jose Urena – R (4-6, 4.14 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

Jose Urena has actually pitched very well of late, with a quality start in each of his last five outings. However, the last time he failed to do so came against the same Braves’ team he’ll see tonight – Urena allowed five runs over six innings in that game. In fact, Atlanta has performed quite well against the righty in recent history, with at least four runs against him in each of the last three meetings — five runs against him in each of the last two meetings.

Before scoring one run in Pittsburgh on get-away day yesterday, Atlanta scored 33 runs in the previous four games.

Mike Soroka finally showed signs that he’s human in that last start against the Tigers, allowing four runs (three earned) over 6 2/3 innings. The Marlins also had a one-run get-away day yesterday, but they too went bananas in the previous four games, scoring 42 runs over that span. I’m not saying Soroka is going to get beat over the head, but I do think Miami can put up at least three runs here and add to the total.

All in all, I feel like the 7.5 total is certainly a level that could be reached tonight. Both of these teams have been hot offensively, and Atlanta’s history of success against Urena is well-documented.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 6 – Miami Marlins: 3 *

[10:15 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -144) at San Francisco Giants
LAD: Clayton Kershaw – L (5-0, 3.20 ERA/1.05 WHIP)
SF: Drew Pomeranz – L (1-6, 8.08 ERA/1.87 WHIP)

Clayton Kershaw takes his unbeaten record into Oracle Park tonight against a Giants team that ranks dead-last in wOBA (.268) against left-handed pitching. Yes, this is the same Giants team that allowed Jason Vargas to throw a complete-game shutout against them earlier this week. That, right there, is really all the evidence I need, and I reeeeeally should just end it there.

But I won’t. I’m an elite-level sports betting journalist… or so it says on my Hinge profile.

Kershaw has owned San Francisco over the course of his career, going 22-10 with a 1.70 ERA, six complete games and five shutouts in 44 starts. Not to mention, the current Giants’ lineup has a putrid .198 batting average and .231 on-base percentage against Kershaw in 360 plate appearances. It’s no surprise that the Giants’ 3.0 IRT is the lowest on tonight’s slate.

Drew Pomeranz takes the mound for the Giants and he’s glad the calendar has flipped to June – not that it’ll do him any good. The month of May was an absolute disaster as he wound up with a 19.16 ERA (yes, that is correct), 22 runs allowed in 10 1/3 innings.

The Dodgers haven’t been outstanding against left-handed pitching of late, but seeing Pomeranz should increase their metrics quite a bit. After all, the Dodgers are ninth in wOBA (.332) against lefties this season, but their .307 mark over the last 14 days in that split is just more of a testament to the pitchers they’ve faced.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 1 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, June 5

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

Game 3, NBA Finals: Toronto Raptors (+4.5, -105) at Golden State Warriors

It’s incredibly difficult to gauge this game without truly knowing the status of Klay Thompson. The part that is even more frustrating is that this decision likely won’t be up to him – rather, the Warriors’ training staff. Klay’s mobility will be tested out in pregame warmups, and a decision will be made at that time.

If Thompson is unable to go, it’ll be a huge advantage for the visiting Raptors, who actually won here in Oakland by 20 points back in December. Not only does he provide an unlimited outside range, but Klay’s defense is just flat out dominant. Losing two big aspects like that could be too much for even the almighty Warriors to overcome.

Aside from the first six minutes of the third quarter in Game 2, you can argue that the Raptors have controlled this series. Their length has proven to be difficult for the smaller Warriors, and if Klay does indeed miss tonight’s game, you have to believe the Raptors will throw box-and-1 and double-team defenses at him all night.

It is worth noting, the Warriors have either lost or won by single-digits in five of their seven home playoff games during this run. For the final score prediction, I’ll give it to Raptors with the assumption Klay sits out. If he’s in, I think the Warriors win, but without covering the spread.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Raptors: 108 – Golden State Warriors: 104 *

 

* 2019 MLB Record: 95-77-4 (55.2%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Minnesota Twins (ML: -130) at Cleveland Indians
MIN: Martin Perez – L (7-2, 3.71 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
CLE: bullpen game

By the way, I just want to mention how utterly furious I am at the onset. I had this gorgeous article written up for this game and how Carlos Carrasco was going to get beat over the head. Well, at about 3:00 p.m. EST, Carrasco was scratched and announced that he’ll be heading to the injured list.

Sigh. The life of a sports betting writer…

Our system has a B+ for Minnesota on the moneyline, and that was even when Carlos Carrasco was supposed to take the mound. Now, it’ll be a bullpen game for the Indians. Tyler Clippard will take the first inning and then it’s all up in the air from there. It is worth noting, though, that the Indians’ bullpen has the sixth-worst xFIP (expected fielding-independent pitching) over the last seven days. Oliver Perez is pretty much the only exception, but he probably won’t be used since he’s already pitched 4 2/3 innings over the last seven days, including throwing an inning last night.

Minnesota has been crushing baseballs all season, leading MLB in homers. Looking at it in a closer prism, though, the Twins’ projected lineup owns a massive .354 wOBA (weighted on-base average) and .278 ISO (power metric) against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. I assume they’ll some mostly right-handers tonight.

Martin Perez’s last start was his worst outing of the season, allowing six hits and six runs over 2 2/3 innings. Prior to that disaster, Perez had allowed three runs or fewer in six straight starts, while averaging about 6 1/3 innings per outing over that span. It also helps that the Indians own the sixth-lowest wOBA in baseball against left-handed pitching.

Behind Perez is the Minnesota bullpen, which ranks in the top-three of MLB of most advanced pitching metrics over the last 14 days.

Two trends to look at heading into tonight:
– Twins are 15-4 after a loss this season
– Twins are 21-10 in road games this season

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 5 – Cleveland Indians: 2 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-104) – Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
BAL: John Means – L (5-4, 2.80 ERA/1.10 WHIP)
TEX: Mike Minor – L (5-4, 2.74 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

Two outstanding lefties take the mound at Globe Life Park tonight. I’m usually nervous about taking the under in Texas with humid conditions, but not with John Means and Mike Minor going toe-to-toe.

Let’s start with the homey Minor, who owns a 2.50 ERA in six home starts this season. Unfortunately, he would’ve had better numbers, but a trashy fifth-inning defensive performance and a homer that scraped the foul pole in his last outing thwarted that. Discredit that one bad inning and ride Minor to a low total tonight. Yeehaw!

On the other side, Means has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his seven starts since being placed in the starting rotation. In fact, he allowed only run in four of those starts. Means has already pitched well in environments like Camden Yards, Coors Field, Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium – so what’s the big deal adding some Globe Life Park to the mix? Not to mention, the Rangers have a putrid .280 xwOBA and .139 ISO over the last 14 days against left-handed pitching.

Even with the humid conditions, Vegas dropped the IRTs for both sides (Orioles: -0.2, Rangers: -0.3) while the game total went from 9.5 to 9.0 as well. Neither team’s bullpen is one that I want to trust, but I’ll give the Rangers the edge at home after dropping one last night.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 4 – Baltimore Orioles: 3 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-102) – Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
CIN: Anthony DeSclafani – R (2-3, 4.97 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (4-3, 3.94 ERA/1.58 WHIP)

Weather permitting, we should have ourselves a good ole fashioned slugfest at Busch Stadium. The conditions are great for hitting, with temperatures in the upper-80s and humidity playing a big factor.

Vegas has taken notice, increasing the IRTs for both sides (Cardinals: +0.7, Reds: +0.4) and the game total from 8.5 to 9.5. Both of these teams have been playing to a lot of totals going under of late, so it makes the Vegas movement even more intriguing.

Anthony DeSclafani, from the great state of New Jersey, has been getting ripped over his last five starts. The righty has allowed 31 hits, 19 runs and nine over the last 23 1/3 innings of work. The heart of the Cards’ order has hit DeSclafani well over the course of their careers, so look for that to continue on Wednesday.

Dakota Hudson has been doing a good job of keeping the ball on the ground, but a lot of these Reds’ hitters can still make life difficult on him. Cincy did put eight baserunners (seven hits, one walk) up against him in their previous meeting. Not to mention, they have a fantastic .347 wOBA and .213 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 7 – Cincinnati Reds: 5 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 2

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

[8:00 p.m. EST] NBA Finals – Game 2:
Under 213 (-110) – Golden State Warriors (ML: +112) at Toronto Raptors

Everyone was surprised by the outcome of Game 1, when the Raptors came out and dominated a rusty Warriors squad. It’s interesting to see nearly the same spread in consecutive games, but I’m calling Vegas’s bluff here.

I feel like too many people have already forgotten just how amazing this Warriors team is. They did a fantastic job on Kawhi Leonard, forcing him to give up the ball at nearly every turn. Expect Golden State to continue doing that, while Draymond Green turns up the intensity on Pascal Siakam. As Dray said after Game 1, he has to do a better job of making life difficult on Siakam – and he probably will.

The Warriors didn’t give Stephen Curry too much help in the series opener but expect that to change tonight. Hopefully, the refs let Klay Thompson get away with more of those “seven steps to the hole” moves. Not that they’ll need it though…

SK’s Trend Confidence rating also likes the under in tonight’s game. It makes sense, considering the game total has dropped two points and the Warriors defense should be much better.

* Final Score Prediction: Golden State Warriors: 103 – Toronto Raptors: 99 *

* 2019 MLB Record: 91-72-4 (55.8%) *

[2:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-116) – Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
CLE: Zach Plesac – R (0-0, 1.69 ERA/0.94 WHIP)
CHW: Lucas Giolito – R (7-1, 2.85 ERA/0.98 WHIP)

Lucas Giolito has been outstanding for the White Sox this season, with a sub-1.00 WHIP and 69 strikeouts over 60 innings. It’s been so good for Giolito, that he’s allowed one run or fewer in each of his last five starts – all White Sox wins. Not only that, but Chicago has outscored its competition by a combined score of 19-5 over that span.

That goes to show you how few runs are being scored in some of these White Sox games. In fact, the total has gone under in 18 of the team’s last 25 games. We can also thank their bullpen, who has the fifth-best xFIP (3.72) in MLB over the last seven days.

Zach Plesac did a great job in his MLB debut last time out, allowing one run over 5 1/3 innings to a talented Red Sox lineup. Chicago’s offense has struggled mightily of late against right-handed pitching with .295 wOBA and .113 ISO numbers over the last 14 days. It probably won’t help the White Sox, considering they’ve never seen Plesac before and have limited footage on him. The Indians haven’t necessarily been pounding the ball either and got skilled by Giolito back on May 7 which ended up being a 2-0 White Sox win.

I’m looking for another low-scoring affair like there’s been in each of the last two games in this series. After all, the under has one of the highest SK Trend Confidence ratings (B+) of the day with this game

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 3 – Cleveland Indians: 2 *

[3:10 p.m. EST] Over 12.5 (-106) Toronto Blue Jays (ML: +124) at Colorado Rockies
TOR: Aaron Sanchez – R (3-5, 3.75 ERA/1.52 WHIP)
COL: Antonio Senzatela (3-4, 5.81 ERA/1.65 WHIP)

Vegas has spoken loudly by increasing the total by an entire run on this game, with both IRTs increasing as well: Blue Jays: +0.8, Rockies: +0.3. Just like the IRT increase, Toronto’s moneyline jump (+147 to +124) is the highest for any team on the slate.

The real key to the over today is Rockies’ pitcher Antonio Senzatela, who has a 6.17 ERA and .304 opposing batting average at Coors Field this season. Not only that, but Senzatela has been seen very well by opposing hitters in any setting of late, allowing 18 hits and five walks over his last 9 1/3 innings of work.

Aaron Sanchez will give it a go for the Blue Jays, and he’s been dealing with some finger issues of late. You have to wonder how far Sanchez will be pushed in this game, considering he has thrown 64 pitches or fewer in three of the last four starts. That’d be great news for the Rockies, as the Blue Jays’ bullpen has the sixth-highest WHIP (1.62) in MLB over the last seven days.

The Rockies have been excellent, going 8-1 on this current 10-game homestand, but it’s time for them to drop one to this pesky Blue Jays bunch. Those IRT and moneyline increases for Toronto are just way too telling here.

Toronto games have gone over the total in eight of the last 12, with two of those misnomers being pushes. Colorado games have gone over in seven of the last 11. It also helps that the wind will be blowing out at about 10 mph to left field.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 10 – Colorado Rockies: 7 *

[7:00 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-116) – Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
BOS: David Price – L (2-2, 2.83 ERA/1.03 WHIP)
NYY: C.C. Sabathia – L (3-1, 3.48 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

Hey, if you don’t like NBA Finals basketball… what the hell is wrong with you? Or, if you got two TVs or will find yourself at the local watering hole, ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball is a fantastic game to bet the over on tonight.

The Yankees absolutely own David Price, but luckily, he won’t have to deal with Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton. Unfortunately, Gary Sanchez and Luke Voit are still around and that’ll never be good news for David Price. Lifetime, Sanchez is 6-for-13 with five homers against him, while Voit is 3-for-5 with two homers.

Even though some of these younger Yanks don’t have a ton of experience against Price, rest assured that those vets will relay their knowledge down to them.

On the other side, old age might finally be catching up to CC Sabathia. The veteran lefty has now allowed 11 homers in his last 31 1/3 innings of work. While CC has historically pitched well against the Red Sox, this current version of him is certainly not in peak form.

This ballpark plays well for power hitters, so expect there to be quite a few long balls tonight. I’m not necessarily loving one side over the other, but definitely over the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – New York Yankees: 6 *

MLB & NBA Playoffs Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 21

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

NBA Playoffs Pick: Under 217 (-110) – Milwaukee Bucks (-2.5, 110) at Toronto Raptors

The two highest SK Trend Confidence ratings (both B+) of the night in NBA are the Bucks and the under.

It took two overtimes for the Raptors to finally defeat the Bucks, and also for the total to go over in Game 3 – what a heartbreaker! However, it’s worth noting how big of a swing the spread is from Game 3 to Game 4, making it a five-point jump in a favor of Milwaukee.

One of the main reasons these Bucks have been so successful is their head coach Mike Budenholzer. It’s true, we typically see Milwaukee get out to slow starts, but we also see this team finish strong. Budenholzer has made the necessary adjustments multiple times throughout these playoffs, most notably after the Bucks’ only loss of these playoffs before Sunday night. Milwaukee came out in Game 2 of the second round against the Celtics and wiped them off the map for the entirety of that series.

The Bucks are 10-2 in these playoffs, covering the spread in each one of their wins. I expect them to remind the Raptors who had the NBA’s No. 1 defensive efficiency rating during the regular season. Budenholzer should have more adjustments to bottle up a fatigued Kawhi Leonard, who is dealing with a slight leg injury.

#FearTheDeer! #BuckNasty!

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks: 102 – Toronto Raptors: 88 *

* 2019 MLB Record: 73-48-4 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-104) – New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
NYY: Domingo German – R (8-1, 2.50 ERA/0.95 WHIP)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-5, 5.58 ERA/1.29 WHIP)

Whatever the Yankees are doing against David Hess, they need to keep on doing it. In his last two starts against the Evil Empire, Hess has allowed seven homers in 11 innings of work – yikes! Once Hess leaves the game, it doesn’t get any better, as the Orioles’ entire team has allowed an MLB-high 97 homers in 47 games.

OK, great. So, we know where most of the offense is coming from.

The Orioles will likely have a tougher time against Domingo German, but it is their second time seeing him over the last six days. German’s last two road starts (@SF, @TB) haven’t been great, as he’s allowed 10 hits, three walks and seven runs over 11 innings of work. Not to mention, Baltimore has done a fine job offensively against New York in their matchups this season.

Clearly, the way to go here would be betting the Yankees, but their moneyline (-250) and 1.5-run line (-162) odds are a bit pricey. Six of the 10 Orioles-Yankees matchups this season have gone over the total, and we’re looking at a situation where it’ll be seven of 11 at the end of the night.

The SK Trend Confidence rating has an A-grade for the over at 10.5, which is the highest grade of any game on today’s MLB schedule. Luckily for us, the total is actually sitting at 9.5, so that speaks heavy volumes to how many runs we should see tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 10 – Baltimore: 4 *

[7:07 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-110) – Boston Red Sox (1.5-run line: +100) at Toronto Blue Jays
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (4-2, 4.89 ERA/1.43 WHIP)
TOR: Marcus Stroman – R (1-6, 2.95 ERA/1.29 WHIP)

Speaking of high grades, the Red Sox and the total going under all both get a B+ for tonight’s game. We’ve got plenty of reasons to believe so.

For one, the Blue Jays’ offense has been brutal lately, especially against left-handed pitching. Against southpaws over the last 14 days, Toronto has an anemic .197 wOBA and .067 ISO. Overall this season against lefties, they rank third-worst in MLB with a .268 wOBA and .107 ISO.

Not only has their offense been bad, but the Blue Jays have been even worse for Marcus Stroman. The righty’s numbers aren’t bad at all, but his team has scored three runs or fewer (mostly fewer) in seven of his 10 starts this season.

On the other side, the Red Sox have won each of the last seven games that Eduardo Rodriguez has started, with six of those wins coming by two runs or more. Despite losing two games to the Astros over the weekend, the Red Sox have seemingly turned the corner with a 14-5 record over the last 19 games.

It’s good news for the under on this game, as the total dropped from 9.0 to 8.5. The Blue Jays’ IRT dropped -0.4, while the Red Sox move slightly downward to -0.1.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 6 – Toronto Blue Jays: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-126) – Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (3-1, 2.25 ERA/0.92 WHIP)
DET: Spencer Turnbull – R (2-3, 2.40 ERA/1.25 WHIP)

The moneyline number for this game is quite interesting, considering Caleb Smith is probably the best pitcher in baseball that no one gives a damn about. Nonetheless, Tigers’ starting pitcher Spencer Turnbull should have a solid outing tonight — Hell, mostly everyone going against the Marlins does. All in all, I think the most likely outcome here is the total going under 7.5 runs.

Let’s start with Smith, who has allowed two runs or fewer in all but one of his eight starts this season – that one misnomer, he allowed three runs. Because the Marlins’ offense is so atrocious, the lefty has had to do literally everything imaginable to keep this team in ball games. In fact, six of Smith’s eight starts this season have had seven total runs or fewer scored in the entire game.

Not to be outdone, Turnbull has only allowed five earned runs over his last six starts. As mentioned before, the Marlins’ offense is terrible, and over the last 14 days, they have a .255 wOBA and 30.3% K-rate against right-handed pitching. Overall this season, Miami ranks near- or dead-last in almost every advanced metric against right-handed pitching.

This game will likely come down to the bullpens late, but I’ll say that the Tigers get the win, based on the awkward moneyline in their favor.

* Final Score Prediction: Detroit Tigers: 3 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

MLB & NBA Playoffs Betting Value Picks for Friday, May 17

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

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NBA Playoffs Pick: Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5, -110)

It took the Toronto Raptors three quarters to finally show themselves but did come through for us in relinquishing the game on Wednesday night. Just as we saw, the Milwaukee Bucks are a more well-rounded team from top to bottom and that’ll be more evident tonight.

The Bucks shot 25% from 3-point range, while Kyle Lowry of the Raptors went 7-for-9 from behind the arc — and Milwaukee still won. Believe me, neither of those will happen tonight, and the Bucks will coast to victory.

SK Trend Confidence rating believes the Bucks with the 6.5-point spread is the best value pick of the evening. Basically, you don’t even need to waste all that money ($270 to win $100) betting the Bucks outright when you can just sit back and watch them easily devour the Raptors.

– – –

* 2019 MLB Record: 66-39-4 (62.9%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 8 (-116) – Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals (moneyline: -155)
CHC: Cole Hamels – L (3-0, 3.08 ERA/1.07 WHIP)
WSH: Max Scherzer – R (2-4, 3.64 ERA/1.15 WHIP)

The Nationals got a nice +0.5 boost to their implied run total (IRT) and their moneyline odds increased from -124 to -155, which is third-highest on the slate. Since Gerardo Parra came to DC, the Nats’ offense got a jolt of energy and more help is on the way with Trea Turner returning off the injured list tonight, while Juan Soto and Anthony Rendon have also returned in recent days. Parra won’t be in the starting lineup tonight against the lefty, but he could have an impact pinch hitting later in the game.

Max Scherzer is on the mound for the Nationals and it’s a bit surprising that they’ve only won two of his nine starts this season. Look for that trend to get bucked as the Cubs’ current roster has a combined 38.6% K-rate in 101 career plate appearances against Scherzer – Javy Baez and Kris Bryant have struck out a combined 14 times in 21 plate appearances – Yikes!

Cole Hamels goes for the Cubbies, and he’s done a fine job of limiting damage from opposing teams. The veteran lefty has been slightly worse away from Wrigley Field, allowing an opposing batting average of 66 points higher on the road than at home. I don’t think Hamels gets absolutely rocked tonight, but we could certainly see a score similar to the one Chicago lost by in Cincinnati last night.

It’s also interesting to note that Scherzer has a K-prop of 9.5 tonight, with +120 juice on the over. I’ve found myself gravitating more to these props lately, so that’s just some side action to throw on top.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 5 – Chicago Cubs: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics (1.5-run line: -116) at Detroit Tigers
OAK: Frankie Montas – R (4-2, 2.78 ERA/1.26 WHIP)
DET: Daniel Norris – L (2-1, 2.63 ERA/1.41 WHIP)

It has certainly been a rough stretch for the Tigers, allowing 8.2 runs per game over their last nine contests. Yesterday’s 17-3 thumping appears like it could happen all over again, as evidenced by the +0.6 IRT and moneyline (-145 to -180) increases for the A’s — both are the highest on tonight’s slate.

Oakland has Top-5 numbers against left-handed pitching this season in nearly every advanced-metric and owns a .365 ISO over the last 14 days — the highest for any split on tonight’s slate. That’s all good news, considering Detroit’s bullpen has pitched a whopping 35 innings over the last seven days – eight more innings than any other team over that span. Look for Daniel Norris to possibly get extended a little more, and rocked in the process.

Although he’s been allowing too many baserunners lately for my liking, Frankie Montas is an absolute stud. He gets a fantastic matchup against a Tigers’ team near or dead-last in most advanced metrics against right-handed pitching. Looking at their numbers over the last 14 days in that split, it doesn’t get much better, as they own a putrid .256 wOBA and 25.4% K-rate.

The Tigers have lost the last four games by a combined deficit of 32 runs, and their last 11 losses have been by two runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland A’s: 10 – Detroit Tigers: 3 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels (1.5-run line: +124)
KC: Brad Keller – R (2-4, 4.47 ERA/1.43 WHIP)
LAA: Matt Harvey – R (1-3, 6.69 ERA/1.41 WHIP)

It was a good start to the season for Brad Keller, but things have certainly taken a turn for the worst. Keller has allowed at least five runs in three of his last four starts with the only misnomer coming against the Tigers, who are the worst hitting team in the American League.

The Angels received a +0.5 IRT increase, which is tied for second-highest on tonight’s slate. Makes sense, considering their outstanding .407 wOBA, .238 ISO and 14.7% K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Over the course of the season against righties, the Angels rank first in K-rate (15.7%), second in wRC+ (120) and fourth in wOBA (.346).

Matt Harvey has looked much better of late, allowing two runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. One of those outings came against the Royals, going seven innings and allowing two hits, three walks and one run while striking out five. KC’s offense has not been at its best of late, scoring one run or fewer four of the last five games and in five of the last seven.

Keller’s last four starts have all been Royals’ defeats by three runs or more, while the team has suffered some convincing losses already this week. Let’s take a chance here and get plus-money on our bet for this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 7 – Kansas City Royals: 3 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-128) – Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (-158)
PIT: Jordan Lyles – R (3-1, 2.09 ERA/1.09 WHIP)
SD: Joey Lucchesi – L (3-2, 4.57 ERA/1.35 WHIP)

I almost feel like we can take last night’s game preview, copy/paste and replace the pitcher’s names. Don’t worry, I won’t.

Not much changed with the Pirates and their struggles against left-handed pitching on Thursday, as they posted a total of two runs against Eric Lauer and the Padres’ bullpen. Pittsburgh faces another lefty, Joey Lucchesi, and he comes into tonight’s start in better form than Lauer did. Certain trends have already followed teams from the beginning of this season, and this one is no different for the Pirates – they just simply can’t hit lefties well.

The Padres do have the third-highest IRT (+0.4) and moneyline (-130 to -158) increases on the slate, which is interesting. They have well below-average advanced metrics against right-handed pitching and Jordan Lyles has been quite solid this season, allowing two runs or fewer in all but one of his seven starts this season.

We can look to the first five innings total of 4.5 when figuring out how this game will play out. There’s a huge -160 amount of juice on the under there, so look for the Padres to capitalize on the Pirates’ bullpen late once again. Not trying to play God here, just looking at the numbers!

* Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres: 4 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

MLB & NBA Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 59-38-4 (61%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -230) at Detroit Tigers
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (6-1, 2.51 ERA/0.82 WHIP)
DET: Gregory Soto – L (0-1, 15.75 ERA/2.75 WHIP)

So, this is awkward. Justin Verlander will return to the only MLB city he called home before accepting a trade to Houston back in 2017.

Verlander has been absolutely phenomenal this season, allowing one run or fewer in six of his nine starts, while Detroit’s offense ranks near the bottom of MLB in nearly every advanced metric against right-handed pitching. Over the last 14 days, the Tigers have well below-average numbers in the same split.

This just isn’t going to end well for Detroit, losers of the first two games in this series by a combined score of 19-5. Houston’s offense is rocking and rolling over the last four games, with a total of 45 runs – the same amount as Miami has scored since April 21. Not to mention, the Astros’ offense ranks near the top of MLB in nearly every advanced metric, while owning absolutely gorgeous numbers against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

I talked about it yesterday, but it’s quite telling when you see a team with zaftig juice on the 1.5-run line. The Astros are listed at -230 in that regard, in comparison to the -350 moneyline odds. Also, the IRTs for both teams are unlike anything you’ll ever see, as the Astros are at 6.7 while the Tigers are at 3.5 – that type of differential is a once-in-a-lifetime sort of thing.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 10 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[8:00 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 (-120) – Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals
TEX: Mike Minor – L (3-3, 2.68 ERA/1.04 WHIP)
KC: Jorge Lopez – R (0-4, 6.07 ERA/1.49 WHIP)

The highest SK Trend Confidence rating of the night in MLB is the under in this game, and that makes plenty of sense with Mike Minor on the mound for the Rangers. The made-over lefty has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts and even held his own against the hottest lineup in baseball during his last start against the Astros.

KC has not fared well against left-handed pitching this season, owning the fourth-worst weighted on-base average (wOBA: .281) in that split. Not to mention, things haven’t gotten any better over the last 14 days.

While Jorge Lopez has given up a decent number of runs, he has gone at least six innings in five of the last seven outings. The Rangers’ offense hasn’t been particularly great against right-handed pitching, with a combined .274 wOBA over the last 14 days.

Minor is clearly the better pitcher here, so I expect him to get the win. Lopez can at least hold his own for a while and not let this thing get out of hand.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 6 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

[8:30 p.m. EST] Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5, -115)

We’ve got some NBA action for the people tonight! The top SK Trend Confidence rating is on the Bucks with the 6.5-point spread, considering they have covered eight of their nine games during the playoffs. I typically don’t bet many NBA games prior to tip-off, opting for the live bets, but tonight is a special occasion.

The Bucks’ roster is miles ahead of the Raptors, who are coming off an emotionally-draining seven-games series against the 76ers. Just as we saw last night in the Trail Blazers-Warriors matchup, Portland wasn’t able to muster enough energy for its new opponent. There’s something to be said about carrying over the same intensity from one series to another – it’s remarkably tough and takes time to make the necessary adjustments.

When looking at Toronto’s roster, there’s not much there. Kawhi Leonard is basically all the Raptors have working for them, and that was evident towards the end of that last series. Sure, Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry are fine players, but it didn’t even look like they wanted to touch the ball down the stretch of Game 7 against Philly.

Look for the Bucks to neutralize Kawhi and make the other role-playing Raptors beat them. Bucks big! #FearTheDear

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks: 102 – Toronto Raptors: 82 *

NBA Betting Value Picks for Sunday, May 12

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[3:30 p.m. EST] Over 213 – Portland Trail Blazers (+5.5, +188 ML) at Denver Nuggets

Five of the six games, including the last five, have gone over the total in this series, so there’s no reason to think today will be any different. Sure, it’s a Game 7 and that means we could see a tightened-up defense, but that’s just not how this matchup has unfolded. The SK Trend Confidence has more faith in the total going over than anything else on the board today!

The Trail Blazers simply have no answer for Nikola Jokic, who has nearly triple-doubled in every game this season. This is, however, why Portland has needed to storm back with so many points in each game. Not to mention, both sides seem to have limitless motors, posting over 100 points total in the second half of each game, and that also speaks to the testament of how close these games have been.

Overall, the SK Trend Confidence likes the Trail Blazers to emerge as the victors in Game 7 over the Nuggets. The trio of Damian Lillard (32), CJ McCollum (30) and Rodney Hood (25) came up big on Thursday night, so look for them to be aggressive once again.

* Final Score Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers: 114 – Denver Nuggets: 112 *

[7:00 p.m. EST] Over 209.5 – Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors (-6, -250 ML)

The grand finale of Game 7s takes place above the border with the Raptors hosting the 76ers. SK’s Trend Confidence loves a Toronto win on the moneyline as the most likely outcome, with the over coming in as the second-best bet.

After the series opened with five straight games going under the total, we’ve now seen two straight overs – both coming in blowouts. It’s also worth noting, as the totals have dropped, the totals have gone over. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing today, as the 209.5 total is the lowest of the series.

As for the Raptors, they have been favored in all but one game of this series. Vegas is telling us they’re the better team, so look for them to capitalize on the home-court advantage and move on to face the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Raptors: 112 – Philadelphia 76ers: 102 *