Tag: Oakland Athletics

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Thursday, September 12

[8:10 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -130)
OAK: Homer Bailey – R (12-8, 4.87 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (18-5, 2.52 ERA/0.77 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the A’s-Astros game. We like Houston to cover the run-line in this one.

This series has been absolutely crazy, as the Astros opened with 15 runs and the A’s answered back the next night with 21. Oakland even took last night’s meeting, giving them a 5-2 record against Houston over the last seven meetings. It’s time for the Astros to take one back – in convincing fashion.

Justin Verlander has faced some weak competition of late, but he didn’t make the schedule. In fact, he’s done his job and then some, allowing four hits or less in five straight starts. Verlander has simply owned Oakland this season, posted a 2-0 record and 1.29 ERA in three starts – a span of 21 innings. Look for him to do the same tonight.

It won’t be easy for the A’s, considering they’ll be facing one of MLB’s best. Even more evident is how much they’ve struggled against him, scoring only three runs in 21 innings.

Homer Bailey has been effective in his last few outings, but his last against the Astros – not so much. In that outing, he allowed nine runs in two innings en route to an 11-1 win for Houston. While Bailey has gotten away with facing lesser teams, the Astros are certainly not one of them.

Right-handed batters are hitting .304 (compared to .220) against Bailey this season, and the Astros have plenty of them. Guys like George Springer, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman can get the party popping in no time. Look for them to hop on Bailey early and often, just as they did last time they faced him.

We’ve got plenty of narratives to foresee the Astros clubbing the A’s tonight. Look for them to get to Bailey early and often, giving Verlander more than enough run support.

* Final Score Prediction * Houston Astros: 10 – Oakland Athletics: 2

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

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SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Tuesday, September 10

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

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[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 10 – Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros
OAK: Tanner Roark – R (9-8, 3.86 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
HOU: Wade Miley – L (13-4, 3.35 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the A’s-Astros game. Houston absolutely clobbered Oakland by the score of 15-0 last night, taking an 11-0 lead after two innings.

Each of the last two Astros’ games has been quite silly, to say the least. The AL West leaders have now scored a total of 36 runs over the last two games, outscoring their opponents 36-1. Yikes!

While the A’s got destroyed last night, they do hit left-handed pitching well and did post a double-digit number of runs in two games late last week.
Tanner Roark has been outstanding since coming to Oakland, but fly-ball pitchers don’t tend to do well with the small dimensions at Minute Maid Park. Just as we saw last night, the Astros jumped all over a very good pitcher in Mike Fiers, and tonight’s matchup against Roark is another one they can certainly take advantage of.

Wade Miley has done a great job against the A’s this season, posting a 1.83 ERA in three meetings. However, Miley didn’t even record an out in his last start against the lowly Mariners, and that has to be a cause for concern heading into a matchup against a desperate team looking to rebound.

You can make the argument that Houston will cover 10 runs all by itself. Taking the Astros has plenty of value here, but it’s tough to fully trust Miley after that last start against the Mariners. We should have more faith in runs being scored, with a few homers being hit in the process.

* Final Score Prediction * Houston Astros: 10 – Oakland Athletics: 5

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Monday, August 26

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 222-167-10 (57.2%) *

SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

Also, we’re happy to announce that we’re reducing prices this week before the start of NFL season. The prices on our packages are now going from:

– Member + AI Boost: $90.00 to $60.00/month
– Member: $30.00 to $20.00/month
– BRAND NEW FREE PACKAGE: (find details on website)

* USE THE PROMO CODE (SK15OFF) TO GET ADDITIONAL 15% OFF YOUR SUBSCRIPTION FOR 6 MONTHS!!! * 

[8:15 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics (ML: -150) at Kansas City Royals
OAK: Homer Bailey – R (11-8, 5.06 ERA/1.39 WHIP)
KC: Brad Keller – R (7-13, 3.95 ERA/1.33 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes us to from the A’s-Royals game. Our system likes the A’s to win this one outright, and right the wrongs of their two-game weekend sweep at the hands of the cross-town rival Giants. There aren’t many games on tonight’s slate, so we don’t mind laying a couple of extra dollars on this bet.

Homer Bailey will be making a return to KC, where he spent the first half of this season before getting traded to Oakland. We certainly don’t have to call this a “revenge game,” considering anyone playing for the Royals over the last couple of years would’ve sold their soul to move to a contender.

Bailey’s recent form, though, is no joking matter. In his last two starts (a span of 12 2/3 innings), Bailey has allowed a 0.79 WHIP and only one run while striking out 15 batters. KC’s offense may have scored nine runs yesterday, but this is not something we should get accustomed to. The Royals have an absolutely dreadful .255 weighted on-base average against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, so Bailey should continue on his dominant ways.

While Bailey has a nice outlook, this A’s offense needs a little kick in the pants. Oakland’s metrics aren’t great against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, but it’s likely this offense gets it going later in the game against KC’s bullpen, which has the fourth-highest ERA in baseball over the last seven days.

All in all, the margin in talent between these two teams is quite significant. Look for the A’s to take their weekend frustration out on a Royals team making their vacation plans already.

* Final Score Prediction * Oakland Athletics: 4 – Kansas City Royals: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Saturday, August 3

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 179-136-7 (56.8%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[9:07 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals at Oakland Athletics (ML: -150)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (10-5, 3.88 ERA/1.54 WHIP)
OAK: Mike Fiers – R (9-3, 3.54 ERA/1.14 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the A’s-Cardinals game going on in Oakland. These two teams played each other back in late June, with the A’s taking both in St. Louis. We like the A’s to do so once again, considering they’ve got one of the highest grades in our system.

If you’re an A’s fan, you have to love the fact that your team has a shot to win whenever Mike Fiers is on the mound. It’s an absolutely fascinating stat, but Fiers has allowed three runs or fewer in all 17 of his starts since April 26 – the A’s are 11-6 in those starts. And it’s not like Fiers is doing this against bottom-of-the-barrel teams – he’s faced the Astros twice, Angels twice, Twins twice, Rays twice and Red Sox once over that span.

Tonight’s matchup against the Cardinals should make it 18 in a row with three runs or fewer allowed, considering they’ve scored two runs or fewer in four of the last five games. The A’s pitching, in general, has been solid over the last six games, holding the opposition to five runs or fewer in all of those.

Dakota Hudson had his worst outing of the month in that last game against the Astros, allowing eight hits (3 HR) and five runs over four innings. While the righty has been a solid ground-ball pitcher for most of the season, that control in the lower part of the strike zone just hasn’t been there lately. Hudson has now allowed 10 homers over his last 35 innings of work, and the A’s certainly have more than enough capable bats to add on to that.

All in all, Oakland has won four of its last five games – all of them coming at home. Look for that home-field advantage to play a part once again, and for Fiers to lead his club to the victory.

* Final Score Prediction * Oakland Athletics: 5 – St. Louis Cardinals: 3

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Tuesday, July 30

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 165-133-7 (55.4%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[10:07 p.m. EST] Milwaukee Brewers at Oakland Athletics (ML: -120)
MIL: Adrian Houser – R (4-4, 4.19 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
OAK: Chris Bassitt – R (7-5, 4.09 ERA/1.20 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Brewers-A’s game, with the home team winning having one of the most likely outcomes in our system. Oakland a solid 41-22 record since May 16 (tied for best in MLB) and a 24-11 record since June 17.

With Milwaukee’s pitching mired in injury shambles, they’ll send Adrian Houser to the mound tonight, and that has been a good thing for opposing offenses. While Houser has done decent work out of the bullpen, his last four starts have not gone well, allowing 25 hits, eight walks and 15 runs over a span of 17 innings in those outings.

Not to mention, right behind Houser, we’re looking at a Brewers bullpen that has the eighth-highest ERA (5.10) in all of MLB since the All-Star break.

Chris Bassitt had a tough time against the Astros last time out, but he’s been slightly better pitching at home this season – 4-3, 3.51 ERA compared to 3-3, 4.53 ERA on the road. No one will ever confuse Bassitt for being one of the best pitchers in baseball, he’s done a fine job of limiting opposing offenses and not letting games get out of hand.

The temperatures are expected to be in the upper-50s for tonight’s game, and that should neutralize a lot of Milwaukee’s power. In fact, some of Bassitt’s best performances this season came when the weather wasn’t brutally hot. Look for him to have a great night, and the A’s offense to add in sparingly throughout the game.

* Final Score Prediction * Oakland Athletics: 6 – Milwaukee Brewers: 3

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, July 22

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 151-122-7 (55.3%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Cleveland Indians (ML: -170) at Toronto Blue Jays
CLE: Mike Clevinger – R (3-2, 3.57 ERA/1.05 WHIP)
TOR: Ryan Borucki – L (season debut)

The SpreadKnowledge system has the Indians moneyline (-170) as the third-most outcome on today’s slate, making them one of three teams to receive an A-grade. Cleveland owns a 28-11 record since June 4, which is best in MLB over that span. Not to mention, the Indians swept a four-game series against the Blue Jays earlier this season.

After a couple of rough outings coming off the injured list, Mike Clevinger has gotten back on track with three starts of allowing one run or fewer. In those outings, he pitched a total of 17 innings and allowed only two runs and a 1.00 WHIP while striking out 27 batters.

The Blue Jays 3.9 implied total is the third-lowest on today’s entire schedule of games. For whatever it’s worth, Clevinger pitched five innings of shutout ball against Toronto back on April 7 and struck out 10 batters in the process.

We don’t have much to go on for Ryan Borucki, who has been limited to four minor league rehab outings this season. He will, however, run into a Cleveland offense that has a .366 weighted on-base average and .225 ISO (power metric) against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.
Look for the Indians to keep rolling over a Blue Jays that finally gets to come back home after a tough 10-game road trip to open the second half of the season.

* Final Score Prediction * Cleveland Indians: 6 – Toronto Blue Jays: 2

[8:10 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics (ML: +217) at Houston Astros
OAK: Homer Bailey – R (8-6, 4.69 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
HOU: Gerrit Cole – R (10-5, 3.12 ERA/1.03 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system is ranking the A’s as one of the most valuable plays on the board tonight at +217 on the moneyline. It won’t be easy, as the Astros send Gerrit Cole to the mound, but there are a few reasons to think Oakland can pull off the upset on Monday.

Homer Bailey had a solid outing in his first start with the A’s, and he’s certainly capable of a repeat performance in this matchup, albeit against an Astros team that is as good as any in MLB. It is worth noting, though, that Bailey is 4-0 with a 1.46 ERA/0.92 WHIP in eight career starts against the Astros.

The A’s will need to be on top of their game if they plan of making up any ground in the AL West race, sitting 6.5 games behind the Astros. They’ll have to go through Cole, who has been on top of his game recently. But there is reason to think we could see him falter a little bit against a talented A’s lineup.

Oakland has zaftig .393 weighted on-base average and .282 ISO numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Not to mention, the A’s have a 21-7 record since June 17, so we’re getting tons of value on a quality team here tonight.

* Final Score Prediction * Oakland A’s: 4 – Houston Astros: 3

[9:45 p.m. EST] Chicago Cubs (ML: -112) at San Francisco Giants
CHC: Alec Mills – R (0-0, 4.50 ERA/1.00 WHIP)
SF: Shaun Anderson – R (3-2, 4.87 ERA/1.50 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system has the Cubs moneyline (-112) as the second-most likely outcome on tonight’s slate. After all, Chicago is 9-3 over the last 12 games and we’re getting an extremely good price on them in a matchup they should excel in.

Shaun Anderson takes the mound for the Giants, and he’s been getting hit around with great regularity. Over his last 13 1/3 innings, Anderson has allowed a total of 22 hits and 13 runs. The Cubs have been finding most of their success lately from the pitching, but this is a great spot for the offense to have a big night at Oracle Park. It’s really been the key players (Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez) in the zone for this team lately, and a couple of good performances from these guys should have them comfortably in the lead for most of the night.

Alec Mills made his season debut on Tuesday, going six innings and allowing three runs. It wasn’t a performance worthy of hanging on our hat on tonight but looking at Mills career numbers, the 1.17 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in 27 1/3 innings show that he’s off to a good start.

The Giants had a string of games where they were pounding the baseball, but their advanced
metrics against right-handed pitching took a big dip upon returning back to their home ballpark. Look for Mills to keep the San Francisco offense at bay for most of the night, and ultimately get the win.

* Final Score Prediction * Chicago Cubs: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 3

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, July 14

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 137-110-6 (55.5%) *

[2:20 p.m. EST] Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs (ML: -170)
PIT: Trevor Williams – R (3-2, 4.54 ERA/1.26 WHIP)
CHC: Jose Quintana – L (6-7, 4.19 ERA/1.35 WHIP)

The Cubs will look to complete the sweep over the Pirates today, and if history is any indication, they should be able to do just that.

We’ve talked about BvP (batter vs. pitcher) a couple of times in this space, and everyone has their own opinion on it. I believe in it, and it should help the Cubbies in today’s game.

Trevor Williams got off to an amazing start this season, but it’s been anything but pretty of late. Since returning from the IL, the righty has allowed a total of 26 hits, 18 runs and five homers over 17 1/3 innings in three starts.

Williams’ last start was against this same Cubs team, as he allowed nine hits, three walks and five runs over 5 2/3 innings. In fact, Chicago has done quite well against him in recent history – especially the combo of Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber. Look for these guys to be the catalyst in the Cubbies flying the W flag later today.

Jose Quintana has been simply magnificent against the Pirates this season, allowing only 10 hits, two walks and three runs over 14 innings while striking out 17 batters. The current Pittsburgh roster hasn’t given JQ much trouble over his career, as they own a collective .260 on-base percentage against him in 128 career plate appearances.

All in all, we’ve got two teams heading in opposite directions out of the All-Star break. And it’s nice to have history on our side here as well.

* Final Score Prediction * Chicago Cubs: 8 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 3

[4:07 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 – Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
SEA: Yusei Kikuchi – L (4-6, 4.94 ERA/1.45 WHIP)
LAA: Jose Suarez – L (2-1, 5.40 ERA/1.52 WHIP)

Nine of the last 13 games between the teams have gone over the total, including each of the first two in this series. Look for more of the same, as the SK system has an A-grade on the over for today’s matchup, the highest of any on the entire schedule. The SK system also loves the Angels on the moneyline and/or the 1.5-run line, but our priority is on the over today.

Yusei Kikuchi has been getting beat up with great regularity, especially against the Angels. In fact, the Los Angeles offense has registered 29 hits (.475 batting average), seven walks, 17 runs (16 earned) and five homers against him in a total of 11 2/3 innings this season.

The Angels’ offense is absolutely clicking on all cylinders, with a total of 32 runs over their last three games. While the bats are rolling, it’s a nice combination to be facing a Mariners’ bullpen, which owns the fourth-worst ERA in baseball – and it’s gotten even worse since arriving in Anaheim.

Jose Suarez takes the ball for the Angels and he’s been allowing tons of baserunners. Suarez faced the Mariners in his MLB debut back on June 9, allowing four hits, two walks and two runs over 4 2/3 innings. We can probably expect more of the same from him today, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing for the over. Suarez has only maxed out 5 2/3 innings, and the Angels’ bullpen has fallen off dramatically after such a great start.

The Mariners’ defense always comes into play when betting the over in their games. Seattle has committed 95 errors, which is 25 more than any other team in MLB. These errors give opposing offenses more opportunities to put runs on the board, and they have certainly taken advantage of that.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Angels: 7 – Seattle Mariners: 4

[4:07 p.m. EST] Under 10 – Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics
CHW: Reynaldo Lopez – R (4-8, 6.34 ERA/1.58 WHIP)
OAK: Brett Anderson – L (9-5, 3.86 ERA/1.30 WHIP)

Reynaldo Lopez isn’t usually a guy we go to when trying to get the total to go under, but today is a new day, my friends. In fact, Lopez has actually done quite well away from Guaranteed Rate Field in each of his last three road starts, the last two coming against quality opponents – Red Sox and Rangers. The righty three runs or fewer in each of those last three road starts.

Vegas has something up its sleeve for this game, giving the A’s IRT (implied run total) a noticeable -0.4 downshift from their initial 6.0 number. Part of the reason could be the weather, which isn’t very typical for July baseball. Temperatures should be in the upper-60s/low-70s, and that’s not good for ball flight. Some of those fly balls that Lopez gives up will likely fall just shy of the wall.

On the other side, Brett Anderson will be going for the A’s. He’s never been a flashy strikeout-pitcher, rather getting it done by spotting the baseball and inducing opposing offenses into ground-ball outs. In fact, Anderson has gotten at least eight ground-ball outs in each of his last nine starts, and a double-digit total in six of them.

Over the last 14 days, both teams’ bullpens have been quite effective. Especially the A’s, whose pen owns a 2.30 ERA over that span – fourth-best in baseball.

All in all, we’re probably looking at a very boring game today and that’s exactly what we want for this bet. The SK system has a B+ grade on this game, ranking just behind the level of confidence we have in the over on the Angels-Mariners game.

* Final Score Prediction * Oakland Athletics: 4 – Chicago White Sox: 2

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, July 12

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 133-110-5 (54.7%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] New York Mets at Miami Marlins (ML: -110)
NYM: Jason Vargas – L (3-4, 3.77 ERA/1.31 WHIP)
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (4-4, 3.50 ERA/1.01 WHIP)

Caleb Smith hasn’t been at his best over the last few starts, but there are a couple of things attributing to that. For starters, he did land on the DL for a month with inflammation in his left hip – that would explain Smith going from utterly dominant to so-so mediocre. The other, is that he faced stiff competition – Braves, Brewers, Nationals and Padres – in each of his last four starts, all on the road… and all solid against left-handed pitching.

In fact, Smith hasn’t pitched a home game since May 15, and he’s been much better at Marlins Park with a 3-1 record and 1.84 ERA/0.89 WHIP. The young lefty has done quite well against the Mets over the course of his brief career, going 1-0 with a 3.24 ERA in three starts, including 23 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings.

On the other side, it’s the Mets. Oh, dear…

Jason Vargas has surprisingly been one of the team’s best pitchers, but the Vegas odds have already spoken. Until tonight, the Marlins have never been favored been against the Mets in 2019. Oddly enough, this is only the fifth time all season that the Marlins have been favored in a game.

Vargas allowed a season-high eight hits against Miami back on April 2 – his first start of the 2019 campaign. We’re not going to push all of our chips in the middle of the table based on that performance alone, but the Marlins have been a pesky bunch since the start of June. It’s a very underrated factor, but Miami has two veteran hitters in Starlin Castro and Curtis Granderson that have done very well against Vargas (combined 13-for-30, 6 2B, 1 HR), and those guys can certainly relay their intel to the rest of the club.

Unfortunately, the Marlins’ record and stats look feeble over that span because they’ve done nothing but face the class of the NL East (Braves, Nationals and Phillies) and most of the aces from those teams. Miami has held its own, though, and there’s certainly some motivation to try and get some wins against New York, who is the only team that is worse than them in the NL.

Last, but certainly not least, the Mets’ bullpen is notoriously known for being putrid. Cover your ears, Mets’ fans: the bullpen has the same number of blown saves this season that they do ACTUAL SAVES! Surprisingly, the only other team that can say that is the defending champion Red Sox.

Let’s take The Fish with favorable odds, an underrated starting pitching mismatch, and yeah… the Mets’ bullpen is always fun to pick on.

* Final Score Prediction * Miami Marlins: 4 – New York Mets: 2

[10:07 p.m. EST] Over 10 – Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels (ML: -154)
SEA: Mike Leake – R (7-7, 4.32 ERA/1.24 WHIP)
LAA: Taylor Cole – R (0-1, 4.32/1.58 WHIP)

Some people look at BvP (batter vs. pitcher) and think it’s a total sham – you could make the argument in a small sample size. However, when looking at a range of 281 plate appearances, there really shouldn’t be any confusion at all.

The current Angels’ roster is absolutely smacking Mike Leake around the ballpark for a combined .341 batting average, .389 on-base percentage and .948 OPS. Granted, Jonathan Lucroy and his .396 batting average will be out of the lineup for tonight (and the near future), but guys like Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton and Andrelton Simmons should do just fine without him. Leake won’t have to face Lucroy, but the aging righty still has to deal with the fact that he’s 2-5 with a 5.08 ERA on the road in 2019.

In 13 innings against the Angels this season, Leake has also allowed five homers. I think it’s safe to say someone has somebody’s number.

Not to get all philosophical, but this will be the first time the Angels play at home since the death of their fallen teammate, Tyler Skaggs. I really do think the Angels are going to make a nice run in his honor, and if that holds true, tonight is where it all begins.

Mariners’ pitching has been downright awful in 2019, whether it’s the starters, or their bullpen, which has allowed the fourth-worst ERA (5.03) and fourth-most homers (64) in all of MLB this season.

Taylor Cole will be the “opener” for Los Angeles tonight, and he should do just fine in limited work. He will, however, give way to the Angels’ bullpen which has allowed the most homers (25) in MLB over the last 30 days.

The Mariners’ roster has been depleted and will probably continue to have that same fate until the end of July, but these guys are a scrappy bunch that’ll put runs on the board no matter what. Of course, they have to, with the way the pitching has been this season.

Not to mention, no other defense in MLB has committed more errors (92) than the Mariners, and that gives the opposing offense more than enough chances to capitalize on scoring more run. To put that into perspective, the Orioles have the second-most errors in the league… with 68. Yikes!

All in all, the SK system likes the Angels to win this game, but the total going over 10 runs is our best bet of the night.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Angels: 9 – Seattle Mariners: 5

[10:07 p.m. EST] Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics (ML: -179)
CHW: Ivan Nova – R (4-7, 5.58 ERA/1.53 WHIP)
OAK: Mike Fiers – R (8-3, 3.87 ERA/1.10 WHIP)

Ivan Nova might’ve had a solid outing heading into the All-Star break, but let’s not act like all of his wounds have been healed. In fact, his two best outings since June 1 have been against the same Cubs team, while the Twins, Rangers, Yankees and Royals all roughed him up. The veteran righty is allowing a massive 5.58 ERA/1.53 WHIP and an opposing batting average of .318 this season, in addition to 19 homers over the last 78 1/3 innings of work.

Prior to the All-Star break, the A’s owned the ninth-best ISO rating (.187) in MLB against right-handed pitching. Now that guys like Khris Davis and Matt Olson are fully healthy, this is a deadly lineup with its chest puffed out. The 9-3 record that Oakland carried into the second half of the season should be a solid boost of momentum going forward.

The A’s opening IRT (implied run total) of 5.5 is one of the highest on tonight’s slate, and that says a lot about Nova’s impending meltdown, considering this is one of the worst hitting parks in MLB.

Perhaps the best part of betting the A’s tonight is their stud on the mound, Mike Fiers. In each of his last nine outings, the crafty right-hander has notched a quality start — over his last four outings, he’s allowed exactly one earned run each time out. Oakland has won seven of those nine contests, with the two losses (both by one run) coming against powerhouses Houston and Minnesota.

Fiers won’t be getting it done via the strikeout, but it’s important to note that his Statcast data is a better place than it’s ever been over his career.

When looking at the two bullpens in this game, the A’s clearly have the advantage here. Oakland’s pen is the only team in MLB allowing a HR/9 under 1.00 this season and its 3.91 ERA ranks seventh-best.

* Final Score Prediction * Oakland Athletics: 7 – Chicago White Sox: 2

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, June 17

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 110-91-4 (54.7%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10 (-108) – Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (6-5, 4.31 ERA/1.45 WHIP)
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (5-5, 4.11 ERA/1.22 WHIP)

Vegas is loving some runs in this game, elevating the IRTs (implied run totals) for each team – Nationals: +0.7, Phillies: +0.3.

Jake Arrieta has not been at his best of late and the control has been a big reason why. The veteran righty has issued nine walks over his last two outings (10 2/3 innings), despite the Phillies getting the win in each of them. The road has not been kind to Arrieta either, as he’s allowed five runs in each of his last two starts away from Citizens Bank Park.

The Phils’ bullpen has been downright awful of late. After coughing up Friday’s game in Atlanta, three of their pitchers combined to give up 15 runs in Sunday’s loss to the Braves. Stretching it out a bit longer, the Phils’ bullpen has the second-worst ERA (9.27) in MLB over the last seven days.

Arrieta could very well find himself in a spot where he’s forced to pitch more innings, even if things aren’t going well.

Aside from a complete-game shutout against the lousy Marlins, Patrick Corbin has been brutal. Over his last three starts (12 2/3 innings), the lefty has allowed 22 hits and 20 runs (16 earned) – yikes!

According to the advanced metric xwOBA, the top six hitters in each team’s lineup have been making solid contact over the last 21 days against the handedness of starting pitcher on the mound tonight. Not to mention, five of the last six games for both teams have gone over the total.

FYI: This game might get off to a late start with a 50% chance of rain in the forecast from 7-9 p.m. I don’t see that causing any issues for either offense.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 8 – Philadelphia Phillies: 7 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 (+100) – Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
TB: Yonny Chirinos – R (7-2, 2.88 ERA/0.93 WHIP)
NYY: Masahiro Tanaka – R (4-5, 3.58 ERA/1.18 WHIP)

While Yankee Stadium isn’t exactly the place we usually look for the total going under, there is a nice matchup of dueling righties on the mound tonight.

The Spread Knowledge Trend Confidence rating has the under on this game as the highest grade of the evening. A big reason is that nine of the last 13 Rays’ games have gone under the total. Also, the total has dropped slightly from 9.5 to 9.0, and the Yankees’ IRT dropped from 5.2 to 4.8 – usually a good sign for the under.

Masahiro Tanaka hasn’t been at his best lately, but he does have fantastic lifetime numbers (0.96 career WHIP) against the Rays. That includes 13 innings of work against them this season, allowing only eight hits and one run while striking out 13 batters. In his last six starts against the Rays, Tanaka has allowed two runs or fewer in five of those – one run or fewer in four of them.

Yonny Chirinos has made a smooth transition to becoming a legit starter, and he’s allowed two runs or fewer in six of the last seven outings – one run or fewer in four of the last six. The electric righty has done a fine job of limiting runs against the Yankees, allowing no runs in two of his four career meetings – the latest coming at Yankee Stadium.

Both of these teams have incredibly-talented bullpens, so I certainly won’t bet against them. Look for this to be a low-scoring game that comes down to the very end.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 4 – New York Yankees: 3 –*

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-112) Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds
HOU: Wade Miley – L (6-3, 3.14 ERA/1.16 WHIP)
CIN: Luis Castillo – R (6-1, 2.20 ERA/1.09 WHIP)

It’s a fantastic matchup of arms, as Wade Miley and Luis Castillo go up against one another, in a ballpark that usually makes pitchers weep. The total going under in this game is also one of the highest grades on the SK Trend Confidence rating.

Let’s start with Castillo, who has allowed one earned run in each of his last three starts. It’s quite telling that the Astros are underdogs, given that they’re 1-4 when having that label this season. Obviously, Castillo and his dominance play a big part in tonight’s line, but Houston is also coming off a 12-0 shellacking at the hands of Toronto yesterday. Sure, the Astros’ lineup is missing some key pieces, but you can’t be getting beat by the Blue Jays like that.

If, for some reason, Castillo doesn’t make it too deep into this start, no worries. The Cincy bullpen is leading a number of categories in advanced metrics over the last seven days.

Miley has been a pleasant surprise for the Astros this season, especially of late, allowing two runs or fewer in seven of the last nine starts. I don’t see him being as dominant as Castillo tonight, but certainly enough to not let this run total get out of hand. I’d be willing to bet that someone like Eugenio Suarez or Yasiel Puig tag him for a long ball, and that’ll ultimately be the difference.

I’m giving the Reds the win in this one, on the strength of a dominant performance from Castillo. It’s also a good sign for him that Houston loses its DH playing in the National League park.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 4 – Houston Astros: 1 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics (1.5-run line: -114)
BAL: Andrew Cashner – R (6-2, 4.63 ERA/1.38 WHIP)
OAK: Mike Fiers – R (6-3, 4.63 ERA/1.14 WHIP)

We’ve got trends galore in our favor for the A’s over the Orioles tonight – listen up!

Oakland is favored by its highest moneyline of the season tonight at -230. The A’s have been favored by -200 or more only twice this season, winning both games and scoring a total of 20 runs. Vegas knows what they’re doing.

The A’s will face Andrew Cashner, who they’ve beat up on a consistent basis. The veteran righty has a 6.83 ERA/1.69 WHIP against Oakland lifetime, and a lot of the hitters on the current roster have fantastic BvP numbers against him.

Mike Fiers has been fantastic over his last nine starts, allowing three runs or fewer each time out. He’s been even better against the Orioles, with a 3-1 record and 2.08 ERA/0.88 WHIP lifetime. Fiers also has great numbers at home this season, going 4-2 with a 0.95 WHIP. Over the last two seasons, Fiers’ team is 19-5 when he pitches at home and 16-7 when he pitches against teams with a losing record.

Oakland has been relaxing here on the West coast, while Baltimore had to travel across the country yesterday for tonight’s game. Look for them to experience plenty of jet-lag and the A’s to get a comfortable victory.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics: 7 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, June 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 106-89-4 (54.4%) *

 

[4:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (1.5-run line: -200) at Baltimore Orioles
BOS: Chris Sale – L (2-7, 3.52 ERA/0.96 WHIP)
BAL: Dylan Bundy – R (3-7, 4.50 ERA/1.23 WHIP)

The Orioles are a putrid 3-26 as a home underdog of +175 or more over the last two season. Yikes! That mark in the loss column is about to get bigger as Chris Sale takes the mound for the Red Sox. The lanky lefty is 7-2 with a 2.37 ERA/0.99 WHIP over his career when starting against the Orioles. There has been more success recently, as Sale has allowed one run or fewer in five of the last six starts against them.

Sale has been on top of his game recently, with at least 10 strikeouts in seven of his last nine starts. Just over a month ago, he dominated this same Bird Gang bunch, allowing one run over eight innings while striking out 14. Since this is a mid-day game the hitters might have to deal with some shadows, and that’ll make it nearly impossible to hit a pitcher like Sale. You should certainly give some thought to laying money on his 8.5 K-prop at -144 today.

Baltimore just struggled mightily last night against fellow lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, and now own less-than-stellar .309 xwOBA/.166 ISO numbers versus left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

Dylan Bundy takes the mound for the Orioles and he does not have a great history against the opposition, going 3-7 with a 5.25 ERA/1.50 WHIP lifetime. The splits aren’t in his favor either, as Bundy is 1-4 with a 4.54 ERA at home and 0-5 with a 5.70 ERA in day-time starts.

Hopefully, Boston can rip Bundy early and get to the Baltimore bullpen. Their 9.13 ERA (highest in MLB) over the last seven days was inflated quite a bit after last night’s whooping.

The Red Sox look to have finally gotten back on the good foot offensively, scoring a total of 29 runs over the last four games. Mookie Betts should be back in the lineup after getting the night off – he has four career homers against Bundy.

It’s a ton of money to be laying on the 1.5-run line, but Boston loves it here in Baltimore, winning 16 of the last 18 meetings at Camden Yards.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: -124)
KC: Glenn Sparkman – R (1-2, 3.58 ERA/1.30 WHIP)
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (9-2, 1.92 ERA/0.97 WHIP)

The Twins did it against last night, beating the weak and improving their mark to 28-10 this season against teams with a losing record. That number should go up some more as they put Jake Odorizzi on the mound. Minnesota has won the last 10 games that Odorizzi started, with eight of them coming by two runs or more.

It’s ridiculous to fathom the amount of success Odorizzi has produced this season. The veteran righty has started 13 games in 2019 – he’s allowed three runs or fewer in 12 of them, two runs or fewer in 11 of them, one run or fewer in eight of them, and no runs in six of them. Whoa!

KC’s offense has been sputtering quite a bit over the last 21 days against right-handed pitching, with an anemic .281 wOBA, .133 ISO and 24.7% K-rate. They’ve also scored three runs or fewer in five of the last six games, and two runs or fewer in four of the last six.

Glenn Sparkman starts for the Royals and his lack of ability to get strikeouts could very well get him in trouble against a potent Twins lineup. Minnesota has some of the best advanced-metrics in MLB this season, so I expect them to give Odorizzi more than enough run support in this game.

I mentioned this number last night, but it still resonates for this matchup – the Twins are 37-16 in games against right-handed starters while the Royals are 16-34. KC also owns the worst road record in baseball at 8-24.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 7 – Kansas City Royals: 1 *

[9:07 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics (1.5-run line: -110)
SEA: Wade LeBlanc – L (3-2, 5.31 ERA/1.37 WHIP)
OAK: Frankie Montas – R (8-2, 2.84 ERA/1.18 WHIP)

For the grand finale of the evening, we’re taking it out West. The A’s are massive -230 favorites on the moneyline, which is actually their highest of the season. Rather than lay all of that money, we’ve got some nice trends in our favor to cut that in half by going with the 1.5-run line.

Frankie Montas is probably the best pitcher in baseball that no one knows about. He tied his season high of 10 strikeouts in his last outing and has notched at least nine of them in three of the last five starts. Not to mention, Montas has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 10 of his 13 starts this season.

Wade LeBlanc goes for the Mariners, and he’ll be facing an A’s team that has a .405 wOBA and .229 ISO against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Particularly, it’s been the bottom of Oakland’s lineup doing most of the damage over that span, and it’s not like the top four hitters in its lineup (Semien, Chapman, Piscotty, Davis) are a bunch of slouches either. LeBlanc got hit around pretty well by them in his last meeting and I expect plenty of the same in this one.

If the A’s do get to LeBlanc early, their offense will have the benefit of facing a Mariners bullpen that has allowed the most runs (26) and the second-highest ERA (8.56) over the last seven days.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics: 7 – Seattle Mariners: 3 *

 

<> Key terms used in today’s writing:

– ISO = Isolated Power (A sabermetric computation used to measure a player’s raw power. This distinguishes a batter with a .300 batting average and many singles, as opposed to a batter with a .300 average and more extra-base hits… typically, .200 is where you want to be in ISO.)

– wOBA = Weighted On-Base Average (A version of on-base percentage that accounts for how a player reached base. The value for each event is determined by how much it is worth in relation to a run created – Ex: a double is worth more than a single, a triple is worth more than a double, a home run is worth more than a triple, etc… about .320 is league average)

– xwOBA = Expected Weighted On-Base Average (The same thing as wOBA, just removing defense from the equation. An easy way of looking at xwOBA, would be to just imagine there are no fielders on the playing surface.)

– wRC+ = Weighted Runs Created Plus (Runs created + adjusting the number to account for important external factors – like ballpark or ERA… 100 is league average)