Tag: San Antonio Spurs

NBA Playoffs Value Bets for Thursday, April 18

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

NBA Playoffs

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 228 – Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets

If you haven’t been near a TV set this past week, let me fill you in – these two teams don’t like each other. Not only that, but the Brooklyn crowd will be going absolutely bonkers for its first home playoff game since 2015, which actually seems a lot longer than that. Add in the mix of Philly fans that are likely to make the trip down I-95 to Barclays Center, and we’re looking at one of the more electric atmospheres for any first-round matchup.

So, what does it all mean? Excitement, and plenty of it. In fact, four of the six meetings (regular season and playoffs) between these two teams have resulted in the total going over. Looking deeper into it, both teams scored at least 110 points in those four games and at least 123 in three of the six.

The Nets know the only way they’re beating the 76ers is by outscoring them… duh. But most of Brooklyn’s best defensive efforts held Philly to a high total throughout the year. The only time one of these teams didn’t reach 100 was back in the first meeting on Nov. 4 when the 76ers lost 122-97.

All in all, these teams are going to score, and you don’t want to be the stick in the mud that takes the under in this one.

[9:10 p.m. EST] Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs (-4, -174 ML)

This series has been sort awkward, in that Games 1 and 2 weren’t really close until the fourth quarter. The Spurs lost their way late in that last game but completed the mission by taking back homecourt advantage in the best-of-seven battle. If it weren’t for a magical second-half performance from Jamal Murray in Game 2, San Antonio would be looking to put Denver in a deep 0-3 hole.

The Spurs have shown they are more than capable of handling their counterparts in this series. With the scene shifting back to AT&T Center, look for San Antonio to capitalize on the strides they’ve made so far. After all, the Spurs went 32-9 at AT&T Center this season and the Nuggets haven’t won there since March 2012.

If bettors needed a reminder, the Spurs had the second-best odds (OKC was first) of any underdog to win a first-round series, and that has now changed after the Thunder fell in an 0-2 hole. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, San Antonio now has the best odds (+122) of all underdogs to win a first-round series. I’m no mathematician, but that’s a pretty good indication of an upset going down.

The second-highest SK Trend Confidence of tonight’s NBA slate is the Spurs on the moneyline. However, the four-point spread shouldn’t be that tough to hit either, but you’ll be laying more money out to do so.

[10:40 p.m. EST] Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers (+8.5/+300 ML)

The almighty Warriors couldn’t possibly lose two straight first-round games to the Clippers, could they? Well, according to our Value Picks section, the Clippers on the moneyline has the highest SK Trend Confidence of the NBA slate. Reason being, you only have to lay $100 in order to bring back $300 in return.

It’s not totally out of the question either, consider Los Angeles did pull the major upset in Game 2 after being down 31 points, and now have the momentum coming into Game 3. Fans around the globe will certainly tune in to see how Golden State comes out in this game, and there could be some bumps in the road as they learn to cope without DeMarcus Cousins. Granted, the Warriors have had plenty of success without him before, but this is a scrappy and well-coached Clippers team that has a ton of pesky competitors on their side.

Golden State seems to have no answer in this series for Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrel, who have been excellent as always off the bench. And, of course, we can’t forget the impact Patrick Beverley has had in pestering Kevin Durant whenever possible.

The Warriors might eventually win this series, but the SK system sees a few trends that’ll ultimately make that goal a little tougher to reach — starting tonight. If the moneyline seems too risky, going with the Clippers +8.5 could end up being more ideal for bettors. After all, 95% of the public’s money is on the Warriors, and most know that running the opposite way of the public has worked plenty of times before.

NBA Playoffs & MLB Value Bets for Tuesday, April 16

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* NBA PLAYOFFS *

[9:00 p.m. EST] Under 210 – San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets

The Spurs did their job and got the road win in Game 1, so they can basically take the night off for the sake of us bettors. After all, this is pretty much how a series goes if the underdog wins the opener on the road – The underdog usually gets rolled in Game 2 – See: Brooklyn Nets last night. And don’t let the score in that 76ers/Nets game fool you, because the Nuggets and Spurs simply don’t have that type of offensive firepower.

The best value play in this game is taking the under. Dating back to the regular season, 17 of San Antonio’s last 22 games have gone under the total, while Denver’s games also have a track record of not going over the total, suffering that fate in 22 of its last 32.

While it looks like the Spurs could very well get their doors blown off, SK has more confidence in this one going under the total. If you’re a fan of prop bets, taking the under of 101.5 points for the Spurs’ team total would also be a wise move.

[10:30 p.m. EST] Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers (-114 ML)

The highest SK Trend Confidence (32%) on tonight’s NBA slate is Portland to win outright once again over OKC. Everyone figured the Thunder would easily win Game 1, considering they went 4-0 against the Trail Blazers during the regular season. Not to mention, Russell Westbrook has outplayed Damian Lillard in the head-to-head sense over the course of their careers.

However, the tide turned in the series opener, and that was with Portland not necessarily playing its best brand of basketball. Thankfully, the Trail Blazers had a 14-point lead at the end of the first quarter, and that allowed them to hold on for the five-point victory at the end.

OKC’s Westbrook (ankle) and Paul George (shoulder) are both a little banged up, and neither of them has completely dismissed the fact that these injuries will be an issue. If that truly is the case, the Thunder could be looking at an 0-2 hole heading back to OKC – and the SK Trend Confidence believes that will be the case.

* MLB REGULAR SEASON GAMES *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-250 ML/-1.5)
BAL: Dylan Bundy – R (0-1, 8.76 ERA)
TB: Tyler Glasnow – R (3-0, 0.53)

Betting MLB games like this one is usually what we look for – pitchers trending in opposite directions. Tyler Glasnow of the Rays is off to an amazing start, allowing only one run in 17 innings, while striking out 21 batters and walking three. On the other side, Dylan Bundy goes for the Orioles, and he has been absolutely horrendous, allowing 12 runs in 12.1 innings. Bundy has racked up 17 strikeouts so far but that has been nullified by a massive 1.78 WHIP.

The Rays currently have the best winning percentage in all of MLB and are showing no signs of slowing down. Especially with a fantastic matchup against Bundy on the horizon.

Tampa Bay on the moneyline has a nice SK Trend Confidence rating of 30%. But it might make more sense to bet the Rays on the 1.5-run line (SK Trend Confidence rating of 26%) so you don’t have to risk as much money.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 8 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-160 ML) at Oakland Athletics
HOU: Collin McHugh – R (2-1, 2.65 ERA)
OAK: Marco Estrada – R (0-1, 4.87 ERA)

The Astros will be looking to win their 10th consecutive game when they meet the A’s and if history is any indication, that shouldn’t be a problem. Collin McHugh has gone 9-1 with a 2.73 ERA in 18 appearances (12 starts) against Oakland over the course of his career. Not only that, but Houston’s bullpen has been outstanding at the onset, ranking third in all of MLB with a 2.70 ERA. The A’s bullpen has been responsible for five of the team’s losses, including four blown saves.

Houston’s offense is usually deadly, and this year is no different as it leads MLB with a collective .280 batting average. The Astros’ 32% SK Trend Confidence rating is the highest of any team on the moneyline tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 6 – Oakland Athletics: 4 *