Tag: St. Louis Cardinals

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Wednesday, August 14

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 207-145-9 (59%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since July 28, we have a 43-13-3 record over the last 59 premium picks — these do not include free picks. We had two losses this afternoon, missing on a total and the Yankees didn’t cover the 1.5-run line in a 6-5 win.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[8:15 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 – St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (10-6, 4.01 ERA/1.57 WHIP)
KC: Brad Keller – R (7-12, 4.09 ERA/1.36 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Cardinals-Royals game, where we like the total to go under in this one. After all, 11 of the last 13 Cardinals’ games have done just that – three of the Royals’ last four have as well.

Vegas already left its mark on this game, decreasing the game total from 10.0 to 9.5 and IRTs (implied run totals) for each team – Cardinals: -0.3, Royals: -0.2. We’ve also got 8 mph winds blowing in from left-center field, which won’t help the ball carry at all.

Dakota Hudson hasn’t been at his best of late, but tonight’s opponent will give him the chance to get back on the good foot. The Royals have anemic .260 weighted on-base average and .127 ISO (power metric) numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

While Hudson’s numbers could be better, he’s allowed three runs or fewer in 19 of his last 20 starts. It’s going deep into games which have plagued him in these last three starts. Even if Hudson can’t make past the fifth inning once again, he’ll hand it off to a Cardinals’ bullpen that owns the fifth-best ERA (3.80) in baseball this season.

Brad Keller has much better numbers at Kaufmann Stadium this season, and he’ll certainly need that trend to continue if KC will have a shot tonight.

I’m not sure if the KC offense hates Keller, but they have only given him seven runs of support over his last four starts. Whether that’s true or just dumb coincidence (it’s probably this), it still bodes well for our chances of the total going under with this trend.

All in all, we’ve got two teams that aren’t lighting up too many scoreboards. The pitchers have some decent qualities that’ll keep the score low enough until the Cardinals’ bullpen shuts this thing down once and for all.

* Final Score Prediction * St. Louis Cardinals: 4 – Kansas City Royals: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Saturday, August 3

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 179-136-7 (56.8%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[9:07 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals at Oakland Athletics (ML: -150)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (10-5, 3.88 ERA/1.54 WHIP)
OAK: Mike Fiers – R (9-3, 3.54 ERA/1.14 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the A’s-Cardinals game going on in Oakland. These two teams played each other back in late June, with the A’s taking both in St. Louis. We like the A’s to do so once again, considering they’ve got one of the highest grades in our system.

If you’re an A’s fan, you have to love the fact that your team has a shot to win whenever Mike Fiers is on the mound. It’s an absolutely fascinating stat, but Fiers has allowed three runs or fewer in all 17 of his starts since April 26 – the A’s are 11-6 in those starts. And it’s not like Fiers is doing this against bottom-of-the-barrel teams – he’s faced the Astros twice, Angels twice, Twins twice, Rays twice and Red Sox once over that span.

Tonight’s matchup against the Cardinals should make it 18 in a row with three runs or fewer allowed, considering they’ve scored two runs or fewer in four of the last five games. The A’s pitching, in general, has been solid over the last six games, holding the opposition to five runs or fewer in all of those.

Dakota Hudson had his worst outing of the month in that last game against the Astros, allowing eight hits (3 HR) and five runs over four innings. While the righty has been a solid ground-ball pitcher for most of the season, that control in the lower part of the strike zone just hasn’t been there lately. Hudson has now allowed 10 homers over his last 35 innings of work, and the A’s certainly have more than enough capable bats to add on to that.

All in all, Oakland has won four of its last five games – all of them coming at home. Look for that home-field advantage to play a part once again, and for Fiers to lead his club to the victory.

* Final Score Prediction * Oakland Athletics: 5 – St. Louis Cardinals: 3

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, July 16

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 140-113-6 (55.3%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (1.5-run line: -134)
DET: Ryan Carpenter – L (1-5, 8.36 ERA/1.75 WHIP)
CLE: Zach Plesac – R (3-3, 4.00 ERA/1.18 WHIP)

It has been a rough go of things for the Tigers against the Indians, losing nine of the 10 meetings this season, including each of the last eight. In fact, Cleveland has outscored Detroit by a total of 63-27 in those contests. Tonight’s -260 moneyline number for the Indians matches their highest of the season, so I feel comfortable taking the 1.5-run line here and saving some money to lay.

Things won’t get any better for the Tigers tonight as they send Ryan Carpenter out to the hill. The lefty has a 7.95 ERA/1.73 WHIP in 14 career MLB appearances, including a 12.38 ERA/2.50 WHIP in two starts against the Indians. Carpenter has allowed at least seven hits in six of his eight starts, and that’ll be a dangerous proposition to do such a thing against such a talented lineup.

Since the beginning of July, Cleveland has posted seven runs or more five times, with all of those big totals coming against lesser-talented teams – just like the one it’ll see tonight. Detroit’s bullpen owns the fifth-worst ERA (5.01) in baseball and the team, as a whole, has allowed exactly eight runs in three of its four games since the All-Star break.

On the other side, Zach Plesac has been excellent to start his MLB career, allowing two runs or fewer in five of his first eight starts. The rookie right-hander had a great outing against the Tigers back on June 23, allowing five hits, one walk and one run, while inducing a season-high 10 ground-ball outs over seven innings en route to an 8-3 Indians’ victory.

The Tigers’ offense has been struggling all season, but especially against right-handed pitching, as they own the second-worst wOBA (.286) in baseball in that split – just a fraction above the MLB-worst Marlins.

* Final Score Prediction * Cleveland Indians: 8 – Detroit Tigers: 2

[8:15 p.m. EST] Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (ML: -175)
PIT: Dario Agrazal – R (2-0, 2.81 ERA/1.31 WHIP)
STL: Jack Flaherty – R (4-6, 4.64 ERA/1.23 WHIP)

We’ve had glimpses of Jack Flaherty displaying the type of dominance he’s capable of, but he hasn’t done it consistently. If that last outing before the break – allowing two hits, one walk and one run over seven innings – against a red-hot Giants lineup is any indication of where Flaherty is heading, we’re in for a treat tonight.

Not only has Flaherty pitched better at home this season, but he’s also done well against the Pirates lifetime. The righty has a 3-1 record to go along with a 2.48 ERA/1.00 WHIP in five career starts.

The Pirates have lost four straight since the All-Star break, while the Cardinals have won their last three games. Not to mention, Pittsburgh has only scored a total of 10 runs in those four games.

Dario Agrazal has been great for the Pirates since making his debut on June 15. However, he’s shown a huge weakness early on, allowing right-handed batters to hit for .353 average, compared to lefties hitting .148. The Cardinals lineup will have plenty of right-handed power coming at Agrazal tonight, so look for the rookie to take the first loss of his career.

All in all, we’ve got two teams heading in opposite directions. We like the Cardinals to continue their winning ways over a struggling Pirates team. Vegas did give the Cardinals a nice +0.4 IRT (implied run total) increase, which is actually the highest for any team on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction * St. Louis Cardinals: 6 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2

[8:15 p.m. EST] Under 10.5 – Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
CHW: Dylan Cease – R (1-0, 5.40 ERA/1.60 WHIP)
KC: Glenn Sparkman – R (2-5, 5.18 ERA/1.40 WHIP)

Whenever the Royals and White Sox have gotten together this season, runs have not been showing up on the scoreboard. In fact, nine of the 12 meetings between the teams have gone under the total – just as it did last night. We’re looking for more of the same tonight, as the SpreadKnowledge system has the total going under in this game as the top-rated play on the entire slate.

Glenn Sparkman may not be the greatest pitcher in baseball, but he certainly knows what he’s doing at Kauffman Stadium. The righty has a 2-2 record to go along with a 2.19 ERA/1.11 WHIP in nine appearances there this season. Sparkman’s last three outings at home have been against quality opponents (Twins, White Sox, Red Sox), and he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of those.

The White Sox offense has been dreadful against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, with a .292 xwOBA (quality of contact) and .126 ISO (power metric). For reference, we want to see xwOBA in the .350s and higher, while ISO is preferred in the .200s or better. Sparkman won’t get many strikeouts, but perhaps he can see an uptick since the White Sox have been striking out around 25% of the time over that span against righties.

Five of the last six White Sox games have gone under the total, and their offense is a big reason why as they posted no more than three runs in any of those contests.

Dylan Cease made his debut for Chicago on July 3, his only MLB outing up to this point. He allowed three runs over five innings while striking out six Tigers, so there’s not a ton to go off there. However, Cease should certainly benefit from facing a Royals lineup that has similar .293 xwOBA and .137 ISO numbers to his own team’s offense against righties over the last 21 days. Not to mention, the Royals are striking out just over 25% of the time against right-handed pitching over that span.

Four of the last six Royals games have gone under the total, with the only two overs coming against a weak collection of Tigers’ arms.

* Final Score Prediction * Kansas City Royals: 4 – Chicago White Sox: 3

[8:40 p.m. EST] Over 14.5 – San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
SF: Drew Pomeranz – L (2-9, 6.42 ERA/1.77 WHIP)
COL: Peter Lambert – R (2-1, 6.67 ERA/1.48 WHIP)

We missed the boat on the total going over in the second half of last night’s doubleheader, but Vegas is liking the bats to get back to action tonight. The game total has increased from 14.0 to 14.5, with both teams getting a +0.3 increase on their IRT (implied run total) – usually a good sign that offense is on the horizon. After playing two games yesterday, expect each team’s bullpen to be less effective than usual.

Drew Pomeranz has gotten absolutely ripped away from Oracle Park this season, posting a 1-4 record and 9.76 ERA/1.99 WHIP in seven starts. While he has done a decent job against the Rockies, Pomeranz has yet to face them at Coors Field.

Colorado’s offense has some issues it’s working through, especially after scoring a total of three runs in yesterday’s doubleheader, but this is a great spot to get back on the good foot. The star-studded lineup including Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story is not built to have long stretches of ineffectiveness.

Peter Lambert goes for the Rockies, and his brief time in the MLB and has been nothing short of miserable. Over his last four starts (17 2/3 innings), the rookie has allowed 30 hits, 20 runs and eight homers.

The Giants’ offense has been rocking and rolling, with at least seven runs in eight of the last 12 games. Prior to the second game of yesterday’s doubleheader, Rockies’ pitching had allowed 45 runs in the previous three contests.

According to the SpreadKnowledge system, the total going over is our second-strongest play of the night. Granted, we’re shooting for a sky-high total, but we’ve got plenty of reasons to know it’ll come through.

* Final Score Prediction * Colorado Rockies: 12 – San Francisco Giants: 9

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, July 2

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 128-110-4 (53.8%) *

[7:20 p.m. EST] Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (6-2, 4.22 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
ATL: Dallas Keuchel – L (1-1, 5.06 ERA/1.78 WHIP)

Vegas already made its statement on this game by giving the Phillies a massive 0.5 IRT increase. Not to mention, the Braves had the second-largest moneyline decrease of the day – not a good sign of things to come.

Aaron Nola has always done well against the Braves, and he comes into tonight’s matchup in peak form. The All-Star righty is 8-3 lifetime against Atlanta with a 2.46 ERA/1.07 WHIP in 14 starts. Nola has allowed only run and an 0.60 WHIP over his last 15 innings while striking out 20 hitters.

Dallas Keuchel takes the mound for the Braves and his return to baseball hasn’t exactly been great. In each of his two starts, Keuchel has allowed eight hits and three earned runs. Not to mention, Philly advanced metrics against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days is something we want a part of. The Phils have a massive .361 wOBA and .226 ISO against lefties in that span of time.

Philly is averaging just under 7.5 runs per game over their last seven, so having that recency bias and Nola with a great history against the Braves makes this bet all the sweeter.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – Atlanta Braves: 2

[10:10 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals at Seattle Mariners
STL: Jack Flaherty – R (4-5, 4.75 ERA/1.23 WHIP)
SEA: Matt Carasiti – R (0-0, 0.00 ERA/1.33 WHIP)

The top rating from the SK Trend Confidence comes to us from the Great Northwest. The over in tonight’s game is looking like a firm position, given how bad the pitching for Seattle has been. Matt Carasiti has been fine in limited work, but he’ll be handing the game off to Wade LeBlanc afterward — and that’s the best possible thing we’re looking for.

For whatever reason, the Cardinals just hit right-handed pitching much better — that’s just how it is. They’ll be able to take advantage of that later in the game, but LeBlanc’s basic style will suit them well early on.

I really like the future that Jack Flaherty has ahead of him, but things just haven’t been working out early on this season. In fact, things have been much worse on the road, where he owns a massive 6.68 ERA. Flaherty is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing nine hits (three homers and seven runs over 4 2/3 innings.

* Final Score Prediction * St. Louis Cardinals: 7 – Seattle Mariners: 5

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, June 28

!!! ATTENTION READERS !!! 

Just wanted to give everyone a heads up, but there won’t be any written articles tomorrow (6/29), next Friday (7/5) and next Saturday (7/6) due to prior commitments. Sorry for the inconvenience. All computer-generated picks will still be calculated and the site will be up and running on those days as usual.

 

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 125-106-4 (54%) *


[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 11 (-102) – Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
PIT: Chris Archer – R (3-6, 5.56 ERA/1.48 WHIP)
MIL: Jhoulys Chacin – R (3-8, 5.88 ERA/1.51 WHIP)

The Brewers’ offense surprisingly sputtered in their recent three-game series against the Mariners, but just watching yesterday’s game it was evident that bad luck played a part. Numerous hard-hit balls managed to find leather or landed a few steps from the wall.

Luckily, they’ll be facing a pitcher in Chris Archer who hasn’t been at his best. In fact, the right has allowed a homer in 11 of his 13 starts this season and owns a massive 8.42 ERA on the road. Since coming to Pittsburgh, Archer has allowed at least four runs and two homers in each of his three starts against Milwaukee.

On the other side, Jhoulys Chacin has been getting rocked all season. His last outing against the Pirates (on May 31) was downright brutal, as the righty allowed six hits/four walks and seven runs over 2 2/3 innings.

Good news for the Pirates – and the over – is that Brewers’ reliever Josh Hader pitched the final two innings yesterday to get the save. After pitching two innings the previous day, Hader has not entered the next day’s game once in his career.

The SK Trend Confidence rating has a B+ grade on the over in this game, given how many runs these two teams have put up against each other this season.

* Final Score Prediction * Milwaukee Brewers: 8 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 7

[8:40 p.m. EST] Over 12.5 (-110) – Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -134) at Colorado Rockies
LAD: Hyun-Jin Ryu – L (9-1, 1.27 ERA/0.84 WHIP)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (6-5, 4.91 ERA/1.57 WHIP)

In last night’s 12-8 slugfest, we saw exactly how helpful these hot temperatures at Coors Field are for the hitters. We’ve got the same conditions for tonight’s game, and that’s why Vegas has dramatically increased the total from 11.0 to 12.5, with the Dodgers (+0.9) and Rockies (+0.7) getting massive IRT increases.

There’s more reason to believe the Dodgers will add more runs to the game total. After all, Antonio Senzatela has been beaten over the head this season, especially at Coors field with a 6.21 ERA/1.59 WHIP. Senzatela did pitch well against the Dodgers last week, but we’ve seen plenty of teams capitalize offensively facing the same pitcher twice in a span of less than a week.

Hyun-Jin Ryu also faced the Rockies in his last start, allowing three runs (one earned) over six innings. However, Ryu has a 1-4 record over his last six start against Colorado, and it’s been even worse at Coors Field. In his last two starts there, the lefty has allowed 15 hits/six walks and 15 runs (10 earned) over six innings.

Just as the case was last night, the two bullpens will certainly be a factor and ultimately decide this one. In the month of June, the Dodgers’ bullpen has the second-best ERA (2.84) while the Rockies own the seventh-worst (5.46).

The SK Trend Confidence rating is strong on the Dodgers tonight in every fashion. After last night’s win, the Dodgers remain a perfect 7-0 against the Rockies this season.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Dodgers: 12 – Colorado Rockies: 10

[10:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 (-112) – St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres
STL: Michael Wacha – R (5-3, 5.59 ERA/1.67 WHIP)
SD: Eric Lauer – L (5-7, 4.32 ERA/1.32 WHIP)

There has only been a total of 9.0 at Petco Park twice this season, which is quite telling for a ballpark that doesn’t have the stigma of being a hitter’s park. For what it’s worth, both times the total finished on or above the mark. Vegas adjusted the total from 8.5 to 9.0 and both teams obviously got an IRT increase as well – Cardinals: +0.2, Padres: +0.3.

A good reason for the increased total is the Padres’ recent tear of offense, with 28 runs over the last three games. In the month of June, Padres’ games have gone over the total 15 times in 23 games with two pushes mixed in there.

Michael Wacha has been hit or miss lately, allowing six runs or more in three of his last six starts. The Padres will run a mostly right-handed lineup out at Wacha tonight, and he’s been getting crushed from that side of the plate. Opposing righties are walloping him for .338 batting average, .406 on-base percentage and 1.025 OPS this season. Of the 14 homers Wacha has allowed, 12 of them have come from righties.

While the Cardinals haven’t necessarily clobbered the ball of late, facing the Padres can certainly do them some good. Eric Lauer will have to deal with a nearly all right-handed lineup to deal with, including Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna, who are both 4-for-5 against him lifetime – Goldy has two homers while Ozuna has one.

If all of that wasn’t enough, San Diego’s bullpen has the third-worst bullpen ERA (6.31) in the month of June – only the Mets and Orioles have done worse.

* Final Score Prediction * San Diego Padres: 7 – St. Louis Cardinals: 4

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 16

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 108-90-4 (54.5%) *

[1:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles (ML: +138)
BOS: Brian Johnson – L (1-0, 12.71 ERA/2.29 WHIP)
BAL: John Means – L (6-4, 2.60 ERA/1.10 WHIP)

After two straight games of being massive underdogs, the Orioles find themselves with a much more reasonable number today at +138. And for good reason, as John Means takes the mound for Bird Gang. The rookie southpaw has been simply fantastic at home, going 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA/0.90 WHIP and opposing batting average of .180 this season.

Means has been quite effective against Boston this season, allowing only two runs and a 0.66 WHIP in 12 innings – one start each at home and on the road. The Red Sox really haven’t been that great against lefty pitching and actually own an 8-13 in games where the opposition has a left-handed starter on the mound.

The Orioles have seen a lefty starter in each of the first two games of this series, so they are more than prepared to face Brian Johnson after going against Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale. Johnson will be making his first appearance since early April because of elbow inflammation, so there’s certainly a chance he could be rusty in his return.

Of course, we are running the risk of relying on the Orioles’ bullpen, which has been absolutely ripped to shreds in this series and all season. However, Means should be able to give them some wiggle room, and possibly even get a longer leash than usual to avoid the sweep.

* Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles: 4 – Boston Red Sox: 3 *

[1:10 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals (ML: -122/1.5-run line: +134) at New York Mets
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (5-3, 3.47 ERA/1.50 WHIP)
NYM: Jason Vargas – L (3-3, 3.68 ERA/1.36 WHIP)

It’s a good sign for the Cards, considering the IRTs are moving in opposite directions for these teams: Cardinals: +0.3, Mets: -0.3.

Whatever Dakota Hudson has been drinking or eating since mid-May, he definitely needs to keep it up. Hudson has now allowed two runs or fewer in each of the last five starts, including only one run in each of the last three. The Red Birds will also benefit from Jeff McNeil and Wilson Ramos getting the day off.

Jason Vargas looked human in his last start, and today’s matchup against St. Louis won’t be an easy one. A few of these guys have seen Vargas well over the course of their careers, including leadoff hitter Matt Carpenter, who is 6-for-7 against him lifetime. If Carp is getting on base with great regularity today, that’ll set the tone for the Cards’ lineup.

The 14 mph winds blowing out to right-center field will be a factor here as well. Hudson is an extreme ground-ball pitcher, which won’t affect him that much, while Vargas and his fly-ball ways could be playing with fire here.

I’d feel safer going with the Cards on the moneyline today, but I don’t mind hitting up that 1.5-run line at +134 since the team has won by two runs or more in Hudson’s last five starts.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 6 – New York Mets: 2 *

[1:20 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 (-106) Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
PHI: Cole Irvin – L (2-1, 5.48 ERA/1.27 WHIP)
ATL: Mike Foltynewicz – R (6.02 ERA/1.32 WHIP)

Four of the five games in this season series have gone over the total – so what’s another one? Vegas likes that idea, as the IRTs have been increased for both sides (Braves: +0.4, Phillies: +0.2).

Cole Irvin had a nice feel-good story, getting the win in his MLB debut on Mother’s Day at Kansas City. Since then, there hasn’t been a whole lot to be excited about, but he has faced some difficult opponents in the Rockies, Cubs and Dodgers. Unfortunately, it doesn’t get any easier today, as the Braves own Top-10 numbers in most advanced metrics against left-handed pitching.

There’s not a ton of info on it just yet, but it looks like Vince Velasquez will start the game as the “opener” and then Irvin will come in behind. By the way, the current Braves’ roster owns a .362 batting average, .415 on-base percentage and .993 OPS lifetime against Velasquez.

Mike Foltynewicz goes for Atlanta and this has been a brutal start to 2019. Folty has been at his absolute worst in SunTrust Park this season, going 0-3 with a 7.18 ERA/1.40 WHIP and 11 homers allowed in 31 1/3 innings.

I’ll give the nod to the Braves today, considering J.T. Realmuto and Jay Bruce are out of the lineup. The Phils’ bullpen was outstanding last night, but they still have terrible numbers across the board this season, and completely blew the game on Friday.

All in all, we’re in a great position for runs today at an extreme hitter’s park with mediocre pitching (at best) and questionable bullpens.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 8 – Philadelphia Phillies: 6 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, June 12

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

* 2019 MLB Record: 104-82-4 (56%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies (ML: -137)
ARZ: Merrill Kelly – R (6-6, 4.12 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
PHI: Zach Eflin – R (6-5, 2.88 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

Zach Eflin loves sleeping in his own bed, as evidenced by the 4-1 record and 2.10 ERA he’s produced at Citizens Bank Park this season. Both teams had their IRTs decrease (Phillies: -0.3, D-Backs: -0.2) since the open today and that’s probably a good sign for Eflin, considering how well he’s pitched at home. With the total dropping a half-run, that has more to do with Eflin than his opposition.

I’m looking for a big shutdown performance from Eflin that’ll carry the Phils to victory. After all, Philly is unbeaten in all six of Eflin’s June starts over the last two seasons, while going 32-18 this season when a right-handed starter is on the mound.

30-year-old rookie Merrill Kelly has been outstanding in each of his last two starts, but he does own a 6.00 ERA in seven outings away from Chase Field this season. Kelly has been much worse against right-handed batters and the Phils have plenty of them (Segura, Hoskins, Realmuto, Kingery, Franco) that can make life difficult on him.

The Phils will be without Bryce Harper in the starting lineup tonight, but I still think we’re getting solid value here with Eflin on the mound.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 4 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals (1.5-run line: -116) at Miami Marlins
STL: Miles Mikolas – R (4.54 ERA/1.19 WHIP)
MIA: Jordan Yamamoto – R (MLB debut)

Well, it finally happened – the Marlins came crashing back down to Earth. After taking the first two of a three-game series in Milwaukee last week, the Marlins have now scored one run or fewer in five of the last six games.

Things won’t get any easier as Miami will have Jordan Yamamoto, making his MLB debut, against the usually-efficient Miles Mikolas. The Cardinals are 31-14 in games that Mikolas starts over the last two seasons, including a 15-6 mark on the road over that span. Not to mention, Mikolas is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in his career against the Marlins.

Yamamoto had a 3-5 record with a 3.58 ERA in 12 starts for the Marlins’ Double-A affiliate in Jacksonville this season. He was actually part of the deal that sent Christian Yelich to Milwaukee. Needless to say, we know who won that trade.

The Marlins are 2-14 at home as underdogs of +125 to +175 this season, and 0-9 at home when the total is 8.0 or 8.5.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 6 – Miami Marlins: 1 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: -135)
SEA: Opener <-to-> Tommy Milone – L (1-1, 3.10 ERA/1.08 WHIP)
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (8-2, 3.14 ERA/1.08 WHIP)

Jose Berrios has been outstanding at Target Field, compiling a 23-6 record there since 2017. The Twins are 11-2 in games that Berrios starts this season, with eight of them coming by two runs or more. Tonight’s outlook to cover the 1.5-run line looks much more optimistic, considering he won’t be squaring off against a fellow ace.

In fact, the Twins will face an opener from the Mariners’ bullpen before left-handed Tommy Milone comes in to handle the majority of the work on the mound. That’s bad news for Milone, considering Minnesota has excellent numbers against left-handed pitching, including a massive .439 wOBA and .298 ISO in that split over the last 21 days.

More Twins’ goodies, yay! Minnesota has been pounding on the weak this season, going 26-9 against teams with a losing record and have posted a resounding 24-4 record as a home favorite of -175 to -250 over the last three seasons

After starting the season 13-2, Seattle is now 10-28 over the last 38 games. Not to mention, the Mariners moved to 5-26 against teams with a winning record after last night’s loss.

Twins roll big!

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 8 – Seattle Mariners: 2 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, June 5

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

Game 3, NBA Finals: Toronto Raptors (+4.5, -105) at Golden State Warriors

It’s incredibly difficult to gauge this game without truly knowing the status of Klay Thompson. The part that is even more frustrating is that this decision likely won’t be up to him – rather, the Warriors’ training staff. Klay’s mobility will be tested out in pregame warmups, and a decision will be made at that time.

If Thompson is unable to go, it’ll be a huge advantage for the visiting Raptors, who actually won here in Oakland by 20 points back in December. Not only does he provide an unlimited outside range, but Klay’s defense is just flat out dominant. Losing two big aspects like that could be too much for even the almighty Warriors to overcome.

Aside from the first six minutes of the third quarter in Game 2, you can argue that the Raptors have controlled this series. Their length has proven to be difficult for the smaller Warriors, and if Klay does indeed miss tonight’s game, you have to believe the Raptors will throw box-and-1 and double-team defenses at him all night.

It is worth noting, the Warriors have either lost or won by single-digits in five of their seven home playoff games during this run. For the final score prediction, I’ll give it to Raptors with the assumption Klay sits out. If he’s in, I think the Warriors win, but without covering the spread.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Raptors: 108 – Golden State Warriors: 104 *

 

* 2019 MLB Record: 95-77-4 (55.2%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Minnesota Twins (ML: -130) at Cleveland Indians
MIN: Martin Perez – L (7-2, 3.71 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
CLE: bullpen game

By the way, I just want to mention how utterly furious I am at the onset. I had this gorgeous article written up for this game and how Carlos Carrasco was going to get beat over the head. Well, at about 3:00 p.m. EST, Carrasco was scratched and announced that he’ll be heading to the injured list.

Sigh. The life of a sports betting writer…

Our system has a B+ for Minnesota on the moneyline, and that was even when Carlos Carrasco was supposed to take the mound. Now, it’ll be a bullpen game for the Indians. Tyler Clippard will take the first inning and then it’s all up in the air from there. It is worth noting, though, that the Indians’ bullpen has the sixth-worst xFIP (expected fielding-independent pitching) over the last seven days. Oliver Perez is pretty much the only exception, but he probably won’t be used since he’s already pitched 4 2/3 innings over the last seven days, including throwing an inning last night.

Minnesota has been crushing baseballs all season, leading MLB in homers. Looking at it in a closer prism, though, the Twins’ projected lineup owns a massive .354 wOBA (weighted on-base average) and .278 ISO (power metric) against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. I assume they’ll some mostly right-handers tonight.

Martin Perez’s last start was his worst outing of the season, allowing six hits and six runs over 2 2/3 innings. Prior to that disaster, Perez had allowed three runs or fewer in six straight starts, while averaging about 6 1/3 innings per outing over that span. It also helps that the Indians own the sixth-lowest wOBA in baseball against left-handed pitching.

Behind Perez is the Minnesota bullpen, which ranks in the top-three of MLB of most advanced pitching metrics over the last 14 days.

Two trends to look at heading into tonight:
– Twins are 15-4 after a loss this season
– Twins are 21-10 in road games this season

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 5 – Cleveland Indians: 2 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-104) – Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
BAL: John Means – L (5-4, 2.80 ERA/1.10 WHIP)
TEX: Mike Minor – L (5-4, 2.74 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

Two outstanding lefties take the mound at Globe Life Park tonight. I’m usually nervous about taking the under in Texas with humid conditions, but not with John Means and Mike Minor going toe-to-toe.

Let’s start with the homey Minor, who owns a 2.50 ERA in six home starts this season. Unfortunately, he would’ve had better numbers, but a trashy fifth-inning defensive performance and a homer that scraped the foul pole in his last outing thwarted that. Discredit that one bad inning and ride Minor to a low total tonight. Yeehaw!

On the other side, Means has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his seven starts since being placed in the starting rotation. In fact, he allowed only run in four of those starts. Means has already pitched well in environments like Camden Yards, Coors Field, Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium – so what’s the big deal adding some Globe Life Park to the mix? Not to mention, the Rangers have a putrid .280 xwOBA and .139 ISO over the last 14 days against left-handed pitching.

Even with the humid conditions, Vegas dropped the IRTs for both sides (Orioles: -0.2, Rangers: -0.3) while the game total went from 9.5 to 9.0 as well. Neither team’s bullpen is one that I want to trust, but I’ll give the Rangers the edge at home after dropping one last night.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 4 – Baltimore Orioles: 3 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-102) – Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
CIN: Anthony DeSclafani – R (2-3, 4.97 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (4-3, 3.94 ERA/1.58 WHIP)

Weather permitting, we should have ourselves a good ole fashioned slugfest at Busch Stadium. The conditions are great for hitting, with temperatures in the upper-80s and humidity playing a big factor.

Vegas has taken notice, increasing the IRTs for both sides (Cardinals: +0.7, Reds: +0.4) and the game total from 8.5 to 9.5. Both of these teams have been playing to a lot of totals going under of late, so it makes the Vegas movement even more intriguing.

Anthony DeSclafani, from the great state of New Jersey, has been getting ripped over his last five starts. The righty has allowed 31 hits, 19 runs and nine over the last 23 1/3 innings of work. The heart of the Cards’ order has hit DeSclafani well over the course of their careers, so look for that to continue on Wednesday.

Dakota Hudson has been doing a good job of keeping the ball on the ground, but a lot of these Reds’ hitters can still make life difficult on him. Cincy did put eight baserunners (seven hits, one walk) up against him in their previous meeting. Not to mention, they have a fantastic .347 wOBA and .213 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 7 – Cincinnati Reds: 5 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, May 24

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 77-57-4 *

We have to talk about the ridiculous amount of bad luck that has loomed over my head in MLB these last two days. Bullpens are mostly to blame for all this:

– Wednesday: Under 6.5 in WSH/NYM game – Nats up 1-0 going into the eighth, Mets win 6-1
– Wednesday: Under 7.5 in ATL/SF game – Ronald Acuna strikes out but a passed ball continues the inning and leads to five more ATL runs, Braves win 9-2
– Thursday: WSH moneyline vs NYM – Nats up 4-3 going into the eighth, Mets win 6-4
– Thursday: Under 9 in NYY/BAL – Yanks up 5-2 going into the eighth, Yanks win 6-5
– Thursday: DET (1.5-run line) vs MIA – Tigers up 2-0 going into the ninth, Marlins win 5-2

Must have pissed someone off upstairs! OK, back to the drawing board…

[7:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at New York Mets (1.5-run line: -134)
DET: Gregory Soto – L (0-2, 10.80 ERA/2.20 WHIP)
NYM: Noah Syndergaard – R (3-4, 4.50 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

Aside from a rough outing in San Diego, Noah Syndergaard has been much better with three quality starts over his last four games. Tonight, he’ll get a matchup against a Tigers team that ranks second-worst in nearly every advanced metric against right-handed pitching. Syndergaard has been outstanding at Citi Field over the course of his career, compiling a 24-12 record and 2.75 ERA in 49 starts.

Detroit has been swept in three straight series, including the last one to Miami – the team with the fewest wins in the National League. The Tigers’ offense has been brutal, sporting .232 wOBA and .102 ISO numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days, to go along with a 26.8% K-rate.

It also doesn’t help an anemic set of bats that the wind will be blowing in from left field at about 13 mph tonight in Citi Field.

We saw the Mets roll out an all-right-handed lineup in yesterday’s game, and that’ll play well against Tigers’ left-handed starter Gregory Soto and his horrific set of numbers. Soto has been especially bad against right-handed batters, allowing a .361 batting average, .405 on-base percentage and 1.099 OPS in 40 plate appearances. That inward-wind will likely affect the Mets’ offense in some capacity, but I do think they string together a few runs early against Soto that’ll carry them to victory.

The Mets are coming off a four-game sweep of the Nationals, while the Tigers have lost nine consecutive games, eight of them coming by two runs or more. Let’s go with the -134 odds on the 1.5-run line here, as opposed to the -290 odds that are on the moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 6 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: -104)
CHW: Reynaldo Lopez – R (3-4, 5.14 ERA/1.50 WHIP)
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (6-2, 3.39 ERA/1.13 WHIP)

The last start for Jose Berrios at Target Field was an absolute disaster, allowing 12 hits, five runs and two homers over 5 2/3 innings. But that’s just simply one of the biggest misnomers of all time – he’s still 22-6 at home since 2017.

Berrios has thrived in this matchup against the White Sox too, considering his best pitch (the curveball) is one that they struggle mightily against. Over his career, Berrios has gone 7-1 with a 2.12 ERA in nine starts against Chicago.

Reynaldo Lopez has been much better of late, but he’ll be running into the hottest offense in baseball. Yesterday in Anaheim, the Twins homered eight times – marking the second time they’ve done that this season. Minnesota already has 98 dingers through 49 games, tying them for the second-most through a team’s first 50 games in MLB history.

I’m not ready to say that Lopez has officially turned the corner yet because mostly all of his solid outings this season have come against subpar competition. Newsflash: the Twins are not subpar competition. In fact, Minnesota has scored at least seven runs in six of its last eight games!

It’s quite interesting that the White Sox took those final two games of the four-game series down in Houston. However, it’s time for them to come back down to Earth against Target Field Berrios! Let’s take the -104 odds on the 1.5-run line and skip the -196 odds that stand on the moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 7 – Chicago White Sox: 1 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Over 10 (-104) – Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals
ATL: Mike Foltynewicz – R (0-3, 6.91 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
STL: Miles Mikolas – R (4-4, 4.88 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

Mike Foltynewicz had his best outing of the season last time out against the Brewers, but he did get beat over the head by these same Cardinals 10 days ago. St. Louis hung eight runs on the veteran righty, including three long-balls, en route to a football-like 14-3 score. Prior to Sunday’s outing, the opposition scored at least nine runs in all four of Folty’s starts.

A lot of these Cardinals’ hitters have done well when facing Foltynewicz, as the current roster has a combined .918 lifetime OPS against him. Not to mention, the Red Birds have a right-handed heavy lineup and Folty is getting bulldozed by righties so far this season to the tune of a .327 batting average, .727 slugging percentage and 1.111 OPS.

Miles Mikolas had just the opposite of Folty in his last outing, getting walloped for nine hits and seven runs over 1 1/3 innings at Texas. Mikolas isn’t the type of pitcher that fools many hitters – he’ll rely more on power and precision. When looking at this matchup against the Braves, it doesn’t seem like that type of game plan will work most of the night.

It was quite telling to see a 9.5-run total set to open this game at Busch Stadium, which isn’t necessarily a hitter’s park. However, the 9.5-run total has since jumped up to 10, with the implied run totals increasing slightly for each team – Cardinals: +0.3, Braves: +0.1. The Red Birds’ 5.6 IRT is the second-highest team total on tonight’s slate, only behind the Rockies, who will be facing the Orioles at Coors Field.

The weather should play a big part here as well. It’ll be an uncharacteristically warm evening in St. Louis, which should help the ball flight. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper-80s for the first pitch of this game, with the wind blowing out to left field at about 10 mph.

All in all, most of the runs will likely come from the Cardinals’ side of things, but don’t be surprised to see the Braves bring something to the table as well.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 8 – Atlanta Braves: 6 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, May 19

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh and listen to Al on 104.9 FM’s “The Horn” today at 11:30 p.m. EST talk about these picks and more!

* 2019 MLB Record: 70-44-4 (61.3%) *

[1:20 p.m. EST] Milwaukee Brewers (-125) at Atlanta Braves
MIL: Brandon Woodruff – R (6-1, 3.72 ERA)
ATL: Mike Foltynewicz – R (0-3, 8.02 ERA)

We’ve got two pitchers heading in absolutely different directions. The Braves did take the first two games of this series, so naturally, I’m expecting the Brew Crew to avoid the sweep today. You know me and my affinity for teams in that scenario.

Brandon Woodruff has allowed a total of three runs over his last four starts, all NL East opponents – and not one of them was the Marlins. So, what’s adding another team to the list?

Mike Foltynewicz has gotten ripped in every outing this season — no sugar coating it. The righty has allowed 23 runs (19 earned) and eight homers in a total of 21 1/3 innings. Not to mention, the opposing team has scored at least nine runs in every one of Folty’s starts this season.

Milwaukee has one of the best lineups in baseball and should take advantage of the struggling Folty early on today.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 9 – Atlanta Braves: 4 *

[3:05 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals (-150) at Texas Rangers
STL: Jack Flaherty – R (4-3, 4.34 ERA)
TEX: Drew Smyly – L (0-3, 6.85 ERA)

The Cardinals have been right around league-average against left-handed pitching, but Drew Smyly is no average pitcher – he’s much worse. The aging lefty has allowed at least four runs in four of his last five starts, and that’s while only making it out of the fifth inning once — yikes! Not only that, but Smyly has allowed five homers and a massive 1.69 WHIP over those last five starts.

I’m not in love with Jack Flaherty’s road numbers (1-2, 7.23 ERA in four starts) but he’s much better than Smyly and whomever the Rangers’ bullpen has coming out behind him. Flaherty was supposed to have a massive 2019 campaign, so perhaps the beginning of that comes alive today.

St. Louis does have some serious right-handed power at the top of its lineup and ultimately, I feel like that’ll be the difference — especially early on —  today.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 11 – Texas Rangers: 5 *  

[4:00 p.m. EST] San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks (1.5-run line: +120)
SF: Drew Pomeranz – L (1-4, 5.93 ERA)
ARZ: Robbie Ray – L (3-1, 3.14 ERA)

The Diamondbacks have the second-best wOBA (.367) and ISO (.229) against left-handed pitching. Sure, MadBum had a solid start against them last night, but Drew Pomeranz is a far worse lefty – and if you want to look at judiciously, MadBum was reeeeeally good practice for Pomeranz. The lesser lefty, Pomeranz, has been hit hard in three of his last four outings before heading to the injured list.

Robbie Ray has been strong over his last five outings. Even in a start at Coors Field back on May 3, only one of five runs he allowed were earned. The Giants have not fared well against left-handed pitching this season, ranking second-worst in wOBA (.264) and fourth-worst in ISO (.114).

The analytics are certainly there – a solid lefty (Ray) going up against a team that sucks against lefties and a shitty lefty going up against a team that is great against lefties. Now, the D-Backs and Ray just have to go out there and do their job.

Last but not least, the total on this game has dropped all the way down to 8.0, thus giving the indication that Ray should be on his A-game today.

* Final Score Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 1 *