Tag: Toronto Blue Jays

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, May 2

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 38-28-2 (58%) *

[4:05 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (-159)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (2-1, 5.63 ERA)
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (2-1, 3.82 ERA)

The Nationals will look to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the Cardinals and luckily, Dakota Hudson and his 1.92 WHIP will be taking the mound. Hudson lucked out in his last outing by drawing the lowly Reds offense, but this time he’ll be facing a Nationals team that has plenty of power packed in this lineup, despite missing Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon.

Washington will have Stephen Strasburg on the hill, and he’s been fantastic in each of the last two outings, allowing only six hits, three walks and two runs over 15 innings while striking out 20 batters. This is why the Nats pay Stras the big bucks – to shut down losing streaks like the one they’re on now.

Even with all the turmoil going on in DC, it’s incredibly tough to sweep a team in a four-game series on the road. Look for Strasburg to have a solid outing and save his team from the ultimate embarrassment at home.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 6 – St. Louis Cardinals: 3 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (-1.5, -136) at Chicago White Sox
BOS: David Price – L (1-2, 3.60 ERA)
CHW: Lucas Giolito – R (2-1, 5.30 ERA)

Are the Red Sox fully back on track yet? I wouldn’t go that far, but they did take a big step in doing so by sweeping the A’s in a three-game series. Not to mention, the defending champs are 8-4 over the last 12 games.

David Price takes the hill for Boston, and he does look like someone who is fully back on track. He has now allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last three starts while striking out at least seven in those games. While Price doesn’t have much of a history against this Chicago roster, the lefty has held Jose Abreu in check (3-for-21, 4 Ks) over the course of his career.

Lucas Giolito will be making his first start since straining his hamstring, which led to a 10-day stint on the injured list. Surely, he could have some rust, but this is a Red Sox offense that scored 21 runs over the last three games. Not to mention, Giolito will likely be limited in his first start back, and the White Sox just played a doubleheader yesterday – the bullpen is not coming into this game at 100 percent.

Vegas has already adjusted the IRT for each side, giving the Red Sox at +0.3 increase while the White Sox got a -0.3 decrease. In addition, Boston also had its moneyline increase massively, from -156 to -205 – the largest on today’s entire MLB slate. We should have more than enough confidence to roll with the 1.5-run line at -136, as opposed to the massive -210 moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Chicago White Sox: 3 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels
TOR: Aaron Sanchez – R (3-1, 2.32 ERA)
LAA: Tyler Skaggs – L (2-2, 3.15 ERA)

I’m a big believer in Aaron Sanchez, and when he finally gets his control issues in order, we’ll be looking at a pitcher going six innings with ease. Unfortunately, the righty has issued 15 walks over his last 20 innings of work. Hence, why Sanchez has only made it out of the sixth inning in two of his six starts this season.

Aside from a rough outing at Wrigley Field, Tyler Skaggs has been solid in three of his four starts. Tonight, he’ll face a Blue Jays team that ranks third-worst in power metrics (ISO: .109) against left-handed pitching. Not to mention, the Blue Jays had a string of five straight games going under the total snapped last night, but that was because the Angels scored six runs – the Blue Jays only scored three.

I feel like both starting pitchers will keep runs off the board early and most the offense will come against the bullpens, albeit too late.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 4 – Toronto Blue Jays: 3 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, April 27 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[2:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins (-1.5, -116)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-1, 8.59 ERA)
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (3-1, 2.97 ERA)

Death, taxes and Jose Berrios pitching at Target Field. This is a guy who loves sleeping in his own bed and getting that good home cooking. In two home starts this season, Berrios is 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA, allowing only six hits, two walks and two runs while striking out 17 over 14 1/3 innings. In fact, he is 20-5 when pitching in Minnesota since 2017.

For the Orioles, it’ll be Dan Straily taking the mound, and he has been nowhere near as efficient as his counterpart this season. Straily, who has surrendered seven homers over 14 2/3 innings this season, will be facing a deadly Twins lineup that is tied for fifth-most in MLB – despite playing the fewest games of any team. Not to mention, Minnesota hit five homers last night against Baltimore pitching.

The scene is set this afternoon for a comfortable Twins victory, so we’ll take them on the 1.5-run line and only lay -116 as opposed to the massive -260 moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 6 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

[2:15 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
CIN: Tyler Mahle – R (0-2, 3.52 ERA)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (1-1, 5.89 ERA)

The Reds exploded for 12 runs last night and will have a great chance to start another carousel around the basepaths against Dakota Hudson, who has a massive 2.09 WHIP this season. Not to mention, he has allowed eight homers over 18 1/3 innings of work. With the wind blowing out to left field at about 14-16 mph during the game, this could definitely be problematic for Hudson and the Cardinals if he continues those lackluster ways.

Tyler Mahle takes the hill for Cincy, coming off two rough outings out West, where he allowed 18 hits and eight runs over 12 innings in matchups against the Dodgers and Padres. Just like Hudson, if he continues to allow baserunners to get aboard, we could see some big blasts that bring those guys around to home plate.

I do feel like the Reds come back with another victory in this one, but you would have to expect the Cardinals to put up a good fight after getting embarrassed at home last night – that doesn’t happen often.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 7 – St. Louis Cardinals: 6 *

[3:07 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Oakland A’s at Toronto Blue Jays
OAK: Brett Anderson – L (3-1, 3.04 ERA)
TOR: Aaron Sanchez – R (2-1, 2.77 ERA)

The A’s have not been able to figure out Blue Jays’ pitching, only scoring eight runs over the four matchups this season. And it won’t get any easier today as Aaron Sanchez takes the mound with a 2.77 ERA. This will only be the second start at Rogers Centre for Sanchez this season, but we’re looking for him to be quite comfortable in the friendly home confines.

The lefty Brett Anderson takes the mound for the A’s, and he has been able to limit opposing hitters to one home run over 26 2/3 innings this season. Anderson has been able to wiggle his way out of a few jams early on, but it’s a good sign that his control has been intact, allowing two walks or fewer in four of his five starts.

The IRT in this game came down a half-run to nine, so Vegas is thinking both starters should be quite effective in this matchup. I’ll have to agree and put my money on the under this afternoon.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 4 – Oakland A’s: 3 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, April 26

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

We’re back and fully recharged from the Betting on Sports America Conference in Secaucus, NJ. A big thanks go out to everyone that set up the great event and the attendees that stopped by the SpreadKnowledge booth. You’re all welcome for the orange pens!

There might be two games (Brewers-Mets & Marlins-Phillies) threatened by the inclement weather but plenty of other action going on around MLB tonight for us to take advantage of.

[7:07 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays
OAK: Mike Fiers – R (2-2, 8.28 ERA)
TOR: Marcus Stroman – R (1-3, 1.76 ERA)

The current Blue Jays’ roster hasn’t seen much of Mike Fiers, but when they have – oh my goodness. Toronto’s roster has a combined .362 batting average and 1.005 OPS in 49 career plate appearances, which is mind-blowing, considering Justin Smoak’s 2-for-12 (with 6 Ks) mark is holding the numbers back somewhat. Fiers has just flat out sucked over his last three starts, allowing six runs in each of them and a total of 23 hits and five homers over the last 10 innings. Yikes!

Marcus Stroman hasn’t had the best luck, as you can see from his 1-3 record to go along with the microscopic 1.76 ERA. But he did skill this same A’s team in his last start, allowing only one run over eight innings. It is, however, a very tough proposition to be that successful against a team for the second time in as many starts.

One other factor is the MLB debut of Vlad Guerrero Jr. tonight, which should have quite an electric feel in the ballpark. I’d expect all of these hitters to be at the top of their games with the spotlight shining a little brighter than usual for an A’s-Blue Jays game. Also, both teams (A’s: +0.3, Blue Jays: +0.2) had their respective IRTs increase slightly, thus hinting to some additional offense.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 6 – Oakland Athletics: 5 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (-145)
CIN: Anthony DeSclafani – R (0-1, 5.59 ERA)
STL: Miles Mikolas – R (2-1, 4.97 ERA)

With the exception of Yadier Molina (3-for-22, 4 Ks) and Kolten Wong (0-for-15, 7 Ks), a lot of these Cardinals hitters have made life a living hell for Anthony DeSclafani. In fact, their current roster holds a combined .286 batting average and .891 OPS against DeSclafani in 143 career plate appearances. Much of that is due to the big boppers on St. Louis, Matt Carpenter (9-for-22, 3 HR, 1.536 OPS) and Paul Goldschmidt (8-for-13, 3 doubles, 1 HR, 1.720 OPS).

Miles Mikolas takes the mound for the Cards, and he’ll look to keep the momentum rolling from his last outing against the Mets. The 30-year-old righty only allowed four hits, two walks and two runs over eight innings – clearly his best start of the season. After losing his season debut, Mikolas has rebounded with a 2-0 record over the team’s last four starts, and the Cardinals are undefeated in each of those four starts.

Look for St. Louis to stay on the good foot and win for the fifth straight time that Mikolas starts.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 4 – Cincinnati Reds: 3 *

[9:40 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks
CHC: Kyle Hendricks – R (1-3 3.54 ERA)
ARZ: Robbie Ray – L (0-1, 3.95 ERA)

Apparently, the theme of the evening is pitchers facing the team they just saw in their previous start. Both of these guys pitched very well at Wrigley Field last weekend, albeit in conditions that were not favorable for offenses. In fact, every single game of last weekend’s Cubs-Diamondbacks went under the total.

Well, Vegas thinks we’ll see a much different type of game as the total has jumped from 8.5 to 9. 5 – that gives us IRT increases (Cubs: +0.6, D-Backs: +0.4) as well. And I agree in thinking we’ll see plenty of runs in the desert tonight.

While Robbie Ray usually gets a good number of strikeouts, he has allowed at least four walks in three of his five starts this season. The Cubs didn’t have an answer for him and the D-Backs bullpen last weekend, but seeing Ray for the second time in five days should give their offense the upper hand.

I’ve never been a fan of Kyle Hendricks, but he did make the D-Backs look silly with 11 strikeouts over seven innings. Once again, I do think there’s a big advantage for offenses twice within a week. Prior to that last outing against Arizona, Hendricks had allowed 14 runs (eight earned) and struck out 10 batters over 13 1/3 innings of work. Look for him to come back down to Earth tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 7 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 6 *