Tag: Washington Nationals

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, May 23 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 77-54-4 *

[12:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals (moneyline: -153) at New York Mets
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (4-3, 3.32 ERA/0.98 WHIP)
NYM: Steven Matz – L (3-3, 3.96 ERA/1.27 WHIP)

The Nationals have the largest moneyline increase of the day, going from -121 to -153. Stephen Strasburg will be tasked with helping Washington avoid the four-game sweep, and there are more than a few things working in his favor.

For one, Strasburg has thrown five quality starts in his last six outings. His 2.01 ERA in six daytime games and 17 strikeouts against the Mets in 12 2/3 innings have already played out well this season. Strasburg will also benefit from an all right-handed Mets’ lineup today – righties have a dismal .257 on-base percentage against him while striking out 31.4% of the time this season.

Stephen Matz has some rough outings under his belt of late. Not to mention, the Nationals have a solid .343 wOBA and very-low 14.1% K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon, batting No. 1 and No. 3 in the lineup, have put plenty of hurt on Matz in the past.

Looking at the implied run totals (IRT), the Nationals increased +0.2 while the Mets decreased -0.2. That, along with the moneyline increase for Washington, makes it a likely scenario that the four-game sweep will be avoided.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 5 – New York Mets: 2 *

[12:35 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-110) – New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
NYY: Masahiro Tanaka – R (3-3, 3.09 ERA/1.13 WHIP)
BAL: Dylan Bundy – R (2-5, 4.66 ERA/1.27 WHIP)

We might actually have an under in this series for once. After seeing a total of double-digits in three straight games, it’s time for a good pitching performance in the daytime.

Masahiro Tanaka has been outstanding in his last three starts, allowing a 0.78 WHIP and only three runs over 19 1/3 innings of work. The Orioles did plenty of work on the lefty CC Sabathia last night, but they still have a .270 wOBA and 27.1% K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Tanaka will also benefit from having Austin Romine, a much better defensive-minded catcher, behind the plate today.

It’s always a scary proposition taking the under in a game where Dylan Bundy is pitching, but the Yanks are giving Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres the day off today. These two guys have combined to hit 20 homers against the Orioles this season, so luckily, we’ve got that out of the equation. Bundy has actually allowed no earned runs in two of his last three starts.

Since it’s a day game, most people probably won’t even realize that Sanchez and Torres are out of the lineup. Don’t be one of those people and catch some value on the under in this game!

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 5 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers (1.5-run line: +132)
MIA: Trevor Richards – R (1-5, 4.44 ERA/1.38 WHIP)
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (4-4, 3.41 ERA/1.01 WHIP)

This is the Tigers’ highest moneyline odds (-160) of the season – their previous high of -145 was a game they won as well. It makes plenty of sense, though, with Matthew Boyd on the mound. The lefty ran into two tough opponents (vs. HOU, vs. OAK) in his last two starts but that certainly won’t be the case today against the Marlins, who owns league-worst advanced metrics against lefties. Not to mention, Miami has a putrid .223 wOBA and .083 ISO in that split over the last 14 days.

On the other side, Trevor Richards will be pitching for the Marlins – and that’s great news for the Tigers. Richards has allowed two homers in four of his last five starts, so it’s no surprise either that the Marlins have lost all but one of his nine starts this season.

The total jumped up an entire run from 8.0 to 9.0, and you have to believe that’s because of the Tigers and their impending matchup against Richards. Look for Boyd to fry the fish and get the easy win in the process.

* Final Score Prediction: Detroit Tigers: 7 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 22

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 74-51-4 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10 (-118) – New York Yankees (1.5-run line -168) at Baltimore Orioles
NYY: CC Sabathia – L (2-1, 2.97 ERA/1.21 WHIP)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-3, 8.51 ERA/1.89 WHIP)

Once again, the top SK Trend Confidence rating is the over in the Orioles-Yankees game. And it’s not hard to see why, with Dan Straily taking the mound for Baltimore. The veteran righty has gotten lit up all season, especially at Camden Yards, allowing nine homers and a 2.35 WHIP over 18 1/3 innings. Straily has allowed a total 15 runs over his last 12 innings of work and the opposition has scored at least seven runs in each of his last four starts.

The Yankees’ offense is rolling, with a double-digit run output in each of their last three games. Much like last night, the best value is going with the over, considering the Yanks’ crazy moneyline (-235), but I don’t mind taking them on the 1.5-run line (-166). Whenever we see so much juice on that 1.5-run line, it almost always tends to win.

CC Sabathia has been on top of his game this season, but if there is a knock on him, it’s the 4.70 ERA and .237 opposing average he’s allowed on the road. The Orioles have hit their fair share of homers against the Yanks this season, but it’s not much of a surprise, considering both teams play in extreme hitter’s parks.

Look for the Yanks to continue adding on to the hurt Straily’s been feeling at Camden Yards this season. But, of course, we’re also looking for the Orioles to chip in a few as well on the total.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 10 – Baltimore Orioles: 4 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 (-114) – Washington Nationals at New York Mets
WSH: Max Scherzer – R (2-5, 3.72 ERA/1.19 WHIP)
NYM: Jacob deGrom – R (3-5, 3.98 ERA/1.17 WHIP)

Sure, both guys haven’t been at the top of their games for most of this season. However, the history of each pitcher against the opposition is just too good to pass up and the SK Trend Confidence rating is high on the total going under.

Max Scherzer will certainly be determined to take down the reigning Cy Young award winner and his squad. The Mets’ current roster has a combined .165 batting average, .219 on-base percentage and 38% K-rate against him lifetime. Although Scherzer has thrown a quality start in six of the last seven outings, it’s amazing to believe that the Nationals are only 2-8 in his 10 starts this season.

Jacob deGrom got absolutely waxed in his last start, which came against the lowly Marlins. We can call that bad luck or just a case of Miami having a good history against deGrom, but I’ll be willing to overlook that. Main reason – the Nationals’ current roster has a combined .175 batting average, .212 on-base percentage and 34.5% K-rate against deGrom.

Given the history of these pitchers against each team, we won’t see much scoring in this game. I’ll give the Mets the final advantage with the better bullpen and this odd trend of the Nationals losing the majority of Scherzer’s starts.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 3 – Washington Nationals: 2 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 8.5 (-106) – Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -166)
CHW: Ivan Nova – R (2-4, 7.42 ERA/1.80 WHIP)
HOU: Gerrit Cole – R (4-4, 3.56 ERA/1.04 WHIP)

Ivan Nova has been absolutely ripped to shreds this season, so it’s not a good sign for him to be facing an Astros team that ranks at, or near, the top of every advanced metric against right-handed pitching. While the veteran righty has allowed at least eight baserunners in each one of his nine starts this season, teams like the Blue Jays and Indians weren’t able to capitalize with runs – don’t expect Nova to be so lucky tonight against the Astros.

Gerrit Cole has only allowed one run over his last four starts, and I would expect that to continue today against a White Sox team that has scored two runs or fewer in four of the last six games. It’s interesting to note, a James McCann and Yonder Alonso have a decent history against Cole, so maybe they can step into one and help us out with the total.

With all that information on today’s starting pitchers and opposing offenses, we should fully expect the Astros to beat Nova over the head and the cover the total as well. With a little luck on our side, maybe (JUST MAYBE!) the White Sox can add a run or two.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 9 – Chicago White Sox: 2 *

[9:45 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-116) – Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants
ATL: Max Fried – L (6-2, 2.86 ERA/1.13 WHIP)
SF: Jeff Samardzija – R (2-2, 3.69 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

We’ve got a heavy trend of totals going under with both sides and they’ll be playing in one of the worst parks in baseball for offense. What a perfect match.

Jeff Samardzija gets a difficult matchup against the Braves, but he has been much better at Oracle Park this season, posting a 2.61 ERA and allowing an opposing batting average of .211. Atlanta’s offense has been somewhat neutralized since coming to San Francisco and its last four games have actually gone under the total. That also makes eight of the last 12 for the Braves that have suffered the same fate.

The key to the under tonight is the California kid, Max Fried, and his matchup against a Giants team that usually always struggles on offense. San Francisco games have gone under the total in three straight and in five of the last six. Fried is coming off one of his best outings of the season, throwing six innings of shutout ball while allowing two hits, two walks and striking out five.

All in all, the ballpark is going to help us more than anything, but the two pitchers certainly help the situation. Look for Atlanta to get the win, with Fried pitching a solid game.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 4 – San Francisco Giants: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, May 20

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 71-46-4 (60.7%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals (1.5-run line: +106) at New York Mets
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (4-1, 2.91 ERA/1.04 WHIP)
NYM: Wilmer Font – R (1-1, 7.08 ERA/1.52 WHIP)

Patrick Corbin has thrown eight quality starts in nine outings this season, three of them coming against the Mets. The lefty has made them look silly all season, mainly in the last two matchups as he totaled 20 strikeouts in 14 innings while only walking two batters. If that wasn’t bad enough, the Mets own a dreadful .197 wOBA, .059 ISO and 32.8% K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Not to mention, the Nationals have won five of Corbin’s last six starts. All five of those wins have come by two runs or more.

To say the Mets are struggling would be an understatement, getting shutout twice over the weekend in Miami, and their manager Mickey Callaway is hanging on by a thread. I don’t think there’s any way they could possibly muster up enough strength to get this train back on the track until Callaway is gone.

Wilmer Font will be making his third appearance for the Mets and the last one against these same Nats did not go well. The righty allowed six hits, two walks and five runs over 2 1/3 innings en route to getting the loss. Now that the Nationals’ lineup is mostly back together, look for them to put another world of hurt on Font.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 7 – New York Mets: 2 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (1.5-run line: +114)
SEA: Mike Leake – R (3-4, 4.00 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
TEX: Mike Minor – L (4-3, 2.61 ERA/1.13 WHIP)

Mike Leake has been much better of late, but he does run into a Rangers’ lineup that consistently had his number. The current Texas lineup has a combined .351 batting average and .973 OPS in 173 plate appearances against him. In the last meeting between the teams on April 27, Leake allowed 10 hits and nine runs (five earned) over five innings. The Rangers have also lost five of the last six games that Leake has started.

Aside from Opening Day, Mike Minor has been outstanding at Globe Life Park this season, going 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA in four starts and allowing an opposing batting average of .202. The remodeled lefty had a season-high 13 strikeouts in seven innings against the Mariners back in that same start where Leake got thrashed. Seattle’s current roster also owns a 33% K-rate against Minor.

All in all, I think this is going to be a massive offensive display from the Rangers tonight. Texas has the highest IRT (6.1) on tonight’s slate and the game has a total of 11 – I don’t see the Mariners contributing much to the party. It’s interesting to note that the Rangers have only been favored eight times this season and are 6-2 in those games.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 10 – Seattle Mariners: 2 *

[9:45 p.m. EST] Atlanta Braves (moneyline: -138) at San Francisco Giants
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (4-1, 0.98 ERA/1.01 WHIP)
SF: Andrew Suarez – L (season debut)

Mike Soroka has been outstanding this season, allowing one earned run or fewer in all six of his starts. Not to mention, the young righty still hasn’t allowed a homer yet in 2019. That’ll play well at Oracle Park, which is a notorious pitcher’s park.

On the other side, Andrew Suarez will be making his season debut, and he gets a very tough matchup against a Braves’ team that ranks sixth in all of baseball with a .341 wOBA and 113 wRC+. Suarez wasn’t doing well in Triple-A, posting a 2-3 record with a 6.33 ERA.

We’re looking at a massive mismatch of starting pitchers and that should give the Braves an early advantage, which they should hold on to.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 2 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 (-104) – Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
ARZ: Luke Weaver – R (3-2, 3.16 ERA/1.11 WHIP)
SD: Chris Paddack – R (3-2, 1.99 ERA/0.75 WHIP)

Vegas made quite the statement by putting a 6.5 total on this game, but it does make sense, considering the current form of each offense against right-handed pitching. Both teams have a wOBA under .300, while Diamondbacks have a K-rate of 28% and the Padres at 30.2% against righties over the last 14 days, and that could be why their IRTs both decreased as well – Diamondbacks: -0.3, Padres: -0.2.

Luke Weaver has five quality starts in his last seven outings, one of those coming against these same Padres. Weaver struck out eight batters over 6 1/3 innings but did take the tough loss in a tight 2-1 game — Hopefully, something like we’ll see tonight.

Chris Paddack is coming off his worst start of the season, but it came against a very tough Dodgers’ lineup. He did allow six runs but only three of them were earned. Nonetheless, Paddack has been quite effective, throwing four straight quality starts before that game against the Dodgers.

The young righty doesn’t go too deep into games, but the Padres’ bullpen owns the third-best xFIP (3.71) in all of baseball.

Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres: 3 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 2 *

MLB & NBA Playoffs Betting Value Picks for Friday, May 17

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

—

NBA Playoffs Pick: Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5, -110)

It took the Toronto Raptors three quarters to finally show themselves but did come through for us in relinquishing the game on Wednesday night. Just as we saw, the Milwaukee Bucks are a more well-rounded team from top to bottom and that’ll be more evident tonight.

The Bucks shot 25% from 3-point range, while Kyle Lowry of the Raptors went 7-for-9 from behind the arc — and Milwaukee still won. Believe me, neither of those will happen tonight, and the Bucks will coast to victory.

SK Trend Confidence rating believes the Bucks with the 6.5-point spread is the best value pick of the evening. Basically, you don’t even need to waste all that money ($270 to win $100) betting the Bucks outright when you can just sit back and watch them easily devour the Raptors.

– – –

* 2019 MLB Record: 66-39-4 (62.9%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 8 (-116) – Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals (moneyline: -155)
CHC: Cole Hamels – L (3-0, 3.08 ERA/1.07 WHIP)
WSH: Max Scherzer – R (2-4, 3.64 ERA/1.15 WHIP)

The Nationals got a nice +0.5 boost to their implied run total (IRT) and their moneyline odds increased from -124 to -155, which is third-highest on the slate. Since Gerardo Parra came to DC, the Nats’ offense got a jolt of energy and more help is on the way with Trea Turner returning off the injured list tonight, while Juan Soto and Anthony Rendon have also returned in recent days. Parra won’t be in the starting lineup tonight against the lefty, but he could have an impact pinch hitting later in the game.

Max Scherzer is on the mound for the Nationals and it’s a bit surprising that they’ve only won two of his nine starts this season. Look for that trend to get bucked as the Cubs’ current roster has a combined 38.6% K-rate in 101 career plate appearances against Scherzer – Javy Baez and Kris Bryant have struck out a combined 14 times in 21 plate appearances – Yikes!

Cole Hamels goes for the Cubbies, and he’s done a fine job of limiting damage from opposing teams. The veteran lefty has been slightly worse away from Wrigley Field, allowing an opposing batting average of 66 points higher on the road than at home. I don’t think Hamels gets absolutely rocked tonight, but we could certainly see a score similar to the one Chicago lost by in Cincinnati last night.

It’s also interesting to note that Scherzer has a K-prop of 9.5 tonight, with +120 juice on the over. I’ve found myself gravitating more to these props lately, so that’s just some side action to throw on top.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 5 – Chicago Cubs: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics (1.5-run line: -116) at Detroit Tigers
OAK: Frankie Montas – R (4-2, 2.78 ERA/1.26 WHIP)
DET: Daniel Norris – L (2-1, 2.63 ERA/1.41 WHIP)

It has certainly been a rough stretch for the Tigers, allowing 8.2 runs per game over their last nine contests. Yesterday’s 17-3 thumping appears like it could happen all over again, as evidenced by the +0.6 IRT and moneyline (-145 to -180) increases for the A’s — both are the highest on tonight’s slate.

Oakland has Top-5 numbers against left-handed pitching this season in nearly every advanced-metric and owns a .365 ISO over the last 14 days — the highest for any split on tonight’s slate. That’s all good news, considering Detroit’s bullpen has pitched a whopping 35 innings over the last seven days – eight more innings than any other team over that span. Look for Daniel Norris to possibly get extended a little more, and rocked in the process.

Although he’s been allowing too many baserunners lately for my liking, Frankie Montas is an absolute stud. He gets a fantastic matchup against a Tigers’ team near or dead-last in most advanced metrics against right-handed pitching. Looking at their numbers over the last 14 days in that split, it doesn’t get much better, as they own a putrid .256 wOBA and 25.4% K-rate.

The Tigers have lost the last four games by a combined deficit of 32 runs, and their last 11 losses have been by two runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland A’s: 10 – Detroit Tigers: 3 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels (1.5-run line: +124)
KC: Brad Keller – R (2-4, 4.47 ERA/1.43 WHIP)
LAA: Matt Harvey – R (1-3, 6.69 ERA/1.41 WHIP)

It was a good start to the season for Brad Keller, but things have certainly taken a turn for the worst. Keller has allowed at least five runs in three of his last four starts with the only misnomer coming against the Tigers, who are the worst hitting team in the American League.

The Angels received a +0.5 IRT increase, which is tied for second-highest on tonight’s slate. Makes sense, considering their outstanding .407 wOBA, .238 ISO and 14.7% K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Over the course of the season against righties, the Angels rank first in K-rate (15.7%), second in wRC+ (120) and fourth in wOBA (.346).

Matt Harvey has looked much better of late, allowing two runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. One of those outings came against the Royals, going seven innings and allowing two hits, three walks and one run while striking out five. KC’s offense has not been at its best of late, scoring one run or fewer four of the last five games and in five of the last seven.

Keller’s last four starts have all been Royals’ defeats by three runs or more, while the team has suffered some convincing losses already this week. Let’s take a chance here and get plus-money on our bet for this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 7 – Kansas City Royals: 3 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-128) – Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (-158)
PIT: Jordan Lyles – R (3-1, 2.09 ERA/1.09 WHIP)
SD: Joey Lucchesi – L (3-2, 4.57 ERA/1.35 WHIP)

I almost feel like we can take last night’s game preview, copy/paste and replace the pitcher’s names. Don’t worry, I won’t.

Not much changed with the Pirates and their struggles against left-handed pitching on Thursday, as they posted a total of two runs against Eric Lauer and the Padres’ bullpen. Pittsburgh faces another lefty, Joey Lucchesi, and he comes into tonight’s start in better form than Lauer did. Certain trends have already followed teams from the beginning of this season, and this one is no different for the Pirates – they just simply can’t hit lefties well.

The Padres do have the third-highest IRT (+0.4) and moneyline (-130 to -158) increases on the slate, which is interesting. They have well below-average advanced metrics against right-handed pitching and Jordan Lyles has been quite solid this season, allowing two runs or fewer in all but one of his seven starts this season.

We can look to the first five innings total of 4.5 when figuring out how this game will play out. There’s a huge -160 amount of juice on the under there, so look for the Padres to capitalize on the Pirates’ bullpen late once again. Not trying to play God here, just looking at the numbers!

* Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres: 4 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, May 9

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 50-35-4 (59%) *

[6:35 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
SEA: Mike Leake – R (2-3, 4.91 ERA/1.51 WHIP)
NYY: J.A. Happ – L (1-3, 4.93 ERA/1.28 WHIP)

The finale of a four-game set takes place in The Bronx tonight, with each of the previous three reaching at least nine runs. I feel like we’ll see more of the same in this game, as both pitchers have some major trends working against them.

Mike Leake takes the mound for the Mariners and hasn’t been his best of late, allowing 23 hits, 16 runs (12 earned) and six homers over the last 17 innings. Right-handed batters have been ripping Leake to the tune of a .373 batting average, .391 on-base percentage, .716 slugging percentage and 1.108 OPS in 69 plate appearances this season. The Yanks’ projected lineup has seven righties in it tonight, including the first six. Not to mention, Seattle’s 41 errors (most in all of MLB, nine more than the three teams tied for second-most) could certainly lead to more runs for New York.

J.A. Happ hasn’t been at his best of late either, especially at home. The lefty is 0-3 with a 7.65 ERA in four starts at Yankee Stadium, with seven homers allowed in 20 innings and an opposing .321 batting average. In comparison, Happ is 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA in three road starts, with two homers allowed in 18 1/3 innings and an opposing .194 batting average. While the Mariners’ bats haven’t been rocking and rolling like they were over the first 15 games, they still rank in the top five of most advanced metrics against left-handed pitching.

The total has gone over in 12 of the last 16 (with one push) Mariners’ games while the Yanks have done the same in 12 of the last 17.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 7 – Seattle Mariners: 5 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Texas Rangers (+144) at Houston Astros
TEX: Mike Minor – L (3-2, 2.40 ERA/0.95 WHIP)
HOU: Wade Miley – L (2-2, 3.20 ERA/1.17 WHIP)

These matchups for the Lone Star Series get kind of wild, just as we saw back in April. However, wild in tonight’s sense means a pitcher’s duel, considering these teams have been posting a lot of overs lately.

Mike Minor looks like a new man, especially of late, as he’s gone at least seven innings in five of the last six starts – he has also posted 22 strikeouts over the last 15 innings. Houston has had plenty of struggles against Minor, as he’s notched a quality start in each of the last four meetings, including seven innings of scoreless ball en route to a win back in early April. The Astros could definitely struggle with Minor once again, considering these well below-average advanced metrics they’ve had against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

I can’t believe my eyes, but Wade Miley is actually turning into a well-rounded pitcher as well. The veteran lefty has been quite serviceable with three quality starts over his last four outings – the only misnomer he was one out shy. A few of these Rangers’ bats have had more success against lefties of late, so look for Miley to be slightly less effective than Minor.

The SK Trend Confidence rating is very high on the Rangers and the total going under in this game, and I whole-heartedly agree. Minor is at the top of his game right now, while I can definitely see Miley coming back down to Earth any day now. Today, being that day now.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 5 – Houston Astros: 2 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (2-1, 3.71 ERA/1.12 WHIP)
LAD: Rich Hill – L (0-0, 3.60 ERA/1.30 WHIP)

We’ve got a nice matchup of southpaws going down at Chavez Ravine tonight. Both teams have IRTs (implied run totals) below four runs that currently moving downward as we speak. Oh yes, I’m taking the under on this one.

Patrick Corbin has seen plenty of the Dodgers from his time with the Diamondbacks and only Justin Turner (12-for-29, three doubles, two homers) and Austin Barnes (3-for-10, two homers) have given him much trouble in this matchup. Turner is rocking and rolling at the moment, but he’s only one man. I wouldn’t be too worried about Barnes and his .120 batting average against lefties this season – miss me with that.

Aside from one bad game against a heavy right-handed Cardinals’ lineup, Corbin has notched a quality start in each of his other six outings this season. Given the atrocious nature of the Nats bullpen, you have to think Corbin mans up in this game and takes it at least seven innings for his club.

Rich Hill gets a juicy matchup against a Nationals team dealing with numerous injuries to significant offensive players. Hence, a big reason why they’ve scored three runs or fewer in 11 of the last 13 games. If that wasn’t enough, Washington’s projected lineup for tonight has a 27.7% K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

While Hill will likely only pitch about five innings (six at most), the Dodgers’ bullpen owns the fourth-best SIERA and fifth-best xFIP in all of baseball over the last 14 days. Look for Los Angeles to win a close game late in this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 3 – Washington Nationals: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 7

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 46-33-3 (58.4%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (-1.5, -130) at Baltimore Orioles
BOS: Hector Rodriguez – R (0-2, 3.72 ERA)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-4, 5.34 ERA)

The defending champs had themselves a big dip in production for the series opener last night. After scoring a total of 55 runs in the previous seven games, the Red Sox managed to put up only one run against a talented young lefty in John Means on Monday night. Don’t expect that slump to last too long for Boston, especially with David Hess going for Baltimore. In fact, the current Red Sox roster has a combined .317 batting average, 1.088 OPS and six homers in 66 career plate appearances against Hess.

Boston will be going with a bullpen-by-committee game and that has been a productive unit of late, with the fifth-best SIERA (skill-interactive earned run average) and seventh-best xFIP (expected fielding-independent pitching) in baseball over the last seven days. The Orioles’ offense hasn’t been great as usual, scoring three runs or fewer in six of the last nine games.

I’m looking for the Red Sox to put one of their patented poundings on the Orioles at Camden Yards, just as they have done so many times in the past. The SK Trend Confidence has the Red Sox on the 1.5 run-line as one of its favorite plays of the night.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 9 – Baltimore Orioles: 3 *

[7:40 p.m. EST] Under 8 (-108) – Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (3-1, 3.45 ERA)
MIL: Adrian Houser – R (0-1, 8.44 ERA)

We’re seeing a lot of unders come out in recent Brewers and Nationals games of late. In fact, Brew Crew games have gone under the total in six of the last nine, while the Nats have suffered that fate in five of the last seven.

I’m banking on the Washington side of things to carry us to victory tonight, with Stephen Strasburg’s recent performances and the number of injuries piling up in the Nationals lineup. Strasburg has a 0.78 WHIP, 29 strikeouts and only three runs allowed over his last 21 2/3 innings of work and the current Brewers lineup owns a .197 lifetime batting average against him. Meanwhile, a Nats lineup that is missing Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Trea Turner and Ryan Zimmermann has now scored three runs or fewer in nine of the last 11 games.

It may not look great on the surface for the Brewers with Adrian Houser starting on the mound, but that’s just for show. Milwaukee will be going the “opener” route, opting to use the struggling Freddy Peralta at another point during the game. If needed, I’m sure Bernie the Brewer could pitch effectively tonight against this struggling Nats offense.

All in all, Strasburg should be the one dictating the low-scoring game with another dominant outing. Look for the Brewers and their combination of pitchers to get the job done as well. The SK Trend Confidence rating has the under and the Brewers moneyline as two of its favorite plays of the night.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 3 – Washington Nationals: 2 *

[8:00 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 (-110) – Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (3-0, 2.00 ERA)
CHC: Jon Lester – L (2-1, 1.73 ERA)

It’s going to be a frigid one at Wrigley Field tonight, with temperatures in the mid-40s and the wind blowing in from left-center field at 12 mph, as two talented southpaws take the mound.

Caleb Smith has quietly been putting together an All-Star-level start to the season with a 3-0 record, 2.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 45 strikeouts over 36 innings. In fact, Smith has qualified for a quality start in each of his last five outings.

Jon Lester has been simply magnificent this season, allowing two runs or fewer in all five starts – one being cut short due to a hamstring injury. Nonetheless, Lester had his best start of the season in his last outing, 35 miles away from where he grew up, tossing seven innings of one-hit shutout ball while striking out eight Mariners in Seattle. Also, the Marlins offense ranks in the bottom five of most advanced metrics overall and against left-handed pitching.

The 6.5-total, weather and an excellent duo of starting pitchers lend itself to plenty of pessimism for runs going up on the scoreboard tonight. Should be a fun game to watch, though. You know, if you hate offense.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 2 – Miami Marlins: 1 *

[8:40 p.m. EST] Under 10.5 (-120) – San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
SF: Madison Bumgarner – L (1-4, 3.92 ERA)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (2-1, 4.03 ERA)

It’s always a risky proposition to take the under at Coors Field but we’re trusting the SK Trend Confidence rating on this game, which has one of the highest grades for both teams here. And it’s interesting, considering both teams have posted a ton of overs lately – the Giants in eight of the last 10 and Rockies in nine of the last 11.

Madison Bumgarner takes the mound for San Francisco, and while his 1-4 record doesn’t look great, he does have a 1.10 WHIP and solid numbers against Colorado. In fact, MadBum posted his only win of the season against the Rockies back on April 13.

Antonio Senzatela has allowed three runs or fewer in three of his four starts this season. Even better news is that Senzatela is 5-0 with a 3.36 ERA in eight appearances (six starts) against the Giants since 2016.

We might be cutting it close here on the total, but we’re placing a ton of faith in the system this evening – and you should too.

* Final Score Prediction: Colorado Rockies: 5 – San Francisco Giants: 4 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, May 3

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 40-29-2 (58%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5, -146) at Baltimore Orioles
TB: Tyler Glasnow – R (5-0, 1.75 ERA)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-2, 6.75 ERA)

We’ve got ourselves a good ole fashioned mismatch. Tyler Glasnow of the Rays has been virtually unhittable this season, with a microscopic 0.94 WHIP and allowing two runs or fewer in each of his six starts. Glasnow got the win against these same Orioles a little more than two weeks ago, allowing seven hits and two runs while striking out three over seven innings.

The Orioles are 3-9 over their last 12 games, with all of those wins coming against the White Sox. Dan Straily takes the hill at home for Baltimore and it has not been pretty for him this season, despite pitching a limited amount of innings. A 1.66 WHIP is what Straily has coughed up over 18 2/3 innings of work (five appearances/four starts), and it doesn’t help either that the Orioles’ bullpen has the worst ERA (6.27) in all of baseball.

Tampa’s offense gets a major park upgrade going into Camden Yards and did score 17 runs at home against Baltimore in its three-game series in mid-April. It’s quite intriguing to see the Rays have the highest IRT (5.8) of any team on tonight’s slate, so look for the Rays to continue putting the hurt on Orioles’ pitching in this matchup.

Although it’s a massive amount (-146) to lay on the 1.5-run line, I feel like Vegas is already telling us how big of an ass kicking this is going to be. I have enough confidence in the Rays to win by multiple runs and not be forced to lay -230 on the moneyline. Not to mention, Tampa’s moneyline increase from -190 to -230 is the highest on the entire slate.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 8 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5, +118)
WSH: Jeremy Hellickson – R (2-0, 5.82 ERA)
PHI: Jerad Eickhoff – R (1-1, 2.12 ERA)

These injuries are starting to take a toll on the Nationals’ offense, which has scored three runs or less in six of their last seven games. Yesterday, they had a golden opportunity to put a world of hurt on a weak pitcher, Dakota Hudson of the Cardinals, and looked like a bunch of damn fools in the process – granted, they got the win (which I called), but it was not pretty. Already missing Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon, Washington was without Juan Soto yesterday for the second game in a row, and there’s no word yet on whether he’ll be in Friday’s lineup.

If Washington couldn’t lay into Hudson, tonight will seem even more difficult against Philly’s Jerad Eickhoff, who has been great since returning from injuries which caused him to miss nearly all of 2018. At Citizens Bank Park this season (vs. MIA, vs. NYM), Eickhoff has allowed only five hits, one walk and no runs while striking out 12 over 11 innings. With or without Soto, I can certainly see the Nationals struggling in any regard against the underrated righty.

One thing I really like about the Phils tonight is their leadoff hitter, Andrew McCutchen. In 19 career plate appearance against Hellickson, McCutchen is 4-for-12 with seven walks – that means he is very comfortable in the batter’s box against him. If McCutchen is getting on base, you can expect the rest of the order to follow suit. The Nationals’ bullpen also has a 5.87 ERA, which ranks second-worst in all of baseball.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 6 – Washington Nationals: 3 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers (-1.5, +120)
TOR: Trent Thornton – R (0-3, 5.08 ERA)
TEX: Mike Minor – L (3-2, 2.88 ERA)

Mike Minor has a 0.91 WHIP and is holding opposing batters to a .179 batting average. Not a good sign for the Blue Jays, who have the fourth-worst power metrics (ISO: .112) and seventh-worst weighted on-base average (wOBA: .287) against left-handed pitching this season. Minor is coming off a dazzling 13-strikeout performance over seven innings in Seattle and, in his last two home starts (vs. HOU, vs. LAA), has only allowed a combined eight hits, four walks and no runs while striking out 14 over 16 innings. Not to mention, Toronto played a very late game in Anaheim last night and will actually lose two hours of sleep time crossing two time zones into Arlington today.

Before his last outing, the Blue Jays had lost five straight games that Trent Thornton started. Tonight, he’ll have the displeasure of facing a Rangers team that is averaging 6.3 runs per game at home this season – tops in MLB.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 7 – Toronto Blue Jays: 2 *

[8:40 p.m. EST] Over 11 – Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
ARZ: Robbie Ray – L (1-1, 4.18 ERA)
COL: Tyler Anderson – L (0-2, 11.34 ERA)

The Rockies’ offense is clicking like no other at the moment, hanging 11 runs in back-to-back days at Milwaukee. In fact, Colorado has now scored at least seven runs in six of its last eight games. That’s great news for us bettors on the over, getting a hot offense against a pitcher they have clobbered historically. Robbie Ray has only won twice in 10 starts against the Rockies since 2016, and he allowed at least four runs in each of those outings. That’s actually a soft intro because Colorado has posted four runs or more in five of his last seven starts against them. The Rockies’ current roster has a combined .353 batting average, 1.095 OPS and 11 home runs in 153 plate appearances against Ray.

If that wasn’t enough, Tyler Anderson and his 11.34 ERA/2.16 WHIP take the mound for the Rockies this evening. All four of his starts have resulted in the game total reaching double-digits and, in two starts (vs. LAD, vs. WSH) at Coors Field this season, Anderson has allowed a combined 13 hits, six walks and 11 runs over seven innings.

I normally don’t condone grown men wearing baseball gloves to games, but if you’re sitting in the Coors Field outfield tonight, this might be the lone exception.

* Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks: 9 – Colorado Rockies: 8 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, May 2

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 38-28-2 (58%) *

[4:05 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (-159)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (2-1, 5.63 ERA)
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (2-1, 3.82 ERA)

The Nationals will look to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the Cardinals and luckily, Dakota Hudson and his 1.92 WHIP will be taking the mound. Hudson lucked out in his last outing by drawing the lowly Reds offense, but this time he’ll be facing a Nationals team that has plenty of power packed in this lineup, despite missing Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon.

Washington will have Stephen Strasburg on the hill, and he’s been fantastic in each of the last two outings, allowing only six hits, three walks and two runs over 15 innings while striking out 20 batters. This is why the Nats pay Stras the big bucks – to shut down losing streaks like the one they’re on now.

Even with all the turmoil going on in DC, it’s incredibly tough to sweep a team in a four-game series on the road. Look for Strasburg to have a solid outing and save his team from the ultimate embarrassment at home.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 6 – St. Louis Cardinals: 3 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (-1.5, -136) at Chicago White Sox
BOS: David Price – L (1-2, 3.60 ERA)
CHW: Lucas Giolito – R (2-1, 5.30 ERA)

Are the Red Sox fully back on track yet? I wouldn’t go that far, but they did take a big step in doing so by sweeping the A’s in a three-game series. Not to mention, the defending champs are 8-4 over the last 12 games.

David Price takes the hill for Boston, and he does look like someone who is fully back on track. He has now allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last three starts while striking out at least seven in those games. While Price doesn’t have much of a history against this Chicago roster, the lefty has held Jose Abreu in check (3-for-21, 4 Ks) over the course of his career.

Lucas Giolito will be making his first start since straining his hamstring, which led to a 10-day stint on the injured list. Surely, he could have some rust, but this is a Red Sox offense that scored 21 runs over the last three games. Not to mention, Giolito will likely be limited in his first start back, and the White Sox just played a doubleheader yesterday – the bullpen is not coming into this game at 100 percent.

Vegas has already adjusted the IRT for each side, giving the Red Sox at +0.3 increase while the White Sox got a -0.3 decrease. In addition, Boston also had its moneyline increase massively, from -156 to -205 – the largest on today’s entire MLB slate. We should have more than enough confidence to roll with the 1.5-run line at -136, as opposed to the massive -210 moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Chicago White Sox: 3 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels
TOR: Aaron Sanchez – R (3-1, 2.32 ERA)
LAA: Tyler Skaggs – L (2-2, 3.15 ERA)

I’m a big believer in Aaron Sanchez, and when he finally gets his control issues in order, we’ll be looking at a pitcher going six innings with ease. Unfortunately, the righty has issued 15 walks over his last 20 innings of work. Hence, why Sanchez has only made it out of the sixth inning in two of his six starts this season.

Aside from a rough outing at Wrigley Field, Tyler Skaggs has been solid in three of his four starts. Tonight, he’ll face a Blue Jays team that ranks third-worst in power metrics (ISO: .109) against left-handed pitching. Not to mention, the Blue Jays had a string of five straight games going under the total snapped last night, but that was because the Angels scored six runs – the Blue Jays only scored three.

I feel like both starting pitchers will keep runs off the board early and most the offense will come against the bullpens, albeit too late.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 4 – Toronto Blue Jays: 3 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, April 30

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

– MLB Season Record: 35-24-2 (59.3%)

[7:05 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5, +100)
DET: Tyson Ross – R (1-3, 4.03 ERA)
PHI: Vince Velasquez – R (1-0, 1.99 ERA)

Vince Velasquez has been outstanding to the start the season, allowing only five runs over 22 2/3 innings with a WHIP of 1.01. Tonight, he’ll take the mound against a Tigers team that has scored the fewest runs (91) in the American League – third-worst overall. Detroit also ranks fourth-worst in K-rate (26.6%) against right-handed pitching.

The value for Philly on the 1.5-run line (+100) is fantastic, compared to the -210 moneyline to win outright. There’s a noticeable difference of talent between each of these lineups, so I’m rolling with the Phils who are 11-5 at Citizens Bank Park this season.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 7 – Detroit Tigers: 3 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-120) – St. Louis Cardinals (-106) at Washington Nationals
STL: Adam Wainwright – R (2-2, 3.96 ERA)
WSH: Anibal Sanchez – R (0-3, 6.00 ERA)

Anibal Sanchez and his 1.78 WHIP run into a hot Cardinals team that has won eight of their last nine games. In fact, Sanchez has allowed at least eight baserunners in all five of his starts this season. It’s a likely scenario that St. Louis exceeds the 9.5 total all by itself, considering the Nationals also have the league’s worst bullpen.

Adam Wainwright hasn’t been terrible this season, but it’s not like he’s been immaculate either. His last outing against the Brewers inspired some hope, yet most of his better starts came against doormats like the Padres and Pirates. I’d expect Wainwright to cough up some runs, but surely not as many as Sanchez and the Nationals’ bullpen.

The IRT increased slightly for both teams, with the total jumping up a half-run to 9.5, so Vegas is liking a high-scoring game in DC tonight. Not to mention, the -120 juice on the over is quite telling, especially with it only being -102 on the under. The SK Value Pick trends also have the highest grade of the night on the Cardinals to win outright, so we’ve got a nice double-dip on our hands!

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 9 – Washington Nationals: 6 *

[9:45 p.m. EST] Under 7 (-108) – Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
LAD: Walker Buehler – R (2-0, 5.25 ERA)
SF: Drew Pomeranz – L (1-2, 3.65 ERA)

Well, I had Over 8 in this game last night and was let down big time by both squads. The Giants had baserunners on all night, but couldn’t get them around to score – they actually got all three of their runs on one swing, of course. The Dodgers had the potential for a massive sixth inning but a line drive, which would have scored two more runs, got caught and turned into a double play. Ugh, is all I have to say about that.

It’s a new day, though, as Walker Buehler takes the mound for the Dodgers. His 5.25 ERA is a bit skewed, considering the tough level of competition he’s gone against – the Reds were his easiest opponent and it’s no surprise that was his best start of the season. The Giants have MLB’s second-worst wOBA (.275) against right-handed pitching this season, so I’d expect Buehler to have a fantastic night and possibly begin a long string of quality starts in the process.

Drew Pomeranz has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his five starts this season. One of those starts was against these same Dodgers, and Pomeranz allowed two runs over five innings. The Dodgers do have the eighth-highest K-rate (26.4%) against left-handed pitching this season, so that lends some more optimism to the under in this game.

All in all, we do have two viable pitchers in one of the league’s worst parks for offense and teams with two of the lower IRTs on the slate. Not to mention, the SK Value Pick trends have a B+ grade for the under for this game. Vegas dropped the Dodgers’ IRT -0.5 quite early on today, which subsequently moved the total from 7.5 to 7.0. Defense! (clap, clap) Defense!

Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 3 – San Francisco Giants: 1 *

MLB Betting Value Plays for Friday, April 19

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

MLB Betting Value Plays

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8 – Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (1-2, 7.98 ERA)
TB: Ryne Stanek – R (0-0, 1.93 ERA)

We talked about it the other day, but these Rays’ bullpens games have become a real burden on opposing offenses over the last couple of seasons. Ryne Stanek will “start” his fifth game of the season, second this week, but only go one or two innings before handing it off the bullpen with the fourth-best ERA (3.56) in the American League.

It will be interesting, though, to see how that Tampa Bay bullpen comes back one night after losing the finale of its three-game series against Baltimore. The Rays had a bullpen game on Thursday and wound up using six different relievers in the loss. Luckily, the Red Sox offense has been uncharacteristically stagnant this week, scoring a total of eight runs over the last four games.

Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound for Boston, and he’s coming off his best start of the season. The young lefty has been roughed up in two road starts to open the 2019 campaign, but everyone is well-aware that Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL in basically Fenway Park South. Not to mention, it’s an indoor environment that pitchers absolutely love.

The key here is the Implied Run Totals (IRT) for the two teams, which have both decreased by -0.3 each. When a decrease of that magnitude happens for both sides, it’s usually a great sign for the pitchers. It’s also worth noting that each of the last four Boston games has landed under the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 4 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 8.5 – Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
CHW: Carlos Rodon – L (2-2, 3.57 ERA)
DET: Jordan Zimmermann (0-2, 4.29 ERA)

Temperatures will be in the low 40s tonight in Detroit, but the wind will be blowing out to right-center field at a whopping 19 mph during the game. I’ve got nothing but love for conditions like that and Vegas has already taken notice, jumping the IRT up for both teams (White Sox: +0.4, Tigers: +0.6) and the game total an entire run, from 7.5 to 8.5. All the trends we look for on a daily basis are right there for the taking, and we’ll do exactly that.

It also helps that the White Sox have hit Jordan Zimmermann very well of the course of time, with their current roster owning a collective .311 batting average and .896 OPS against him.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 8 – Detroit Tigers: 4 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins (+104)
WSH: Anibal Sanchez – R (0-1, 4.86 ERA)
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (1-0, 2.65 ERA)

I’m going with the upset here, even though Vegas doesn’t think that it’ll be much of one. Miami’s moneyline had an increase of +21 (+125 to +104) and Washington’s had a decrease of -23 (-135 to -112) – respectively, two of the highest shifts on tonight’s slate, in separate directions.

Caleb Smith takes the hill for the Marlins, and he has been outstanding this season against stiff NL East competition. The dazzling lefty owns a 0.88 WHIP and has yet to allow a home run at Marlins Park in 11 innings of work.

Miami hasn’t been winning a lot of games but tonight’s moneyline odds are the best it has seen all season. Usually, that’s a good sign of things to come. Not to mention, Washington’s bullpen ranks dead-last in all of MLB – more than about 1.5 runs worse than Baltimore. Yikes!

Fish for the upset!

* Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins: 4 – Washington Nationals: 1 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-1.5, -140/-225 ML) at Texas Rangers
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (2-0, 3.52 ERA)
TEX: Drew Smyly – L (0-1, 7.15 ERA)

Last, but certainly not least, Justin Verlander is up to his usual shtick. The veteran righty owns a 1.04 WHIP and 30 strikeouts over 23 innings of work. Tonight, Verlander faces a Rangers team whose current roster owns a collective .286 on-base percentage and 31.8% K-rate against him.

Drew Smyly goes for the Rangers, and he’ll have his hands full against a very heavy right-handed lineup that can rip the ball all over Globe Life Park – one of the best yards for hitters in all of MLB. The Astros just had their 10-game winning streak snapped, in which they had a run differential of +29 in that span, with five of those last six victories coming by more than one run. You do get some relief by taking them as favorites on the 1.5-run line, as opposed to laying -225 on the moneyline.

I’d look for Houston to get back on the good foot tonight, especially with the pitching matchup having such a wide gap of credibility.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 7 – Texas Rangers: 2 *