Author: Al Walsh

SpreadKnowledge NFL Free Pick of the Day – Sunday, September 15

[8:20 p.m. EST] Under 52.5 – Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons

The SpreadKnowledge NFL Free Pick of the Day comes from the total on the Eagles-Falcons game on Sunday night. We’re taking the over, considering both teams have prolific offensive attacks that’ll get us where we need to go — over the total.

Both teams got off to slow starts in Week 1, but only the Eagles were able to catch themselves before falling on their faces. The Eagles overcame a 17-0 deficit and won by the score of 32-27 over the Redskins. Meanwhile, the Falcons fell behind 28-0 to the Vikings, and eventually lost 28-12, with their two touchdowns basically meaning nothing.

Carson Wentz shook off an early slow start to rebound 313 yards and three touchdowns. That shaky open made sense, though, considering he didn’t play any snaps during the preseason. Once things got going, Wentz was able to connect with WR DeSean Jackson for eight catches, 154 yards and two touchdowns.

The Eagles had a very balanced running attack with the three RBs each toting the rock. Miles Sanders led the way with 11 carries but only notched 25 yards in the process; Darren Sproles (nine carries for 47 yards) and Jordan Howard (six carries for 44 yards) were far more successful on the ground. Running backs typically give the Falcons a ton of issues, so having this talented trio of backs certainly bodes well for them moving the chains.

In reality, both the passing and running games can do a lot here, so that balanced-offense should give over-bettors plenty of optimism in this matchup.

It took Matt Ryan and the Falcons’ offense a while to finally get some points on the board, but they did eventually in the fourth quarter. With Case Keenum posting 380 passing yards and three touchdowns, expect Atlanta’s offense to have that same type of success. Especially with more dangerous receiving options like Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, this should be a great spectacle of moving the ball through the air. Not to mention, Matty Ice has been much better historically at home in Atlanta.

In terms of running the ball, that’s probably not to be an effective way to move up and down the field. Last week, despite leading for more than half the game, the Redskins had 13 carries for 28 yards. Against the Vikings, the Falcons’ running backs didn’t have much success either, toting the rock for 49 yards on 15 carries.

Given how both teams will be moving the ball through the air, it’s only right to take the over in this one. We should have a lot more faith in Matty Ice when he’s playing at home, and that’ll have Wentz leading the Eagles down the field to match him. This should be a fun game to wrap up Sunday’s slate, and the whole country will be able to see it.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Eagles: 30 – Atlanta Falcons: 27

 

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

SpreadKnowledge NCAAF Free Pick of the Day – Saturday, September 14

[7:00 p.m. EST] Under 46 – #9 Florida Gators (-8) at Kentucky Wildcats

The SpreadKnowledge College Football Free Pick of the day comes to us from the total on the Florida-Kentucky game. We’re taking the under, as we’ll have a backup QB in this game with two ferocious defenses.

Last year, Kentucky got their first win against Florida in over three decades. Let’s not get too excited about a repeat, though, as a certain factor of personnel will likely decide this one. It’ll be a nasty SEC game, but the Gators should be just fine in Lexington.

Felipe Franks had a solid game last week, going 25-for-27 with two touchdowns en route to a 45-0 win. Granted, this week’s opponent will be much tougher, but there is plenty of motivation for Franks to do well. After all, Franks was the QB last year when Florida’s huge win streak against Kentucky ended. There’s no doubt at all that he wants to right those wrongs. Look for him to play a composed game, and the rushing attack to chew some clock up in this matchup.

The Gators’ defense will be instrumental in this game as well. They’ve got tons of playmakers in their back seven and some nasty grinders up front. When Kentucky’s run game gets shut down early, look for the pass rush to start creating some havoc.

QB Terry Wilson was injured in Kentucky’s last game and he’ll miss the rest of the season. Now, they’ll turn to Troy transfer Sawyer Smith, and you have to wonder how he’ll do with a new set of personnel in a marquee game. Florida will bring a lot of pressure his way, and that could be problematic for the new signal-caller.

Kentucky’s defense is pretty solid, and it’ll be able to keep this one close for stretches of this game. Look for this one to be a tough contest for most of the night, but Florida will get it done at the end.

* Final Score Prediction * Florida Gators: 24 – Kentucky Wildcats: 16

 

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Friday, September 13

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 7.5 – Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
LAD: Clayton Kershaw – L (13-5, 3.06 ERA/1.05 WHIP)
NYM: Noah Syndergaard – R (10-7, 4.06 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us on the total from the Dodgers-Mets game on Friday. We’re taking the over here, considering both of these marquee names starting on the mound have had some troubles of late.

It’s that time of the year, where Clayton Kershaw starts to take a dip in performance. What’s even more strange is that he’s allowed nine homers over his last 22 innings of work.

Tonight, he’ll be facing a Mets team that owns the sixth-best weighted on-base average (.342) in MLB against left-handed pitching this season. Not to mention, this will be the third of four consecutive starts where New York will be facing a lefty starter. Considering this team is in a groove against lefties, and still in the Wild Card hunt, we could certainly see Kershaw struggle once again.

Speaking of struggling, Noah Syndergaard will take the mound for the Mets. While the Dodgers haven’t been playing a ton of meaningful baseball over the last few weeks, this is a good litmus test for them as they head towards the postseason.

Syndergaard has really struggled in two of his last three starts, and the Dodgers have more than a few capable bats to put pressure on him.

All in all, 7.5 runs is not a tough number to hit at all. While there are two infamous names on the mound, the value is just not adding up for bettors to go under the total here.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Mets: 6 – Los Angeles Dodgers: 4

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Thursday, September 12

[8:10 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -130)
OAK: Homer Bailey – R (12-8, 4.87 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (18-5, 2.52 ERA/0.77 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the A’s-Astros game. We like Houston to cover the run-line in this one.

This series has been absolutely crazy, as the Astros opened with 15 runs and the A’s answered back the next night with 21. Oakland even took last night’s meeting, giving them a 5-2 record against Houston over the last seven meetings. It’s time for the Astros to take one back – in convincing fashion.

Justin Verlander has faced some weak competition of late, but he didn’t make the schedule. In fact, he’s done his job and then some, allowing four hits or less in five straight starts. Verlander has simply owned Oakland this season, posted a 2-0 record and 1.29 ERA in three starts – a span of 21 innings. Look for him to do the same tonight.

It won’t be easy for the A’s, considering they’ll be facing one of MLB’s best. Even more evident is how much they’ve struggled against him, scoring only three runs in 21 innings.

Homer Bailey has been effective in his last few outings, but his last against the Astros – not so much. In that outing, he allowed nine runs in two innings en route to an 11-1 win for Houston. While Bailey has gotten away with facing lesser teams, the Astros are certainly not one of them.

Right-handed batters are hitting .304 (compared to .220) against Bailey this season, and the Astros have plenty of them. Guys like George Springer, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman can get the party popping in no time. Look for them to hop on Bailey early and often, just as they did last time they faced him.

We’ve got plenty of narratives to foresee the Astros clubbing the A’s tonight. Look for them to get to Bailey early and often, giving Verlander more than enough run support.

* Final Score Prediction * Houston Astros: 10 – Oakland Athletics: 2

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Wednesday, September 11

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

Also, we’re happy to announce our reduced prices! The packages are now going for:

– Member + AI Boost: $90.00 to $60.00/month
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[7:05 p.m. EST] Atlanta Braves (1.5-run line: +112) at Philadelphia Phillies
ATL: Dallas Keuchel – L (7-5, 3.47 ERA/1.32 WHIP)
PHI: Zach Eflin – R (8-11, 4.31 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Braves-Phillies game on Wednesday. We’re taking Atlanta to cover the 1.5-run spread in this matchup, considering the mismatch of starting pitchers.

Dallas Keuchel has tossed five straight quality starts (all ATL wins), and this coming at the right time as the Braves head down the stretch. His only outing against the Phillies this season went well on a personal level, allowing two runs over seven innings, but the lefty did take the loss in that one.

If Keuchel does have a knock, though, it’s his performance on the road – 3-4 record/5.26 ERA in seven starts, compared to 4-1 with a 2.10 ERA in eight starts at home.

Zach Eflin has pitched well in his last three starts, albeit against lesser competition. That won’t help him tonight against a Braves team that has absolutely roped him this season for 14 hits (4 HR, .467 opposing batting average) and 17 runs (12 earned) in only 5 2/3 innings.

Eflin’s problems have mostly come against left-handed batters, and the Braves have plenty of pop from that side of the plate. In fact, lefties are crushing Eflin this season to the tune of a .529 slugging percentage and .876 OPS.

Six of the seven Braves’ wins against the Phillies have come by two runs or more, including each of the last five. Not to mention, Atlanta has won six of its last nine meetings with Philly.

* Final Score Prediction * Atlanta Braves: 6 – Philadelphia Phillies: 3

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Tuesday, September 10

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

Also, we’re happy to announce that we’re reducing prices this week before the start of NFL season. The prices on our packages are now going from:

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– Member: $30.00 to $20.00/month
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[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 10 – Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros
OAK: Tanner Roark – R (9-8, 3.86 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
HOU: Wade Miley – L (13-4, 3.35 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the A’s-Astros game. Houston absolutely clobbered Oakland by the score of 15-0 last night, taking an 11-0 lead after two innings.

Each of the last two Astros’ games has been quite silly, to say the least. The AL West leaders have now scored a total of 36 runs over the last two games, outscoring their opponents 36-1. Yikes!

While the A’s got destroyed last night, they do hit left-handed pitching well and did post a double-digit number of runs in two games late last week.
Tanner Roark has been outstanding since coming to Oakland, but fly-ball pitchers don’t tend to do well with the small dimensions at Minute Maid Park. Just as we saw last night, the Astros jumped all over a very good pitcher in Mike Fiers, and tonight’s matchup against Roark is another one they can certainly take advantage of.

Wade Miley has done a great job against the A’s this season, posting a 1.83 ERA in three meetings. However, Miley didn’t even record an out in his last start against the lowly Mariners, and that has to be a cause for concern heading into a matchup against a desperate team looking to rebound.

You can make the argument that Houston will cover 10 runs all by itself. Taking the Astros has plenty of value here, but it’s tough to fully trust Miley after that last start against the Mariners. We should have more faith in runs being scored, with a few homers being hit in the process.

* Final Score Prediction * Houston Astros: 10 – Oakland Athletics: 5

SpreadKnowledge NFL Free Pick of the Day – Monday, September 9

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

Also, we’re happy to announce that we’re reducing prices this week before the start of NFL season. The prices on our packages are now going from:

– Member + AI Boost: $90.00 to $60.00/month
– Member: $30.00 to $20.00/month
– BRAND NEW FREE PACKAGE: (find details on website)

* Use the Promo Code (SK15OFF) for an additional 15% off your subscription for the next 6 months *

 

[7:00 p.m. EST] Over 52.5 – Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints

The SpreadKnowledge NFL Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Saints-Texans game that kicks off Monday Night Football’s doubleheader. We like the total going over in this one, considering we’ve got two of the most potent offenses in football going head to head.

This will be the first time New Orleans takes the field since last season’s blown-call in the NFC Championship that prohibited them from reaching the Super Bowl. It’ll be interesting to see how they rebound from that debacle, and if it could possibly affect them in a negative way.

There are plenty of expectations for the Texans in 2019, and most of it comes from the offensive side of the ball. Houston made some exciting moves right before the regular season started, getting offensive lineman Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Kenny Stills from Miami. That move for Tunsil, in particular, was a major upgrade for an O-line that allowed quarterback Deshaun Watson to get sacked over 60 times last season.

The Saints haven’t won a Week-1 game since 2013. For whatever reason, it’s usually the defense that prohibits them from victory, and they’ll have another heavy test on their hands in this one. New Orleans will be without two of its best interior pass rushers, Sheldon Rankins (injury) and David Onyematta (suspension),

Not to mention, there’s a huge mismatch between the Texans’ wide receivers and Saints’ secondary. New Orleans ranked 22nd in DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) against the pass last season. Marcus Lattimore was toasted by marquee wide receivers last season while, more recently, Patrick Robinson had a horrendous preseason.

In the Saints last four home openers, they have allowed 48 (TB), 36 (NE), 35 (OAK) and 26 (TB) points.

Luckily, quarterback Drew Brees, running back Alvin Kamara and wide receiver Michael Thomas are still around to put points on the scoreboard. It’s not like the Saints will get blown out, but these guys always have a chance to be in games with that trio of talent moving the ball. Since 2006, the Saints have averaged 30.1 points per game at home.

* Final Score Prediction * New Orleans Saints: 30 – Houston Texans: 27

SpreadKnowledge NFL Free Pick of the Day – Sunday, September 8

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

Also, we’re happy to announce that we’re reducing prices this week before the start of NFL season. The prices on our packages are now going from:

– Member + AI Boost: $90.00 to $60.00/month
– Member: $30.00 to $20.00/month
– BRAND NEW FREE PACKAGE: (find details on website)

* Use the Promo Code (SK15OFF) for an additional 15% off your subscription for the next 6 months *

[4:25 p.m. EST] San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The SpreadKnowledge NFL Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the 49ers-Buccaneers game. We like the total going over, considering these are two high-powered offenses with coaches that like to sling the rock going up against defenses with plenty of uncertainty. That’s a big reason why the total opened at 48.5 and currently sits at 50.5.

This will be a game with great storylines as we’ll see the return of Bucs head coach Bruce Arians and 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.

Jimmy G is ready to lead the 49ers after missing nearly all of 2018 with a torn ACL. He didn’t play particularly well in the preseason, but that’s exactly what it is – preseason. Not to mention, his main target, tight end George Kittle didn’t play one snap during the preseason.

However, the Bucs’ pass defense was absolutely horrendous last season, and that’s why Todd Bowles was brought in to run things. That unit can only improve, but they do have to learn a new 3-4 system and that can certainly take them a few games.

Last season, the Bucs’ passing attack was No. 1 in the NFL and that should continue to improve with a great wealth of weapons in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard – not to mention, a coach that wants to air it out as well. The 49ers ranked dead-last in coverage grades, according to Pro Football Focus, so all of Tampa’s studs will certainly take advantage of that weakness.

We’ve outlined the struggles of these defenses coming into this season, and that’s our basis for going over the total. Not to mention, both of these teams want to throw the ball – and they will. Look for plenty of points and if you’ve got fantasy players going in this game, your outlook is very bright.

* Final Score Prediction * Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 31 – San Francisco 49ers: 27

SpreadKnowledge NCAAF Free Pick of the Day – Saturday, September 7

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

Also, we’re happy to announce that we’re reducing prices this week before the start of NFL season. The prices on our packages are now going from:

– Member + AI Boost: $90.00 to $60.00/month
– Member: $30.00 to $20.00/month
– BRAND NEW FREE PACKAGE: (find details on website)

* Use the Promo Code (SK15OFF) for an additional 15% off your subscription for the next 6 months *

 

[10:30 p.m. EST] Under 43 – #23 Stanford Cardinal at USC Trojans

The SpreadKnowledge College Football Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Stanford-USC game on Saturday. After all, both teams are missing the quarterback they started the season with, making this a game of field position – and lots of yawns.

While each program typically does a good job of recruiting, it’s all about preparation in this instance.

For Stanford, their offense already looked lost against Northwestern in the season opener. Then, their quarterback K.J. Costello had to leave the game with a concussion. Davis Mills, who the Cardinal will start tonight, filled in by 7-for-14 with 81 passing yards but the offense didn’t make any extra strides.

In fact, Stanford’s offense only managed 10 points, with their last touchdown coming in the final seconds on defense.

As for USC, their loss at quarterback could be a lot more detrimental. JT Daniels was expected to do big things for the Trojans but an ACL injury will keep him sidelined for the remainder of the season. Now, it’s up to Kedon Slovis to steer the ship from here on out in 2019.

Both defenses had their respective shining moments in the season opener, so it’s not like these quarterbacks are going to have an easy period of adjustment in this one. Look for both teams to struggle offensively, and it might even be a case of whoever gets to 20 first wins the ball game.

* Final Score Prediction * Stanford Cardinal: 20 – USC Trojans: 13

SpreadKnowledge NCAAF Free Pick of the Day – Friday, September 6

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

Also, we’re happy to announce that we’re reducing prices this week before the start of NFL season. The prices on our packages are now going from:

– Member + AI Boost: $90.00 to $60.00/month
– Member: $30.00 to $20.00/month
– BRAND NEW FREE PACKAGE: (find details on website)

* Use the Promo Code (SK15OFF) for an additional 15% off your subscription for the next 6 months *

 

[8:00 p.m. EST] Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-19.5) at Rice Owls

The SpreadKnowledge College Football Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Wake Forest-Rice game. We’re taking the Demon Deacons to cover the massive 19.5-point spread and roll to victory over the Owls.

Wake Forest came from behind late in their season-opening win against Utah State. However, tonight’s matchup against Rice won’t require as much drama, considering it’s a much less-inferior opponent.

The Demon Deacons were led by quarterback Jamie Newman, who threw for 401 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s win. Wide receiver Sage Surratt was Newman’s favorite target, hauling in seven catches for 158 yards and a touchdown, while running back Cade Carney ran for 105 yards.

Rice has lost 12 of its last 13 games dating back to last season, with 10 of them coming by two touchdowns or more. Not to mention, the Owls’ offense has been in a sputtering motion with seven games of scoring 20 points or less in their last nine.

On the other hand, Wake Forest has scored a total of 134 points in their last three games dating back to last season.

All in all, Wake Forest’s offense will prove to be too much for Rice to handle tonight. The Demon Deacons have plenty of weapons on offense, while the Owls just can’t seem to get it together on that side of the ball. When it’s all said and done this season, we’ll be looking at Rice as one of the worst teams in the country – no surprise there.

* Final Score Prediction * Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 44 – Rice Owls: 17