By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh
Alright, last week was just one bad beat after another. Or should I say, one bad error/blown save after the other. Everyone, do your thing that you do – Woosah, Goosfraba, Hakuna Matata… I ain’t gonna judge you. Let’s get the monkey off the back. After all, we’re still 16 games over .500 in this space!
* 2019 MLB Record: 78-62-4 (56%) *
[2:10 p.m. EST] Under 10 (-120) – Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox (moneyline: -114)
KC: Homer Bailey – R (4-5, 6.13 ERA/1.53 WHIP)
CHW: Ivan Nova – R (3-4, 6.96 ERA/1.77 WHIP)
Yeah, looking at those numbers above and seeing that we’re liking the under is probably making you scratch your head. I’m a bit nervous myself, but there is some good statistical analysis to bring us there. The SK Trend Confidence does have more faith in the under than any other outcome, considering 13 of the White Sox last 18 games have gone under the total, while the Royals have scored three runs or fewer in nine of their last 15 games.
For one, White Sox starter Ivan Nova really hasn’t been as bad as usual over the last few weeks. His only blowup outing came against the Blue Jays, who were seeing him for the second time in six days. Nova, despite allowing 10 hits, actually had really good stuff early on against the Astros – a few of those hits found some holes.
It’s also worth mentioning that Chicago has won four of the last five games that Nova has started. Also, our friends over at EV Analytics like him to reach over 3.5 on his K-prop for today – always a good sign.
What really helps Nova today is home plate umpire Bill Miller, who tends to favor pitchers. In fact, Miller has the third-highest K-rate (21%) and second-lowest on-base percentage (.312) of any umpires with at least 200 games under their belt. Vegas has noticed this and adjusted the total to 9.5 on some books – hopefully, you’ll get yours at 10.
The weather should help alleviate some runs as well, as the wind will be blowing in from center field at 10 mph.
All in all, I do like the White Sox to get this win with a good day from Nova.
* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 6 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *
[4:10 p.m. EST] Under 10.5 (-116) – Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox (1.5-run line: +110)
CLE: Jefry Rodriguez – R (1-4, 4.08 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
BOS: Rick Porcello – R (4-5, 4.45 ERA/1.31 WHIP)
The SK Trend Confidence rating likes the under as the most likely outcome in this game. And it makes plenty of sense, considering Indians’ games have gone under the total in 14 of their last 18 games. The Red Sox also had a weekend full of unders in three straight games against the Astros.
Rick Porcello takes the mound for Boston, and he’s been outstanding with five quality starts over the last six outings. Over that stretch, the veteran righty has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of those outings. The Red Sox offense seems to like when Porcello is on the mound, as they give him an average of 6.4 runs of support in his starts this season.
Jefry Rodriguez has allowed seven hits in three of the last four starts – in the misnomer, he gave up six. It’s interesting that the game total jumped from 9.5 to 10.5, considering how well Porcello has done of late. This leads me to believe the Red Sox will jump all over Rodriguez early and coast to victory.
In terms of value, it makes more sense to bet Boston on the 1.5-run line at +110, as opposed to -180 on the moneyline – the Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. Cleveland has lost six of its last seven games, with each of those losses coming by two runs or more.
* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Cleveland Indians: 3 *