MLB Free Pick of the Day for Monday, July 29

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 163-132-7 (55.3%) *
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[8:15 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 – Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals
TOR: Thomas Pannone – L (2-4, 6.39 ERA/1.51 WHIP)
KC: Brad Keller – R (7-9, 3.95 ERA/1.36 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Blue Jays-Royals matchup. Our system is liking the under in this game, giving it a B+ grade and the fourth most-likely outcome on tonight’s slate. Vegas already put its stamp on the game by lowering the total from 10.0 to 9.5, with both teams’ IRTs (implied run totals) dropping as well – Blue Jays: -0.3, Royals: -0.2.

Brad Keller has just been a different guy when he gets to sleep in his own bed. His 4-3 record and 3.29 ERA/1.13 WHIP/.204 opposing batting average at Kauffman Stadium are much better than the 3-6 record and 4.39 ERA/1.51 WHIP/.272 opposing batting average on the road.

Looking at the Blue Jays numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, we’ve got even more reason to be optimistic about Keller tonight. Toronto owns a .295 weighted on-base average, .140 ISO and 26% K-rate against righties in that span.

We’re not looking for Thomas Pannone to be perfect, by any means. His last two starts were against a scorching-hot Red Sox lineup, and Pannone allowed four runs in each of those outings. Most of Pannone’s appearances have come from the bullpen during his MLB career, so this new role of becoming a starter could take some getting used to.

A big thing working in Pannone’s favor tonight is that the Royals are striking out at a massive 28.2% clip against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

All in all, we’re looking for Keller and his glorious numbers at home to carry us to the under in this one. The SpreadKnowledge system also has a strong B-grade on the Royals tonight, so obviously, we’ll take them here to win too.

* Final Score Prediction * Kansas City Royals: 6 – Toronto Blue Jays: 1