MLB Free Pick of the Day for Wednesday, July 31

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 169-133-7 (56%) *
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[7:10 p.m. EST] Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: -124) at Miami Marlins
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (9-5, 2.94 ERA/1.14 WHIP)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara – R (4-9, 4.18 ERA/1.45 WHIP)

Our SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from Miami, where the Marlins will host the Twins. The play here is taking Minnesota to cover the 1.5-run line, considering the massive mismatch in starting pitchers we’ll see tonight.

Jose Berrios typically dominates teams that use a designated hitter. Now, he’ll be facing the worst offense in MLB against right-handed pitching, and there’s no DH to worry about. Over the last 21 days, Miami has dreadful .242 weighted on-base average, .151 ISO (power metric) and 31.7% K-rate numbers against right-handed pitching.

Berrios has faced some stiff competition (OAK x2, CLE x2, BOS) over the last few months, and he still hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any outing since May 18 against the Mariners – the Twins still won that game 18-4.

Sandy Alcantara will have his hands full against one of the best offenses in baseball, and it’s not looking like things will be getting any better once this game starts. The righty has allowed four runs or more in three of the last five starts and seven homers over that span – 28 2/3 innings.

The Twins advanced metrics aren’t as strong as they were earlier in the season, but they have scored at least six runs in seven of the last nine games. Can’t argue with those numbers!

All in all, we’re looking for Berrios to completely dominate the Marlins while the Twins offense gives him some breathing room early.

* Final Score Prediction * Minnesota Twins: 8 – Miami Marlins: 2