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[8:15 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 – St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (10-6, 4.01 ERA/1.57 WHIP)
KC: Brad Keller – R (7-12, 4.09 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Cardinals-Royals game, where we like the total to go under in this one. After all, 11 of the last 13 Cardinals’ games have done just that – three of the Royals’ last four have as well.
Vegas already left its mark on this game, decreasing the game total from 10.0 to 9.5 and IRTs (implied run totals) for each team – Cardinals: -0.3, Royals: -0.2. We’ve also got 8 mph winds blowing in from left-center field, which won’t help the ball carry at all.
Dakota Hudson hasn’t been at his best of late, but tonight’s opponent will give him the chance to get back on the good foot. The Royals have anemic .260 weighted on-base average and .127 ISO (power metric) numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.
While Hudson’s numbers could be better, he’s allowed three runs or fewer in 19 of his last 20 starts. It’s going deep into games which have plagued him in these last three starts. Even if Hudson can’t make past the fifth inning once again, he’ll hand it off to a Cardinals’ bullpen that owns the fifth-best ERA (3.80) in baseball this season.
Brad Keller has much better numbers at Kaufmann Stadium this season, and he’ll certainly need that trend to continue if KC will have a shot tonight.
I’m not sure if the KC offense hates Keller, but they have only given him seven runs of support over his last four starts. Whether that’s true or just dumb coincidence (it’s probably this), it still bodes well for our chances of the total going under with this trend.
All in all, we’ve got two teams that aren’t lighting up too many scoreboards. The pitchers have some decent qualities that’ll keep the score low enough until the Cardinals’ bullpen shuts this thing down once and for all.
* Final Score Prediction * St. Louis Cardinals: 4 – Kansas City Royals: 2