Tag: Chicago White Sox

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, May 24

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 77-57-4 *

We have to talk about the ridiculous amount of bad luck that has loomed over my head in MLB these last two days. Bullpens are mostly to blame for all this:

– Wednesday: Under 6.5 in WSH/NYM game – Nats up 1-0 going into the eighth, Mets win 6-1
– Wednesday: Under 7.5 in ATL/SF game – Ronald Acuna strikes out but a passed ball continues the inning and leads to five more ATL runs, Braves win 9-2
– Thursday: WSH moneyline vs NYM – Nats up 4-3 going into the eighth, Mets win 6-4
– Thursday: Under 9 in NYY/BAL – Yanks up 5-2 going into the eighth, Yanks win 6-5
– Thursday: DET (1.5-run line) vs MIA – Tigers up 2-0 going into the ninth, Marlins win 5-2

Must have pissed someone off upstairs! OK, back to the drawing board…

[7:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at New York Mets (1.5-run line: -134)
DET: Gregory Soto – L (0-2, 10.80 ERA/2.20 WHIP)
NYM: Noah Syndergaard – R (3-4, 4.50 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

Aside from a rough outing in San Diego, Noah Syndergaard has been much better with three quality starts over his last four games. Tonight, he’ll get a matchup against a Tigers team that ranks second-worst in nearly every advanced metric against right-handed pitching. Syndergaard has been outstanding at Citi Field over the course of his career, compiling a 24-12 record and 2.75 ERA in 49 starts.

Detroit has been swept in three straight series, including the last one to Miami – the team with the fewest wins in the National League. The Tigers’ offense has been brutal, sporting .232 wOBA and .102 ISO numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days, to go along with a 26.8% K-rate.

It also doesn’t help an anemic set of bats that the wind will be blowing in from left field at about 13 mph tonight in Citi Field.

We saw the Mets roll out an all-right-handed lineup in yesterday’s game, and that’ll play well against Tigers’ left-handed starter Gregory Soto and his horrific set of numbers. Soto has been especially bad against right-handed batters, allowing a .361 batting average, .405 on-base percentage and 1.099 OPS in 40 plate appearances. That inward-wind will likely affect the Mets’ offense in some capacity, but I do think they string together a few runs early against Soto that’ll carry them to victory.

The Mets are coming off a four-game sweep of the Nationals, while the Tigers have lost nine consecutive games, eight of them coming by two runs or more. Let’s go with the -134 odds on the 1.5-run line here, as opposed to the -290 odds that are on the moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 6 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: -104)
CHW: Reynaldo Lopez – R (3-4, 5.14 ERA/1.50 WHIP)
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (6-2, 3.39 ERA/1.13 WHIP)

The last start for Jose Berrios at Target Field was an absolute disaster, allowing 12 hits, five runs and two homers over 5 2/3 innings. But that’s just simply one of the biggest misnomers of all time – he’s still 22-6 at home since 2017.

Berrios has thrived in this matchup against the White Sox too, considering his best pitch (the curveball) is one that they struggle mightily against. Over his career, Berrios has gone 7-1 with a 2.12 ERA in nine starts against Chicago.

Reynaldo Lopez has been much better of late, but he’ll be running into the hottest offense in baseball. Yesterday in Anaheim, the Twins homered eight times – marking the second time they’ve done that this season. Minnesota already has 98 dingers through 49 games, tying them for the second-most through a team’s first 50 games in MLB history.

I’m not ready to say that Lopez has officially turned the corner yet because mostly all of his solid outings this season have come against subpar competition. Newsflash: the Twins are not subpar competition. In fact, Minnesota has scored at least seven runs in six of its last eight games!

It’s quite interesting that the White Sox took those final two games of the four-game series down in Houston. However, it’s time for them to come back down to Earth against Target Field Berrios! Let’s take the -104 odds on the 1.5-run line and skip the -196 odds that stand on the moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 7 – Chicago White Sox: 1 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Over 10 (-104) – Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals
ATL: Mike Foltynewicz – R (0-3, 6.91 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
STL: Miles Mikolas – R (4-4, 4.88 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

Mike Foltynewicz had his best outing of the season last time out against the Brewers, but he did get beat over the head by these same Cardinals 10 days ago. St. Louis hung eight runs on the veteran righty, including three long-balls, en route to a football-like 14-3 score. Prior to Sunday’s outing, the opposition scored at least nine runs in all four of Folty’s starts.

A lot of these Cardinals’ hitters have done well when facing Foltynewicz, as the current roster has a combined .918 lifetime OPS against him. Not to mention, the Red Birds have a right-handed heavy lineup and Folty is getting bulldozed by righties so far this season to the tune of a .327 batting average, .727 slugging percentage and 1.111 OPS.

Miles Mikolas had just the opposite of Folty in his last outing, getting walloped for nine hits and seven runs over 1 1/3 innings at Texas. Mikolas isn’t the type of pitcher that fools many hitters – he’ll rely more on power and precision. When looking at this matchup against the Braves, it doesn’t seem like that type of game plan will work most of the night.

It was quite telling to see a 9.5-run total set to open this game at Busch Stadium, which isn’t necessarily a hitter’s park. However, the 9.5-run total has since jumped up to 10, with the implied run totals increasing slightly for each team – Cardinals: +0.3, Braves: +0.1. The Red Birds’ 5.6 IRT is the second-highest team total on tonight’s slate, only behind the Rockies, who will be facing the Orioles at Coors Field.

The weather should play a big part here as well. It’ll be an uncharacteristically warm evening in St. Louis, which should help the ball flight. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper-80s for the first pitch of this game, with the wind blowing out to left field at about 10 mph.

All in all, most of the runs will likely come from the Cardinals’ side of things, but don’t be surprised to see the Braves bring something to the table as well.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 8 – Atlanta Braves: 6 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 22

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 74-51-4 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10 (-118) – New York Yankees (1.5-run line -168) at Baltimore Orioles
NYY: CC Sabathia – L (2-1, 2.97 ERA/1.21 WHIP)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-3, 8.51 ERA/1.89 WHIP)

Once again, the top SK Trend Confidence rating is the over in the Orioles-Yankees game. And it’s not hard to see why, with Dan Straily taking the mound for Baltimore. The veteran righty has gotten lit up all season, especially at Camden Yards, allowing nine homers and a 2.35 WHIP over 18 1/3 innings. Straily has allowed a total 15 runs over his last 12 innings of work and the opposition has scored at least seven runs in each of his last four starts.

The Yankees’ offense is rolling, with a double-digit run output in each of their last three games. Much like last night, the best value is going with the over, considering the Yanks’ crazy moneyline (-235), but I don’t mind taking them on the 1.5-run line (-166). Whenever we see so much juice on that 1.5-run line, it almost always tends to win.

CC Sabathia has been on top of his game this season, but if there is a knock on him, it’s the 4.70 ERA and .237 opposing average he’s allowed on the road. The Orioles have hit their fair share of homers against the Yanks this season, but it’s not much of a surprise, considering both teams play in extreme hitter’s parks.

Look for the Yanks to continue adding on to the hurt Straily’s been feeling at Camden Yards this season. But, of course, we’re also looking for the Orioles to chip in a few as well on the total.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 10 – Baltimore Orioles: 4 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 (-114) – Washington Nationals at New York Mets
WSH: Max Scherzer – R (2-5, 3.72 ERA/1.19 WHIP)
NYM: Jacob deGrom – R (3-5, 3.98 ERA/1.17 WHIP)

Sure, both guys haven’t been at the top of their games for most of this season. However, the history of each pitcher against the opposition is just too good to pass up and the SK Trend Confidence rating is high on the total going under.

Max Scherzer will certainly be determined to take down the reigning Cy Young award winner and his squad. The Mets’ current roster has a combined .165 batting average, .219 on-base percentage and 38% K-rate against him lifetime. Although Scherzer has thrown a quality start in six of the last seven outings, it’s amazing to believe that the Nationals are only 2-8 in his 10 starts this season.

Jacob deGrom got absolutely waxed in his last start, which came against the lowly Marlins. We can call that bad luck or just a case of Miami having a good history against deGrom, but I’ll be willing to overlook that. Main reason – the Nationals’ current roster has a combined .175 batting average, .212 on-base percentage and 34.5% K-rate against deGrom.

Given the history of these pitchers against each team, we won’t see much scoring in this game. I’ll give the Mets the final advantage with the better bullpen and this odd trend of the Nationals losing the majority of Scherzer’s starts.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 3 – Washington Nationals: 2 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 8.5 (-106) – Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -166)
CHW: Ivan Nova – R (2-4, 7.42 ERA/1.80 WHIP)
HOU: Gerrit Cole – R (4-4, 3.56 ERA/1.04 WHIP)

Ivan Nova has been absolutely ripped to shreds this season, so it’s not a good sign for him to be facing an Astros team that ranks at, or near, the top of every advanced metric against right-handed pitching. While the veteran righty has allowed at least eight baserunners in each one of his nine starts this season, teams like the Blue Jays and Indians weren’t able to capitalize with runs – don’t expect Nova to be so lucky tonight against the Astros.

Gerrit Cole has only allowed one run over his last four starts, and I would expect that to continue today against a White Sox team that has scored two runs or fewer in four of the last six games. It’s interesting to note, a James McCann and Yonder Alonso have a decent history against Cole, so maybe they can step into one and help us out with the total.

With all that information on today’s starting pitchers and opposing offenses, we should fully expect the Astros to beat Nova over the head and the cover the total as well. With a little luck on our side, maybe (JUST MAYBE!) the White Sox can add a run or two.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 9 – Chicago White Sox: 2 *

[9:45 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-116) – Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants
ATL: Max Fried – L (6-2, 2.86 ERA/1.13 WHIP)
SF: Jeff Samardzija – R (2-2, 3.69 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

We’ve got a heavy trend of totals going under with both sides and they’ll be playing in one of the worst parks in baseball for offense. What a perfect match.

Jeff Samardzija gets a difficult matchup against the Braves, but he has been much better at Oracle Park this season, posting a 2.61 ERA and allowing an opposing batting average of .211. Atlanta’s offense has been somewhat neutralized since coming to San Francisco and its last four games have actually gone under the total. That also makes eight of the last 12 for the Braves that have suffered the same fate.

The key to the under tonight is the California kid, Max Fried, and his matchup against a Giants team that usually always struggles on offense. San Francisco games have gone under the total in three straight and in five of the last six. Fried is coming off one of his best outings of the season, throwing six innings of shutout ball while allowing two hits, two walks and striking out five.

All in all, the ballpark is going to help us more than anything, but the two pitchers certainly help the situation. Look for Atlanta to get the win, with Fried pitching a solid game.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 4 – San Francisco Giants: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 8

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 48-34-3 (58.5%) *

[6:10 p.m. EST] Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (-1.5, +108)
CHW: Reynaldo Lopez – R (2-4, 6.69 ERA/1.76 WHIP)
CLE: Shane Bieber – R (2-1, 3.16 ERA/1.03 WHIP)

OK, enough is enough already with these White Sox taking games against the Indians. Chicago got the first two games of this series and now trot out Reynaldo Lopez and his 1.76 WHIP, which ranks second-worst of any starting pitcher in baseball with at least 30 innings under his belt. If Cleveland ever had a pitcher to break out of its recent offensive funk, Lopez is certainly the guy to help out.

The Tribe is rolling out Shane Bieber, who has notched a quality start in five of his last six outings. While the White Sox did hang nine runs on Monday night against Trevor Bauer, they have scored two runs or fewer in four of the last five games.

Call this revenge, call this a team that’s due – call it what you will. The Indians are going to make up for their recent misfortunes in a big way today.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 6 – Chicago White Sox: 2 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (-1.5, -166) at Baltimore Orioles
BOS: Chris Sale – L (5.25 ERA/1.28 WHIP)
BAL: Andrew Cashner – R (4.71 ERA/1.46 WHIP)

The Red Sox have the highest moneyline increase (-245 to -281) on the slate and massive -166 odds on the 1.5 run-line. Needless to say, things are shaping up nicely for the defending champs on the road tonight.

Chris Sale is coming off his best outing of the season – no coincidence that it came against his former team – as he pitched six innings of scoreless ball with 10 strikeouts. The lanky lefty is 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA in seven starts against the Orioles since he joined the Red Sox. Not to mention, Baltimore has the lowest IRT (3.1) on the slate and have struck out at a zaftig 27.3% clip against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Andrew Cashner takes the mound for Bird Gang, and he’s been prone to have a surprisingly good outing every now and again. Luckily, his outings don’t last too long, with only two of his seven starts going for six innings or more. That’s good news, considering the Orioles bullpen has the worst ERA (6.13) in the American League and second-worst in all of baseball.

I expect the Red Sox to get off to a slow start offensively and then finally hammer this thing home late, with Sale, of course, keeping the Orioles off the scoreboard for most of the night. The SK Trend Confidence for the Red Sox on the 1.5 run-line is one of the highest on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros (-1.5, -110)
KC: Jorge Lopez – R (0-3, 5.09 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
HOU: Brad Peacock – R (2-2, 5.28 ERA/1.21 WHIP)

The Astros got rolled up and smoked in front of their home fans last night, so I’d expect them to come out with a focused mindset this evening. Houston ranks in the top five of MLB in nearly every advanced metric against right-handed pitching, so there’s no surprise that its 5.7 IRT is the highest on tonight’s slate.

Royals pitcher Jorge Lopez hasn’t fared well of late, allowing four runs in each of his last four starts. If that wasn’t bad enough, Kansas City has lost six of his seven starts this season.

Brad Peacock takes the mound for Houston, and he just simply hasn’t been at his best this season, as was evident in that last start against the Twins. While we don’t look at the Royals as a powerhouse offense, they’re a pesky bunch that gets the job done in a variety of ways. Hell, they did just post 12 runs last night.

I feel like the Astros on the 1.5 run-line is a solid play, but the over is what really grabs my attention.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 7 – Kansas City Royals: 5 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, May 6

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 45-32-3 (58.4%) *

[6:10 p.m. EST] Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (-1.5, -130)
CHW: Ivan Nova – R (0-3, 8.33 ERA)
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (4-1, 2.45 ERA)

It’s been a rough start to 2019 for Ivan Nova, to say the least, allowing 48 hits and 29 runs over 31 1/3 innings. Things won’t be getting any easier as he’ll face the Indians, who have absolutely destroyed Nova lifetime. In fact, the Tribe’s current roster owns a combined .379 batting average, .446 on-base percentage and 1.082 OPS against him in 73 career plate appearances.

Trevor Bauer has suddenly become somewhat of a generous pitcher, allowing 10 walks over his last 15 innings of work. Luckily, he has handled this White Sox with relative ease since 2016, going 5-2 with a 3.03 ERA in 10 outings. Not to mention, the current Pale Hose roster owns a combined .192 batting average, .242 on-base percentage and 32.6% K-rate in 175 career plate appearances against Bauer.

Because of the history with these two starting pitchers against their respective opponents, bettors will get much more value on the Indians with the 1.5 run-line at -130, as opposed to the -250 moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 7 – Chicago White Sox: 3 *

[7:07 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-122) – Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
MIN: Martin Perez – L (4-0, 3.41 ERA)
TOR: Marcus Stroman – R (1-4, 2.20 ERA)

Both of these starting pitchers have had great success this season, despite the traditional numbers not looking all that glamorous. Success, of course, meaning keeping opposing runs off the scoreboard.

In fact, Martin Perez has allowed one run or fewer in three of his last four outings, while Stroman has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his seven starts this season. Stroman’s only misnomer came in his last outing at Anaheim, but he’s a crafty veteran that rarely has two bad outings in a row. Perez should benefit from facing a Blue Jays team that ranks in the bottom five of most advanced metrics against left-handed pitching.

Also helping the under this game is the fact that Toronto has scored three runs or fewer in five of its last six games.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 4 – Minnesota Twins: 3*

[8:05 p.m. EST] Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs (-1.5, -120)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara – R (1-3, 4.86 ERA)
CHC: Cole Hamels – L (3-0, 3.19 ERA)

The Cubs just completed a three-game sweep over the rival Cardinals, so that brings their winning streak to seven games, and they are now 16-4 over their last 20. It shouldn’t be too hard for Chicago to continue their dominant run, facing a Miami team that has scored three runs or fewer in 18 of its last 23 games.

Cole Hamels takes the ball for the Cubbies and he’ll go up against a Marlins team that ranks in the bottom five of most advanced metrics against left-handed pitching. The former World Series MVP has been his usual dominant self, with a 1.09 WHIP, and that’s even going against tough competition like the Brewers, Dodgers, Mariners and Rangers. One of those starts, though, was versus this stagnant Miami offense and Hamels pitched seven innings of shutout ball to get the win back on April 17.

Bettors should feel quite confident going with the Cubs on the 1.5 run-line, considering Hamels has managed to get an average of eight runs of support in his six starts this season. Although the game total sits at seven, I expect Chicago to post all the runs on the scoreboard tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 5 – Miami Marlins: 0 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, May 2

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 38-28-2 (58%) *

[4:05 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (-159)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (2-1, 5.63 ERA)
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (2-1, 3.82 ERA)

The Nationals will look to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the Cardinals and luckily, Dakota Hudson and his 1.92 WHIP will be taking the mound. Hudson lucked out in his last outing by drawing the lowly Reds offense, but this time he’ll be facing a Nationals team that has plenty of power packed in this lineup, despite missing Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon.

Washington will have Stephen Strasburg on the hill, and he’s been fantastic in each of the last two outings, allowing only six hits, three walks and two runs over 15 innings while striking out 20 batters. This is why the Nats pay Stras the big bucks – to shut down losing streaks like the one they’re on now.

Even with all the turmoil going on in DC, it’s incredibly tough to sweep a team in a four-game series on the road. Look for Strasburg to have a solid outing and save his team from the ultimate embarrassment at home.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 6 – St. Louis Cardinals: 3 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (-1.5, -136) at Chicago White Sox
BOS: David Price – L (1-2, 3.60 ERA)
CHW: Lucas Giolito – R (2-1, 5.30 ERA)

Are the Red Sox fully back on track yet? I wouldn’t go that far, but they did take a big step in doing so by sweeping the A’s in a three-game series. Not to mention, the defending champs are 8-4 over the last 12 games.

David Price takes the hill for Boston, and he does look like someone who is fully back on track. He has now allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last three starts while striking out at least seven in those games. While Price doesn’t have much of a history against this Chicago roster, the lefty has held Jose Abreu in check (3-for-21, 4 Ks) over the course of his career.

Lucas Giolito will be making his first start since straining his hamstring, which led to a 10-day stint on the injured list. Surely, he could have some rust, but this is a Red Sox offense that scored 21 runs over the last three games. Not to mention, Giolito will likely be limited in his first start back, and the White Sox just played a doubleheader yesterday – the bullpen is not coming into this game at 100 percent.

Vegas has already adjusted the IRT for each side, giving the Red Sox at +0.3 increase while the White Sox got a -0.3 decrease. In addition, Boston also had its moneyline increase massively, from -156 to -205 – the largest on today’s entire MLB slate. We should have more than enough confidence to roll with the 1.5-run line at -136, as opposed to the massive -210 moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Chicago White Sox: 3 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels
TOR: Aaron Sanchez – R (3-1, 2.32 ERA)
LAA: Tyler Skaggs – L (2-2, 3.15 ERA)

I’m a big believer in Aaron Sanchez, and when he finally gets his control issues in order, we’ll be looking at a pitcher going six innings with ease. Unfortunately, the righty has issued 15 walks over his last 20 innings of work. Hence, why Sanchez has only made it out of the sixth inning in two of his six starts this season.

Aside from a rough outing at Wrigley Field, Tyler Skaggs has been solid in three of his four starts. Tonight, he’ll face a Blue Jays team that ranks third-worst in power metrics (ISO: .109) against left-handed pitching. Not to mention, the Blue Jays had a string of five straight games going under the total snapped last night, but that was because the Angels scored six runs – the Blue Jays only scored three.

I feel like both starting pitchers will keep runs off the board early and most the offense will come against the bullpens, albeit too late.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 4 – Toronto Blue Jays: 3 *

MLB Betting Value Plays for Friday, April 19

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

MLB Betting Value Plays

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8 – Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (1-2, 7.98 ERA)
TB: Ryne Stanek – R (0-0, 1.93 ERA)

We talked about it the other day, but these Rays’ bullpens games have become a real burden on opposing offenses over the last couple of seasons. Ryne Stanek will “start” his fifth game of the season, second this week, but only go one or two innings before handing it off the bullpen with the fourth-best ERA (3.56) in the American League.

It will be interesting, though, to see how that Tampa Bay bullpen comes back one night after losing the finale of its three-game series against Baltimore. The Rays had a bullpen game on Thursday and wound up using six different relievers in the loss. Luckily, the Red Sox offense has been uncharacteristically stagnant this week, scoring a total of eight runs over the last four games.

Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound for Boston, and he’s coming off his best start of the season. The young lefty has been roughed up in two road starts to open the 2019 campaign, but everyone is well-aware that Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL in basically Fenway Park South. Not to mention, it’s an indoor environment that pitchers absolutely love.

The key here is the Implied Run Totals (IRT) for the two teams, which have both decreased by -0.3 each. When a decrease of that magnitude happens for both sides, it’s usually a great sign for the pitchers. It’s also worth noting that each of the last four Boston games has landed under the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 4 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 8.5 – Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
CHW: Carlos Rodon – L (2-2, 3.57 ERA)
DET: Jordan Zimmermann (0-2, 4.29 ERA)

Temperatures will be in the low 40s tonight in Detroit, but the wind will be blowing out to right-center field at a whopping 19 mph during the game. I’ve got nothing but love for conditions like that and Vegas has already taken notice, jumping the IRT up for both teams (White Sox: +0.4, Tigers: +0.6) and the game total an entire run, from 7.5 to 8.5. All the trends we look for on a daily basis are right there for the taking, and we’ll do exactly that.

It also helps that the White Sox have hit Jordan Zimmermann very well of the course of time, with their current roster owning a collective .311 batting average and .896 OPS against him.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 8 – Detroit Tigers: 4 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins (+104)
WSH: Anibal Sanchez – R (0-1, 4.86 ERA)
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (1-0, 2.65 ERA)

I’m going with the upset here, even though Vegas doesn’t think that it’ll be much of one. Miami’s moneyline had an increase of +21 (+125 to +104) and Washington’s had a decrease of -23 (-135 to -112) – respectively, two of the highest shifts on tonight’s slate, in separate directions.

Caleb Smith takes the hill for the Marlins, and he has been outstanding this season against stiff NL East competition. The dazzling lefty owns a 0.88 WHIP and has yet to allow a home run at Marlins Park in 11 innings of work.

Miami hasn’t been winning a lot of games but tonight’s moneyline odds are the best it has seen all season. Usually, that’s a good sign of things to come. Not to mention, Washington’s bullpen ranks dead-last in all of MLB – more than about 1.5 runs worse than Baltimore. Yikes!

Fish for the upset!

* Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins: 4 – Washington Nationals: 1 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-1.5, -140/-225 ML) at Texas Rangers
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (2-0, 3.52 ERA)
TEX: Drew Smyly – L (0-1, 7.15 ERA)

Last, but certainly not least, Justin Verlander is up to his usual shtick. The veteran righty owns a 1.04 WHIP and 30 strikeouts over 23 innings of work. Tonight, Verlander faces a Rangers team whose current roster owns a collective .286 on-base percentage and 31.8% K-rate against him.

Drew Smyly goes for the Rangers, and he’ll have his hands full against a very heavy right-handed lineup that can rip the ball all over Globe Life Park – one of the best yards for hitters in all of MLB. The Astros just had their 10-game winning streak snapped, in which they had a run differential of +29 in that span, with five of those last six victories coming by more than one run. You do get some relief by taking them as favorites on the 1.5-run line, as opposed to laying -225 on the moneyline.

I’d look for Houston to get back on the good foot tonight, especially with the pitching matchup having such a wide gap of credibility.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 7 – Texas Rangers: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, April 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[7:40 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 –  St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (-130)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (0-1, 2.79 ERA)
MIL: Freddy Peralta – R (1-0, 6.91 ERA)

This will be the Redbirds’ second trip to Milwaukee already this season, and it didn’t go too well for them the first time around. The Brewers ended up winning three of the four games in that series and our Trend Confidence rating has them as the most likely team to win on the MLB slate tonight. Not to mention, the over in this game is the strongest overall play that we have on the board.

Dakota Hudson takes the hill for St. Louis, and he has put a ton of guys on base in each of his two starts this season. That’s just not a recipe for success against a Milwaukee lineup that has talent up and down the order. The Brewers are finally back home (where they are 5-2) after a tough, but short, West coast trip against the Angels and Dodgers. Look for the Brew Crew to take advantage of those extra baserunners and give Hudson more headaches.

Freddy Peralta will be starting for Milwaukee, and he has been equally as bad as Hudson. In fact, Peralta only lasted three innings in his season debut against these same Cardinals, allowing six hits, three walks and four runs.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 8 – St. Louis Cardinals: 6 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
KC: Heath Fillmyer – R (0-0, 15.00 ERA)
CHW: Ervin Santana – R (0-1, 17.18 ERA)

Yes, those ERAs you see above are correct — that’s a combined 32.18 between the two of them. Yikes!

I’m going with the over in this game, considering the White Sox have hit that mark in 10 of their 14 games this season, while the Royals have done the same in 11 of their 15 games. That, coupled with the fact that both pitchers are struggling out of the gate, makes this a good night to see plenty of runs crossing the plate.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 9 – Kansas City Royals: 8 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Cincinnati Reds (+146) at Los Angeles Dodgers
CIN: Luis Castillo – R (1-1, 0.92 ERA)
LAD: Clayton Kershaw – L (season debut)

Very, very interesting matchup at Chavez Ravine as Clayton Kershaw will make his season debut against a very talented pitcher in Luis Castillo. I’m taking the upset here and rolling with the Reds, who have a few guys making a homecoming of sorts. Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig should be ultra-motivated after getting shipped from beautiful Los Angeles to… well, Cincinnati. Be honest, you’d be upset too.

It’s quite interesting that the Dodgers don’t have a higher moneyline number, especially with Kershaw toeing the rubber. Granted, it’ll be his first start of the season, but this is just too noticeable of a number for me not to land on. Castillo has been fantastic early on with 25 strikeouts and only two runs allowed over 19 2/3 innings. A lot of people around baseball might not be too familiar with Castillo, but they certainly will be when the night is over.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 3 – Los Angeles Dodgers: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, April 10 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[1:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (1-0, 0.64 ERA)
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (0-1, 3.18 ERA)

Trevor Bauer has been absolutely dominant to open the season, allowing only one hit over 14 innings while striking out 17 batters. The outspoken righty did allow six walks in his last start, but this is a guy that has proven to be one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last couple of seasons – he’ll get those mishaps under control. Bauer went 4-0 with a 1.23 ERA against the Tigers last season, striking out 40 batters over the course of 29 1/3 innings.

Matthew Boyd has looked fantastic as well, notching double-digit strikeouts in each of his last two starts. The southpaw has yet to get a win, and it’ll certainly be difficult to do so against Bauer. However, only one Indians’ player, Francisco Lindor, has crushed Boyd much… and he’s on the Injured List.

Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-40s today at Comerica Park, so I wouldn’t expect the ball to be flying out of the yard. The Tigers rank dead-last in all of MLB with 29 runs, while the Indians aren’t too far behind with 38. Not to mention, both team’s bullpen rank in the Top-10 of ERA – Indians: 5th (2.63), Tigers: 7th (2.81). More than enough trends are lining up to take the under in this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 4 – Detroit Tigers: 1 *

[2:10 p.m. EST] Tampa Bay Rays (-150) at Chicago White Sox – Total: 8
TB: Tyler Glasnow – R (2-0, 0.82 ERA)
CHW: Reynaldo Lopez – R (0-1, 10.00 ERA)

Tyler Glasnow has been an absolute stud for Tampa Bay early on, allowing one run over his first two starts. One thing I’ll always mention about the Rays is their bullpen, which ranks second in all of MLB with a 2.05 ERA. And that’s important, considering Glasnow will probably max out at six innings this early in the season.

On the flip side, the White Sox bullpen ranks 25th with a 6.61 ERA, and that’s important because we’ll probably see a lot of them today. Reynaldo Lopez has gotten ripped in each of his last two starts, and the Rays can make life difficult for him by piecing together their patented small-ball way of life.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 8 – Chicago White Sox: 2 *

MLB Betting Preview for Saturday, April 6 (Afternoon Games)

By Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[1:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at New York Mets  – Total: 7
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (0-0, 3.00 ERA)
NYM: Steven Matz – L (0-0, 1.69 ERA)

The total of seven is quite interesting in this game, as both pitchers haven’t had too much success against each of these teams. Matz is 1-5 with a 3.93 ERA in 10 career starts against the Nationals, while Corbin is 1-4 with a 4.86 ERA in nine starts (10 appearances) against the Mets. Not to mention, both teams had a day of rest yesterday, while the Mets’ bullpen has a 5.21 ERA this season and the Nats’ bullpen has an MLB-worst 10.38 ERA.

It should be no surprise that I’m rolling with the over in this game…

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 5 – New York Mets: 4

[2:05 p.m. EST] Minnesota Twins at Philadelphia Phillies (-150) – Total: 8
MIN: Michael Pineda – R (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (1-0, 1.50 ERA)

Arrieta struggled with some control issues in his season debut but still managed to wiggle out by giving up only one run. It’s the offense behind him, though, that makes the Phillies such an appealing bet. After all, they have scored at least eight runs in all but one of their six games this season.

Those bats will need to be sharp today against Pineda, who is a very talented pitcher but also has a tight leash as he eases his way back to a normal workload after missing nearly a year and a half.

All in all, the Phils are a more talented team and should take over late when these teams end up going to their respective bullpens.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – Minnesota Twins: 3

[2:10 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners (-110) at Chicago White Sox – Total: 8.5
SEA: Mike Leake – R (1-0, 3.00 ERA)
CHW: Lucas Giolito – R (1-0, 2.70 ERA)

In yesterday’s preview for this matchup, I mentioned the White Sox defense could be in serious trouble with eight errors (fourth-worst in MLB) over five games. Well, it ended up being the Mariners’ defense that cost their team the loss, with three errors, now totaling an MLB-worst 16 of them in nine games.

So, two teams that have been terrible on defense… what could go wrong? Everything, and that’s why I’m going with the over once again in this matchup. Six of Seattle’s nine games have gone over the total, while five of Chicago’s six games have done the same. Not to mention, a few of these White Sox hitters have hit Leake well when they’ve seen him.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 7 – Seattle Mariners: 5

MLB Betting Preview for Friday, April 5 (Afternoon Games)

[2:10 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners (-130) at Chicago White Sox – Total: 8
SEA: Yusei Kikuchi – L (0-0, 2.53 ERA)
CHW: Reynaldo Lopez – R (0-1, 9.00 ERA)

The Seattle Mariners and Chicago White Sox are two teams heading in opposite directions to start the 2019 campaign. Seattle has been absolutely raking, scoring 56 runs over the first eight games this season. On the other hand, Chicago cannot seem to get out of its own way, committing eight errors over the first five games.

To me, this one is simple, as the Mariners and their offensive ways should be able to put plenty of pressure on the White Sox defense and continue their suffering. Not to mention, Mariners’ starter Yusei Kikuchi is legit, and there’s not much tape on him. Expect the White Sox offense to struggle quite a bit seeing him for the first time in regular season action.

Seattle moneyline is the play here…

* Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners: 9 – Chicago White Sox: 3

[4:10 p.m. EST] Los Angeles Dodgers (-129) at Colorado Rockies – Total: 10.5
LAD: Kenta Maeda – R (1-0, 4.05 ERA)
COL: Tyler Anderson – L (0-1, 9.00 ERA)

Speaking of offenses that are clicking, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been rockin’ and rolling with 55 runs scored through the first seven games – unsurprisingly, Dodgers’ games have gone over the total in six of those seven. Justin Turner is 13-for-28 with four extra-base hits (1 HR) against today’s Colorado Rockies’ starter Tyler Anderson, so hopefully, his scouting report will give an upper-hand advantage to the rest of his Dodgers’ teammates — not that they really need it nowadays.

After posting six runs in each of their first two games, the Rockies have only scored five runs in their last five. We can attribute that to some very solid pitching performances from the opposition and possibly being out of that Rocky Mountain environment for too long. Well, now the Rockies are heading back to the high altitude where the team is much more comfortable. If Colorado can get Kenta Maeda out of the game early, its offense can take advantage of a Dodgers bullpen that has not been great early on, allowing the fourth-most runs in MLB so far this season.

Typically, offenses don’t bode well at Coors Field in the first month of the season, but today’s environment should play more like a game in May or June. Temperatures are expected to be damn-near perfect in the upper 60s for baseball today in Denver.

Over 10.5 is the play here, with the Dodgers swinging hot bats and the Rockies coming back to Denver for some home cooking on the offensive end…

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 8 – Colorado Rockies: 7

[4:15 p.m. EST] San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals – Total: 7.5
SD: Nick Margevicius (0-1, 1.80 ERA)
STL: Jack Flaherty – R (0-0. 8.31 ERA)

St. Louis Cardinals’ starter Jack Flaherty has a very bright future ahead of him, but proving that in the season debut was a lot tougher against a potent Milwaukee Brewers lineup. Today, he’ll go head-to-head with San Diego Padres’ little-known rookie Nick Margevicius, who had an impressive debut, albeit, against a weak San Francisco Giants’ lineup. It’s too early to pinpoint the outlook on Margevicius, considering he has only made two starts above the Single-A level – one in Double-A, one in MLB – but it is worth noting that his control has been quite magnificent early on in his minor-league career.

With all that being said, the moment of the Cards’ home opener at Busch Stadium could prove to be too much for the young lefty. Not only that, but Flaherty should improve greatly from his season debut and have a great performance against a Padres’ lineup that hasn’t been that impressive on offense.

Cardinals on the moneyline is the play here…

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 5 – San Diego Padres: 2

[4:35 p.m. EST] Tampa Bay Rays at San Francisco Giants – Total: 7
TB: Tyler Glasnow – R (1-0, 1.80 ERA)
SF: Dereck Rodriguez – R (1-0, 3.60 ERA)

This is an excellent matchup of young hurlers taking place at Oracle Park today, between Tyler Glasnow of the Tampa Bay Rays and Dereck Rodriguez of the San Francisco Giants. Not only that, but neither team’s offense has really gotten off to a great start either.

It may be simple, and it may be short, but there is just one trend in this game that you can’t ignore. Especially, when the game is being played in San Francisco – a place where offense go to die.

That trend, you were asking for? All seven of the Rays’ games have gone under the total, while five of the seven Giants’ games have suffered the same fate.

Under seven runs is the play here, and I’ll give the Giants the win in their home opener. What a nice guy I am…

* Final Score Prediction: San Francisco Giants: 4 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2