Tag: Houston Astros

MLB & NBA Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 59-38-4 (61%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -230) at Detroit Tigers
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (6-1, 2.51 ERA/0.82 WHIP)
DET: Gregory Soto – L (0-1, 15.75 ERA/2.75 WHIP)

So, this is awkward. Justin Verlander will return to the only MLB city he called home before accepting a trade to Houston back in 2017.

Verlander has been absolutely phenomenal this season, allowing one run or fewer in six of his nine starts, while Detroit’s offense ranks near the bottom of MLB in nearly every advanced metric against right-handed pitching. Over the last 14 days, the Tigers have well below-average numbers in the same split.

This just isn’t going to end well for Detroit, losers of the first two games in this series by a combined score of 19-5. Houston’s offense is rocking and rolling over the last four games, with a total of 45 runs – the same amount as Miami has scored since April 21. Not to mention, the Astros’ offense ranks near the top of MLB in nearly every advanced metric, while owning absolutely gorgeous numbers against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

I talked about it yesterday, but it’s quite telling when you see a team with zaftig juice on the 1.5-run line. The Astros are listed at -230 in that regard, in comparison to the -350 moneyline odds. Also, the IRTs for both teams are unlike anything you’ll ever see, as the Astros are at 6.7 while the Tigers are at 3.5 – that type of differential is a once-in-a-lifetime sort of thing.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 10 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[8:00 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 (-120) – Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals
TEX: Mike Minor – L (3-3, 2.68 ERA/1.04 WHIP)
KC: Jorge Lopez – R (0-4, 6.07 ERA/1.49 WHIP)

The highest SK Trend Confidence rating of the night in MLB is the under in this game, and that makes plenty of sense with Mike Minor on the mound for the Rangers. The made-over lefty has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts and even held his own against the hottest lineup in baseball during his last start against the Astros.

KC has not fared well against left-handed pitching this season, owning the fourth-worst weighted on-base average (wOBA: .281) in that split. Not to mention, things haven’t gotten any better over the last 14 days.

While Jorge Lopez has given up a decent number of runs, he has gone at least six innings in five of the last seven outings. The Rangers’ offense hasn’t been particularly great against right-handed pitching, with a combined .274 wOBA over the last 14 days.

Minor is clearly the better pitcher here, so I expect him to get the win. Lopez can at least hold his own for a while and not let this thing get out of hand.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 6 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

[8:30 p.m. EST] Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5, -115)

We’ve got some NBA action for the people tonight! The top SK Trend Confidence rating is on the Bucks with the 6.5-point spread, considering they have covered eight of their nine games during the playoffs. I typically don’t bet many NBA games prior to tip-off, opting for the live bets, but tonight is a special occasion.

The Bucks’ roster is miles ahead of the Raptors, who are coming off an emotionally-draining seven-games series against the 76ers. Just as we saw last night in the Trail Blazers-Warriors matchup, Portland wasn’t able to muster enough energy for its new opponent. There’s something to be said about carrying over the same intensity from one series to another – it’s remarkably tough and takes time to make the necessary adjustments.

When looking at Toronto’s roster, there’s not much there. Kawhi Leonard is basically all the Raptors have working for them, and that was evident towards the end of that last series. Sure, Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry are fine players, but it didn’t even look like they wanted to touch the ball down the stretch of Game 7 against Philly.

Look for the Bucks to neutralize Kawhi and make the other role-playing Raptors beat them. Bucks big! #FearTheDear

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks: 102 – Toronto Raptors: 82 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 14

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 56-38-4 (60%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -144) at Detroit Tigers
HOU: Wade Miley – L (3-2, 3.18 ERA)
DET: Ryan Carpenter – L (0-1, 10.80 ERA)

Ryan Carpenter doesn’t have much MLB experience, but it hasn’t been good. After getting ripped for six runs in five innings during his season debut on Thursday, that upped Carpenter’s WHIP to 1.72 and an opposing batting average of .356 over 27 1/3 career innings of work. Yikes!

We always look at these IRT increases because they tell a story about the game before the first pitch has even been thrown. The Astros rank in the top three of nearly every advanced metric against left-handed pitching. Hence, why they had the highest IRT (5.6) at the open and now the biggest increase (+0.7) moving them to 6.3 – a full run more than three teams tied for second-most at 5.2.

Wade Miley should get plenty of run support from the Houston offense, which is always a benefit pitching for this team. The Astros have won the lefty’s last four starts by a combined score of 32-9, with all of them coming by two runs or more. Miley has four quality starts in his last five outings, and in the only misnomer, he went 5 2/3 innings and allowed one run.

The Astros are going to tear these Tigers apart, as evidenced by the massive -144 juice on the 1.5-run line.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 11 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 – Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins
TB: Charlie Morton – R (3-0, 2.64 ERA)
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (3-0, 2.11 ERA)

Both of these pitchers have been outstanding this season with a sub-three ERA and we’ve got the advanced metrics to prove how effective they’ll be tonight.

The Rays have the highest K-rate (30.6%) against left-handed pitching, while Caleb Smith has a 0.89 WHIP and 56 strikeouts over 42 2/3 innings. Any questions?

The Marlins have the highest K-rate (27.1%) with the lowest wOBA (.263), wRC+ (65) and ISO (.089) against right-handed pitching. Charlie Morton has been more hittable than Smith, but he’s allowed two runs or fewer in all but one of his eight starts this season. It never gets old ripping on Miami’s offense, which has posted two runs or fewer in eight of its last nine games.

I get it, taking the under on 6.5 runs will be about two-to-three hours of nervous reckoning, but you should have plenty of confidence with Morton and Smith going toe-to-toe.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 3 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals (-138 ML, 1.5-run line: +132)
TEX: Shelby Miller – R (1-2, 7.48 ERA)
KC: Danny Duffy – L (1-1, 3.06 ERA)

It’s quite telling to see the Royals in that grouping of teams tied for the second-highest IRT (5.2) on the slate. There’s a good reason, though, as the Rangers will have Shelby Miller on the mound. Miller does have a massive 1.92 WHIP and Kansas City has above-average advanced metrics against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. KC can beat up on Miller early and then get to the Texas bullpen, which has the sixth-highest xFIP (4.64) in all of baseball over the last 14 days.

Danny Duffy gets himself a fantastic matchup here too, as the Rangers have the third-highest K-rate (28.4%) against left-handed pitching this season. Not only that, but Texas is striking out at a 34.9% clip against lefties over the last 14 days.

I could go either way here on the moneyline or 1.5-run line with KC. You don’t have to risk much on the moneyline and it’s a nice little plus-score on the 1.5-run line.

* Final Score Prediction: Kansas City Royals: 7 – Texas Rangers: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, May 10

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 53-37-4 (59%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 11 (-102) – Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
LAA: Trevor Cahill – R (1-3, 6.95 ERA/1.46 WHIP)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-2, 7.43 ERA/1.87 WHIP)

To say Dan Straily isn’t enjoying his time at Camden Yards would be the understatement of the century. The veteran righty has allowed a 2.57 WHIP and eight homers over 14 innings of work there this season – somebody give this man a hug. Mike Trout (9-for-20, 2 doubles, HR), Albert Pujols (10-for-21, double, 2 HR) and Kole Calhoun (3-for-10, double, HR) will sure as hell be happy to see Straily out there tonight.

It should be no surprise that the Angels opened with the highest IRT (5.6) on tonight’s slate, but it has increased drastically up to 6.4 currently. Los Halos’ moneyline increase, from -152 to -178, is one of the highest on the entire day as well.

We dissected Straily’s awful life enough but let’s not leave Trevor Cahill out of the mix either, considering he’s allowed a 2.10 WHIP, 19 runs and nine homers over his last 15 2/3 innings of work. In those last four Cahill outings, the total runs scored have gone something like this: 16, 16, 11, 19. In the words of Dr. Evil, “Riiiiiiiiight.”

This is also the first 11-run total we’ve seen at Camden Yards this season, and there’s a damn good reason for it. We’ve got more than enough evidence here to support numerous cleats touching home plate this evening.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 10 – Baltimore Orioles: 8 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Texas Rangers at Houston Astros (-1.5, -128)
TEX: Lance Lynn – R (4-2, 5.75 ERA/1.57 WHIP)
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (5-1, 2.86 ERA/0.87 WHIP)

They don’t make pitchers like Justin Verlander anymore. For most guys, it’s all about pitch counts and saving innings to make sure they’ve got enough left in the tank at the end of the season. Not Verlander, who has thrown at least 94 pitches in every outing this year.

Like many other teams, the Rangers have had a difficult time figuring out one of the best pitchers in the game. This current roster has a 32.1% K-rate against Verlander and a very similar 32.6% whiff rate lifetime. While Texas did attribute to his worst outing this season (and it wasn’t even THAT bad), Verlander followed that up with a masterful seven-inning performance against them in the next meeting.

Over his last 30 outings, Verlander has never had two non-quality starts in back-to-back appearances on the mound. In simpler terms, this guy just doesn’t suck… after sucking. Verlander did allow four runs in his last start, so look for him to dominate in a familiar matchup that has been quite favorable before.

Lance Lynn takes the mound for the Rangers, and he hasn’t been at his best of late. His best outing recently came against a Mariners team that had their heads in the sand for that whole weekend. If we look past that game, Lynn has allowed at least 10 baserunners and had three strikeouts or fewer in three of his last four outings.

The Astros have the best 1.5 run-line odds of any team on tonight’s slate and it shouldn’t be a huge surprise with Verlander on the mound. Not to mention, Houston ranks at the top of nearly every advanced metric against right-handed pitching and Lynn has been getting hit more frequently by right-handed bats, which the Astros have plenty of.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 6 – Texas Rangers: 1 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (-1.5, -112)
DET: Tyson Ross – R (1-4, 5.34 ERA/1.62 WHIP)
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (4-2, 2.78 ERA/1.09 WHIP)

This could end up being the biggest mismatch of the night, so let’s take advantage of it. Good, great, grand, wonderful… everybody on the bus!

Jake Odorizzi has been filthy over his last four starts for the Twins, allowing only three runs over the last 24 1/3 innings – in the last two starts (vs. HOU, @NYY), he has pitched 13 scoreless innings, allowing six hits and five walks (0.85 WHIP) ball while striking out 15. The Tigers have struck out at a 29% clip against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days and that lines up perfectly their bottom-five advanced metrics in MLB against righties in nearly every category this season.

Tyson Ross goes for the Tigers, and he’s had some back issues to deal with of late. That could be a big reason for allowing 21 hits over his last 12 1/3 innings of work. Not only that, but the Tigers have lost each of his last two starts by a combined score of 26-7. Add in the fact that they lost 13-0 yesterday and you can pick up what I’m putting down. On the flip side, the Twins have won their last three games by a combined score of 20-1.

While we’re piling on Detroit, let’s not forget to mention that Minnesota’s .237 ISO (power metric) against right-handed pitching ranks first in all of baseball this season, and over the last 14 days it’s actually at .288 in that split – for reference, a .200 ISO is good and about .175 is the league average.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 7 – Detroit Tigers: 1 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, May 9

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 50-35-4 (59%) *

[6:35 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
SEA: Mike Leake – R (2-3, 4.91 ERA/1.51 WHIP)
NYY: J.A. Happ – L (1-3, 4.93 ERA/1.28 WHIP)

The finale of a four-game set takes place in The Bronx tonight, with each of the previous three reaching at least nine runs. I feel like we’ll see more of the same in this game, as both pitchers have some major trends working against them.

Mike Leake takes the mound for the Mariners and hasn’t been his best of late, allowing 23 hits, 16 runs (12 earned) and six homers over the last 17 innings. Right-handed batters have been ripping Leake to the tune of a .373 batting average, .391 on-base percentage, .716 slugging percentage and 1.108 OPS in 69 plate appearances this season. The Yanks’ projected lineup has seven righties in it tonight, including the first six. Not to mention, Seattle’s 41 errors (most in all of MLB, nine more than the three teams tied for second-most) could certainly lead to more runs for New York.

J.A. Happ hasn’t been at his best of late either, especially at home. The lefty is 0-3 with a 7.65 ERA in four starts at Yankee Stadium, with seven homers allowed in 20 innings and an opposing .321 batting average. In comparison, Happ is 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA in three road starts, with two homers allowed in 18 1/3 innings and an opposing .194 batting average. While the Mariners’ bats haven’t been rocking and rolling like they were over the first 15 games, they still rank in the top five of most advanced metrics against left-handed pitching.

The total has gone over in 12 of the last 16 (with one push) Mariners’ games while the Yanks have done the same in 12 of the last 17.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 7 – Seattle Mariners: 5 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Texas Rangers (+144) at Houston Astros
TEX: Mike Minor – L (3-2, 2.40 ERA/0.95 WHIP)
HOU: Wade Miley – L (2-2, 3.20 ERA/1.17 WHIP)

These matchups for the Lone Star Series get kind of wild, just as we saw back in April. However, wild in tonight’s sense means a pitcher’s duel, considering these teams have been posting a lot of overs lately.

Mike Minor looks like a new man, especially of late, as he’s gone at least seven innings in five of the last six starts – he has also posted 22 strikeouts over the last 15 innings. Houston has had plenty of struggles against Minor, as he’s notched a quality start in each of the last four meetings, including seven innings of scoreless ball en route to a win back in early April. The Astros could definitely struggle with Minor once again, considering these well below-average advanced metrics they’ve had against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

I can’t believe my eyes, but Wade Miley is actually turning into a well-rounded pitcher as well. The veteran lefty has been quite serviceable with three quality starts over his last four outings – the only misnomer he was one out shy. A few of these Rangers’ bats have had more success against lefties of late, so look for Miley to be slightly less effective than Minor.

The SK Trend Confidence rating is very high on the Rangers and the total going under in this game, and I whole-heartedly agree. Minor is at the top of his game right now, while I can definitely see Miley coming back down to Earth any day now. Today, being that day now.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 5 – Houston Astros: 2 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (2-1, 3.71 ERA/1.12 WHIP)
LAD: Rich Hill – L (0-0, 3.60 ERA/1.30 WHIP)

We’ve got a nice matchup of southpaws going down at Chavez Ravine tonight. Both teams have IRTs (implied run totals) below four runs that currently moving downward as we speak. Oh yes, I’m taking the under on this one.

Patrick Corbin has seen plenty of the Dodgers from his time with the Diamondbacks and only Justin Turner (12-for-29, three doubles, two homers) and Austin Barnes (3-for-10, two homers) have given him much trouble in this matchup. Turner is rocking and rolling at the moment, but he’s only one man. I wouldn’t be too worried about Barnes and his .120 batting average against lefties this season – miss me with that.

Aside from one bad game against a heavy right-handed Cardinals’ lineup, Corbin has notched a quality start in each of his other six outings this season. Given the atrocious nature of the Nats bullpen, you have to think Corbin mans up in this game and takes it at least seven innings for his club.

Rich Hill gets a juicy matchup against a Nationals team dealing with numerous injuries to significant offensive players. Hence, a big reason why they’ve scored three runs or fewer in 11 of the last 13 games. If that wasn’t enough, Washington’s projected lineup for tonight has a 27.7% K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

While Hill will likely only pitch about five innings (six at most), the Dodgers’ bullpen owns the fourth-best SIERA and fifth-best xFIP in all of baseball over the last 14 days. Look for Los Angeles to win a close game late in this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 3 – Washington Nationals: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 8

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 48-34-3 (58.5%) *

[6:10 p.m. EST] Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (-1.5, +108)
CHW: Reynaldo Lopez – R (2-4, 6.69 ERA/1.76 WHIP)
CLE: Shane Bieber – R (2-1, 3.16 ERA/1.03 WHIP)

OK, enough is enough already with these White Sox taking games against the Indians. Chicago got the first two games of this series and now trot out Reynaldo Lopez and his 1.76 WHIP, which ranks second-worst of any starting pitcher in baseball with at least 30 innings under his belt. If Cleveland ever had a pitcher to break out of its recent offensive funk, Lopez is certainly the guy to help out.

The Tribe is rolling out Shane Bieber, who has notched a quality start in five of his last six outings. While the White Sox did hang nine runs on Monday night against Trevor Bauer, they have scored two runs or fewer in four of the last five games.

Call this revenge, call this a team that’s due – call it what you will. The Indians are going to make up for their recent misfortunes in a big way today.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 6 – Chicago White Sox: 2 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (-1.5, -166) at Baltimore Orioles
BOS: Chris Sale – L (5.25 ERA/1.28 WHIP)
BAL: Andrew Cashner – R (4.71 ERA/1.46 WHIP)

The Red Sox have the highest moneyline increase (-245 to -281) on the slate and massive -166 odds on the 1.5 run-line. Needless to say, things are shaping up nicely for the defending champs on the road tonight.

Chris Sale is coming off his best outing of the season – no coincidence that it came against his former team – as he pitched six innings of scoreless ball with 10 strikeouts. The lanky lefty is 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA in seven starts against the Orioles since he joined the Red Sox. Not to mention, Baltimore has the lowest IRT (3.1) on the slate and have struck out at a zaftig 27.3% clip against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Andrew Cashner takes the mound for Bird Gang, and he’s been prone to have a surprisingly good outing every now and again. Luckily, his outings don’t last too long, with only two of his seven starts going for six innings or more. That’s good news, considering the Orioles bullpen has the worst ERA (6.13) in the American League and second-worst in all of baseball.

I expect the Red Sox to get off to a slow start offensively and then finally hammer this thing home late, with Sale, of course, keeping the Orioles off the scoreboard for most of the night. The SK Trend Confidence for the Red Sox on the 1.5 run-line is one of the highest on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros (-1.5, -110)
KC: Jorge Lopez – R (0-3, 5.09 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
HOU: Brad Peacock – R (2-2, 5.28 ERA/1.21 WHIP)

The Astros got rolled up and smoked in front of their home fans last night, so I’d expect them to come out with a focused mindset this evening. Houston ranks in the top five of MLB in nearly every advanced metric against right-handed pitching, so there’s no surprise that its 5.7 IRT is the highest on tonight’s slate.

Royals pitcher Jorge Lopez hasn’t fared well of late, allowing four runs in each of his last four starts. If that wasn’t bad enough, Kansas City has lost six of his seven starts this season.

Brad Peacock takes the mound for Houston, and he just simply hasn’t been at his best this season, as was evident in that last start against the Twins. While we don’t look at the Royals as a powerhouse offense, they’re a pesky bunch that gets the job done in a variety of ways. Hell, they did just post 12 runs last night.

I feel like the Astros on the 1.5 run-line is a solid play, but the over is what really grabs my attention.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 7 – Kansas City Royals: 5 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, May 5

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 44-32-2 (58%) *

[1:05 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 – Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
TB: Ryne Stanek – R (0-1, 2.81 ERA)
BAL: John Means – L (3-3, 2.81 ERA)

Light rain is expected to fall throughout the entire game today, which will likely keep the offenses at bay quite a bit. Vegas already thinks so, as the Rays (-0.6) and Orioles (-0.4) have the largest- and third-largest IRT decreases on the entire slate.

Johns Means is getting a matchup against a normally-stout Rays offense, but they do have the highest K-rate (30.1%) against left-handed pitching this season. Tampa did go without a hit from the second-to-seventh innings in last night’s game and was only blanked on the scoreboard for the second time this season.

I’m usually a big fan of the Rays whenever they get to play the matchups in their patented “bullpen games.” The rain, however, does throw things off a bit, as Tampa hasn’t necessarily detailed its plan to the public just yet. All in all, though, these matchups are typically a good thing. Especially against an Orioles offense that has scored three runs or fewer in six of the last eight games.

Lastly, the weather is our friend here. If the rain does end up becoming problematic, it’s possible that the game gets called earlier than in nine innings. That would be music to our ears, as fewer innings would likely lead to fewer runs.

* Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles: 3 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2 *

[1:35 p.m. EST] Under 8 – Oakland A’s at Pittsburgh Pirates
OAK: Frankie Montas – R (4-2, 2.97 ERA)
PIT: Jordan Lyles – R (2-1, 2.42 ERA)

Vegas has already spoken on this game with IRT decreases (Pirates: -0.6, A’s: -0.4) for both sides. However, what’s great here is that the game-total only dropped a half-run down to 8.0, not 7.5. Thanks, Vegas!

Frankie Montas and Jordan Lyles are two of the more underrated pitchers in baseball, so I look forward to these two showcasing their talents. Both teams rank in the bottom-third of wOBA (weighted on-base percentage) and wRC+ (weighted created-runs plus) against right-handed pitching, thus giving further evidence that this should be a low-scoring game.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland A’s: 4 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

[4:00 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-1.5, -148) at Los Angeles Angels
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (4-1, 2.45 ERA)
LAA: Matt Harvey – R (1-2, 6.54 ERA)

The current Angels’ lineup has a combined .169 batting average, .240 on-base percentage and .542 OPS lifetime against Justin Verlander – yikes! In fact, not one of them has a batting average over .300 in this matchup.

Matt Harvey takes the mound for the Halos, and he’s pitched well in each of his last two starts. However, one of those was against a Yankees team that traveled across the country and a Royals offense that just isn’t all that threatening.

Vegas isn’t buying Harvey’s recent success either, as the 1.5 run-line has favorable -146 juice on it. Not to mention, the Astros moneyline increase from -185 to -235 is BY FAR the largest on the entire slate. And speaking of increases, Houston’s IRT increase of 5.3 to 6.0 is also the largest for any team today.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 7 – Los Angeles Angels: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, April 29

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[7:10 p.m. EST] Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets (-1.5, +122)
CIN: Tanner Roark – R (1-1, 3.24 ERA)
NYM: Zack Wheeler – R (2-2, 4.85 ERA)

The key to success for Zack Wheeler this season has been simple – don’t face the Nationals.
* WSH (twice): allowed 10 hits, 8 walks and 11 runs with 9 Ks over 9 2/3 innings
* PHI (twice)/ATL: allowed 16 hits, 6 walks and 5 runs with 24 Ks over 20 innings

Wheeler registered a quality start in each of the last three outings. His most impressive effort came in that last outing against the Phillies, throwing seven innings of a shutout ball while striking out 11 – a season high. Tonight, the Reds’ -0.4 IRT (implied run total) decrease is the largest on the board, and that’s just a further indicator that Wheeler is locked and loaded for his matchup.

Tanner Roark will face a familiar opponent, just doing in a different jersey this time around. The former Nationals pitcher has an 8-4 record with a 3.07 ERA in 22 appearances (16 starts) against the Mets lifetime. In fact, Roark has pitched very well in his last three starts, allowing only earned run in each of those.

Unlike the game you’ll read about below, I have more confidence in the Mets -1.5 run-line because of the recent performance of these respective bullpens. In terms of those fancy advanced metrics we all hate/love so much, the Mets’ bullpen ranks first in xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) and second in SIERA (skill-interactive earned run average) over the last seven days – The Reds rank ninth-worst in xFIP and fifth-worst in SIERA over the same span.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 5 – Cincinnati Reds: 1 *

[7:20 p.m. EST] San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves (-164)
SD: Nick Margevicius – L (2-2, 3.60 ERA)
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (1-1, 1.69 ERA)

Lots of good trends for the Braves in this game, so let’s get a tomahawk chant going! The trends that stood out above all:
* Braves moneyline increase from -140 to -164 – highest on the slate
* Braves have the highest wOBA [weighted on-base average]: (.391) vs left-handed pitching
* Padres have the third-highest K-rate (27%) vs right-handed pitching

Mike Soroka takes the hill for Atlanta, and he has been fantastic in each of those two starts this season. The young righty has allowed only two runs over 10 2/3 innings while fanning 13 batters in the process.

Nick Margevicius goes for San Diego, and he is also another talented young hurler. However, his 1.08 WHIP looks a lot prettier due to two matchups against the Giants. In fact, Margevicius has come back down to Earth over the last two starts (vs. SEA, vs. COL), allowing 11 hits, six walks and seven runs over his last nine innings.

I would love to go with the Braves on the -1.5 run-line, but their bullpen is an absolute disaster right now. Without boring the non-traditional baseball fan to death, one of the best metrics (SIERRA) ranks Atlanta’s bullpen as the second-worst in MLB. For that reason, we’ll keep it simple with the ATL moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 5 – San Diego Padres: 4 *

[7:40 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-1.5, -108) at Minnesota Twins
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (4-0, 2.61 ERA)
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (2-2, 4.37 ERA)

Sure, the Twins lead MLB in homers per game (1.96) but they’ve had six matchups against Orioles’ pitching to thank for that. Tonight, Minnesota will face one of the best pitchers in baseball who has absolutely owned this current lineup.

Justin Verlander has held the Twins’ current roster to a combined .167 batting average, .210 on-base percentage, .325 slugging percentage and .535 OBP – yikes! In fact, the veteran righty just held Minnesota to one run while striking out eight batters over eight innings in his last outing. Verlander has allowed four or fewer hits in four of his six starts, including each of the last three. Not to mention, if Verlander slips in the slightest, the Astros’ bullpen ranks first in SIERA and xFIP this season.

All in all, this is just a flat-out mismatch of talent between the two starting pitchers this evening. Granted, Odorizzi did get the win in his last outing against these same Astros, but he did allow eight hits and found himself in trouble for most of the evening. I expect Houston to make him pay for those misfortunes this time around.

I’m going with the -1.5 run-line in this game because of that mismatch of starting pitchers, and the Astros have won by two runs or more in four of Verlander’s six starts this season.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 6 – Minnesota Twins: 2 *

[9:45 p.m. EST] Over 8 – Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
LAD: Kenta Maeda – R (3-2, 5.20 ERA)
SF: Jeff Samardzija – R (2-1, 3.00 ERA)

Giants’ pitching was absolutely ripped in the three-game series against the Yankees over the weekend, allowing 24 runs, and life won’t get any easier with the Dodgers coming to town. Oracle Park is one of the worst venues for offense in all of MLB, hence why we’ve only seen one eight-run total there this season. The eight-run total in this game is quite interesting, considering it never got any higher than 7.5 in the three-game series at Dodger Stadium at the beginning of the month, but there is some solid reasoning to think we’ll see the fourth straight total go over the mark at Oracle Park.

The Dodgers do have the second-best wOBA (.356) vs right-handed pitching this season and three of the last four games that Jeff Samardzija has pitched in produced a double-digit number of runs.

On the flip side, the Giants have four batters with a .294 lifetime average or better against Kenta Maeda. Just like Samardzija, Maeda’s starts have been producing a lot of runs, with four of the five surrendering nine runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 5 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, April 22

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

We had some great data on the Mets-Phillies and Red Sox-Tigers games for Monday night. Unfortunately, those games look like they’ll be completely washed out by the rain. But don’t you worry, folks. Spread Knowledge will move past the inclement weather and find this MLB goodness for the people!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays
KC: Brad Keller – R (2-1, 2.64 ERA)
TB: Yonny Chirinos – R (3-0, 3.26 ERA)

The total on this game has fallen off a cliff from 8.5 to 7.5, with both teams’ IRT subsequently decreasing as well – Rays: -0.7, Royals: -0.4. A big reason for that is because Rays’ outfielder Austin Meadows landing on the injured list, and that’ll certainly hurt this team which has lost four straight games.

Although I don’t think Meadows’ injury is the end of the world, Vegas certainly seems to think there won’t be many runs in this game. Brad Keller (1.17 WHIP) and Yonny Chirinos (0.83 WHIP) have both done a fantastic job of keeping runners off the basepaths this season, thus giving more evidence to the under in this game.

We’ll keep it short and sweet on this one, giving the Rays the advantage because of their bullpen.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 4 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (1-2, 4.76 ERA)
HOU: Brad Peacock – R (2-0, 3.94 ERA)

The Implied Run Total (IRT) has jumped up a bit in favor of both teams – Astros: +0.3, Twins: +0.2 – and there’s plenty of artillery to go around to justify such an increase. An Astros’ array of arms that allowed two runs or fewer in five straight games, suddenly coughed up a total of 20 runs in two games over the weekend against the Rangers.

Brad Peacock takes the hill for Houston, and he is typically not someone that will go deep into games. The Astros’ bullpen has been a bit overworked here these last two days, thus setting the scene for a tough battle against the Twins tonight. Not to mention, Peacock is 0-2 with a 4.05 ERA over his career in seven appearances against Minnesota.

Jake Odorizzi goes for the Twins, and while the righty does own a 3-1 mark and 2.12 ERA in five career starts against the Astros, he did get roughed up for six runs and nine hits over 10 2/3 innings against them last season. Minnesota’s bullpen had a busy weekend itself, playing a doubleheader in Baltimore on Saturday and then using three of its better relievers for an inning yesterday.

All of those factors, combined with an Astros’ offense that scored at least seven runs in four of the last five games, make this an appealing bet on the over.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 7 – Minnesota Twins: 5 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels (-104)
NYY: J.A. Happ – L (0-2, 7.23 ERA)
LAA: Matt Harvey – R (0-2, 9.64 ERA)

We could easily call this a logistics nightmare for the Yankees, having to fly all the way across the country after playing a Sunday afternoon game, while the Angels stayed put in Southern California. But have you seen what the Yanks’ lineup is going to look like without Aaron Judge? Yikes!

While Matt Harvey is not the same guy from the days of being labeled the “Dark Knight,” I do think this is an opportune time for him to get back on the good foot. After all, Harvey’s four starts this season have been against solid offenses of the Rangers (twice), Brewers and Athletics, the latter of which was his best. Given the Yanks’ itinerary ahead of tonight’s matchup, I feel like Harvey has an outing that is good enough to get the Halos the victory.

J.A. Happ has not lived up to the billing for the Yankees this season, but he did finally make it out of the fifth inning in his last – something he was unable to do in the first three starts. It’s still worth noting, however, that Happ has allowed six home runs in 18 2/3 innings of work this season — and that’s against the Orioles (twice), White Sox and Red Sox. It’s possible that Happ is motivated to pitch much better with a B- or C-list roster behind him, but I still feel like the Angels are the more talented team in this current-day scenario.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 4 – New York Yankees: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Plays for Friday, April 19

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

MLB Betting Value Plays

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8 – Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (1-2, 7.98 ERA)
TB: Ryne Stanek – R (0-0, 1.93 ERA)

We talked about it the other day, but these Rays’ bullpens games have become a real burden on opposing offenses over the last couple of seasons. Ryne Stanek will “start” his fifth game of the season, second this week, but only go one or two innings before handing it off the bullpen with the fourth-best ERA (3.56) in the American League.

It will be interesting, though, to see how that Tampa Bay bullpen comes back one night after losing the finale of its three-game series against Baltimore. The Rays had a bullpen game on Thursday and wound up using six different relievers in the loss. Luckily, the Red Sox offense has been uncharacteristically stagnant this week, scoring a total of eight runs over the last four games.

Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound for Boston, and he’s coming off his best start of the season. The young lefty has been roughed up in two road starts to open the 2019 campaign, but everyone is well-aware that Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL in basically Fenway Park South. Not to mention, it’s an indoor environment that pitchers absolutely love.

The key here is the Implied Run Totals (IRT) for the two teams, which have both decreased by -0.3 each. When a decrease of that magnitude happens for both sides, it’s usually a great sign for the pitchers. It’s also worth noting that each of the last four Boston games has landed under the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 4 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 8.5 – Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
CHW: Carlos Rodon – L (2-2, 3.57 ERA)
DET: Jordan Zimmermann (0-2, 4.29 ERA)

Temperatures will be in the low 40s tonight in Detroit, but the wind will be blowing out to right-center field at a whopping 19 mph during the game. I’ve got nothing but love for conditions like that and Vegas has already taken notice, jumping the IRT up for both teams (White Sox: +0.4, Tigers: +0.6) and the game total an entire run, from 7.5 to 8.5. All the trends we look for on a daily basis are right there for the taking, and we’ll do exactly that.

It also helps that the White Sox have hit Jordan Zimmermann very well of the course of time, with their current roster owning a collective .311 batting average and .896 OPS against him.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 8 – Detroit Tigers: 4 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins (+104)
WSH: Anibal Sanchez – R (0-1, 4.86 ERA)
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (1-0, 2.65 ERA)

I’m going with the upset here, even though Vegas doesn’t think that it’ll be much of one. Miami’s moneyline had an increase of +21 (+125 to +104) and Washington’s had a decrease of -23 (-135 to -112) – respectively, two of the highest shifts on tonight’s slate, in separate directions.

Caleb Smith takes the hill for the Marlins, and he has been outstanding this season against stiff NL East competition. The dazzling lefty owns a 0.88 WHIP and has yet to allow a home run at Marlins Park in 11 innings of work.

Miami hasn’t been winning a lot of games but tonight’s moneyline odds are the best it has seen all season. Usually, that’s a good sign of things to come. Not to mention, Washington’s bullpen ranks dead-last in all of MLB – more than about 1.5 runs worse than Baltimore. Yikes!

Fish for the upset!

* Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins: 4 – Washington Nationals: 1 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-1.5, -140/-225 ML) at Texas Rangers
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (2-0, 3.52 ERA)
TEX: Drew Smyly – L (0-1, 7.15 ERA)

Last, but certainly not least, Justin Verlander is up to his usual shtick. The veteran righty owns a 1.04 WHIP and 30 strikeouts over 23 innings of work. Tonight, Verlander faces a Rangers team whose current roster owns a collective .286 on-base percentage and 31.8% K-rate against him.

Drew Smyly goes for the Rangers, and he’ll have his hands full against a very heavy right-handed lineup that can rip the ball all over Globe Life Park – one of the best yards for hitters in all of MLB. The Astros just had their 10-game winning streak snapped, in which they had a run differential of +29 in that span, with five of those last six victories coming by more than one run. You do get some relief by taking them as favorites on the 1.5-run line, as opposed to laying -225 on the moneyline.

I’d look for Houston to get back on the good foot tonight, especially with the pitching matchup having such a wide gap of credibility.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 7 – Texas Rangers: 2 *

NBA Playoffs & MLB Value Bets for Tuesday, April 16

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* NBA PLAYOFFS *

[9:00 p.m. EST] Under 210 – San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets

The Spurs did their job and got the road win in Game 1, so they can basically take the night off for the sake of us bettors. After all, this is pretty much how a series goes if the underdog wins the opener on the road – The underdog usually gets rolled in Game 2 – See: Brooklyn Nets last night. And don’t let the score in that 76ers/Nets game fool you, because the Nuggets and Spurs simply don’t have that type of offensive firepower.

The best value play in this game is taking the under. Dating back to the regular season, 17 of San Antonio’s last 22 games have gone under the total, while Denver’s games also have a track record of not going over the total, suffering that fate in 22 of its last 32.

While it looks like the Spurs could very well get their doors blown off, SK has more confidence in this one going under the total. If you’re a fan of prop bets, taking the under of 101.5 points for the Spurs’ team total would also be a wise move.

[10:30 p.m. EST] Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers (-114 ML)

The highest SK Trend Confidence (32%) on tonight’s NBA slate is Portland to win outright once again over OKC. Everyone figured the Thunder would easily win Game 1, considering they went 4-0 against the Trail Blazers during the regular season. Not to mention, Russell Westbrook has outplayed Damian Lillard in the head-to-head sense over the course of their careers.

However, the tide turned in the series opener, and that was with Portland not necessarily playing its best brand of basketball. Thankfully, the Trail Blazers had a 14-point lead at the end of the first quarter, and that allowed them to hold on for the five-point victory at the end.

OKC’s Westbrook (ankle) and Paul George (shoulder) are both a little banged up, and neither of them has completely dismissed the fact that these injuries will be an issue. If that truly is the case, the Thunder could be looking at an 0-2 hole heading back to OKC – and the SK Trend Confidence believes that will be the case.

* MLB REGULAR SEASON GAMES *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-250 ML/-1.5)
BAL: Dylan Bundy – R (0-1, 8.76 ERA)
TB: Tyler Glasnow – R (3-0, 0.53)

Betting MLB games like this one is usually what we look for – pitchers trending in opposite directions. Tyler Glasnow of the Rays is off to an amazing start, allowing only one run in 17 innings, while striking out 21 batters and walking three. On the other side, Dylan Bundy goes for the Orioles, and he has been absolutely horrendous, allowing 12 runs in 12.1 innings. Bundy has racked up 17 strikeouts so far but that has been nullified by a massive 1.78 WHIP.

The Rays currently have the best winning percentage in all of MLB and are showing no signs of slowing down. Especially with a fantastic matchup against Bundy on the horizon.

Tampa Bay on the moneyline has a nice SK Trend Confidence rating of 30%. But it might make more sense to bet the Rays on the 1.5-run line (SK Trend Confidence rating of 26%) so you don’t have to risk as much money.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 8 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-160 ML) at Oakland Athletics
HOU: Collin McHugh – R (2-1, 2.65 ERA)
OAK: Marco Estrada – R (0-1, 4.87 ERA)

The Astros will be looking to win their 10th consecutive game when they meet the A’s and if history is any indication, that shouldn’t be a problem. Collin McHugh has gone 9-1 with a 2.73 ERA in 18 appearances (12 starts) against Oakland over the course of his career. Not only that, but Houston’s bullpen has been outstanding at the onset, ranking third in all of MLB with a 2.70 ERA. The A’s bullpen has been responsible for five of the team’s losses, including four blown saves.

Houston’s offense is usually deadly, and this year is no different as it leads MLB with a collective .280 batting average. The Astros’ 32% SK Trend Confidence rating is the highest of any team on the moneyline tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 6 – Oakland Athletics: 4 *